NBA on TNT "TRUE STEAM"
NBA on TNT "TRUE STEAM"
NBA on TNT "TRUE STEAM"
Alright gentlemen...we are now "39-21" (65% ATS) on "TRUE STEAM" for 2009-2010...And after a "4-0" SWEEP last night, I really feel that our ratings/numbers are as sharp as ever...And I feel so good at how well we are running in all sports currently, that I'm going to pass along a bet on tonight's marquee match-up...So tonight, we are going to try and get WIN #40 by taking advantage of another "Prime-Time" Televised Game...
Truth is, I have always felt that these "Prime-Time" games offer up some of the biggest edges as far as "Line-Value" is concerned...Because there are no other games, where the oddsmakers have to account more heavily for "Public Perception"...than these televised marquee match-ups...Reason being, they will almost always receive the most betting action...And it's on these games, that the "Public Money", far out-weighs the "Wiseguy Money"...So the line is influenced more than ever by "perception", rather than "true strength"...
And in Tonight's late TNT Match-Up, I feel that we have an opportunity to get our money down...while we are getting the best of it...because of what I just touched on...So let's get to that bet right away, and see if we can cash in on this line error...VR
NBA on TNT "TRUE STEAM" for THURSDAY 1-14-10 :
1.) CLE/UTAH Total Opened 196.5....Now Total is 195...(BET UNDER)
Here is another one of those situations where the Betting Syndicates just weren't willing to show their hand when the total for this match-up was first offered yesterday afternoon at CRIS...And as we've touched on before, it don't make sense for the Outfits to take a position on a game, when there are very few "outs" willing to book it...and the limits are lower...So rather than take advantage of the line mistake immediately, they prefer to sit back and wait for more books to offer a line...
The reason this "steam" play really jumped out at me, other than the fact my "True Line" for this total is much lower than what is being offered...is because since this is a TNT "Prime-Time" Game...and more importantly, the late game (which almost always will have the most money pending)...and we are sure that the betting public will side with the OVER...the Wiseguys could have easily sat back, and allowed that pressure from the public, to force the books to adjust this total even higher...
But as I've said countless times...it's not as if these Betting Syndicates work together, nor is there just one group with an opinion that forces the books to move their numbers...So even though there may be a handful of Wiseguys who are looking to take a position on the same game, it becomes a race to see who can get the most money down, at the very best number...And although there are many times when these Outfits would love to sit back and allow the public money to force an adjustment which would give them an even bigger edge...it becomes impossible to do when someone steps up and begins to "steam" a side or total...
And rather than miss out on the party, they then are forced to step up themselves...and take their position now, knowing the number won't be the same for very long...And as the books begin to adjust, more and more of the value is gone...
That's what happened here, because very early this morning...the UNDER 196.5 got "steamed"...And although the books adjusted their total some, it wasn't enough to keep the others away...So before you knew it, the Wiseguys had positioned themselves at UNDER 196.5, 196, & 195.5...Which forced the adjustment down to 195...where this total is now at, almost all across the board...
I believe that we were looking at such an inflated total because of the fact these 2 teams played earlier in the season, and we saw them go Over the total by "20 Points"...And when you look at the series recently, you will see that 3 straight games between these two teams have gone Over the total...But with that said, only 1 of those totals was set higher than 191...
Then when you look at the current form of both these teams...you will see that BOTH have gone Over in 3 of their L/4 games coming in...And each scored 117 & 118 respectively in their last game, which was played on Monday night...
So the "perception" coming in is offense...But I believe we are in for the total opposite, and instead this will become a defensive battle where both teams prefer to play a half-court game...than run the floor...We know that Shaq is now probable, which means the Cavs will be more prone to post-up...and I have no doubt that we will see more of that from the Jazz as well...
Finally, both of these defenses come in allowing only 94pts (Cle) and 97pts (Utah) per game...
With Clevelands Defense being Ranked #1 in FG% Allowed...and #3 in PTS Allowed, while Utah is #9...
Bottom line...we have a spot where the Total is definitely inflated based on nothing more than "perception"...And it's these type of spots, that if you can get your money down on enough...will eventually lead to long-term profits...Which after all, must always be the main goal and focus if you truely plan on beating the books in the long run...VR
LINE PREDICTION : I would not be surprised at all to see this Under get "steamed" some more...But with that said, although we will then see it dip even a little lower than 195...I believe that it will then begin to once again climb back up as the betting public begins to get involved and place their wagers on tonight's games...And since this is the late TNT match-up, we may see if climb some more right before tip-off...So even though I feel that at 195, we are really getting the best of it...I don't think that we risk losing any value by waiting until much closer to tip-off, to take our position...
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