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Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, January 14,2010
Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, January 14,2010
150 Units Cleveland State
50 Units Cavaliers
CLEVELAND STATE - Despite be 12-4 SU this season and ranked in the Top 25 in the polls, Butler has been a money loser throughout the season, going 6-10 ATS. Coming into tonight’s game against Cleveland State, the Bulldogs have covered in just 3 of their last 9 games and are just 2-4 ATS at home this year. Now they battle a Cleveland State team that’s had its number over the last few seasons. The Vikings have gone 4-2 ATS their last 6 meetings against Butler, including back-to-back covers. In fact, in their last meeting, last March, Cleveland State was installed as a 6 1/2 point favorite and pulled off the outright victory, beating Butler 57-54. I’m not saying they’re going to get another outright victory tonight, but the Vikings will cash in.
CAVALIERS - For the season, the Cleveland Cavaliers are just 20-20 ATS. However, on the road is where the team is making its money, having gone 14-9 ATS away from home. That’s vital considering Cleveland is installed as a slight underdog at the Jazz tonight. Most importantly, however, is what these two do when they get together. The Cavaliers are on a 10-1 ATS run against the Jazz and have covered in 6 straight in Utah. Tonight, Cleveland makes it 7 straight.
20 DIME: LOUISIANA TECH
10 DIME: TENNESSEE
BREAKDOWN: Louisiana Tech continues to slip under the radar of oddsmakers and betters alike. This is a pretty good basketball team, one that sits at 16-2 SU and 9-3 ATS, including 7-0 SU and 4-0 ATS at home. La-Tech comes into this game having won nine in a row (6-0 ATS in lined action, including 5-0 ATS as a favorite), and as part of this winning streak, it has won its first four Western Athletic Conference games. That includes two impressive wins and covers over Utah State and Nevada (thought by many to be the class of the WAC). … Fresno State has turned the corner a bit in winning its last four in a row, but that was entirely at home. Fresno lost its last two road games to Oregon State and Montana, and also fell to Santa Clara and Division II Seattle on the road. … Last year, Fresno went to Louisiana Tech and got murdered 55-42 as a four-point road underdog, and La-Tech has cashed in five of the last eight meetings. Additionally, La-Tech is on insane ATS streaks of 40-16 overall, 20-6 in WAC play, 20-8 at home, 13-3 as a favorite, 11-1 as a home favorite and 22-4 against teams with a winning record.
BREAKDOWN: Not worried about a letdown with Tennessee, which is coming off a very surprising 76-68 win over top-ranked Kansas as a five-point home underdog. The reason I’m not worried is Auburn stinks this year. You take away a one-point home win over Virginia (as a five-point favorite), and the Tigers don’t have a single victory that could even remotely be called “quality.” Auburn’s other wins came against West Georgia, Georgia Southern, Charleston Southern, Alabama St., Alabama A&M, High Point, Indiana-Purdue and Niagara. What’s even worse is some of the losses Auburn has suffered this year: Missouri St., Central Florida, Troy, Sam Houston St.). And while Tennessee knocked off No. 1 Kansas last weekend, Auburn was opening its SEC season by losing 80-71 at home to South Carolina as a one-point favorite … The home team is 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings between these teams; Tennessee is 9-4 SU and ATS in the last 13 meetings (including 6-0 SU and ATS in Knoxville); and the winner has covered the pointspread in each of the last 15 meetings going back to 1998. … Also, the Vols are on a 17-8-1 ATS roll as a favorite of 13 points or more, while Auburn is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven when catching 13 points or more.
25 Dime NBA Absolute Lock - CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
This is one of those NBA matchups that is owned by one side. The Cavaliers have won four straight over the Jazz (3-1 ATS) and won 10 of the last 11 (10-1 ATS). They are a perfect 6-0 ATS in Salt Lake City over the last six seasons and it all ties in with LeBron who has put up monster numbers agaisnt the Jazz in is career. Cleveland is on ATS runs of 12-5 agaisnt Northwest Division teams, 13-5 against winning teams and 5-2 after getting two days off. Go ahead and lay the chalk with the Cavs tonight.
300♦ - Miss State Bulldogs minus plus the points
Gotta lay it with the surging Bulldogs, as Miss State has won 10 of their last 11 straight up, and they have covered 8 of their last 9 on line.
Arkansas has dropped 3 in a row coming into this game, and they have also dropped the last 3 in this series both straight up, and against the spread.
Overall, Arkansas is on a 3-10 spread run in this series. Lay away!
100♦ - Utah Jazz at a near pick
4th of 5 in a row on the road for the Cavaliers, and since they have won their last pair, I figure this road game they are going to stub their toe.
Utah is a solid 13-7 against the spread at home this year, and they did cover this year's earlier meeting, losing by 4 in Cleveland as the double-digit dog. Shaq missed that one for the Cavs, while Deron Williams was sidelined for the Jazz, thus the big number.
The home court means something tonight, as Utah stops a 4 game series slide.
Back the Jazz.
800♦ NBA TOTAL OF THE YEAR
By sharing the rock, and getting everyone involved, these are a pair of teams that have been finding ways to manufacture points and have been scoring points of late. Utah is is averaging a league-best 25.8 this season, while Cleveland has averaged 23.2 assists in going 10-2 since Dec. 21. And get this, they're 8-0 when getting 22 or more - and have won their last dozen in which LeBron James had at least eight himself.
Why is all this relevant? Easy, when you have two teams who pass the ball well, you generally have teams that shoot high-percentage shots and that can score. Monday night, the Cavaliers were involved in a 231-point game while the Jazz were in a game that tallied 207 points.
Tonight's total is below the 200-point plateau, and that shocks me.
In the teams' first meeting this season, on Nov. 14, they poured in 210 points in Cleveland. Why should tonight be any different? Cause they're in high-altitude Salt Lake City? Not buying it!
Not when these two have gone Over in seven of the past nine meetings - four of which were in Utah and all eclipsed the posted number.
Play this one high and thank me in the morning!
20 Dime - SAINT MARY'S (minus points vs. Gonzaga)
The Gaels are 8-1 at home, have won 13 of their last 14 overall, are 12-2 ATS this season and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games. Senior center Omar Samhan (20.8 ppg, 10.9 rebounds) leads a Saint Mary's squad that is averaging 82.5 ppg and has five players averaging at least 9.9 ppg, and the home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings between these teams.
Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Thursday, January 14,2010
Providence at DePaul
Pick: DePaul +4
Okay, so DePaul didn't win a Big-East conference game last year and haven't won one yet this year either. The Blue Demons do look forward to their rare opportunities to get a conference win after 22 consecutive Big East losses and with Providence at home today and on Saturday at St. Johns. This is a contest that the Blue Demons want to win and will provide a maximum effort. Take DE PAUL!
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