Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Monday, January 11,2010

BRANDON LANG

20 DIME - VILLANOVA WILDCATS -Don't trust Louisville in this spot here.

With losses this year already to Western Carolina and Charlotte, I don't care what they have done since, it shows me this Pitino squad is very vulnerable.

Now they step up in class to face one of the best teams in the Big East in Villanova, and it's a Nova squad fully armed with the return of Reggie Redding.

With Redding back the Cats have won 5 in a row with 5 guys averaging in double digits and a bench that goes 10 deep, exactly the kind of squad to give Louisville fits.

Nova comes in at 14-1 with the only loss at rival Temple and the bottom line for me is I just love the balance of this Villanova squad.

It's no secret what the Cardinals do. They full court press you, and look for the long ball in transition. That may work against teams with inexperience at the guard spot but the guard spot is the strength of this Nova team.

As Pitino said, "They seem like they have 9 guards."

Villanova has been installed as an underdog for the first time this year and I will gladly grab the points with more experienced team and the more balanced team.

20 Dime - Villanova

FREE SELECTION - OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

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MR EAST

NCAAB MONDAY MAJOR BLOWOUT

E. ILLINOIS @ MURRAY ST.
3 UNITS: MURRAY ST. -18

Murray St. has been a lethal team, as they have 8 of their 13 wins by 20 points or more, and that includes 5 of their 7 played at home, where their margin has been 27.2ppg. Eastern Illinois comes in here appearing to be a competent 10-5, but their strength of schedule ranking of 310, won't have them prepared vs the Racers who could lay 100 points on this defenseless team. Panthers pretenders vs winning teams, at just 1-8 ATS in their last 9. I look for an easy Murray St. win in this one.

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Tom Freese

10* NBA NO BRAINER

Oklahoma City is 9-2 ATS their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record and they are 28-11 ATS their last 39 games off an ATS loss. The Thunder are 7-3 ATS their last last 10 games vs. NBA Atlantic Division teams and they are 39-19 ATS on Monday. New York is in a 72-39 ATS Play Against System that says to go against any team that shot over 50% in four or more straight games if they have a losing record  and they are playing a team with a winning record. 10* "NO BRAINER" PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY

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Sportsbetsnow

3 Units GOW Louisville -3

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Teddy Covers

Knicks

Rider

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KBHoops

5* Louisville -3 *POD*
5* New Orleans Hornets +1.5 *POD*
4* Indiana Pacers -1.5
3* Boston Celtics -4
3* OU Sooners +1

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Dwayne Bryant

Villanova at Louisville
Bet: Louisville -3

After a sluggish 5-3 start that included home losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina, Louisville is rolling. The Cardinals have won seven of their last eight, with the only loss coming at Kentucky. Yes, Villanova is a damn tough opponent that can go 10 deep. But Rick Pitino's Cardinals can go just as deep, and I really like the size advantage Louisville has down low with 6'9" Samardo Samuels going against smaller 'Nova forwards. The Cardinals can play up-tempo and they can play at a snail's pace. That versatility is also huge. I expect the home court edge to be huge tonight in what should be a frenzied Louisville crowd at Freedom Hall. This is the Cardinals' chance to prove (in front of a national TV audience on ESPN) that they can once again win the Big East. A statement game indeed. Take Louisville.

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SportsKingz

Boston

La.Tech

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Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Cleveland / Golden State Under 214

For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the "under" in this situation:

On Nov. 17 Lebron James finished with 31 points and a season high-tying 12 assists as the Cavs beat the Warriors 114-108 in Cleveland. That was the Warriors’ third straight loss to the Cavaliers and their sixth in the teams’ seven meetings since the 2006-07 season.

Golden State has also lost its last three games against Cleveland at Oracle Arena. James made a 19-footer to barely beat the final buzzer in the Cavaliers’ 106-105 win Jan. 23, their last meeting there.

Cleveland played last night, winning 106-94 in Portland; the second game of a season-long five-game trip against Western Conference opponents. James played a season-high 45 minutes against the Trail Blazers and finished with 41 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists while shooting 13 of 19. The five-time All-Star had 20 points on 8 of 8 shooting in the first quarter; suffice to say I expect him to be sluggish this evening.

Remember, the total has gone "under" the posted number in six of Cleveland's last nine overall and in four of its last five on the road.

On the other side of the court: After a poor start to the season, Golden State (11-24) has been more competitive lately. The Warriors have won four of seven - including victories over Phoenix and Boston - after losing 21 of their first 28.

The Warriors are well rested having been off since a 108-101 win over Sacramento on Friday, the opener of a season-high seven-game homestand.

Monta Ellis has scored at least 30 points in eight of Golden State’s last 11 games and is second in the league with 41.7 minutes per game.

Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the number in four of Golden State's last six overall.

Bottom line: Here are a couple more strong "under" trends each teams exhibit and which are directly applicable to tonight's game; Golden State has seen the total go "under" the posted number in 13 of its last 20 games after scoring 105 points or more in its previous contest while Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the posted number in 20 of 33 games this year when playing the roll of favorite.

When taking into account all of the above factors, the sharp money in this one is on the UNDER!

9* UNDER

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Bob Balfe

Heat/Jazz Over 192

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Mike Lineback

Phoenix -9.5

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Marc Lawrence

Oklahoma +1

As expected, the absence of superstar Blake Griffin (NBA’s #1 draft choice) and two other starters has had a negative effect on this year’s Sooners squad. After going 30-6 last season, Oklahoma has struggled to a 9-5 start, marred by embarrassing losses to Virginia Commonwealth, San Diego and Texas-El Paso. But nothing seems to whip OU into a frenzy quite like an opportunity to beat up on the hated Cowboys of Oklahoma State – especially when OSU bounced the Sooners from the opening round of last year’s Big 12 Tournament in a 71-70 shocker. As you know, we love teams playing with Conference tourney revenge and Oklahoma thrives in the revenge role against their rivals from Stillwater, posting a solid 11-5 ATS mark. Jeff Capel’s squad also takes no prisoners against league foes when playing in Norman, winning 25 of their last 31 encounters in straight-up fashion. Oklahoma State’s fast 11-2 break from the gate, along with Saturday's disparate results, means solid line value with the Sooners. We recommend a 4-unit play on Oklahoma.

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Opposite Action Plays

Louisville -2.5

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Rocketman

Chicago -6

Detroit is 9-23 ATS last 3 years and 3-11 ATS this year after 3 or more consecutive losses. Detroit is 3-15 SU on the road this year. Detroit has lost 12 games in a row heading into tonight. Chicago is 9-0 ATS overall vs Detroit the past 3 years. Pistons are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Pistons are 19-44 ATS in their last 63 games following a SU loss. Pistons are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. NBA Central. Pistons are 14-37 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS loss. Pistons are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Pistons are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Pistons are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Pistons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. Pistons are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Pistons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Pistons are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Pistons are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. Pistons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Bulls are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central. Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Pistons are 5-15-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Pistons are 0-4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Chicago. We'll play Chicago for 5 units tonight!

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Lenny Del Genio

Utah -7.5

There are two venues in the league where you don't want to visit playing with no rest. One is Denver. The other is Utah. The Jazz have covered nine of their last 12 home games. We were targeting this play even before the Heat lost to the Clippers yesterday afternoon, 94-84 as the Jazz are also playing with revenge. The roles are almost reversed from the last meeting when Utah lost 80-70 on South Beach, their lowest scoring output of the season. That was their fifth road game in eight nights, a big reason for that. Now its Miami playing for the fourth time in six nights. The Heat are just 15-30 ATS coming off BB road games, 8-19 ATS if they were underdogs in both of those games. Utah is 15-5 ATS playing at home with revenge for a double-digit loss. They are also off a 111-93 win in Dallas as 5.5-point underdogs, putting them in two great situations. They are 11-3 ATS if they were an underdog last game. They are also 18-7 ATS at home off a win by 15 or more points. Take Utah.

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The Big Bambino's Play of The Day

Manchester City -1
Manchester City over 2.5


Bambino's Daily Plays

7* Celtics -3
6* Thunder -5
7* Hornets +2

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Anthony Redd

30-Dime - Pistons

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NHL PRO PICKS

LA Kings +128

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Bobby Flanagan

3* Villanova +3

The Wildcats are looking like they started this season right where they left off last year. Their only loss coming to Temple while they have put it on cruise control past their other opponents.

Louisville has taken a couple of losses to weak opponents like Western Carolina and Charlotte at home earlier this season that does not look good for them. Their S.O.S. was easy in non-conference play but they still choked up in their two toughest games to Kentucky and UNLV. Right now Louisville should only have 1 loss instead of 4.

I think the four guard line up for Villanona is too fast and too talented for the Cardinals to handle and we'll go ahead and take the points in a game I think Villanova wins outright.

The Cardinals over the last decade have been losing over 75% of their tickets over the past few years when playing teams with winning records over .600%.


3* Utah State -18

Hawaii never travels well to the mainland and they are off to a 0-3 start this season ATS in road games. Utah State is coming off back to back road losses and they should win this by 20+ points.

I expect a very motivated Utah State team to try to salvage a bad road trip and learn from their mistakes and take out some frustration on Hawaii in the confines of their own building.

Utah State beat them by 20 here last year and I don't see any reason why they can't do it again this season. It's always good to back a quality hungry team in their first home game after a tough road trip and I think that tactic pays off for us tonight.

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jmhunter wrote:


The Big Bambino's Play of The Day

Manchester City -1
Manchester City over 2.5


Bambino's Daily Plays

7* Celtics -3
6* Thunder -5
7* Hornets +2

Bambino lands his play of the day!! Manchester City Wins an easy 4-1!! And lands the over!

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