Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

SPORTS ADVISORS

NBA

Dallas (18-7, 13-12 ATS) at Oklahoma City (12-11, 14-9 ATS)

The Mavericks, who are in the midst of playing six of seven games at home, make their one road trip during this stretch when they stop at the Ford Center, where they’ll try to extend a four-game winning streak and hand the Thunder their third straight defeat.

Dallas held off New Orleans 94-90 on Monday, but came up way short as an 8½-point home chalk. Although the Mavericks have won four in a row – with the three of the victories coming by a total of six points – they’re mired in a 2-7 ATS funk. On the positive end, Dallas pummeled Miami 106-93 as a 1½-point road chalk on Friday to improve to 9-4 SU and ATS on the highway this season.

Oklahoma City is coming off near-identical losses to Cleveland on Sunday (102-89, falling as a 3½-point home underdog) and Denver on Monday (102-93, cashing as a 10-point road pup). Monday’s setback to the Nuggets snapped the Thunder’s string of 17 straight games without consecutive SU defeats. Oklahoma City has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in its last six home games.

Although the Thunder covered in the loss at Denver on Monday, the SU winner is still 21-2 ATS in their 23 games this season, including 9-0 ATS in their last nine at home. Meanwhile, the winner has cashed in all 13 of Dallas’ roadies this year.

The host has won six consecutive meetings in this rivalry, but Oklahoma City is 5-0-1 ATS during this stretch, all as an underdog. Going back a little further, though, the visitor is on a 5-2-1 ATS roll when these teams square off, and Dallas is still 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games against the Thunder franchise going back to their days as the Seattle SuperSonics.

Dallas’ ATS slumps including 2-7 overall, 1-5 against the Western Conference, 2-6 versus Northwest Division foes, 1-5 as a favorite and 9-19 when laying less than five points on the highway, but the Mavericks’ 7-2 ATS streak on the road is buoyed by a 21-8 ATS mark in their last 29 Wednesday contests.

Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last five after getting just one day of rest, 3-9 ATS in its last 12 after a spread-cover, 3-7 in its last 10 as a home ‘dog and 1-4 ATS in its last five when catching less than five points at home, but it is on positive pointspread tears of 4-1 against the Western Conference, 12-4 against the Southwest Division, 5-1 on Wednesday and 38-16 after a SU defeat. Also, from a pointspread perspective, the Thunder haven’t cashed in more than two straight games all season, but they haven’t had back-to-back non-covers all year, either.

The Mavs are on “over” runs of 7-1 on the highway, 9-3 against winning teams, 10-4 after one day of rest, 5-2 following a SU win 4-1 as a road favorite and 13-4 when laying less than five points. The over is also 5-2-1 in the Thunder’s last eight home games and 12-5 in their last 17 after a SU defeat, but otherwise Oklahoma City is on “under” runs of 3-0-1 overall, 4-0 against the Western Conference and 10-3-1 as a home pup. Likewise, the under in this rivalry is on runs of 4-1 overall and 4-0 in Oklahoma City.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


Houston (14-10, 15-9 ATS) at Denver (18-7, 13-12 ATS)

The Nuggets shoot for their third straight victory overall and fifth straight win at home when they host the Rockets at the Pepsi Center.

Houston is coming off Tuesday’s 107-96 rout of Detroit as a 5½-point home favorite. The Rockets are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games, including 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six on the road. In fact, Houston has won six of its last nine as a visitor, going 7-2 ATS. Rick Adleman’s squad has topped triple digits in nine of its last 13 road games.

Carmelo Anthony scored 31 points, leading five Denver players in double-digit scoring in Monday’s 102-93 home win over the Thunder. However, the Nuggets fell short as a 10-point favorite, their fourth straight non-cover (all as a favorite) following a 9-3 ATS run. George Karl’s squad is now 11-1 at the Pepsi Center (7-5 ATS), averaging 115 ppg (48.7 percent shooting) while allowing 102.1 ppg (45.7 percent). Denver has scored more than 100 points in all 12 home contests.

The Rockets have won three straight in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), including a 97-95 win in Denver as a four-point road underdog in the final meeting of last season. Prior to that contest, though, the host had won seven straight series meetings going back to the 2007-08 campaign (5-2 ATS). Houston is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 battles with the Nuggets, going 5-2 ATS in its last seven visits to the Pepsi Center.

In addition to cashing in five of seven overall and seven of nine on the road, the Rockets are on ATS tears of 6-0 against Northwest Division opponents, 5-0 as an underdog, 4-0 as a road pup and 6-1 on Wednesday. The Nuggets’ 0-4 ATS drought is balanced by positive pointspread stretches of 15-7 at home, 27-11 against Western Conference foes, 27-10 against Southwest Division opponents, 6-2 on Wednesday, 25-12 versus teams with a winning record, 43-15-1 as a favorite of 5 to 10½ points and 36-14-1 as a favorite in that range at home.

Houston soared over the total last night against Detroit, ending an 8-0 “under” stretch. Still, the Rockets are on low-scoring sprees of 6-0 on the road, 5-0 against Western Conference opponents, 8-3 versus the Northwest Division, 4-1 on Wednesday, 4-1 as a ‘dog and 10-4 when playing back-to-back nights. Denver carries “under” trends of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-1 when playing on one day of rest and 4-1 against Western Conference competition. Conversely, three of the last four meetings between these clubs have gone over the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER


COLLEGE BASKETBALL

(25) Cincinnati (6-2, 3-3 ATS) at UAB (8-1, 4-3 ATS)

The Bearcats hope to rebound for a tough double-overtime loss to rival Xavier when they head to Bartow Arena in Birmingham for a non-conference clash with UAB.

Cincinnati’s two defeats this season came in overtime – one to Gonzaga in the Maui Invitational championship game in November (61-59 as a one-point chalk) and one at Xavier on Sunday (83-79 as a 3½-point road underdog). In Sunday’s double-OT setback, the Bearcats shot just 37.6 percent from the field, missing 18 of 23 from three-point land. The 83 points allowed were by far a season-high for Cincinnati, which had limited its first seven opponents to 68 points or less (and 60.3 points per game).

The Blazers have won seven straight games, with six of those coming at Bartow Arena, but they’ve been idle since Dec. 4 when they trashed East Tennessee State 74-52 in a non-lined outing. Six of UAB’s eight wins have been double-digit blowouts, while the other two were by a total of four points. The team’s lone loss came at currently-ranked Kansas State, 72-65 as a 2½-point underdog back on Nov. 14. With the exception of Kansas State, UAB has limited every opponent to 64 points or fewer, with six of nine foes scoring less than 60 points. reproach

These teams have met nine times this decade – including twice in 2001 – with the home team winning seven of the last eight battles (4-4 ATS). Last year, the Bearcats prevailed 87-80 as a three-point home chalk, ending UAB’s two-game SU winning streak and four-game ATS run. Still, the Blazers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the ‘dog cashed in seven of those 10.

Cincinnati is 19-6-2 ATS in its last 27 Wednesday contests, but is otherwise in ATS slumps of 3-7 overall, 2-7-1 against Conference USA opponents, 1-5 on the highway, 1-5 as a favorite, 1-4 after a SU loss and 0-4 after an ATS setback. Meanwhile, the Blazers have failed to cover in five straight games against the Big East, four straight as an underdog and five of seven versus opponents that have a winning record, but they’re 13-6 ATS in their past 19 contests as a home ‘dog.

The under is on runs of 6-1 for the Bearcats overall, 5-0 for the Bearcats as a favorite, 7-2 for UAB overall, 4-1 for UAB at home, 5-2 for UAB as a home underdog and 3-1 in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UAB and UNDER


Oklahoma State (8-1, 2-1-1 ATS) at Stanford (5-3, 3-2-1 ATS)

Oklahoma State plays just it second true road game of the season when it treks to Maples Pavilion in Palo Alto, Calif., for a non-league battle with the Cardinal.

The Cowboys’ first true roadie came at Tulsa on Dec. 2, and the results weren’t pretty as they lost 86-65 as a 1½-point road underdog. However, they bounced back quickly with a pair of non-lined home victories over Texas San-Antonio (61-55 on Dec. 5) and Arkansas Pine-Bluff (81-66 on Sunday). Oklahoma State has scored 77 points or more in six of nine games, and they’re averaging 77 ppg (46.5 percent shooting) while holding opponents to just 63.3 ppg (38.3 percent).

Stanford has won four of its last five games (3-1 ATS in lined action), and the one blemish was a 73-65 overtime loss to still-unbeaten and now-third-ranked Kentucky as a 10-point underdog in a preseason tournament in Cancun. The Cardinal followed up that tough defeat with a pair of easy home wins over Portland State (83-64 as a 12½-point favorite on Nov. 29) and U.C. Davis (85-69 as a 19-point chalk on Sunday). Stanford is 4-1 at home (1-1-1 ATS in lined games), putting up 83.6 ppg (50.5 percent shooting) and holding the opposition to 67.6 ppg (44.6 percent).

This is the first meeting between these schools.

Going back to last season, Oklahoma State is on pointspread hot streaks of 13-2-1 overall in lined games, 5-2 on the road, 5-1-2 in non-conference action, 10-2-1 after a SU win and 10-2-1 against winning teams. The only negatives for the Cowboys: a 5-14 ATS mark on Wednesday, a 5-11-1 ATS mark as an underdog and a 4-10-1 ATS mark as a road pup.

Stanford sports ATS trends of 3-1-1 overall, 4-1-2 at home, 12-3-1 in non-conference contests, 5-2 versus Big 12 teams, 5-2 on Wednesday and 21-8-1 against winning teams.

The under is on stretches of 5-2 for the Cowboys in non-league contests, 7-3 for the Cowboys after a SU victory, 6-2 for the Cardinal against the Big 12, 6-1 for the Cardinal on Wednesday, 9-4 for the Cardinal as a favorite and 4-1 for the Cardinal after a SU victory.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Marc Lawrence

Cincinnati at UAB
Prediction: UAB

The Blazers host the Bearcats in a non-conference clash at Bartow Arena with revenge on their minds from a loss they suffered in Cincinnati last year. Aside from playing on a strong home court, UAB is 15-5 ATS in this series, including 7-1 ATS as a host. With that, look for the Bearcats to fall to 1-6 ATS in games after facing cross town rival Xavier here tonight.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Jim Feist

Detroit Pistons vs. New Orleans Hornets    
Play: New Orleans Hornets -5½

Health problems have dogged both these teams to start the season, but the best news for the Hornets are that they are finally healthy. The last game, against Dallas, Chris Paul had 20 points and 16 assists, his fifth straight double-double since returning from an injury. Paul has 70 assists in those five games (14.0 APG). Detroit just finished up a long home stretch, but this is their second straight road game and the second of a back to back spot (at Houston last night), while New Orleans is rested. Play the Hornets!

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Dominic Fazzini

L.A. Lakers -6 at MILWAUKEE

Have you been following my complimentary selections? You should be, because I am red hot, giving out another winner Tuesday with Wyoming, which pushed my record over the past 67 days to 42-25, including a 25-12 run!

And I've got an NBA play today that is going to keep the momentum going, taking the favored Lakers on the road at Milwaukee. Los Angeles has won 12 of its last 13 games, and won 96-87 at Chicago on Tuesday as Kobe Bryant scored a season-high 42 points despite playing with a broken right index finger.

Bryant has torched the Bucks in his last nine games against them, averaging 29.7 points.

Los Angeles leads the NBA in rebounds per game with 44.9 and also is tops in opponents' shooting percentage overall (42.5 percent) and from 3-point range (29.9 percent). And I think the Lakers' front line of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, with Lamar Odom coming off the bench, has too much talent and strength for Milwaukee, which doesn't have much talent up front other than Andrew Bogut.

The Bucks have lost three straight games against the Lakers, and the road team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between the teams. Take Los Angeles to cover tonight as a road favorite.

3♦ L.A. LAKERS

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Bobby Maxwell

San Antonio at GOLDEN STATE +5'

Make it five straight FREE winners and 28 of my last 41 after the Bulls just got inside the number at home against the Lakers. Tonight I'm right back on the NBA hardwood with a comp winner on the Warriors as they host the Spurs.

I know San Antonio has won six straight and eight of 10 against the Warriors, but now the young legs of Golden State gets the aging legs of the Spurs on the second night of a back-to-back.

The Spurs are traditionally bad on the second night of a back-to-back and this year they are 0-3 ATS. San Antonio manages just 95.7 points a game on the road while Golden State puts up 112.7 points per contest when they are home.

The Warriors lost to Philadelphia on Monday and ended their five-game road trip 1-4 (1-3-1 ATS). Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry make for a potent backcourt and I think they can handle the backcourt of Keith Bogans and Tony Parker.

San Antonio is on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 2-8 on the road and 6-13 on Wednesdays. The Warriors are on ATS runs of 5-1 at home, 13-3 at home after a road trip of seven or more days and 37-12-2 as a hoem ‘dog and 6-2-1 after getting one day off.

The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two squads.

I’m not saying Golden State is going to pull off the outright upset, but they will keep it close throughout and definitely get within the number against the Spurs.

2♦ GOLDEN STATE

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

LT Profits

Utah Jazz @ New Jersey Nets

The New Jersey Nets are the lowest scoring team in the NBA, while the Utah Jazz are mot nearly as potent offensively on the road as they are at home, so we do not see this total approaching 200 points.

The Nets are not a league worst 2-23 by accident, as they are last in the league in scoring (89.2 points per game), field goal percentage (41.4 percent) and three-point shooting percentage (27.2 percent). Moreover, they have actually been worse when playing at home, averaging a woeful 88.3 points while shooting a dismal 40.2 percent overall and hitting on only 25.2 percent of their threes.

It is no small wonder then that the Nets have been one of the most Under-friendly teams in the league, with the Under going 16-7-2, 69.6 percent in all of their games with an average combined total score of 189.2 points per game, nearly nine points less than this posted total.

Now the Jazz are averaging 101.4 points while shooting 49.1 percent from the field overall, but they have severe home/away splits, as they average only 94.9 points on 45.8 percent shooting on the road. This is actually nothing new for Utah, as they have also had one of the strongest home court advantages in the NBA but have always performed considerably worse when traveling.

All things considered, we do not see either of these teams getting out of the 90s here, and we see this game total topping out at around 190 or so, giving good value to the Under at this posted total.

Pick: Jazz/Nets Under 198

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

DUNKEL

Utah at New Jersey     
The Jazz look to take advantage of a New Jersey team that is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 games as a home underdog between 5 and 10 1/2 points. Utah is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Jazz favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Utah (-8 1/2)

Game 501-502: Toronto at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.675; Orlando 126.481
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 16; 217
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 503-504: Memphis at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 116.466; Atlanta 127.972
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 11 1/2; 215
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-9 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Cleveland at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 121.543; Philadelphia 116.058
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 507-508: Charlotte at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 116.224; Indiana 115.913
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+3 1/2); Under

Game 509-510: Utah at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 122.893; New Jersey 110.568
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 12 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 8 1/2; 198
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-8 1/2); Under

Game 511-512: LA Clippers at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 114.188; Minnesota 114.207
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+1 1/2); Under

Game 513-514: LA Lakers at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 128.575; Milwaukee 117.561
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 11; 197
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-5 1/2); Under

Game 515-516: Detroit at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.532; New Orleans 119.392
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 4; 185
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+5 1/2); Under

Game 517-518: Dallas at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.861; Oklahoma City 121.570
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+2); Over

Game 519-520: Houston at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 117.538; Denver 124.462
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 7; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 8; 206 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+8); Over

Game 521-522: Washington at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 113.329; Sacramento 119.827
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 6 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 2; 214
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-2); Under

Game 523-524: San Antonio at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.454; Golden State 114.607
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 10; 214
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 213 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-5); Over

NCAAB

Clemson at East Carolina
The Tigers look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as a favorite of 13 points or more. Clemson is the pick (-14) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 19. Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-14)

Game 525-526: Central Florida at South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 55.506; South Florida 67.247
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: South Florida by 8
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-8)

Game 527-528: Wright State at Mississippi State
Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 58.949; Mississippi State 76.657
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 11
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-11)

Game 529-530: Clemson at East Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 70.764; East Carolina 51.654
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 19
Vegas Line: Clemson by 14
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-14)

Game 531-532: Wake Forest at NC Wilmington
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 64.134; NC Wilmington 58.375
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 6
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC Wilmington (+8 1/2)

Game 533-534: Richmond at South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 64.909; South Carolina 65.438
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 1
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 4
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (+4)

Game 535-536: Cincinnati at UAB
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 65.842; UAB 66.743
Dunkel Line: UAB by 1
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+2)

Game 537-538: Illinois State at Ohio
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 60.597; Ohio 58.111
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio by 2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (+2)

Game 539-540: Oregon State at Illinois-Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 57.008; Illinois-Chicago 53.549
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-2)

Game 541-542: UTEP at Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 58.815; Mississippi 70.776
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 12
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 7
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-7)

Game 543-544: Santa Clara at Rice
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 52.907; Rice 54.914
Dunkel Line: Rice by 2
Vegas Line: Rice by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+5 1/2)

Game 545-546: Loyola-Chicago at Bradley
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 51.286; Bradley 63.797
Dunkel Line: Bradley by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Bradley by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (-11 1/2)

Game 547-548: Cal Poly at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 44.418; Wisconsin 74.857
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 30 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 549-550: AR-Little Rock at South Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: AR-Little Rock 50.005; South Alabama 58.046
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 8
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (-3 1/2)

Game 551-522: Oklahoma State at Stanford
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 64.716; Stanford 66.638
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 2
Vegas Line: Stanford by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-1 1/2)

Game 553-554: Canisius at Duquesne
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 49.841; Duquesne 60.716
Dunkel Line: Duquesne by 11
Vegas Line: Duquesne by 12
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (+12)

Game 555-556: Samford at Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 43.731; Alabama 68.429
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 24 1/2
Vegas Line: Alabama by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-14 1/2)

Game 557-558: Northern Arizona at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 46.341; New Mexico 72.879
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 26 1/2
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 22
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (-22)

Game 559-560: UL-Monroe at Northern Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 44.965; Northern Colorado 60.108
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 15
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (-10 1/2)

Game 561-562: Presbyterian at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Presbyterian 41.454; Ohio State 80.749
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 39 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 29
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-29)

Game 563-564: North Florida at Northwestern
Dunkel Ratings: North Florida 42.135; Northwestern 70.087
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 28
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 18
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-18)

NHL

Buffalo at Ottawa
The Sabres look to build on their 4-0 record in their last 4 road games. Buffalo is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Sabres favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-125)

Game 1-2: Dallas at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.378; Carolina 11.806
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+115); Over

Game 3-4: Montreal at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.973; New Jersey 12.372
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-200); Over

Game 5-6: NY Islanders at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.871; NY Rangers 10.389
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+140); Under

Game 7-8: Atlanta at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.801; Florida 11.734
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-115); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+105); Under

Game 9-10: Buffalo at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.922; Ottawa 11.366
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-120); Under

Game 11-12: Phoenix at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.842; Toronto 11.988
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-125); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-125); Over

Game 13-14: St. Louis at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 12.302; Chicago 11.884
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-240); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+200); Over

Game 15-16: Anaheim at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.360; Vancouver 12.207
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+160); Under

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

SPORTS WAGERS

Dallas -½ +1.31 over CAROLINA

It’s not like the Stars are going good and can take a breather here. They need points and this is the best place in the league to get them. Dallas has lost three of four although all four games have gone to OT. Still, they’re sinking in the standings and now sit in ninth place in the West and ninth does not qualify for the playoffs. The Stars are coming off games against the Kings and Sharks and after playing those two, this one should appear in slow motion. As for the Canes, well, they’re still a dumpster-fire and look no better now than they did when they were losing about 20 games straight. In fact, over its last four games they’ve been outshot, 39-25, 40-19, 31-23 and 32-21. So, not only do they lose but they’re managing just a handful of shots on net per game. When you’re allowing about four goals against a game and are only mustering up about 20 shots on net, are badly outplayed every period, it’s not rocket science as to why they’re losing. If this ticket gets ripped up, so be it. Betting against the Canes is usually the right thing to do and only bad luck can prevent this ticket from cashing because the play of the Canes sure can’t. Play: Dallas -½ +1.31 (Risking 2 units).


ATLANTA +1.03 over Florida

The Panthers are almost always a live dog but in the role of the chalk, they have very little appeal and at home they have even less appeal. In fact, in 15 home games this season, Florida has five wins. They also return home from a successful four game road trip in which they picked up five of a possible eight points. They’ll return home to a completely lifeless arena and the small crowds they attract has to be one of the reasons they struggle in their own joint. The Thrashers are always tough. Despite two straight wins they’re laboring a bit and were badly outplayed in its last game in New York. They won that game, which is a good sign because they did not play well and you can expect a much better effort here. The Panthers are always vulnerable at home and you can double that after returning home from a trip. Play Atlanta +1.03 (Risking 2 units).


Phoenix +1.14 over TORONTO

The Leafs are another team that is much more appealing in the role of the dog than they are as a favorite. The Leafs are coming off two big wins over the Caps and Sens and they were rather fortunate to win either of them. Jason Blake (one of the more useless players in the league) scored a lucky goal to open the scoring and the Leafs won 3-2 and the Leafs caught an exhausted Caps team on Saturday. The Sens and Coyotes play a very similar style in that they’re both defensive minded and that’s not a style the Leafs prefer. Again, the Leafs have shown a huge propensity for falling behind in the first period by a goal or two and against teams like this they’ll find it a lot more difficult to come back against. Phoenix is so tough to beat, as they work their asses off every shift of every game and they’ll be extra pumped up playing in Toronto while the Leafs have the Sabres on deck after playing the Sens. Play: Phoenix +1.14 (Risking 2 units).     
 

Memphis +9½ over ATLANTA

Yeah, the Grizz are just 10-14 but in no way is this number warranted. Not only are the Grizzlies one of the most improved teams, they’re getting better each game and they’re playing with a ton of confidence. In fact, despite losing to the Celtics in their last game, they played perhaps its best game of the year and only the outstanding and near flawless game by the C’s prevented them from winning that one too. That game had to be inspiring for the Grizzlies and you can just see it in their body language that they’re “feeling it”. The Hawks are coming off three blowout wins over the Bulls, Raps and Nets. Combined, the Bulls and Nets have about two wins in the last 30 games and the Raps get blown out once every two games. Not to take anything away from the Hawks but its recent blowout wins along with the public’s perception of the Grizzlies being a weak squad has caused this line to be extremely inflated. Not only should the Grizzlies cover but they can win this one outright. Play: Memphis +9½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2) Play: Memphis money line +4.08 (Risking 0.5 units).


MILWAUKEE +1.79 over L.A. Lakers

The Lakers are just the class of the league and they’ll basically be on cruise control the entire year. Even when they don’t play well they’re still very tough to beat. If they’re juiced up they’re near impossible to beat. Having said that, the chances of them being jacked up for this one is slim. The Bucks, on the other hand will be extremely jacked up and so will the house. The Bucks are coming off two straight wins and they’re well rested, having been off since Saturday. The Lakers on the other hand played last night in Chicago and will play its third consecutive on the road. The Lakers are 19-4, they have the Nets and Detroit up next to finish off the trip and frankly, there’s just nothing to get excited about for them. The Lakers have lost two of its last three game at this venue and it’s one of the rare places they have trouble at. Bucks come out completely fired up with a damn good chance to win against what could very well be a disinterested monster. Play: Milwaukee +1.79 (Risking 2 units). 


OKLAHOMA CITY +1.11 over Dallas

The Mav’s are a good team to be sure. However, unlike some of the other top teams, Dallas will pull a bunch of no shows throughout the year and this sure looks like it could be one of those times. The Mav’s have won four in a row but you can see the downward spiral unfolding. They had a nice win over Phoenix followed by a win over the Heat in Miami and then back-to-back wins at home over Charlotte and New Orleans by a combined five lousy points. They had a chance to put the Hornets away a few times but failed to do so and that’s a sign of a team on the verge of a low. The Thunder’s last three losses have been to Cleveland, Denver and Boston and they also have a recent loss to the Lakers. That’s perhaps the toughest quartet in the league and it makes them so much more battle tested. The Thunder has played one of the more difficult schedules in the league, yet they’re still a game above .500 and they’re absolutely not an easy out. Play: Oklahoma City +1.11 (Risking 2 units).

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

John Ryan

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Atlanta Hawks    
Play: Atlanta Hawks -9.5

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Atlanta as they take on Memphis set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that Atlanta will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 50-23 for 69% winners since 2004. Play on any team that is posting a strong a >=+7 PPG differential facing an average team sporting a +/- 3 PPG differential and after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half. This is going to be an up tempo paced game and the AiS shows an 88% probability that Atlanta will attempt a minimum of 84 shots. Note that they are a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in up-tempo games where they attempt 84 or more shots this season. Take Atlanta.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Matt Fargo

Cincinnati at UAB
Prediction: UAB

This is a very tough spot for Cincinnati. The Bearcats are coming off a double overtime loss at rival Xavier on Sunday in a game that was very emotional and physical on both sides. Cincinnati did not play well which was its first true road test of the season. The Bearcats had gone 2-1 in three neutral court games in Hawaii but the first road game showed that they definitely are not the same team. It was a tough environment and it can be argued that tonight?s venue is even tougher. Cincinnati had its chances against the Musketeers but it shot just 45.5 percent from the free throw line (10-22) and that is already becoming a big problem this season. The Bearcats are hitting only 60.3 percent from the charity stripe on the season. UAB has not been tested as much this year but it is playing at home and that makes a big difference right there. The Blazers are 6-0 at home and have not left home since playing at Jacksonville St. way back on November 17th. They actually have not played at all since December 4th because of exams and that time off can only help in this case when playing a spent Bearcats teams that has to travel again. UAB did lose a bunch from last season and while it is in a rebuilding stage, nine games into the season makes that not as important right now. The team defense is the strength of the Blazers and it is once again strong, allowing just 59.1 ppg on 40.5 percent shooting. Unlike the Bearcats, UAB can actually make free throws as it is hitting 70.5 percent on the year. The Blazers will be out for some revenge following a seven-point loss in Cincinnati last season. UAB is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games as a home underdog while Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite of less than seven points. Also, the Bearcats are 2-9 ATS against quality teams that are outscoring opponents by 12 or more ppg. 3* UAB Blazers

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Tom Freese

Detroit Pistons at New Orleans Hornets
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets

New Orleans are is 19-7 UNDER their last 26 home games and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 games overall. The Hornets are 19-8 UNDER when playing with one day of rest and they are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 games vs. a team with losing record. Detroit is 6-2 UNDER off a loss by more than 10 points and they are and they are 6-1 UNDER their last 7 games vs. New Orleans and they are 3-1-1 UNDER their last 5 games with the Hornets. The Pistons are 21-10 UNDER when playing their second game in five days. PLAY ON 'UNDER'

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Ben Burns

Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Under

When thinking of the Wizards, most of us tend to think of a high-scoring team which doesn't know the meaning of the word defense. That hasn't really been the case this year though, particularly when they've played outside the nation's capital.

Overall, the Wizards are averaging 97.6 and allowing 101. That ranks them in the bottom half of the league in both categories. However, on the road, they're averaging just 93.1 points on offense, 4th worst in the league, while allowing a fairly respectable 99.9. That equates to their road games averaging 193 points. That's translated into a very profitable 9-1-1 (or 9-2, depending on when/where one played total of their 12/6 game at Detroit) UNDER record in their 11 road games. Only two of their 11 road games have finished with greater than 193 combined points.

Admittedly, the Kings have been involved in higher-scoring games. However, that wasn't the case last night as they combined with Portland for a mere 183 points, scoring only 88 themselves. Off that poor offensive effort, I believe that tonight's number may be a little too high.

The Kings have seen the UNDER go 17-11 the last 28 times that they played a home game with a total of 210 or greater, including 2-1 this season. Given their previously mentioned stats, its not surprising to learn that the Wizards have seen the UNDER go 2-0 when playing a game with a total of 210 or greater. Overall, the Wizards have seen the UNDER go 4-1 in their games against teams from the Western Conference.

Even though these teams have played a few high-scoring games recently, the UNDER is still 9-3 the last 12 times that they faced each other here at Sacramento. While I don't feel as strongly about this one as I do about my "ESPN Blue Chip," I still feel that the 'under' is worth some consideration.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Hollywood Sports

Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

Los Angeles will have to travel to Milwaukee after playing the night before in Chicago. This is a tough situation for the Lakers as they have covered only once in their last six games playing without rest. Los Angeles has prospered from a front-loaded home schedule, which has allowed them to play their first 17 of 21 games at the Staples Center. Last Saturday, they began their five-day road stand by losing in Utah, 102-94. Before Tuesday, the Lakers (18-4) were only 3-2 on the road with just a +0.6 net point differential. They allow their opponents to score over 100 points a game when playing on their home court. The Bucks will be waiting for the Lakers to arrive on three days of rest. Milwaukee (11-11) is a strong home team as they are 9-3 overall with a +5.8 net point differential. They shoot a sizzling 42.3% from behind the arc at their Bradley Center. The Bucks have won two straight at home -- a 22-point win against Toronto and then a 108-101 overtime win against Portland last Saturday. Milwaukee only improves now that shooting guard Michael Redd is back in the rotation after left knee injury sidelined him for seven games. The Bucks play up to their competition as well as they have covered in five of their last seven games against teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher. On Wednesday, take the Bucks.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

Joseph D'Amico

Oregon State vs. Illinois Chicago    
Play: Oregon State -2

Oregon State is 4-4, but they hung in very close to Nebraska, Sacramento State, and Texas Tech. They lost all 3 games by a combined 12 points. The Beaver's are an excellent road team at 3-0 ATS away from home TY. 6'5" 210 lb. Guard Seth Tarver is their top performer. Tarver is averaging 12.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 2.7 SPG. I expect the Guard to drain 18-20 points and at least 4-5 steals tonight. Illinois- Chicago has dropped 6 straight. In those 6 losses, the Flame's lost by an average of 14.1 PPG. Mind you, in those 6 contests, none of their opponenets are considered top teams. It goes from bad to worse for Ill-Chi. They just lost Guard Matt Bush for the season. The Beaver's are 5-0 ATS teir L5 road games, 10-1 ATS their L11 non-conference games, and 10-1 ATS their L11 overall. Oregon State is too tough for the lowly Ill-Chi squad. The Beaver's stomp out the Flame's.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

JR TIPS

SPURS at WARRIORS

The San Antonio Spurs have had a sluggish start on the road as they fell to 2-6 on the road after a 116-104 loss at Phoenix last night and now they face the Golden State Warriors who return home after a terrible five-game road trip. Tim Duncan had a season high 34 points along with 14 rebounds but the Spurs struggled defensively allowing the Suns to shot 11 of 18 from 3-point range and 51.6 percent from the field.The Spurs beat the Los Angeles Clippers 115-90 on Sunday night but are now in eighth place team in the Western Conference along with Golden State who have injuries that have plagued their team with Andris Biedrins, Raja Bell and Brandan Wright are out of the lineup. The Warriors were also missing their coach on their road trip but is expected to return tonight after his team dropped seven of its last eight overall as their only road win was against the lowly New Jersey Nets. The Warriors lost to Philadelphia 117-101 on Monday as their leading scorer Monta Ellis scored a season low eight points shooting 3 of 14 from the field. Ellis scored 42 points at San Antonio on Nov. 25th but got little help from his teammates in a 118-104 Golden State loss. Tony Parker had 32 points and seven assists to lead the Spurs as he has played well against the Warriors up tempo play averaging 23.2 points and 7.2 assists while shooting 55.5 percent in his last 17 games against Golden State. The Warriors have been struggling with all their injuries and are in a bad spot tonight playing their first game at home off of an East Coast road trip. The Spurs will look to rebound off of a bad loss last night to the Suns as they have beaten the Warriors by double-digits in their last 17 matchups.

TAKE SAN ANTONIO -5.5

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 16,2009

EZWINNERS

Charlotte Bobcats @ Indiana Pacers
Play: Charlotte Bobcats +3.5

The Bobcats have only won a single game on the road this season, but Indiana can't be trusted laying points and they are on a 4-10 slide against the spread in their last 14 games. Charlotte has had great success in this series posting a 14-5 record against the spread in the last 19 meetings and they are a solid 7-2 against the spread in their last nine visits to Indiana. The Bobcats are coming off of a nice home win over the Knicks last night and they are a solid 7-2 against the spread in the second of back to back games. The absence of Danny Granger who is sidelined with a foot injury is a huge factor for the Pacers. Take the points.

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