Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

RAS

San DIEGO +5.5
Providence +2
BUFFALO +9
BOISE ST +1.5

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

BEN BURNS

CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH!

I'm laying the points with ARIZONA. The Bulldogs come in as the 'hotter' team. However, in my opinion, the Wildcats are still the much 'better' team. The fact that LA Tech enters tonight on a winning streak, while Arizona is on a losing streak, has worked in our favor in two ways. For starters, its helped to keep tonight's line relatively low, as it could easily be much higher. Additionally, it should provide the Wildcats with plenty of motivation.

Yes, LA Tech brings an impressive 7-1 record to the table. However, when compared to Arizona, the Bulldogs have played a very soft schedule. Give the Bulldogs credit for scoring a minor upset vs. TCU, as that was somewhat impressive. However, the only time that they really stepped up to face an opponent of this level (at New Mexico on 11/21) they were crushed by a score of 81-52.

Arizona, on the other hand, has faced Wisconsin, Colorado, Vanderbilt, UNLV and Oklahoma in its last five games. That's a major difference. In other words, while the Bulldogs will be stepping up in class, the Wildcats will be stepping down.

Despite their strong start, the Bulldogs are still just 1-2 ATS in their road lined games. Conversely, despite their slow start, the Wildcats are a profitable 3-1 ATS when listed as favorites. The only time that they didn't cover was vs. UNLV - and that was 2-point loss in overtime. Looking back further and we find the Wildcats at a highly profitable 13-4-1 (16-2 SU) the last 18 times that they were laying points.

New coach Sean Miller has plenty of talent on his team with numerous scoring options. I expect them to show off that talent tonight, putting it all together en route to a double-digit victory. *10 CBB Blowout GOM

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Mike Rose

5* HOFSTRA -8

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

LT Profits

4* VALPARAISO/PURDUE UNDER 147.5

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

TEDDY COVERS

Manhattan: +7.5 3 units

There’s not a whole lot separating Manhattan and Hofstra these days in terms of talent. These New York City schools have faced off against one another in each of the last three years. The final scores of those games? 65-61, 73-71 and 79-77, with two of the three going into overtime. Clearly, recent series history tells us to take a good, hard look at the underdog.

We cashed a ticket betting against Hofstra last week, as home chalk against Fairfield. That was certainly not the Pride’s first failure as home favorites this season. We saw them lose outright at home to Charlotte, and failed to cover the number as eight point home chalk against Yale. As a team, Hofstra is shooting just under 43 percent from the floor; and under 29 percent from three point range; not atypical of teams that lack any sort of dominant low post presence.

Hofstra’s shooting woes aren’t going to be helped by the Jaspers intense defense. For the season, Manhattan has held foes under 37 percent shooting from the floor, while holding teams to an 0.76 assist-to-turnover ratio. Manhattan has proven they can win in hostile environments, fresh off a 14 point victory as road underdogs at Cansius in a very similar price range (+6 there). Expect this meeting to be every bit as competitive as the games from each of the last three years. 3* Take Manhattan.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

DC Riley

2 Units Buffalo Sabres -105

2 Units Columbus Blue Jackets -160

1 Unit Columbus Blue Jackets: -1.5 +200

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Evan Altemus

Atlanta Hawks -10.5

Under normal conditions, I may not have selected this game, but tonight's game is going to be on ESPN with a national audience. That makes all the difference to this young Atlanta team that is close to unbeatable at home when motivated. The Hawks also have shown the ability to blow teams out at home when motivated, even quality opponents. Meanwhile,Chicago is playing horrible right now, and they are coming off of a loss to New Jersey,one of the worst teams in the NBA. To make matters worse, that game was at home, where Chicago usually plays well. I look for them to struggle in this game coming off of a game last night. This game sets up as a perfect storm for Atlanta because of the way the Bulls offense has struggled, plus with the lack of effort Chicago shows away from home. Atlanta has also dominated this series recently, covering the point spread in three straight games and winning outright in four straight games. Look for the Hawks to get a blowout home win.

5 UNIT SELECTION

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

ROCKETMAN

Idaho @ Washington State
Play: 3* Idaho +6

Idaho is scoring 78.9 points per game overall and 83.2 points per game on the road this year. Vandals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Pacific-10. Vandals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog. Cougars are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Cougars are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss. Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. My power ratings has Idaho winning this game outright by 2.36 points. We'll play Idaho for 3 units tonight!

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

RON RAYMOND

5* Buffalo Sabres -105

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

AL DEMARCO

5 Dime - Arizona

I came thisclose to backing Connecticut tonight at Madison Square Garden against Kentucky, but just like last night's Butler-Georgetown game, I have this sneaky suspicion the Huskies are a trap just like the Bulldogs were last night. Plus, how many times have I said over the past 25 years that the marquee games are the toughest to win because their lines are always the sharpest?

Last night I veered off to the Lone Star State instead and found a winner on Texas Tech against TCU. Tonight I'm heading to Tucson for another obscure game on the college card and backing Arizona minus the points at home against Louisiana Tech.

On the surface, it looks strange that Arizona is laying a considerable number of points in this one despite the fact the Wildcats have dropped three in a row and tonight's opponent, LA Tech, is 7-1 on the season. But the 'Cats have nothing to be ashamed of losing at Oklahoma, in overtime at home to UNLV, and in the Maui Invitation to Vanderbilt, three teams that are a combined 18-5 on the season.
Vandy's two losses came against Cincinnati and Illinois. UNLV remains undefeated. And Arizona's loss at Oklahoma, a game in which it got pounded, is certainly understandable considering it came just four days after a 74-72 double-overtime home loss to the Runnin' Rebels.

FYI - Arizona is 3-4 on the season with its other loss coming against a 6-1 Wisconsin club's whose only loss came against Gonzaga. So, the teams that beat the 'Cats this year are a combined 24-6; not too shabby.

Now, let's look at Louisiana Tech's 7-1 record. Sure, the Bulldogs beat Miami of Ohio by 12, but those were the same Redhawks that got drilled by Temple last night by 22 to fall to 2-6 on the season. They beat TCU, but they beat the Horned Frogs last year, too. As I've noted previously, I look for how teams fare in non-conference "step-up" games and I see just one on LA Tech's schedule, an 81-52 loss to undefeated New Mexico. Otherwise, wins against U.L. Monroe, Northwestern State and Texas-Pan Am don't really excite me.

This is certainly a rebuilding year for Arizona as first-year coach Sean Miller has surrounded senior sharp-shooting guard Nic Wise (16.6 ppg) and junior forward Jamelle Horne (10.6 ppg, 8.6 reb) with a talented freshman class led by forwards Derrick Williams (14.6 ppg, 6.0 reb) and Solomon Hill (9.3 ppg, 5.1 reb). But Miller isn't afraid to make moves, yanking starting shooting guard Brendon Lavender (5.1 ppg; 34% FG) from the starting line-up after seven ineffective outings and replacing him tonight with Kyle Fogg.

This is a key game for the 'Cats, who have a tough game at 6-2 San Diego State coming up this weekend and visits from N.C. State and BYU two weeks from now before tipping off the Pac-10 portion of their schedule with a visit to USC on New Year's Eve.

Having won last night with Texas Tech - and playing with the profit reaped from 5 straight NFL winners the past couple of weeks - I'm more than willing to reinvest it tonight on Arizona.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Sammy Jankus

Reverse Barometer

I rate my plays 3, 4 and 5 stars. Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.

Louisiana Tech at Arizona

3* LA TECH +7

Geez, has the Arizona program declined to such an extent that the Wildcats are favored by just single digits over a sacrificial lamb like La Tech? It's a good thing former coach Lute Olson isn't dead or he'd be spinning in his grave over this insulting pointspread. Regardless of whether or not Lute is up to some locomotion later this tonight, I'm taking the home team in this battle between Cats and Dogs. I like Arizona by 10-15 points – so your play is on LOUISIANA TECH.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Dr. Bob

NBA Opinion

Sacramento (+12 1/2) over SAN ANTONIO

San Antonio is 9-9 straight up and the Kings are 8-7 straight up playing without the vastly overrated Kevin Martin, so favoring the Spurs by 12 1/2 points is excessive. Sacramento was 1-4 straight up and 2-3 ATS before Martin was injured and the absence of his ball-hogging, me first offense has created good chemistry for the young Kings. Sacramento was being out-scored by 9.4 points per 48 minutes in which Martin was on the floor, but they've out-scored their opponents by 1.8 points per 48 minutes with Martin on the bench, where he'll continue to be for at least another month. Using all of the Spurs games and the Kings games without martin would yield a line of Spurs by just 6 1/2 points using 4.6 points for the home court advantage (that's the advantage for a rested home team against an unrested visitor). The Spurs have played better at home and using their home games against the Kings' road games would give me Spurs by 8 points. The Spurs did beat Sacramento here by 19 points in the first week of the season, but the Kings were out-scored by 28 points in that game when Kevin Martin was on the floor, which was 13 points worse than the plus-minus of any of the other starters in that game. The only thing keeping me from making this a Best Bet is the Spurs' 23-6-3 ATS record the last 6 seasons as a double-digit favorite when rested following a loss. Of course, I don't think the Spurs should be favored by double-digits, but the trend does apply and I'll pass for that reason. I'm sure the Spurs will be motivated after 3 straight losses, but it's still unlikely they'll win by more than 12 points against a pretty decent Kings' team. I'll lean with Sacramento plus the points.


College Opinion

WISCONSIN GREEN BAY (+5 1/2) over Wisconsin

Wisconsin Green Bay is a good team and this game isn't likely to be a cake walk for the Badgers. In fact, this is a huge game for the Phoenix, as they rarely get to host a big name non-conference opponent. Green Bay lost last year at Wisconsin 57-77, but the Phoenix are 36-16-3 ATS in revenge games the last 7 years and my ratings favor Wisconsin by only 4 points. I'll lean with Wisconsin Green Bay at +5 or +5 1/2 and I'd take Green Bay in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

ROCKETMAN

New Mexico @ San Diego
Play: 3* San Diego +5

Lobos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. West Coast. Toreros are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Toreros are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. My power ratings has San Diego winning outright by 7.7 points. We'll play San Diego for 3 units tonight!

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

NHL PRO PICKS

Buffalo +102
NY Islanders +148
NY Rangers +179
Minnesota +111

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Executive

250 NJ Nets

250 UCONN

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Joyce Sterling

10* Houston +3 vs Cleveland

Houston has been an unpleasant place for James and the Cavs. Cleveland has averaged 71.3 points while losing three straight in Houston by an average of 17.4 points.

This is the Rockets' lone home game in a stretch of six of seven on the road. They'd won the first three before losing 90-89 at Portland on Saturday

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

RED ZONE SPORTS

ESPN Signature Statement Game

U Conn - 1

We're on the Huskies in statement game tonight as Jim Calhoun’s squad has won 2 huge games since losing to Duke 15 days ago. The Huskies won but did not cover in a 79-73 win over Harvard & The Huskies have been $$ in the Garden 9-2 in their last 11 games. & the ‘over’ has $$$$ at 70% clip in its last 11 outings.
Huskies by 10 in a shoot out.Play the Huskies

West Virginia - 17

Idaho + 5

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

TheProSource

San Antonio UNDER 201

Sac 4-16 Under Away playing with same season revenge
SA 9-21 Under in December

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Mike Neri

3* Golden St +2

4* Villanova -15

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

RAS

Harvard/Boston College Over 145

Providence/George Washington Over 149

Added Side play

San Diego +5.5

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