Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Evan Altemus

Atlanta -10.5

Under normal conditions, I may not have selected this game, but tonight's game is going to be on ESPN with a national audience. That makes all the difference to this young Atlanta team that is close to unbeatable at home when motivated. The Hawks also have shown the ability to blow teams out at home when motivated, even quality opponents. Meanwhile,Chicago is playing horrible right now, and they are coming off of a loss to New Jersey,one of the worst teams in the NBA. To make matters worse, that game was at home, where Chicago usually plays well. I look for them to struggle in this game coming off of a game last night. This game sets up as a perfect storm for Atlanta because of the way the Bulls offense has struggled, plus with the lack of effort Chicago shows away from home. Atlanta has also dominated this series recently, covering the point spread in three straight games and winning outright in four straight games. Look for the Hawks to get a blowout home win.

4 UNIT SELECTION HAWKS

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Rocketman

Atlanta -10

Chicago is 7-12 on the season while Atlanta is now 14-6 overall this year. Chicago is 3-10 ATS last 3 years as a road underdog of 9 1/2 to 12 points. Chicago is allowing 102.8 points per game on the road this year. Atlanta is scoring 103.7 points per game overall this year and 110.4 points per game at home this season. Bulls are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 vs. NBA Southeast. Bulls are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games. Bulls are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Bulls are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference. Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Bulls are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bulls are 1-11-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss. Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest. Hawks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games. Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Hawks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite. Hawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Hawks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Hawks are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Hawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Hawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win. Favorite is 16-7 ATS in the last 23 meetings. We'll play Atlanta for 3 units tonight!

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Lenny Del Genio

Milwaukee -3

The Bucks hot start has become a distant memory thanks to eight losses in their last nine games. However, Toronto is one team they can take advantage of. Not only do the Raptors allow over 111 PPG on the road this season, but they have been dreadful in the second game of back to back situations. In November, they were 0-4 SU/ATS, losing to Dallas, Orlando, Utah and Charlotte by an average of more than 21 PPG. Their first December game in this situation saw them get clobbered 146-115 in Atlanta. This past Sunday, they finally covered in this spot, blowing out a struggling Chicago team 110-78, but note the term "struggling." In fact, four of the team's five non-covers in this situation have come on the road. Milwaukee started the season by going 8-2 ATS in their first 10 games at the Bradley Center. Both teams went Under in their last game and that sets up a play on the Bucks. Toronto is 12-26 ATS when coming off back to back Unders while Milwaukee is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when coming off an Under. Take Milwaukee.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Fantasy Sports Gametime

50* Play New Jersey (-210) over Carolina

50* Play Chicago (-190) over NY Rangers

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

BLACK WIDOW

6* W idow Wiseguy CBB UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH on Rider +2

Rider is 4-0 at home this season and should not be catching points against La Salle. Both of La Salle's losses have come on the road this season with double-digit losses to both South Carolina and Villanova. La Salle is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after having won 4 of their last 5 games since 1997. The Explorers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Rider Broncs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Take Rider and the points.


5* Wiseguy CBB "Late-Night" BAILOUT on New Mexico -5

New Mexico is 8-0 this season and laying a very small number against a poor San Diego team tonight, thus we'll side with the superior team in likely a double-digit win. The Lobos are also 7-1 ATS this season, with their lone loss against the spread coming in their last game in a 17-point win over New Mexico State as a 17.5-point favorite. This team is N CA A T our name nt bound. San Diego is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, losing to Washington State by 37, S an D iego Sta te by 7, UC-Riverside by 3 and F res no St ate by 32. All of those four teams are nowhere near the caliber as New Mexico. New Mexico is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. San Diego is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing their 3rd game in a week over the last 2 seasons. Take New Mexico and lay the points.


4* on St. Joseph's +15.5

St. Joseph's is simply catching too many points against Villanova here Wednesday. This team only has one loss by more than 12 points this season, and that came against Purdue who are one of the best teams in the country. Villanova is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997. St. Joseph's is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game since 1997. This team lost 56-59 to Villanova in last year's meeting with the Wildcats, and they have been known for playing the best teams in the country very tough over the last decade. Take St. Joseph's and the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Tim Trushel

20* Indiana Over

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

BIG AL

NBA ROADKILL BLOWOUT WINNER

At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento. The Spurs suffered their 3rd straight loss on Monday when they fell at Utah, 104-101. They had a good chance to win the game when, trailing by 1, Matt Bonner threw up a runner, but the ball went around the rim, and out, and after two free throws, Utah walked away with the 3-point win. That defeat came on the heels of two other close losses -- both at home -- to Denver and Boston. But off three consecutive defeats, we'll play on the Spurs here, as San Antonio is a solid 37-23 ATS since 1990 off 3+ losses, including 6-0 ATS when its foe is unrested (Sacramento played at New Orleans last night) and the Spurs are off an ATS loss. These two teams met earlier in the season here at the AT&T Center, and the Spurs came away with a 19-point win, as 16-point favorites. But now, on the heels of the Spurs' losing streak, a big adjustment is being made by the oddsmakers, and the Spurs find themselves only a 12-point home favorite at the time of this writing (a staggering 4 points less than in November). That's way too low, considering that San Antone has won six straight in this series, and 13 of 14 overall. And here, in the Alamo City, the Spurs have won 10 of 11 vs. Sacramento. This will be a blowout. Lay the points.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Frank Patron

10000 Unit NBA Underdog Of The Month #2

Chicago +10.5

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Craig Davis

20 Dime - HAWKS

10 Dime - WARRIORS

ATLANTA HAWKS --- Complete mismatch here, as we get a tired and weary Chicago team leaving home where they just lost to the lowly New Jersey Nets (giving them just their second win of the season). Now, the Bulls have to lick their wounds, hop on a red-eye flight to Atlanta and get ready for a well-rested Atlanta Hawks team that has lost just two games at home all season. The Hawks haven't played since an 80-75 win over the Dallas Mavericks on December 5th. When getting 3+ days of rest, the Hawks are a respectable 2-1 ATS, and the last time they were in this situation they came back home to score 146 points in a 146-115 win over the Raptors.

The amount of points the Hawks might score tonight is endless, not only because of the rest but because of their 80-point output in the last game. If they can win (and cover) scoring just 80 points, just imagine what they're going to do tonight when they score over 100. They average 104 PPG for the season, but over 110 at home while allowing just 98 PPG, and with nothing of major importance on the horizon this isn't going to be one of those "look ahead" games. The Hawks haven't been treating the home folks kindly recently, dropping two of their last three, so they're looking to take it out on the Bulls tonight.

Chicago, to put it mildly, is in a major funk. They have injury issues all over the place, they don't have a tremendous amount of depth, and they're limping in off the heels of that horrible loss last night. You thik they want to be playing a road game tonight? They won't show up, period. The biggest difference between this year's team and last year's team that took the Celtics to the brink in the playoffs is the play (or lack thereof) of John Salmons. When he initially came over from Sacramento, Salmons was hitting everything and provided that much needed spark they were seeking. This year, he's been a train wreck. Just 12 PPG over his last three and less than 40% from the field through the first quarter of the season.

When you compare that to his 47% shooting the last three season, this year has been a huge disappointment so far. His FT% is down 8 points, his 3-point shooting percentage is also down 8 points as compared to the previous three seasons. Unless he gets it turned around, this team is going to continue to struggle as they have so many times already this year, especially on the road (2-9). Chicago hasn't covered a number yet this season on the second game of back-to-back nights (0-4 ATS) and tonight they should be even further "down in the dumps" after giving New Jersey just their second win of the season. This one won't be close... I'm calling for a 20-point Hawks win.

GOLDEN STATE --- Two things in our favor here tonight. First, New Jersey absolutely has to have an amazing amount of confidence after going into Chicago and getting their second win of the season, 101-100. Talk about over-confident... well, maybe it's not even overconfidence... maybe it's just a relief that they earned their second win of the season. Either way, there is absolutely no chance this team wins two games in a row. They haven't done it yet this season and I don't know why it would start tonight.

Secondly, the Golden State Warriors just scored a season-low 88 points in a blowout loss at Oklahoma City... and for a team that averages 109 PPG, that last output can't sit well with them. It just can't. In fact, the last two times the Warriors failed to reach triple figures, they came back the next game to score 108 and 126, respectively. And considering the Nets have scored 100 or more points just three times all season (never back-to-back), it's absolutely impossible for me to see them doing it tonight. They scored 101 in last night's upset win over the Bulls and nothing can convince me they get to that point total again this evening.

That win, combined with Golden State's most recent loss, gives us tremendous line value here tonight. Had things been different the last few nights, Golden State would likely be giving five or six points tonight. The Warriors are an amazing 13-3 ATS over their last 16 vs. teams from the Atlantic division and they've covered 9 of their last 13 overall this season. Meanwhile, the Nets are not only losing games, they aren't covering the number, having dropped 8 of their last 10 games ATS. All I'm asking Golden State to do here tonight is win the game by a few points... something that should be easily attainable under the circumstances.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

ATS LOCK CLUB

4 Units Wash St
3 Units UCONN
3 Units Wisc GB

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

MustWinSports

5 DIME KENTUCKY/CONNECTICUT OVER

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Jim Kruger

4 Units Warriors / Nets: Over 218.5

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Eric Degarde

3* Houston Over 194

1* George Washington -1.5

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Alex Smart

Missouri State: -16.5 / 4 units

Gonna continue to kick on the Skyhawks while they’re down. Tenn Martin has been bad in all facets of the game to date. While they rank above average offensively (#190 @ 69.3 PPG), their defense is a complete sieve as it’s allowed opponents to score an average of 80 PPG (#330) and shoot 49.3% from the field (#331). If that’s not enough, they’ve also allowed opponents to shoot at a 41.2% clip from beyond the arc (#330).

As for their opponent tonight, the Bears have been nothing short of sensational to kick start their ’09 campaign. They come into tonight’s contest a perfect 7-0 SU and have gone a $$$-making 5-2 ATS along the way. They’ve already cashed once for us this season when they went in ARK-LR and cruised to the 75-62 road win as 3.5-point chalks. They also have a solid outright home win against CUSA rep and conference title contender Tulsa. G Adam Leonard and F Kyle Weems lead the nation’s 141st ranked scoring offense (72.3 PPG) and 39th best shooting team (48%). If that doesn’t get you excited, the Bears are limiting opponents to just 59.4 PPG (#40) and a paltry 40.1% from the field (#89).

Though it failed to cover its last time out against Air Force, the Bears “D” more than held its own limiting the Falcons to just 48 overall points. Look for the offense to have a big night again in this spot against a Skyhawks “D” that’s been gouged by every one of its opponents. Take solace in the fact that Mizzou State is a stellar 10-2 ATS when they score 75-80 points in a game since 1997. With UTM allowing 80 PPG overall, look for that trend to improve by one after tonight!


Ball State: +12.5  / 3 units

The young Cardinals suffered an embarrassing home defeat to Butler their last time out in a game they shot just 31.7% from the floor and managed to tally just 38 overall points. They also turned the ball over 18 times, which made it close to impossible to compete against the Bulldogs. I’m looking for them to come out strong tonight against a Sycamores club taking the court for the first time in 10 days. Like the Cardinals, Indy State has a rough time scoring as well (68.1 PPG), and I really feel they’d have to shoot well above their seasonal mark from the field (45.1%) to cover a number of this magnitude. Ball State has taken on a tougher slate of competition, and I believe that will carry them towards the ATS victory in this spot. Making this position that much sweeter is the fact that BSU is a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road off a home loss the L/3 seasons.

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Fairway Jay

4 Units Hornets / Timberwolves Under 196.0

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

DC Riley

5 Units Milwaukee Bucks -3

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

[b]Matt Fargo[/b]

5 Units Minnesota Timberwolves: +4

The last time I ventured out on Minnesota was on Saturday and that resulted in an outright victory over Utah and this team is definitely turning a corner. After defeating Denver as 14.5-point underdogs on the road at the end of November, they have put together a five-game cover streak and this is significant since Minnesota went on a 1-10 ATS run prior to that. That included a 0-6 ATS mark at home but a loss to Memphis by a bucket on Wednesday ended that string as well and it has now covered two in a row at the Target Center. Timberwolves forward Kevin Love made his season debut against the Hornets seven weeks after he broke his left hand in a preseason game. He delivered an 11-point, 11-rebound double-double while playing half the game off the bench. His return is big as it adds more depth to the frontcourt and actually makes it a strength now. In three games he is averaging 15.7 ppg and 9.3 rpg. Last night Minnesota was stung with a bad shooting night as it shot 36 percent including 30 percent (3-15) from long range. Those nights are going to happen. New Orleans has no business laying wood on the road. The Hornets are 1-9 away from home this season and the lone victory came in Los Angeles against the Clippers and not the Lakers. In 20 games, the home team is 17-3 in New Orleans games this season so it is obviously that the host has had an edge all season. The linesmakers have no choice here but to make the Hornets a favorite and despite being 9-11, they are somehow still a very publicly backed team and that is certainly the case again tonight as the betting action is all over New Orleans early in the cycle. As a favorite of three points or more, the Hornets are 1-5 ATS on the season and this includes a cover loss just last week at home against Minnesota. The Hornets were favored by 9.5 points in that game and based on the venue switch and simple math, they should be favored by a point and a half at the most. The last meeting in Minnesota came last January and the Timberwolves were favored by a point in that game. Since then, Minnesota has remained pretty level while the Hornets have digressed considerably. The Hornets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and this season they are 0-3 ATS against teams that have a winning percentage below .250. The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a losing record. 5* Minnesota Timberwolves

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

LT Profits

4 Units Western Michigan -2.5

3 Units Cavaliers / Houston Rockets: Under 194.5

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Ron Meyer

10* WiscGreen Bay (+5) over Wisconsin

5* Saint Josephs (+15½) over Villanova

20* Connecticut (-1) over Kentucky

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Re: Free Picks: Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, December 9,2009

Alex Smart

4 units  Buffalo: +8.5

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