Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 8,2009

Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 8,2009

John Ryan

New Jersey Nets vs. Chicago Bulls     
Play: New Jersey Nets +7

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on New Jersey as they take on the Chicago Bulls set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 73% probability that NJ will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 56-23 for 71% winners since 2004. Play on road dogs having lost 12 or more of their last 15 games facing an opponent after having lost 4 of their last 5 games. AiS shows an 85% probability that the Bulls will score between 87 and 92 points. Note that New Jersey is a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they allow 87 to 92 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Bulls are just 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) when they score 87 to 92 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Bulls also in a poor situation noting they are a terrible 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams with a shooting percentage defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons. Bulls have lost 7 of last 8 games are certainly one of the worst teams in the NBA currently. Take the Nets.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 8,2009

ALEX SMART

Pittsburgh @ Indiana
PICK: Indiana +9.5

The Panthers don't look like the same team that has made deep runs into the tournament in recent years, but HC Jamie Dixon has coached his team to a 7-1 record thanks to a stellar defense. U-Pitt ranks #8 in the land, allowing just 55.6 points per game, and that fantastic 'D' was on display when it held the Wildcats to just 23.5% from the field and seven total points in the first half on Friday. However, its offensive struggles were also very apparent, as Gs Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker scored 42 of the team's 47 points. They're the only two players on this team averaging double digits in scoring, and they'll probably need to carry the Panthers on the offensive end of the court for the majority of the season.

HC Tom Crean knows all about trying to rebuild a once proud program. The loss to Maryland was just another setback in a string of bad basketball betting results in recent memory for the Hoosiers. G Maurice Creek is doing the best that he can to keep Indiana afloat, but his 16.7 points per game and 50.6% shooting from the field just hasn’t been enough. Since beating Howard and South Carolina Upstate to start the season, the Hoosiers have allowed at least 69 points in all of their games, and currently sport a defense surrendering 71.7 points per game.

The Hoosiers have at least shown a bit of resiliency after getting their doors blown off at Assembly Hall, as they’re 5-1 ATS in their L/6 games following a double-digit loss. It makes no sense for a PITT team that’s struggled to do much offensively be this large a chalk on a neutral court. Well aware of their familiarity with the venue, and the fact that a key cog (Jermaine Dixon) might be returning to aid their cause offensively. Still look for the Hoosiers to save face and compete the whole way through.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 8,2009

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on New Jersey Nets +7

The Nets have pretty much been an automatic fade this season at just 6-14 ATS, but the Bulls haven't been much better at just 5-12-1 ATS. Chicago is really struggling, having lost 7 of its last 8 games with 6 of those losses coming by 14 points or more. Yet, the public is all over Chicago blindly here because it is going up against the 1-19 Nets. However, the Bulls are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 home games, 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite, and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Chicago is getting too much respect here. Look for New Jersey to take the Bulls right down to the wire and for us to collect in the process.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 8,2009

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Sacramento Kings +9

Bottom Line: I know the Kings have struggled on the road this season, but they're not getting enough respect here. While Sac is just 1-7 on the road, it is 5-3 ATS. And while it is just 4-5 against New Orleans since the beginning of the 2007 season, it is 8-1 against the spread. The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and I'll grab them in the underdog role for 1 unit here.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 8,2009

Jack Jones

Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Hornets    
Play: Sacramento Kings +9

The Hornets do have Chris Paul back now, but this team is still just 8-11 on the season, scoring 99.3 ppg while allowing 103. The Kings might be 1-7 on the road this year, but they are only being outscored by 7.5 ppg in those contests. You get a below average team laying more points than their average defeat, and you'll see why this play has value.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 8,2009

Freddy Wills

Nuggets vs. Bobcats    
Take Bobcats +3.5

I'm going with the Bobcats here as they are 21-10 in their last 31 ATS at home. This will be Denver's 3rd road game in 4 nights and although they are averaging 107.7 ppg in their last three road games it was against an average scoring defense ranked 19th overall (PHI, SA, MIN). Tonight they will go up against #1 ranked defense in the Charlotte Bobcats. Denver's game last night against the 76ers was not as bad as indicated. Although they won by 10 and covered the spread they were down by 2 going into the 4th and then out scored them 30-18 in the final period. The hustle and effort it took to do that is going to impact them here tonight against a team that loves to play defense. Even the 76ers out rebounded the Nuggets and the Bobcats should have the advantage on this one as well as they are +1.7 rebound margin at home and Denver is -2.2 rebound margin. Charlotte is also 22-7 in their last 29 following a straight up win. Also note that Charlotte already beat Cleveland and Atlanta at home as underdogs. Take the points here tonight with the public all over the Nuggets and the spread moving in reverse order.

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Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, December 8,2009

Lenny Del Genio

Butler +2.5 vs Georgetown

Don't be fooled by Georgetown's 6-0 SU start. They have played no one of substance. In fact, their last four opponents were all non-lined teams with losing records. Their last game against a lined opponent was a 46-45 win over Temple as 10-point favorites. The Hoyas were a 16-15 SU team last year and have covered just 10 of their last 29 lined affairs. Butler has struggled against ranked opponents the last two seasons, but this is a phony ranked team. Undefeated neutral court favorites in the month of December are just 32-65 ATS since 1997. Take Butler.

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