Confederation Cup Final: Analysis and Picks

Confederation Cup Final: Analysis and Picks

Confederation Cup Final: Analysis and Picks
By SHAWN YOUNG
The final for the Confed Cup goes down Sunday. We don't want you going in blind, so we turned to a former oddsmaker for European soccer to help us break down the matches for us.

It’s been a wild ride in the Confederations’ Cup.

Hats off to anyone who faded this column Wednesday and took the USA to knock Spain out. A correct score bet of USA 2, Spain 0 paid off at 66/1 or more.

Rematches of group games are on tap in Sunday’s closing contests. Spain plays South Africa for third place in Rustenburg, and then Brazil faces a resurgent USA squad in the final in Johannesburg.

SPAIN -1, flat vs. SOUTH AFRICA 2.5 goals under -120

(June 20 result: Spain 2, South Africa 0)

Forecast: 70 degrees, sunny

Betting the side here could be poisonous as Spanish manager Vicente Del Bosque will be sending out his bench. That cuts both ways: maybe the players will be motivated, and maybe they won’t. The one-goal handicap is difficult to argue with.

The bet here is actually over goals. This third-place game means little and it comes at the end of a long season. Most players will have to report back to their clubs around July 10. This game is all about having a little bit of exercise and not leaving the field on a stretcher. The defending will be half-hearted, much like an NHL or NBA All-Star game.

Covers.com prediction: Spain 3, South Africa 2.

BRAZIL -1, -120 vs. USA 2.5 goals under -130

(June 18 result: Brazil 3, USA 0)

Forecast: 48 degrees, clear

This one’s all about which American side shows up: the one that folded against Italy and rolled over pathetically against Brazil in the group stage, or the one that destroyed Egypt and then expertly played smash-and-grab to steal the finals berth from Spain.

If you need a bet on the side, know that Cinderellas in major international finals usually get the Shower Scene from Psycho, not the trophy. The occasion overwhelms them. So a bet on Brazil at -1 makes some sense.

What makes more sense is a bet on the under this time. The playing surface looked terrible in Thursday’s semifinal and the local organizers have neither the time nor the money to re-lay the grass before Sunday’s final. This is a disgrace, but at least bettors can profit from it. The poor conditions actually work against a flashy team like Brazil, but that’s fully priced in the odds.

Brazil was a 1.5-goal favorite in the group stage game and won extremely easily. It would be 1.5 goals again, even with the USA’s recent run, if the field was actually covered with grass. In four matches at Ellis Park, there have been two goals total.

File this game for next year’s World Cup whether the game stays under or not Sunday. Goals will be hard to come by if the matches are played in sandlots.

Covers.com prediction: Brazil 1, USA 0. 

Blade
useravatar
Offline
208252 Posts
Administrator has disabled public posting

Board Info

Board Stats:
 
Total Topics:
44350
Total Polls:
2
Total Posts:
275628
Average Posts Per Hour:
2.9
User Info:
 
Total Users:
3464
Newest User:
Tee
Members Online:
1
Guests Online:
2227

Online: 
Erron

Forum Legend:

 Topic
 New
 Locked
 Sticky
 Active
 New/Locked
 Sticky/Locked

Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Contact Us | Advertising | 888-99-SPREAD

THIS IS NOT A GAMBLING SITE – If you think you have a gambling problem click here.

Disclaimer: This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Individual users are responsible for the laws regarding accessing gambling information from their jurisdictions. Many countries around the world prohibit gambling, please check the laws in your location. Any use of this information that may violate any federal, state, local or international law is strictly prohibited.

Copyright: The information contained on TheSpread.com website is protected by international copyright and may not be reproduced, or redistributed in any way without expressed written consent.

About: TheSpread.com is the largest sports betting news site in the United States. We provide point spread news, odds, statistics and information to over 199 countries around the world each year. Our coverage includes all North American College and Professional Sports as well as entertainment, political and proposition wagering news.

©1999-2013 TheSpread.com