THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

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New York Yankees -140

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Maddux Sports

3 units on LA Lakers / Orlando Under 201

Free Pick Orlando -2.5

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Rated Picks

Orlando Magic -2

St Louis Cardinals +110
Detroit Tigers -120
Detroit Tigers/Chicago WhiteSox UNDER 9
Chicago Cubs/Houston Astros OVER 9.5

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Jim Feist
NBA Finals 5-Star Inner Circle "Total" Crusher!


NBA (707) LAKERS VS (708) MAGIC.
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.

Reason: Inner Circle: Under the total.
Game 3 went over the total as Orlando shot a sizzling 63%. Can they do that again? No. Furthermore, look at the second half of the game: each team scored 49 points, as the defenses were much better and the pace was slower. The under is 2-1 in this series and the pace has been super-slow in the first two games, with two coaches who are preaching intense defense. That's not uncommon this time of the season, either. Orlando shot 30% and 41% in Games 1 & 2. The Laker defense has been effective, attacking Orlando on the three-point line while rotating and double-teaming Dwight Howard down low, who has been contained. In fact, the Lakers are on a 14-5 run under the total, so this committment to defense is nothing new. Look for another defensive battle with so much at stake.

Play Game 4 Lakers/Magic Under the total.
Line Now at Pinnacle Sportsbook  ( 201 )

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khaliagent

*St Louis Cardinals ML +100 (large)

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Craig Davis
Thursday's Lineup

40 Dime ---- LAKERS
(If the line is +2 1/2, buy the half point up to +3.
If your line is +3, buy it up to +3 1/2)

25 Dime ---- RANGERS -1 1/2 RUN LINE
(Must list Millwood as starting pitcher)

5 Dime ---- BREWERS -1 1/2 RUN LINE
(Must List Gallardo as starting pitcher)

LAKERS
(Buy the 1/2 point if your line is +2 1/2 and also if it's +3)
I can't really add anything to the massive analysis I had on the Lakers in Game 3 of the series. I still believe the Lakers are the better overall team and if Kobe Bryant could have hit his free throws, we might be talking about a Lakers 3-0 lead instead of a 2-1 advantage.Kobe personally blames himself for the Game 3 loss for a few reasons... all of which I don't see happening in Game 4 tonight. First, he blames himself for the missed free throws. Honestly, there's no excuse for him to miss as many free throws as he did in Game 3, and I read where he spent much of Wednesday shooting free throws on both ends of the floor. Like him or hate him, he's a hard worker.Secondly, turnovers. His crucial fourth quarter turnover to Michael Petrius could have been the back breaker. The Lakers had a chance to take the lead, but instead sent the Magic to the line on the other end. He must, and will, clean up the errors for the Lakers to grab a 3-1 lead.Third, points in the second half. Kobe simply wore down, scoring just ten points in the second half of Tuesday's game, likely due in large part to his performance in the second half and overtime of Game 2 in L.A. Bryant looked sluggish down the stretch and could have cost his team the game. You can bet, without a doubt, he will "will" this team to a win in Game 4.As I mentioned in my analysis Tuesday, the Lakers (aside from Game 3) have really started to step up their defensive intensity. In the first two games of this series, L.A. held the Magic to less than 89 points in regulation and they still didn't allow Orlando to score triple digits despite giving them five extra minutes during overtime. Orlando isn't invincible at home, and the road team (and underdog) when these two meet is covering ATS nearly 80% of the time. Play the Lakers PLUS tonight.

TEXAS RANGERS (on the run line) (must list Kevin Millwood) --- Are you kidding me? Am I to believe the Blue Jays have actually gone into Texas and taken the first two games of this series? Well, that's exactly what has happened and the buck stops here. Kevin Millwood won't let his team drop another game at home, especially against a team they have OWNED over the years at home. Toronto pitched a shutout last night, beating the Rangers 9-0. The night before saw Toronto beat Scott Feldman 6-3 (yes, I was on the Rangers that night too). Tonight, there's no chance Texas allows Toronto to get another win on their home turf.Kevin Millwood is sizzling right now, allowing just five earned runs in his last three starts (18 2/3 innings). For the season, his record might only be 5-4, but his ERA is 2.96 and his WHIP is 1.26, not to mention the fact he hasn't suffered a loss since May 21st, a 4-3 loss at Detroit. You see, it's actually beneficial for us that Millwood is pitching at home. For the season, his home ERA is 2.59 in eight games, with a 3-1 W/L record. For his career, Millwood is a better pitcher at home too with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.27 in 170 games started. In his last start, Millwood had his best game of the year, blanking the Boston Red Sox for 7 innings, allowing just seven hits in a 5-1 Texas win.
Toronto counters with Ricky Romero... a lefty who is about to face a powerful right-handed hitting lineup. Romero has allowed 13 earned runs in his last three starts and knowing the Rangers have only scored three runs in two games vs. Toronto in this series, he could be run out of the game by the 4th inning. Texas still dominates at home despite the losses, especially when listed as a favorite. Toronto, conversely, is still not a good road team and has dropped 9 of their last 11 away from Toronto. Play the Rangers on the run line as your top rated baseball play of the day.

BREWERS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (Must list Gallardo as starting pitcher) --- Sorry Rockies fans, but it's just not happening today. There's NO WAY the Rockies will sweep the Brewers in Miller Park, especially not with Yovani Gallardo on the hill. The guy has been absolute money much of the year, touting a 2.84 season ERA, winning 6 games while dropping just two, but the Brewers are 8-3 in his 11 games started so far. When he pitches, they win. His season WHIP is 1.08 which is absolutely incredible, but it's even better in his last three starts (0.98). Oh, and get this... Gallardo has allowed just one earned run in his last three starts and we're talking about 23+ innings of work. Folks, that's less than a 0.50 ERA.Colorado counters with Aaron Cook. The problem with Cook is that he's too erratic, sometimes dominating and other times getting dominated. So I checked it out... and it appears the guilty culprit is his walk total. When Cook has command of his fastball, he's very good.... like his last outing where he nearly blanked the St. Louis Cardinals. When he doesn't have command, he starts to struggle, putting base runners on via walks and then a few timely hits. The next thing you know, Cook is down 3-0, and if that happens today, Colorado has very little chance of mounting a comeback. Bottom line here is that Gallardo is on fire and Cook is average...
Gallardo dominates again today as the Brewers win going away.

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Al DeMarco
Thursday's Play

5 Dime - Los Angeles Lakers
Note: I'm instructing you to buy up the 1/2 point - see below

Resiliency defined: The Lakers have lost six games straight-up in the playoffs. They are 6-0 SU and ATS in the following game winning by 14 at Utah, by margins of 13, 30 and 19 at home versus Houston, by 6 at Denver and 9 at home against the Nuggets. Orlando, playing in a must-win situation on Tuesday, shot a blistering 63% from the field and still barely held on for a 108-104 win.The Magic barely won Game Three despite Kobe Bryant, who had 17 points in the final 5:41 of the first quarter and 21 at halftime, fading down the stretch, missing 10 of his final 13 shots.The Magic barely won Game Three despite outrebounding LA for the first time in the series, holding Pau Gasol to just three boards.Was Orlando's Game Three triumph surprising? Not really considering the law of averages was bound to go in the Magic's favor after they shot a miserable 29.9% in Game One and a slightly better - but still pathetic - 41.8% in Game Two. That same law of averages dictates they will not shoot 75% from the field in the first half tonight, as they did in Game Three, or finish at 63% overall for the contest. Nor will LA miss 10 critical free throws, as the Lakers converted just 62% from the charity stripe on Tuesday. Same goes with Kobe shooting 2-for-6 in the fourth quarter, missing all three of his shots from beyond the arc.Depending on when and where you placed your bet for Game Three, the final result was either a push or an LA victory. Even counting it as a push, the Lakers are on a 22-8-3 roll as a road dog; 16-7-1 when getting five points or less as they are for the second straight time in this series. Plus, the underdog is on a 7-1-1 ATS run in this series.If I was getting a greater potential return, I'd consider playing LA on the moneyline tonight, but at +115, it's not a wise financial strategy. Instead, I'll grab the 2 to 2 1/2 points. In fact, I encourage you to BUY UP the extra 1/2 point in either situation, making the Lakers either +2 1/2 or +3; thus we're protected should this one go down to the wire like Game Three. By purchasing the extra hook, should Orlando win by a bucket, we get the win at +2 1/2 or +3. A three-point Magic victory leaves us with a push at +3 if your original line was +2 1/2.

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Anthony Redd

5 Dime Indians
5 Dime Yankees run line
5 Dime Phillies run line

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igz1 sports

MLB
3* Philadelphia (Moyer) -110
3* Under 9 (-125) Detroit (Jackson) vs Chicago W.Sox (Floyd)
3* Under 9 (-130) Cinncinnati (Owens) vs Washington (Lannann)
Wednesday 3-0

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Winning Way Sports

MLB - 2 units on Cleveland Indians (+125)
- Greinke & Sowers

MLB - 2 units on Tampa Bay Rays (-140)
- Santana & Price

MLB - 2 units on Baltimore Orioles (-150)
- Olson & Uehara

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Steve Budin

25 DIME RELEASE
From The New York Crew

NBA Finals Game of the Year
Lakers +2 1/2

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SportsOddsAndPicks


NBA Finals
LA LAKERS (+2.5) over Orlando

Major League Baseball
DETROIT -115 (with Jackson) over Chicago
TAMPA BAY -140 (with Price) over LA Angels
OVER 9.5 RUNS Yankees at Boston

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Seabass
Day Baseball:

100* Florida
100* Detroit
100* Minnesota

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WeCoverSpreads

Mariners+147

We look for Garret Olson to be motivated today to face his old team Baltimore for the first time. He was touted as one of the top pitching prospects in the Baltimore farm system but last season struggled with a 9-10 record for the O's before heading off to Seattle this year. He has a good fastball in the low' 90's. His best pitch scouts have bragged over  is his over-powering curveball that proves to be difficult for both left and right handed batters. He also has a third pitch which is a decent change up that he has been working on throughout his career. Olson has a solid upside and is still projected to be a mid rotation starter one day at this level as he matures through his learning curve.

He is facing Koji Uehara who is coming off of the DL. Uehera hasn't pitched in three weeks. It's a known fact that most pitchers struggle their first game back from the DL as we've seen with guys this year like Ervin Santana,etc.  It takes a few outings to work the kinks out even after being on the DL 15 days or so. Baltimore has lost 7 of his 10 starts this season and there is no way they should be favored this heavy. They are a 25-34 team with a pitcher who is fresh of the DL who has been struggling all season laying big chalk against a solid team like Seattle. We'll grab the dog value here and love the revenge factor with Olson looking to show up his old organization.


Nationals Under 9

Micah Owings get the start for the Reds today as he has held the Nats to a .173 batting average the past three seasons. John Lannan who will be starting for the Nationals has pitched very well vs. the Reds in the past. Over the past three seasons he has given up just two earned runs and 10 hits in two meetings with Cincinnati. He should do well vs. a Reds team who is batting just .196 vs southpaws in their last 10 games. The Nationals batters are struggling as well batting just .222 vs. right handed pitchers in their last 10 games.

The first two games of this series have finished with low scoring games (4-2 and 3-2). We are working with a 9 run total this afternoon and seven of the past nine meetings between the two teams have fallen below this number. The Under is 4-2 this season when Lannan is pitching at home. The under is 16-5-1 in the Reds last 22 road games vs. a lefty.

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Scott Rickenbach

Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers Jun 10 2009 8:05PM
Prediction: over
Grade: Push (0)
Reason: Scott Rickenbach’s MLB Regular Play: OVER the total in Texas vs Toronto @ 8:05 PM ET: Millwood vs Romero – Kevin Millwood has impressive numbers so far this season but much of that was compiled early on. Note that recently, the Rangers right-hander has slowed down some. He’s walked four batters in three of his last four starts. He’s allowed 11 homers in his last 9 starts. Millwood has allowed 61 hits in his last 55 innings on the mound. Now he must deal with a Toronto team that has roughed him up in his career. Millwood has a 1-4 record with a 6.25 ERA in his career against the Blue Jays. Also, he certainly seems to be facing the Jays at the wrong time. They’ve averaged about 5.5 runs per game in their last dozen games and they’ve already feasted on Rangers pitching so far in this series. The Rangers have a 4.67 ERA at home this season and that’s among the worst in the league. As for the Blue Jays, they have a 4.74 ERA on the road and that’s among the worst in the league too. While Toronto stays hot at the plate against Millwood and the Texas pen, the Rangers should stay close in this game thanks to their own offensive prowess.

While Texas has, surprisingly, struggled at the plate so far in this series, the Rangers should have no problems with the offerings of Ricky Romero of the Blue Jays. The rookie Toronto southpaw is still trying to recover from an injury and, although his last start was better it should be noted that it came at home against the struggling Royals. Now he must deal with the powerful Rangers and he’s on the road where he’s struggled so far. Romero has given up eight homers in his last 16.1 innings on the mound. Yes, that averages out to a homer every two innings. Also, before enjoying some success against Kansas City, the left-hander struggled with his command against the Red Sox as he walked five in just four innings of work. He also gave up some big hits in that match-up. Speaking of big hits, Romero was throttled by the Orioles in his start prior to facing the Red Sox. The Rangers are 47-35 to the over after getting shutout. The Blue Jays are 7-1 to the over on Wednesdays this season. We’ll put this combined 54-36 trend to work for us here as the Rangers offense bounces back from yesterday’s shutout while the Blue Jays offense remains red hot.
Play OVER the total in Texas as a regular selection.

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M@linsky

4- Lakers / Orlando Under 201
4- Color/Milw Under 7.5
4- Red Sox RL +1.5
5- Anaheim/TBay Over 9

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Jack Clayton
Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, June 11, 2009
$25.00 Guaranteed: Get ready for TOTAL domination, on the baseball diamond, on the mound, and at the wagering window. This is a game where one team holds HUGE edges on the hill and in the pen. Get set to strike gold with this 4-Star Major Mound Mismatch, then sit back and collect! 6/10/2009

4* Blue Jays (927) at Rangers: Toronto has a terrific offense, tops in batting average and 4th in runs in the AL, as Adam Lind and Aaron Hill continue to spark offensive side of things. Hill said he felt energized after being given a day off. In April, as the Jays surged to the top of their division and led the majors in several offensive categories, Hill batted .365 with a .567 slugging percentage. Hill is second in the major leagues with 77 hits and was leading the Jays with 12 home runs. And this is a hitter-friendly paradise in Texas, as they had little trouble winning the first two games of the series by a combined 15-3. Toronto starter Scott Richmond (4-3, 3.99 ERA) has been strong and has already beaten Texas once (3.00 ERA against them, striking out 8 in 6 innings.) Texas is on a 3-6 run while waiting for Josh Hamilton to come back. Southpaw Derek Holland (6.54 ERA) has been awful. Play the Blue Jays.

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Tony Salinas

25*
Astros {R.Ortiz} (+130) over Chicago Cubs {R.Dempster}
2:05 PM -- Minute Maid Park
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to center field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 90.

25*
Twins {N.Blackburn}/Athletics {T.Cahill} UNDER 8½ Runs
3:35 PM -- Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 70.

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Ben Burns

Playoff GOY

I'm playing on ORLANDO. Practically all the comments that I have read about this game have been the same. The general idea is that the Magic played their very best in Game 3 and that the Lakers did not (Kobe "choked" in 4th) and yet the Magic still barely won the game. They feel that the Lakers will bounce back with a better effort and that the Magic have nowhere to go but down. Practically all the people that I have spoken to have had a similar opinion. I disagree with their logic. Let me start by saying that I have a lot of respect for the Lakers. They're very talented. They're very well coached. They're very hungry. They've also been very good to me as I've gone 6-0 ATS with my last six 'sides,' when playing on or against the Lakers, incl. 2-0 in this series. In four of those cases, I played on the Lakers. In two, I played against them. So, it's not that I'm "anti-LA." Rather, it's just that I feel much the same way about the Magic and am "pro Orlando." The Magic are more talented than people still realize. Stan Gundy has proven to be a much better coach than many gave him credit for. He gets his team ready and he's had them at their best in their biggest games. His play-calling, in my opinion, has been excellent. Keep in mind that the Magic are only a missed layup away from being up 2-1 in this series and that they defeated the Lakers in both regular season meetings. Let's also remember that the Magic just defeated the defending champs, defying the odds by winning Game 7 at Boston, and then more or less had their way with the top-seeded Cavaliers. Those victories were arguably more impressive than LA's series victories over Houston and Denver. Because the Magic won the last game, everyone figures that the Lakers can't lose two in a row. Therefore, we're getting a much better line to work with than Orlando bettors were for the last game. Although it doesn't guarantee it, the number is now low enough that a SU victory will very likely also result in an ATS victory. Why is the number lower? While, as mentioned earlier, many think that the Lakers will play better and they still don't believe in the Magic. Surely, Kobe and the mighty Lakers can't lose twice in a row? Sure, the Lakers will naturally be looking to bounce back with a victory. However, I don't believe that there's any reason why the Magic can't also bring their top A-Game once again. In fact, I feel that the Game 3 victory will give the Magic even more confidence and giving them the true belief that they actually have a chance. Additionally, that victory helped to take some pressure off. Now, they know that at least they're not going to get swept and that they got the Orlando fans a long-awaited playoff victory. With that "monkey off their back" it should allow them to shoot freely and easily - not that they need any help in the shooting department after shooting 62.5% last time out. The Magic are now 4-1 SU when trailing in a playoff series. On the other hand, even counting the last game as an ATS win, (some would have pushed) the Lakers are still only 3-8 ATS the last 11 when leading in a playoff series. Note that they're also an ugly 8-18 ATS their last 26 games in the NBA Finals. The Magic are 3-1 SU/ATS the last four times that they were home favorites of three points or less. With Game 3 finishing well above the total, the over/under line has climbed from the high 190s that it was in Game 3 to the low 200s for tonight's game. That's worth noting as the Lakers are a money-burning 7-15 ATS the last 22 times that they played a road game with a total ranging from 200 to 204.5. Conversely, during the same stretch, the Magic are a profitable 13-6-1 ATS (16-4 SU) when playing a home game with a total in that range. Playing at home where they've won five straight and eight of nine, I expect the Magic to "do the unthinkable" and hand Kobe and co. their second straight loss, covering the very small number along the way. I successfully went against the Magic for my NBA GOY (98-80 winner with Milwaukee on 4/13) but I'm playing ON them for my *Playoff GOY


Personal Favorite

I'm laying the price with WASHINGTON. It's not all that often that you find a team, with a record as poor as the Nationals, favored in this price range. It does happen occasionally though and in this case, I feel that the line, which has now fallen consideraby from its opening number, is actually very fair. That's because, in my opinion, this is a "pitching mismatch." John Lannan has become a consistent workhorse for the Nationals and after producing a solid 3.91 ERA last season he’s bested that so far this season, as he's got a 3.68 ERA so far. He’s 2-0 with four no-decisions in his six home starts this season. Lannan also has an outstanding 1.76 ERA at home and he's held opponents to a paltry .233 batting average here. He’s already faced the Reds twice in his career and he’s held them to just 10 hits in 11 2/3 innings. Cincinnati is one of the weaker offensive teams in the league and this is especially true when they’re on the road. Missing Edwin Encarnacion and Joey Votto has made things even tougher on an already weak Reds offense. That makes defeating John Lannan an even tougher task. Adding to the concerns for Cincinnati Thursday afternoon is that they are sending Micah Owings to the mound. The right-hander is 1-5 on the road this season and has lost four straight decisions. Owings has only averaged five innings per start over the last four weeks and he has a 5.48 ERA in his career day games. Indeed, Owings may not last long here. With 25 hits allowed in his last 19 2/3 innings, Owings is in poor form right now. Washington has hit the ball well in day games this season as they are tied with the Giants for 5th out of the 16 teams in the National League. Conversely, the Reds' .246 batting average in day games is only getting worse as the absence of Votto has hindered their hopes of turning things around offensively. I expect Lannan to continue to be the most consistent pitcher in the Nationals rotation, out pitching Owings and helping the Nationals get back on track. *Personal Favorite


Blowout" GOM

I'm laying the price with TEXAS. The Rangers haven't just lost the first two games of this four game series; they've been routed by a combined score of 15 to 3. That's not typically what we've come to expect from the Rangers here at home. Not this season, at least. Texas came into this series with an 18-9 mark at home while the Blue Jays came into this series with an 11-17 mark on the road. That also should provide some additional motivation for the Rangers, as no team likes to be beaten up in front of their home fans. Naturally, they'd love nothing more than to serve up some payback by delivering a "blowout" win of their own. Casey Janssen and Brian Tallet of Toronto managed to shut down the Rangers vaunted offense at home but I believe that it will be a different story with Ricky Romero on the mound. Romero is a rookie southpaw and the "mistake pitches" he's made recently are reflective of his lack of big league experience. Indeed, he's allowed seven homers in his last three starts. During that stretch, he has an ugly 7.16 ERA and an awful 1.837 WHIP. Romero is coming off a quality start (3 runs in seven innings) in his last outing. However, he still gave up two home runs and that was vs. Kansas City. Even without Hamilton in the lineup and even thought they've struggled so far this series, the Rangers at home represent a much tougher offense. Yesterday notwithstanding, the Rangers have fared very well vs. southpaw starters. Even with yesterday's loss, they're a profitable 13-8 vs. left-handers. Note that Romero has only made two road starts and his most recent one (at Baltimore) was a disaster, where he was battered for 11 hits and 5 earned runs in just 5 1/3 innings. After his last start he was quoted as saying: "...I still have some work to do. I haven't gotten a feel for that changeup that I had earlier in the year." Romero is likely to be no match for Kevin Millwood of the Rangers. After a rigorous off-season training program, Millwood is off to a fantastic start this season. He's in better shape than he's been in for years and his 5-4 record is nowhere indicative of how well he's throwing. He's got a 2.96 ERA on the season, is averaging better than seven innings per start and is holding opponents to a .247 batting average. Last time out, Millwood dominated the Red Sox, at Fenway. He went seven innings, allowing just one unearned run. He didn't receive a decision in his last home start but was also very sharp, allowing five hits and two runs through six complete. Overall, he's 3-1 with a 2.49 ERA here at home. While this price is typically a little higher than I prefer to lay, I feel that the situation, venue and current form of the starters make the current line actually quite reasonable. The Blue Jays are a money-burning 12-27 their last 39 as a road dog of +125 and +150. Toronto is also just 10-17 on the road when the total is a 10.5 or 10. Conversely, the Rangers are an impressive 14-6 at home when the total is listed at 10.5 or 10. I expect the revenge-minded Rangers to bounce back and improve to 5-2 at home this season with Millwood on the mound and 14-7 his L21 home starts overall. *"Blowout" GOM

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Triple Crown

4* Tampa Bay

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