Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Rocketman

Kansas City @ Cleveland
Play: Kansas City

Kansas City comes in with a 25-33 record this year while Cleveland is 26-35 on the season. Kansas City is 67-54 last 3 years when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Zack Greinke is 8-2 with a 1.55 ERA overall this year, 2-2 with a 1.93 ERA on the road and 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA his last 3 starts. Jeremy Sowers is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in all games this year, 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in all starts, 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA at home and 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA his last 3 starts. Greinke has a 3.38 ERA overall vs Cleveland since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City tonight!

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians    
Play: Cleveland Indians +1½-135

I really like the Indians on the runline. The Royals’ offense has been really silenced as they have scored three or less in 19 of 29, and have been shutout five times in the process. It makes spotting the opponent +1.5 runs look very value-laden. The Royals are 1-9 in their last 10 on the road against a team with a losing record, and overall are 40-83 in their last 123 on the road against a team with a losing record. They are subsequently converting 32.5% on the moneyline in this situation and the oddsmakers are asking them to spot a run and a half? The value is on Cleveland and I will play them on the runline.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Washington Nationals -122

The Nats have the big edge on the hill tonight with the southpaw Lannan, who is 2-0 with a 1.76 ERA at home this season. The Reds send Owings, who is only 1-4 with an ERA of 5.46 on the road this season. While the Reds have been a good road team this season, they are only 2-6 in the last 8 meetings in Washington. After dropping the first two games of this series, expect the Nats to bounce back strong at home with the better starter on the hill.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tom Freese

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox    
Play: Boston Red Sox

New York starter C.C. Sabathia is 2-7 with a 5.06 ERA in 9 starts vs. the Red Sox. The Yankees are 3-7 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 1-4 their last 5 games overall. The Bronx Bombers are 1-4 with Sabathia in his last 5 starts with four days of rest. Boston 14-4 their last 18 home games vs. winning teams and they are 40-19 their last 59 home games vs. lefty starters. Starting pitcher Brad Penny has a better than 8-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts and the Sox are 4-1 in his last 5 home starts. PLAY ON BOSTON (Penny vs. Sabathia)

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Freddy Wills

St Louis Cardinals vs. Florida Marlins    
Play: St Louis Cardinals

Just got confirmation that Hanley Ramirez will be out today. Which is what will make this a play for me. I mentioned Wellemeyer as a cold starter today, but I really think he has a bounce back performance against a Marlins team that his hitting just .228 vs. RHP in their last 5 scoring just 3.16 runs/9 innings.

This along with the fact that the Cardinals seem to be out of their slump scoring 13 last night which was more than they had in their 5 game losing streak combined! Wellemeyer has had success here last year he pitched a 3 hitter giving 0ER in 7.2 IP. He backed that up against the Fish on his own turf with an 8IP 4H 3ER a month later. The Cards are 16-6 in their last 22 against the Fish and I expect them to take this one as dogs.

Andrew Miller has been solid as of late, but his 1.62WHIP in his last 3 games alarms me especially after how well the Cardinals played last night with their bats. They are 11-5 in their last 16 games vs. left handed starter look for them to make it 12-5!

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Larry Ness

TEX (-155) vs TOR

Toronto went winless on a nine-game trip from May 19-27, getting outscored 53-23. The Jays returned home and won five of nine during a homestand, before heading back out on the road on this past Monday. They snapped their road skid with a 6-3 win at Texas on Monday and beat the Rangers 9-0 on Tuesday for their fifth shutout of the season. The 33-25 Rangers have now lost SIX of their last nine. The Rangers can't count on any help from Josh Hamilton these days, as he was placed on the DL back on June 2, in order to repair a partially torn abdominal muscle (he's expected to be out between four to six weeks). Wednesday's game was rained out but the same pitchers are scheduled to go for both Toronto (Romero) and Texas (Millwood). Kevin Millwood has done an outstanding job for the Rangers this year, despite owning a modest 5-4 mark in 12 starts (team is just 6-6). Millwood has allowed no more than three ERs in NINE of his 12 starts and his ERA on the year is an impressive 2.96. Getting the call for Toronto is rookie left-hander Ricky Romero. He's coming off his first win in three starts in his last outing, after missing more than a month with a strained right oblique. He gave up three ERs and five hits in seven innings to beat Kansas City 9-3 last Friday, which was his first win since April 19. Romero returned to action on May 26 at Baltimore, allowing 11 hits and five ERs in 5.1 innings, then allowed six hits and another five ERs in just four innings vs the Red Sox (in Baltimore), before that solid outing last Friday. Texas is 13-8 at home vs lefties this year (5.8 RPG), including 7-2 in home night games (7.6 RPG). However, like in last night's 9-0 loss to the lefty Tallet, the Rangers are struggling recently vs left-handers everywhere, batting only .198 against them since May 16. That being said, I'm backing Millwood (who's been terrific), as I believe the Texas bats will 'wake up' against Romero. Take the Rangers.

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LT Profits

Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals

The Under is a remarkable 20-9-1 in all Cincinnati Reds road games this season, and we expect more of the same when the visit the Washington Nationals in this late afternoon affair.

Cincinnati road games have averaged just a combined 7.86 runs this season, as the offense has generated just a .239 team batting average away from home. Do not expect much improvement today vs. John Lannan, who is the ace of the Washington staff right now. Lannan may be 3-5, but that is due to a lack of run support, as he has a nice 3.68 ERA overall and a fantastic 1.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP here at home. He has allowed three earned runs or less in all six home starts.

Now granted, Micah Owings has been shaky for Cincinnati, but he is coming off of a nice performance vs. the Chicago Cubs where he allowed two runs on five hits in six innings, and he is not exactly facing Murderers Row today. The Nationals are averaging just 3.20 runs while batting a pathetic .223 as a team over the last 10 games, as the bats are coming down to earth after a surprisingly hit start this year.

It is also worth mentioning that the Reds are hitting a measly .207 in their last 10 games themselves, and after Cincinnati win the first two games of this series 3-2 and 4-2 respectively, look for a similarly low scoring contest.

Pick: Reds/Nationals Under 9

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Vegas Experts

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

Boston will start right-hander Brad Penny who has won each of his three starts against New York in his career carrying a 3.12 ERA in those games. The Red Sox are great in this situation as they are 15-3 SU at home against division opponents and 11-1 SU after 4+ consecutive home games. Yankees hefty lefty C.C. Sabathia has had all types of trouble against the Sox in his career as he has 2-7 TSR with an ERA of 5.06. Go with the Red Sox.

Play on: Boston

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Yankee Capper

Pittsburgh Pirates +160
Chicago Cubs -140
San Francisco Giants +150
Chicago White Sxo -110

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jack Jones

Detroit Tigers -115 over Chicago White Sox

I'm going to ride Edwin Jackson tonight as he has a 1.31 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in six road starts and should post decent numbers tonight against a struggling White Sox team. Chicago is hitting just .211 in their last seven games and .218 at home this year. Detroit hasn't been knocking the cover off the ball, but Gavin Floyd has a 5.35 ERA on the season. Sure he's had some success recently, but that was against a couple of weak hitting teams. I'll go with the road team here today.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

IndianCowboy

Take the Texas Rangers -1.5 (+125) over the Toronto Bluejays

I almost made this a play today but I am just not a fan of the RL so I decided to take a play in the O's/M's game. The Rangers were spanked 0-9 yesterday and now they have their ace in Millwood on the mound. Yes, Millwood is an ace and has pitched extremely well this year. He is one of the reasons why this team is 33-25 and 18-11 at home as the North Carolina native has a 2.96era this year. Heck, he has given up just 2 earned runs in his last 13 innings. This includes his shutout at Fenway of Boston and helping the Rangers win 5-0. Its nice to get the Rangers at home, off a burial and with their ace on the mound today for a decent value on the RL with the dog price. Romero is a good looking lefty from Cali, but the only thing he is not capable of back to back quality starts in my book. Check out how his w/l works out: W, ND, W, L, L, W. He had a solid 9-3 win over KC but I look for him to have a let down today. The Jays are 1-6 when the total is set this high while the Rangers are 9-2 when the total is set this high. Besides, my over 73.5 for the Rangers for the season is looking good and it will be nice to pick up another W for that unit pendnig future.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

Now on a 12-3 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Tigers over the White Sox 2-1 Wednesday. For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the LA Angels at Tampa Bay match-up.

Critics of this play will immediately point to Ervin Santana's career numbers at the Trop, going 1-3 with an ugly 6.81 ERA in 5 starts there. That being said, I was thoroughly impressed with his last start, his best since coming off the DL, allowing 1 run on 6 hits over 8 2/3 stellar innings at Detroit! He was in a one word: Dominant. And that's exactly the kind of effort he can build off of tonight, against a Rays offense that's been relatively cold in losing 3 of their last 4. In case you were wondering, despite all his troubles this season, he has proven effective on the road, going 1-1 with a miniscule 1.17 ERA!

Opposing Santana is the Rays David Price, and while many bettors are all over the young lefties jock strap, I'm just not there yet. True, he's 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA thus far this season, but he's yet to make it out of the 6th inning in any of his 4 career starts, AND its still way too early to declare this kid a "must-play" as many bettors already have.

Also, while its true the Rays have hit righties well at the Trop this season, do not discount the Angels effectiveness against southpaws, averaging 5.2 runs per game against them on the road, batting .274 in the process! Again, I know it'll be hard for some bettors to side against Price (and therefore side with Santana at the Trop), but in this spot, a small but solid play on Santana, who appears to finally "be back" from his injury is the right move. Let's grab some of that plus money with the Halos Thursday night!

Take the LA Angels behind Santana over Tampa Bay and Price in this MLB match up.

1♦ LA ANGELS

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Karl Garrett

NBA Finals tonight, and I will look for the Lakers and the Magic to play to their second straight OVER in Game Four.

Yes, the first two games contested stayed well UNDER the posted price, but Tuesday the shooters found their eye, and we sailed well OVER the total.

Los Angeles has now scored in triple-digits in 9 straight playoff games, and a triple-digit output tonight will most assuredly put us in the OVER column once again.

As for Orlando, they have eclipsed the posted price in their last three playoff home games, and 6 of their last 9 playoff games overall have also landed on the HIGH side.

Have to stick with the emerging OVER trend, and play Game Four of the NBA Finals OVER the posted total.

2♦ OVER

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Chris Jordan

1♦ NATIONALS

Worst team in the bigs laying a pretty respectable price, makes you wonder what the oddsmakers are trying to tell you. I’ll side with John Lannan over Micah Owings, absolutely; as Washington’s most consistent hurler has given up more than three earned runs just once. He comes in off a stunning complete-game victory of the Mets last Saturday, and is now 2-0 at home with a 1.76 ERA. It was his first career complete game, and if not for an Elijah Dukes error in right field, Lannan would have tossed a shutout.

He should get the run support he’ll need against the Reds’ Micah Owings, who is a dismal 3-7 with a 4.90 ERA on the year. He’s lost two straight starts, including his last road outing, as the Brewers tagged him for five earned runs over six frames back on May 31. He’s 1-4 with a suitcase in hand and has a road ERA of 5.46. He’s also lost two straight to the Nationals – both last season – as the D.C. boys tapped him for nine earned runs in 12 innings last season.

I know we’re taking a shot with this team, you are any time you play the worst team in the league, but this is baseball, and any team can beat a better one on any given day. Take the Nats.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Mike Rose

Los Angeles Lakers +115

The Lakers got off to a blistering start in Game 3, but failed to execute late in the contest turning the ball over and missing shots to take a close loss. LA shot 51% from the field for the game, but was doomed by shooting just 61% (16/26) from the free-throw line. Lakers G Kobe Bryant was an abysmal 5/10 (50%) from the charity stripe after making 87% of his free throws up to this point in the 2009 NBA Playoffs. Kobe didnt take a shot until 5:17 remained in the first quarter and finished that stanza with 17 points, including a four-point play. Bryant seemed gassed and Lakers Head Coach Phil Jackson kept him on the bench for half of the fourth quarter while the Magic took a nine-point lead they would never relinquish. The Lakers are a respectable 4-4 ATS on the road in the postseason after covering a 4.5-point spread for Game 3.

The Magic managed to win by shooting the lights out on Tuesday night as they shot an NBA Finals record 62.5 % from the floor. Orlando shot 75% in the first half (NBA Finals record), but led by just five-points at halftime. Magic F Hedo Turkoglu was a big part of their success scoring 18 points, dishing out seven assists, while grabbing six rebounds. Turk will need to be a huge factor for Orlando tonight if they want to even this series with the Lakers. Another key for the Magic is the outstanding play of reserve G Mickael Pietrus who scored 18 points and got the steal from Bryant that propelled his team to victory. Orlando is 8-3 ATS in its L/11 contests with a 4-1 ATS mark at home in that stretch.

The Lakers will no doubt have their hands full with the Magic tonight, but that 62.5% shooting for Orlando and just a four-point win doesnt bode well for the home team. NBA bettors can expect to see the Lakers cover this spread tonight and take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tommy Gill

Texas ML -160 for 2 units

Millwood has done an outstanding job for the Rangers this year he has allowed no more than three ERs in 9 of his 12 starts and his ERA on the year is an impressive 2.96. The starter for Toronto is rookie left-hander Ricky Romero. He is coming off his first win in three starts and in his last outing, after missing more than a month with a strained right oblique. He gave up three ERs and five hits in seven innings to beat Kansas City 9-3 last Friday. Texas is 13-8 at home vs lefties this year averaging 5.8 runs a game including 7-2 in home night games with a 7.6 runs a game average. I believe this is a good spot for Texas having the day off yesterday to regroup on offense today.

Blue Jays are 5-13 in their last 18 games as an underdog.
Blue Jays are 3-9 in their last 12 games as a road underdog.
Blue Jays are 2-6 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Blue Jays are 2-7 in their last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Blue Jays are 2-9 in their last 11 road games.
Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.
Blue Jays are 1-6 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 Thursday games.

Rangers are 9-2 in their last 11 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
Rangers are 12-3 in their last 15 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game
Rangers are 13-3 in Millwoods last 16 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Rangers are 4-1 in Millwoods last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Rangers are 21-9 in Millwoods last 30 home starts.
Rangers are 13-6 in Millwoods last 19 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150

Home team is 13-1 in Dreckmans last 14 games behind home plate vs. Toronto

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Dave Price

1 Unit on NY Yankees -144

The Yankees are 0-7 against Boston this season, which only means they are overdue for a win against their bitter rivals. Boston has dominated this season series because its starting pitching has been superior but that won't be the case tonight. The Yanks send C.C. Sabathia and his 3.07 road ERA to the hill. He gives the Yanks the edge over Boston's Penny and his 6.51 home ERA. The Yankees are 9-1 in their last 10 games following a loss and an incredible 41-13 in their last 54 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Bet the Yankees.

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