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SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Eastern Conf. Finals TOY
I'm playing on Orlando and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both finished above the total, the last one doing so only when Lebron hit his three-pointer at the buzzer. Those results have helped provide us with the highest total that we've seen for the series yet. I feel that it's too high and that it's providing us with excellent value on the UNDER. Consider that the total for the first game closed at just 184. Including Friday's result, the Magic have now seen the 'over' go 25-24-1 on the road. However, the games here at Orlando have been a different story. In fact, the UNDER is a profitable 30-16-1 in games played here. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 82-51-3 here the past few seasons. The Magic, who haven't played at home since Game 6 of the Boston series, have seen the UNDER go 6-1-1 the last eight times that they'd played their previous three games on the road. They've also seen the UNDER go 4-1 when tied in the playoffs. While I don't normally pay much attention to the day of the week, it's worth noting that the Cavaliers really tend to turn up the defensive intensity when playing in front of the Sunday audience. In fact, the UNDER is 17-2 their last 19 Sunday games. While each of their last three games at Cleveland have finished above the total, the Cavs have seen each of their last four road games finish below the number. Those games finished with combined scores of 158, 179, 177 and 147. With the series tied, I expect another defensive affair. *Eastern Conf. Finals TOY
I'm playing on Cincinnati and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. After a low-scoring (3-1) opener, these teams combined for double-digits yesterday, as the Indians won by a score of 7-3. I expect this afternoon's finale to be a lot more like Friday's opener. Lee goes for the Indians. That's bad news for the Cincinnati hitters, as the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner has been in top form lately. Indeed, over his last three starts Lee has a 1.17 ERA and 1.043 WHIP. He's averaged nearly eight innings per start over those three games, recording 17 K's to just three walks. Cueto's seasonal stats (2.35 ERA, 1.006 WHIP) are even better than Lee's. He's gone a minimum of seven complete innings in six straight starts. He allowed one earned run or less in four of those games and four or less in all six of them. He's now seen the UNDER go 10-5 his last 15 starts, including 5-2 the last seven. Note that Cueto faced the Indians twice last season and recorded an excellent 2.19 ERA and 1.054 WHIP. While the first two games have been played in the evening, this one will be played during the afternoon. That's noteworthy as the Indians have seen the UNDER go a profitable 67-39-5 when playing during the afternoon over the past few seasons. Even with yesterday's game finishing above the total, the Reds have still seen the UNDER go 13-5-1 the last 19 times that they faced a southpaw. I expect those numbers to improve this afternoon. *Blue Chip
I'm playing on Tampa Bay and Florida to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's game was a tough loss for 'under' bettors. While the final score was 10-3, it could have easily been lower-scoring. In fact, that game had a score of 2-1 heading into the bottom of the seventh and was still 4-3 in the ninth. I expect a much lower-scoring contest this afternoon. Josh Johnson goes for the Marlins and he's been excellent. He lost his last start but still only allowed four hits and two earned runs through 6 1/3 innings. With that defeat, he's now 3-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in nine starts, averaging nearly seven innings per outing. He's been particularly dominant at home. In fact, in five home starts, Johnson has an outstanding 1.24 ERA and 0.881 WHIP, averaging greater than seven innings per start. He also has a very solid 2.70 ERA and 1.199 WHIP in two starts vs. Tampa, both those coming back in 2006. Shields' numbers are also very solid and he's coming off a terrific game. In that outing, Shields went 8 1/3 shutout innings and allowed just four hits. That improved his ERA to 3.43 and his WHIP to 1.277 for the season. He's had very little run support (two runs or fewer to work with in five of nine starts) and has seen the UNDER go 5-3-1 (or 6-3) on the season including 3-1-1 (or 4-1) on the road. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 10-5-1 (or 11-5) his last 16 road starts. I expect a well-pitched affair with the UNDER improving to 6-2 the last eight times that the Rays played a road game with a total of either eight or 8.5. *IL TOM
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Orioles won close games on both Friday and Saturday evening. However, they've been absolutely terrible when playing during the afternoon the past few seasons and I expect them to be at a disadvantage today. Including an ugly 2-10 (-7.9) mark when playing during the afternoon this season, the Orioles are now a dreadful 29-70 (-40.2) in day games over the past three seasons. In comparison, Washington's 46-58 (+5.1) mark in day games, during the same stretch, looks fairly good. One wouldn't know it by looking at yesterday's boxscore but the Nationals are actually a relatively solid hitting club. They entered the weekend hitting .275 vs. right-handers, while averaging a respectable five runs per game. Despite having cooled off lately, they've still scored a minimum of five runs in 11 of their last 14 games. Facing Bradley Bergeson, I expect the bats to come back to life this afternoon. The Orioles lost Bergeson's last start by a score of 9-1. In fairness, Bergeson wasn't all that bad, as he allowed only four runs in 6 1/3 innings. However, he hasn't been good overall. For the season, he's 1-2 with a poor 5.35 ERA and an ugly 1.634 WHIP in six starts. The O's are 0-2 in his road starts. Shairon Martis goes for the Nationals and he's had much better success. Indeed, he's 5-0 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.343 WHIP. His numbers are particularly solid. Despite a sub-par outing last time out, he's still 3-0 in four home starts (Nats are 3-1) with a stellar 3.29 ERA and 1.061 WHIP. Martis, who tossed a no-hitter in the World Baseball Classic, is averaging nearly seven innings per start in those home games. It should also be noted that Martis has been at his very best in two daytime starts. He's averaged eight innings in those two games, going 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA. (That's a whole lot better than his 6.25 ERA underneath the lights!) Opponents are hitting a mere 1.32 against him in those two afternoon games. On the other hand, Bergeson has a brutal 7.20 ERA in his two daytime starts, averaging five innings with opposing hitters batting .356. Note that the Orioles, 3-26 their last 29 Sunday games, have never swept a road series at Washington or Montreal. I don't expect them to do so here. I expect Martis to bounce back with a big game, continuing his "afternoon success" and helping his team avoid the sweep. *IL GOM
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4 Unit Play. Take Over 10 between the Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers (Sunday @ 1:05pm). Colorado picks up a big win on the road winning 4-3 at Detroit yesterday. They face Detroit once again today. The Rockies are 1-7 in Hammel's last 8 starts. In fact, Hammel is 0-3 with a 4.60era. Hammel is a pitcher that has proven to have some bounce-back capability which is one of the big things that I look for - having said that, the Tigers come off a loss, so they could look to hammer him more than usual today. So, I do expect the Tigers to put up to fair share of runs at home today. Keep in mind that Willis pitched incredibly well in his last start against Texas going over 6 innings and yielding 0 runs. Having said that Willis pitched lights out in his last game, with over 77% riding the Tigers today, I would not be a bit surprised to see Willis get shelled. Remember, its always nice to take a pitcher to have a let down after an amazing start. We see it time and time again where a guy pitches a complete game or a no hitter and then gets hammered in the following game. Thus, let's take the over for this contest this afternoon as I wish I could give you a great trend or what not as I usually do, but this situational similar to us with Jansen and the Jays yesterday.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Cleveland at Orlando
Pick: Orlando -1.5
My "Power Ratings" have Orlando as a 4.5 point favorite getting great value. Orlando knows that they are every bit as good as Cleveland if not better. In the two regular season meetings at home the Magic were 3.5 and 5 point favorites winning both 116-87, and 99-88 respectively. Holding the Cavs to a combined 39.2% shooting percentage, while shooting a combined 49.3% themselves. Through the first two games Orlando has shot 51.5% from the field to Cleveland's 47.2%. It's clear that Orlando poses offensive matchup problems for Cleveland. Particularly H.Turkoglu and R.Lewis. Who are a combined 28-56 50% from the field with 81 points. As the series has shifted to Orlando, these will stand out more and more.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Vegas Sports Informer
3 Unit Play. Take Minnesota -130 over Milwaukee
The Brewers have lost three of four after winning seven in a row and Milwaukee has a 6.55 staff ERA in its last four games after recording a 2.29 ERA during its winning streak. Minnesota has won 5 out of their last 6 games at home against Milwaukee and tonight on ESPN we should see the same outcome.
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