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Friday Service Plays

Re: Friday Service Plays

LT Profits

Chicago White Sox -120

The Chicago White Sox got blasted 20-1 by the Minnesota Twins yesterday after winning the first two games of this home stand, but we look for them to bounce back today at a rather short price vs. a Pittsburgh Pirates club not known for their fine road play.

Not only are the White Sox as a team looking to redeem themselves here, but their starter Gavin Floyd is also looking to recover from three bad starts in a row. All three of those outings came on the road though, and Floyd has two Quality Starts in three home outings this year. He has also allowed exactly one run in each of his two career starts against the Pirates, and he is facing a Pittsburgh lineup that is batting just .239 on the road this season.

In fact, the Pirates have had a high home/away variance for quite some time, which is one of the reasons they are just 36-75 in their last 111 road games overall, and that always make them a prime road fade when the price is low like this. Remember also that while their starter Zach Duke is having a nice year, he has allowed nine earned runs and 18 hits in just 12 innings over two starts vs. the White Sox.

Look for Chicago to put that 20-1 drubbing behind them in a hurry with a crowd-pleasing win on Friday.

Pick: White Sox -120

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Sportsbettingstats

Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers

The Magic shocked the Cavs by winning game 1 and the Cavs need to win this game tonight, as they will be in major trouble if the lose this game and head to Orlando down 2-0 in this series. The Cavs had the best defense in the NBA this year, but in game 1 the Magic put up 107 points on them and allowed them to shoot just over 55% from the field. The Cavs were up by 15 points at halftime and let the Magic back into the game, as in the 2nd half the Magic shot 59% from the field, went 7/13 on 3-pointers and outscored Cleveland 59-43. One of the main reasons that the Cavs lost is that their 2nd and 3rd scoring options had a bad game, as Delonte West and Mo Williams combined for 28 points and only shot a combined 10/29 from the floor including only hitting 5 of 16 3-pointers. King James did have a huge game going for 49 points, but he needs some help tonight on the offensive end of the court.

The Magic won game 1 on Wednesday night 107-106. For the game the Magic shot well going 43/78 for a FG% of 55.1% and the Cavs shot 43/88 for a FG% of 48.9%. This season the Magic ranked 4th in scoring (101 ppg) and the Cavaliers ranked 13th (100.3 ppg). On D the Cavaliers were the best in the league ranking 1st in points allowed (91.3 ppg) and the Magic ranked 6th (94.4 ppg).

Cleveland needs to get back to their bread and butter, which is playing solid defense. Dwight Howard had a big game (30 points 13 rebounds), but his supporting cast was huge, as Hedo Turkoglu had 15 points and 14 assists and Rashard Lewis scored 22 points on 9/13 shooting and hit the game winning shot. The Cleveland Bench was non-existent in game 1, as they had a grand total of 5 points. Even though the Magic won game 1 they have to hold onto the rock better, as they had 13 turnovers and the Cavs only had 5. Cleveland has to play better perimeter defense and not allow the Magic to have open looks from deep, as in game 1 the Magic shot a 3-pt FG% of 45%. All the pressure is on the Cavs tonight, as this is a must win game for them.

Staff Pick: The Cavs have to play better D tonight and they will do just that, as they will win this game, cover the spread, and tie this series at a game apiece.

Cavaliers 99 Magic 89

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Re: Friday Service Plays

DUNKEL

Orlando at Cleveland   

The Cavs look to bounce back from their Game One loss and build on their 7-0-1 ATS record in their last 8 games when playing with 1 day of rest.  Cleveland is the pick (-9) according to Dunkel, which has the Cavaliers favored by 10 1/2.  Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-9). 

Game 507-508: Orlando at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 122.766; Cleveland 133.302
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 10 1/2; 187 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 9; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-9); Under


MLB

Milwaukee at Minnesota

The Twins are coming off a 20-1 romp over the White Sox and look to build on their 10-1 record in Kevin Slowey's last 11 starts after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game.  Minnesota is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1.  Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+105).   

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 14.553; San Diego (Peavy) 15.828
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-140); Under

Game 903-904: NY Mets at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 16.283; Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.515
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-140); Under

Game 905-906: Philadelphia at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Myers) 16.852; NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.910
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 12
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 11
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+150); Over

Game 907-908: Baltimore at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hill) 15.011; Washington (Zimmerman) 14.007
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Washington (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Over

Game 909-910: Colorado at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 14.875; Detroit (Porcello) 16.285
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Over

Game 911-912: Tampa Bay at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) 14.291; Florida (Nolasco) 15.377
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Florida (-115); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-115); Over

Game 913-914: Cleveland at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Reyes) 14.921; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.493
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); Over

Game 915-916: Toronto at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 15.731; Atlanta (Kawakami) 14.235
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-165); Over

Game 917-918: Texas at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 15.325; Houston (Paulino) 16.678
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-110); Under

Game 919-920: Pittsburgh at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 13.544; White Sox (Floyd) 14.912
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+105); Over

Game 921-922: Milwaukee at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 15.313; Minnesota (Slowey) 16.228
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+105); Under

Game 923-924: Kansas City at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 15.275; St. Louis (Wellemeyer) 15.025
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Under

Game 925-926: Arizona at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Buckner) 14.935; Oakland (Cahill) 15.956
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-145); Over

Game 927-928: San Francisco at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Johnson) 15.513; Seattle (Vargas) 13.837
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+120); Under

Game 929-930: LA Angels at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 17.167; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.007
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+115); Under


NHL

Detroit at Chicago

The Red Wings look to build on their 10-4 record in their last 14 road games.  Detroit is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 2.  Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+120). 

Game 9-10: Detroit at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 13.720; Chicago 11.930
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+120); Under

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Vegas Experts

New York Mets at Boston Red Sox

The Mets have lost four in a row while Boston has won three straight. Despite playing at home, the Red Sox are underdogs. How can that be? Well, because they're facing Johan Santana, who has a phenomenal 30-5 team start record since 1997. if he did not walk a batter in his last start. An American League veteran, Santana has a career 2.43 ERA vs. Boston. The Sox trot out Dice-K, who is fresh off the DL. He was horrible in two starts prior, posting a 12.80 ERA.

Play on: NY Mets

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Nick Parsons

LA Angels @ LA Dodgers -125

The Los Angeles Dodgers haven't done well in interleague play in recent years, but that might change given the way they're playing right now. The Dodgers look to move 17 games over .500 for the first time in more than seven years Friday when they open a three-game home series against the Los Angeles Angels. Scioscia's team will get its first look Friday at Clayton Kershaw (2-3, 4.60 ERA), who took a no-hit bid into the eighth inning against Florida on Sunday. Kershaw, who gave up a double to lead off the eighth, allowed one run and one hit over seven-plus innings of a 12-5 victory and I look for him to have another great game; play on the DODGERS!

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Re: Friday Service Plays

GINA

Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers

Go with Orlando to cover the spread. The Magic have covered the spread in the last 6 games against the Cavaliers, 11-1 ATS in its last 12. Expect a close battle between these rivals tonight in Game 2 at Quicken Loans Arena. Orlando is 6-0 ATS in the last six games in Cleveland and the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 11 contests.

Orlando Magic +9


Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees

Go with the Phillies to upset the Yankees. Philadelphia has played well away from home, 14-5 on the road this season and right-hander Brett Myers has pitched superbly on the road. Myers is 3-0 with a 4.97 ERA in four road starts. Meanwhile, New York’s right-hander A.J. Burnett has not won a game in four starts at the new Yankee Stadium ballpark.

Philadelphia Phillies +145

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Mr A

Tampa Bay Rays -110

St. Louis Cardinals -130

Orlando Magic +9

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Vernon Croy

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves    
Play: Toronto Blue Jays   

The Blue Jays have the superior pitcher on the mound here tonight and this would be a premium play for me if the line was not above my personal limit of -150. Roy Halladay (8-1, 2.78 ERA) is the best pitcher in the Majors and the Braves have not faced him before so I look for them to struggle against Doc tonight. The Jays are 9-1 in their last 10 games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and they are 5-1 in their last 6 road games when the posted total is 7.0 to 8.5 points. The Jays are 7-1 in Halladay's last 8 starts against a NL East team and they are also 6-1 in their last 7 games against the Braves. Halladay has an ERA of just 1.12 over his last 3 starts and and ERA of just 1.86 on the road this season while averaging 7.2 innings per start. The Braves are hitting just .247 in night games this season and the Jays are hitting .304 as a team on the road this season while averaging 5.6 rpg. I look for the Jays to bounce back big tonight after being swept out of Boston last night.

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Doc's Sports

LAA Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers    
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

Look who is still playing at home. The Dodgers just showed the Mets who the boss is, and are now an amazing 17-3 at Chavez. LA is 3-0 in Kershaw's home starts. What could possibly motivate this team as they hold a 9-game division lead? Answer: Angels.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins May
Prediction: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota is 22-4 their last 26 home games vs. lefty starters and they are 41-15 their last 56 games as home favorites. The Twins are 21-7 vs. AL Central teams and they are 39-12 their last 51 Interleague games. Milwaukee is 3-7 their last 10 meetings with Minnesota and they are 1-6 their last 7 Interleague road games. The Brewers are 3-9 in the last 12 starts made by Manny Parra and they are 0-5 with Parra as an underdog. PLAY ON MINNESOTA - (Slowey vs. Parra)

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Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on LA Dodgers -123

The Dodgers are 17-3 at home this season and I'll back them tonight behind Clayton Kershaw and his 0.95 home ERA. The Dodgers are a perfect 3-0 in his home starts this season. LAD is 11-0 against the money line in home games after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season and 11-1 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. Without Vlad or Abreu, I don't see the Halos having enough fire power to compete against Kershaw tonight.

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Matt Rivers

For Friday take the Brewers in Minnesota.

This is certainly far from being a mortal lock but the way Manny Parra has been pitching of late and the way the Brew Crew have been taking care of business over the past month or so I'll take my chances with Milwaukee here at this price.

It's tough to go against Ron Gardenhire's Twins at the Metrodome as they win a lot more than they lose there with the advantage of their turf as well as the roof and other factors but over the past month or so Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and the Brewers have been arguably the best team in all of baseball and should get another victory today.

Losing Rickie Weeks for the season certainly did not help anything but this Milwaukee team is extremely athletic and talented and should be just fine against Kevin Slowey today. I like the Minnesota righthander as the guy is good but he is also not a guy that I totally fear at all.

Parra was horrific to start the season but has settled in nicely over his past three or four starts and being a lefty against Mauer and Morneau is not a bad thing. I am not expecting a gem at all from the Southpaw but Milwaukee has been playing the much better baseball of late and therefore will back them here, even on the road.

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John Ryan

Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals    
Play: Baltimore Orioles

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Baltimore as they face the Washington Nationals in inter-league play slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 112-9 making 59 units since 2003. Play on all dogs with a money line of +100 or higher after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games facing an opponent after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Washington is just 17-32 (-15.5 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 9-23 (-18.9 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons; 6-18 (-16.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons; 9-23 (-14.2 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. Zimmerman has not pitched well at all posting an 8.47 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 6.35 ERA for the season spanning 6 starts. Take Baltimore.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

WUNDERDOG

Orlando at Cleveland
Pick: UNDER 188.5

Game one in this series was a shootout as the teams combined for 213 points. Orlando shot a ridiculous 55.1% from the field as their three-point game came back to them. As a result, we grab 4 full points in value in game two with the line rising to 188.5. I expect both teams to bring a better defensive effort here. That game one was a fluke. Prior to that game, Cleveland hadn't allowed more than 85 points in a playoff game! They were averaging just 80 ppg allowed in the playoffs. Orlando had allowed 100+ just twice in 13 playoff games, allowing around 90 on average. The teams combined for a 15-6 UNDER mark in the playoffs going into that game. Expect defensive adjustments. This game figures to be more defensive as Cleveland is 24-10 to the UNDER after scoring 100+ points. They are also 28-12 to the UNDER off of one day of rest. Orlando comes into this game at 52-21 to the UNDER after scoring 100+ in their previous game. They are 29-12 UNDER this season vs. teams that average 100+ ppg. The Magic are also 10-1 UNDER the past two seasons following a game in which they made 55%+ of their shots while Cleveland is 11-2 UNDER this steason after scoring 60+ in the first-half of their prior game. The play here is contrarian after seeing these teams light up the scoreboard last game, but I'm looking for things to return to form and for this game to go UNDER.

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Yankee Capper

NHL
Detroit/Chicago Over 5.5

MLB
New York Yankees -155
San Diego Padres -140
Minnesota Twins -125
St. Louis Cardinals -125

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Re: Friday Service Plays

JACK JONES

Cleveland Indians -108

The Reds have obviously struggled at home where they are just 8-11 on the year.  They haven't had much offense in Cincinnati this year, scoring just 4.4 runs per game, and they'll need as many as they can score tonight with starter Bronson Arroyo on the mound.  Arroyo is somehow 5-3 on the season, but his numbers a terrible, particularly at home.  In 3 starts in Cincy, Arroyo is 1-2 with a 16.34 ERA and a 2.53 WHIP. Cleveland is currently scoring 6.2 runs per game and hitting .296 on the road this year.  Cleveland's line up should feast on Arroyo tonight.

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Dwayne Bryant

Half-unit play on Orlando Magic +9

Cleveland is a very public team and everyone expects them to bounce back at home and even this series. And while I think they do just that, I also think this number is way too high.

There's a reason Orlando has won three of four against LeBron and the Cavs this season; The Magic match up extremely well with Cleveland. Their perimeter shooting (Turkoglu, Lewis, etc.) combined with Dwight Howard's presence down low presents all kinds of problems for the Cavs.

LeBron was on absolute fire in Game 1, but that also led to his teammates standing around looking more like spectators than anything else. There was little motion, ball movement or strategy. And while I expect LeBron to put the team on his back again and get the win tonight, I don't expect them to win in a blowout.

I like how Orlando matches up with the Cavs, so I'll gladly take +9 with the Magic tonight for a half-unit.

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Dave Price

1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -142

The Tigers enter Interleague play having won 6 in a row to improve to 14-5 at home this season. The Rocks are only 9-14 on the road and they will not have the edge tonight. Detroit sends young gun Rick Porcello to the hill, who is 3-0 with an ERA of just 1.00 over his last 3 starts. He should be plenty good enough to get the job done tonight against a Rockies team averaging only 4.1 runs per game on the road, considering that his team is getting 6.6 runs per game at home. Colorado is 1-14 against the money line in road games after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 3.7 to 8.2 in these games. Take the Tigers.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
265 - 172 run  60 %  (10-2  last  12 )

FREE play FRI Baltimore

============================================

Free Selection from Totals4U
Friday's free selection: Arizona/Oakland over 9 1/2

============================================

EZ'S FREE SELECTION

Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers

(910) Detroit Tigers -$140

(Listing Porcello and Jimenez)

I'm going to keep riding the Tigers as they keep providing
us with free winners! Detroit's rookie starting pitcher Rick
Porcello has great stuff and is starting to put it together. In
his last three starts Porcello is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.00.
I look for him to have another great outing against a Rockies
team that is one of the worst hitting teams in MLB. The
Rockies starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez is throwing 99 mph
fastballs, but he is very hittable and very erratic.
I look for the Tigers win again!

2009 Free Selections Record  76-62  (55.1%)


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GREG SHAKER

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Play: Cubs +135

Note: Great odds here with Zamby on the mound and perhaps Peavy being a bit unfocused with all of the trade talk going on. Zambrano likes the road, and he likes being a road dog. They Cubs are 3-0 last 3 he has thrown away from Wrigley and 6-1 the last 7 times he has done so as a Dog. He is a competitor and his team has lost 4 straight. This has good performance written all over it. Zambrano, who needs one victory for 100 in his career, has had no trouble beating San Diego lately. The three time All-Star is 6-1 with a 1.80 ERA in eight starts against the Padres since 2003, and 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in four career outings at Petco Park. The only blemish came in 2007, when he gave up one run and two hits in a complete game, 1-0 loss. The Cubs do like to play here and are 7-1 the last 8 times they have played this team. San Diego has lost 5 of the last 6 that Peavy has thrown and that is primarily do to their lack of scoring runs. They are not scoring right now for sure but they are managing to win games. However, this can't last forever with SD batting right near the .200 mark over the last 10 played. The Cubs pose a lot more of a threat than the Giants and Reds and at this price a Cubs Play is a Must Do.

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