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Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

CAR (+70) vs PIT

What the Hurricanes couldn't prevent the Penguins from doing was winning. Since a team taking a 2-0 series lead goes on to win about 85 percent of the time, the Hurricanes can't realistically expect to win the series if they go back to Raleigh without a split in Pittsburgh. Despite numerous scoring chances by both teams, Game 1 was tighter defensively than any of those during the Penguins-Capitals series, and Pittsburgh coach Dan Bylsma knows Carolina wants Game 2 to be similar. Look for CAROLINA to improve to a perfect 5-0 (+8 units) when trailing in a playoff series!

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jrtips

CUBS vs. CARDINALS

After being shut down in the first two games of the series, the Cubs look to avoid being swept by the Cardinals. Chicago (21-17) arrived in St. Louis (23-17) winners of 11 of 15 averaging 5.7 runs in those games but has had no offense against the Cardinals. The Cubs just had three hits in Tuesday's 3-0 and Wednesday' 2-1 loss. The Cubs will have trouble again today getting their offense on track versus Adam Wainwright (3-2, 3.83 ERA). Wainwright is coming off one of the best starts of his career on Saturday when he allowed only one run, two hits and two walks with seven strikeouts. Wainwright is 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA in two starts against Chicago this season, with the Cardinals winning each. Albert Pujols had two hits, but has gone seven games without a homer and five without an RBI. The reigning NL MVP is hitless in five at-bats against today's starting pitcher Sean Marshall (2-2, 4.02). In Marshall's last start, he gave up two runs and five hits in five innings of a 4-2 win over the Brewers.He is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two outings against the Cardinals this season. Both of these teams are having trouble scoring and it won"t help that they are both facing tough pitchers. This series has been low scoring and today wont be any different.

TAKE UNDER 8 1/2 runs

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Florida Marlins +105

I'll back the Marlins at home at a great price tonight behind the lefty Miller. Miller was solid in his only home start of the season, picking up the win and posting a respectable 3.60 ERA. He's been effective against Arizona in his career, posting an ERA of 2.13 and a WHIP of 1.105. This success comes as no surprise as the weak-hitting D-backs, who average only 3.1 runs per game on the road, struggle like crazy against lefty starters. In fact, the Snakes are only 4-9 against southpaw starters this season and 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Diamondbacks are only 3-7 in the last 10 meetings and I like Florida's chances at the plate against Scherzer as the Diamondbacks are just 3-11 in his last 14 starts and 1-7 in his last 8 road starts. Bet the Fish.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Doc's Sports

Arizona D-Backs vs. Florida Marlins   
Play: Arizona D-Backs   

Max Scherzer, the young right-hander for the Arizona Diamondbacks, finally has the monkey off his back. Scherzer, a first-round pick in 2007 went 0-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 16-seven starts-as a rookie last season. Last Saturday he pitched six scoreless innings against the Braves to earn his first career win. It took him until his 14th start to get his first win. Now, with that win under his belt, the floodgates will open, and many more will follow. The kid has great stuff. Looking for him to win again today against a Marlin team that is just 8-11 at home this season.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Dave Malinsky

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates

Yes, we are in play again here – there will not be any mystery. For the fourth day in a row the markets insist on sending out the worst team in the major League’s in the role of the favorite, at the very same time that the team they are playing adds to a win streak, which means that not only do we get the superior team here, but also one playing with a much higher level of confidence. And we all know what the confidence can mean in the latter stages of a close baseball game.

Craig Stammen gets the call for Washington tonight because the Nationals want to give Daniel Cabrera at least one start off to get his head back together, or perhaps even more. And while Stammen checks in with a 4-2/1.80 at AAA, he is an awful fit here. Stammen pitches to contact, striking out only 14 batters in those 40 innings in the Minors, and that is suicidal with the worst defense in the Major Leagues behind him (and one that rivals the worst that we have ever tracked). We are not even sure that he is much of a prospect anyway. The former 12th round draft choice worked to an ugly 1-4/7.33 at AAA LY before coming up with a new four-seam fastball this spring that has made things better, but those strikeout counts are alarming, and the fact that he has only gone beyond the sixth inning once so far brings that awful Washington bullpen into play again.

There is value found here because Ian Snell has been an underachiever so far, but we believe his stuff is better than the numbers can show, and that rain-shortened outing vs. Colorado brings him in here fresh. His last two road starts were solid performances against the Brewers and Mets in which he allowed only four runs in 13 innings, and with a confident team behind him he brings more than enough to trust in this favorable price range.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

MTi Sports

Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros

The Astros are 26-4 when Roy Oswalt starts as a home favorite after a quality start on the road and the Brewers are 0-13 in the last game of a three game road series when they split the first two and they were favored in game two. Consider the Astros.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Yankee Capper

NBA
Denver Nuggets +5.5

MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates +115
Detroit Tigers -130
Philadelphia Phillies -120

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jack Jones

Nuggets/Lakers OVER 211

I'm backing a system that has gone 46-14 (76.7%) since 1996 that says to play the over if the total is 210 or greater and the road team is coming off a close loss by 3 points or less against an opponent who scored 105 points or more. The Lakers are 32-13 OVER off a close home win by 3 points or less since 1996 and 14-4 OVER coming off two straight wins at home this year. Denver is averaging 111 ppg in the playoffs while the Lakers are putting up 108 ppg at home on the season.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Randall the Handle

Pittsburgh +1.06 over WASHINGTON

The pathetic Nationals are reeling so badly right now that any take-back against them has to be considered the prudent move. They just can’t win and with each loss it gets more difficult to pick up a W. Tonight they’ll rely on a rookie pitcher again with the worst bullpen in history backing him up. Craig Stammen had a decent ERA at Triple-A Syracuse but ERA does not tell the whole story. He finished the season last year 1-4 with a 7.33 ERA in nine appearances. Eight of those nine appearances were starts with Triple-A Columbus of the International League and it’s also worth noting that he started the year at Class-A. This season at Syracuse he struck out just 14 batters in 40 innings and now he’s being asked to step into a pressure-filled role at the highest level there is. If he can’t whiff minor-leaguers, major-leaguers should smack him around. The Nats are making a lot of premature moves and this can’t turn out good for them. This is a team in big trouble and with the Pirates winning six straight and feeling great they surely have an edge here. Play: Pittsburgh +1.06 (Risking 2 units).

ATLANTA –1½ +1.77 over Colorado

Unlike the Nats, the Braves bring pitching prospects along slowly and only promote them when they’re absolutely ready to make the leap from the minors to the majors. Enter Kris Medlan, a guy that’s been tearing it up in the minors. Pitching this year for the Gwinnett Braves of the Triple-A International League he’s gone 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA. In 37 innings he’s allowed just 20 hits, none of them homeruns, while striking out 44. In three May starts his ERA was 0.45. The kid is ready and the Braves hitters will be a little juiced up in support of Medlan. Aaron Cook has made eight starts and while he’s 2-1, the team is just 2-6 when he starts. Cook has made four road starts and has been completely crushed in all but one of them. That one quality start was in San Diego and that park makes everyone look good. The Braves have won nine of its last 13 games, they’ve scored 20 runs in the last two days against the Rockies and they should have an easy time of it again here. Play: Atlanta –1½ +1.77 (Risking 2 units).

Denver +2.20 over L.A. LAKERS

The Nuggets pretty much had the lead the whole game in the opener of this series only to fall behind with about 50 seconds left in the fourth quarter. Had they converted a higher percentage of their free throws, the game might not have been close. Anyway, there is no denying that the Nuggets can go toe-to-toe with the Lakers and then some. Game one was a good lesson and even though they lost, the Nuggets have to be feeling pretty good about their chances here. Carmello Anthony was terrific, Chancey Billups is a playoff monster, the defense is terrific and they’ll make the adjustments and compete again in this one. The Lakers are almost always overpriced and while the 5½ points is tempting, there is just too much value straight up to pass on the Nuggets. Play: Denver +2.20 (Risking 2 units)

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Who2BetOn

The Toronto Blue Jays were flying high with the best record in the American League coming into this series with the Boston Red Sox, but the Sox have asserted themselves at home and we look for them to complete the three-game sweep in decisive fashion.

Boston got to the previously hot Brett Cecil last night in an 8-3 beat-down that featured David Ortiz finally hitting his first home run of the year. Now, they get to face Robert Ray, who was terrible in his only road start when he allowed six runs and 10 hits in 6.1 innings vs. the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim. He now must contend with a Red Sox lineup that is batting a robust .317 vs. right-handed pitching at Fenway Park this season while averaging 6.39 runs per game.

Granted, Boston starter Jon Lester has been off his game thus far with a 6.51 ERA. However, he does still have good stuff as evidenced by his 54 strikeouts in 47 innings, so it is just a matter of time before he gets things back together. Tonight might be a good start, as he allowed only one run and five hits in 16 innings over two home appearances vs. the Blue Jays last season.

We look for Lester to regain his form and for the Boston bats to keep on thumping, so we recommend a play on the Run Line at + odds.

Pick: Red Sox -1.5

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Vernon Croy

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Pick: Boston Red Sox -180

Take the Boston Red Sox on the Moneyline, This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems but because this line is above my personal -150 maximum limit it is not a premium play for me today although I like it a lot. The Jays are just 1-5 in their last 6 games as a dog and their starter Robert Ray (1-1, 3.60 ERA) has been very inconsistent this season. The Red Sox are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team with a victorious record on the road and they are 12-1 Jon Lester's (2-4, 6.51 ERA) last 13 starts against a team with a victorious record. The Red Sox are 22-5 in Lester's last 27 home starts and they are 17-7 in their last 24 games when favored. The Jays are just 0-4 now in their last 4 trips to Boston and just 1-5 in their last 6 games against the Red Sox. The Jays are just 5-15 in their last 20 games as a road dog of +150 to +175 and the Red Sox are now 15-4 at home this season. Take the Boston Red Sox as my Complimentary MLB Play for Thursday night.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Under 9

We believe that Kris Medlen will prove to be the “real deal”. The rookie right-hander makes his debut today and he was mowing down hitters at the AAA level. He’s got great stuff, great location, and he’s got a well-rested bullpen backing him up. All the key Braves arms in the pen are ready for this one if needed. However, don’t be surprised if Medlen pitches deep into this one. It will be tough for the Rockies to adjust to him on a “first look” and Medlen has good velocity as well as solid command. He struck out 44 in 37.2 innings of work at the AAA level and he’ll be missing plenty of bats up here in the bigs as well. The Rockies annual road struggles have continued as they are just 8-14 away from home. That means another tough evening here for the bats but the reason we’re looking at the under, rather than the Braves, here is because we also expect a very strong start from Colorado’s Aaron Cook!

The sinkerballer Cook shows a lofty 5.71 ERA in the books so far this season but his numbers have been greatly impacted by a few poor outings. Note that he has produced five quality starts in his eight outings and it’s the “other three” that have jacked his numbers up. We have every reason to believe that this will be a strong outing for Cook. He’s coming off of a rough outing and he hasn’t gone back to back starts without a quality performance this entire season. Also, his career numbers against the Braves may not be that impressive but he held them to a .170 batting average last season in two starts against them! It will be very humid at Turner Field tonight. In fact, unfortunately there is a 50% chance of showers. But, the humidity can help Cook to get the good sinking action he desires as he relies so heavily on his sinkerball to get key outs. Yes, the Braves had scored well in their last two games but, prior to this, they had scored a total of just five runs in their last three games! Cook can bring them right back down to reality here! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Atlanta on Thursday night!

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Mike Rose

Carolina Hurricanes +170

The Canes clearly weren't ready for Game 1 against the Penguins, as they had a very lackluster first period of play. After being outscored 2-0 in the first, Carolina settled down and started to get back into their slower pace to the game. Goalie Cam Ward gave up three goals on 31 shots. Though it wasn't entire his fault that the Hurricanes find themselves down 1-0 in this series, he needs to play better against a vicious Pittsburgh offense in order for the Canes to advance. Superstar C Eric Staal was nowhere to be found for Carolina in Game 1, marking the second straight game in which he failed to record a point after recording 11 points in his previous eight games. The keys for the Canes tonight include better play from Ward and simply developing more chances. The power play only had two chances to work all night, and as a result, Carolina ended up 7.6 shots below their season-average of 32.6 shots per game.

Meanwhile, everyone has to be smiling in Pittsburgh right now. The Pens clearly looked the better side in Game 1, and appear to be headed to their second straight Stanley Cup final. The stars were all aligned in some form for Pittsburgh on Monday night, as both Malkin and C Sidney Crosby found their ways onto the stat sheet. G Marc-Andre Fleury is hot, as he has won five of his L/6 games. For the second straight outing, he was fantastic, allowing just two goals on 25 shots on net. The health of D Sergei Gonchar is clearly improving, as he was on the ice two nights ago for almost 22 minutes in just his second game back from injury after suffering an injury following a huge collision with Washington's Alexander Ovechkin.

The Canes didn't play their best hockey and still almost left the Burgh with a win on Monday night. At some point, you'd like to think that Carolina is going to steal one of these games on the road, and at +170, the price is too good to turn down. Look for this series to be knotted up heading back to Carolina.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

King Creole

ANA (+105) vs SEA

Just like last night's play on the PIRATES, it appears that the WRONG team is favored tonight in this West-Coaster. This is a series that LOS ANGELES has DOMINATED. The Angels are 40-17 in the last 57 games vs the Mariners... and 10-3 when playing IN Seattle. The poor Mariners are 3-12in their last 12... 0-7 vs fellow division opponents... 1-6 as a home favorite... and 0-7 when playing off a (rare) win. Meanwhile, the Halos are 6-0 vs LOSING (<.500) teams... 4-0 vs their last 4 vs lefties... and 4-0 after allowing 2 or less runs.

JOE SAUNDERS has the Mariners 'number'. He's a PERFECT 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs Seattle with a 2.85 ERA. And "In THIS Park", his ERA is a sharp 1.86. ERIC BEDARD is 2-6 in his last 8 starts vs the Angels. His ERA is 7.62 in those 8 starts. WRONG team is favored.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

==============================================================


Free Selection from Totals4U
Thursday's free selection: Cubs/Cardinals over 8 1/2

==========================================================

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
264 - 172 run      60 %       9-2 last  11 
FREE play  LA Angels

WED TY Pitt Pirates   TY Tues  Bost red Sox

==========================================================

EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION

(966) Detroit Tigers -$129

(Listing Jackson and Millwood)

The Tigers cashed in yet another free winner for us yesterday
and I'm going to ride them again today. Edwin Jackson has
been pitching well and the Rangers bats have gone cold. I look
for the Tigers to get to Millwood in this game.
Lay the juice with Detroit.

2009 Free Selections Record  75-62  (54.7%)


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Re: Thursday Service Plays

barry robinson sports

ariz -119 1* (their free play)

lakers over 210.5 7*
fla/ariz over 9 5*
seattle -115 5*
balt/yanks over 10.5 3*

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