Tuesday Service Plays

Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Joe Wiz 25-27 NBA Playoffs

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

J.R. Miller

LAKERS -6.5 +101 over Nuggets
Nuggets at Lakers UNDER 215 -109

Major League Baseball:
CUBS -122 at Cardinals (Lilly-Pineiro)
GIANTS +128 at Padres (Zito-any pitcher)
METS +136 at Dodgers (Maine-Billingsley)
ANGELS +136 at Mariners (Palmer-Hernandez)


LAKERS -6.5 +101 over Nuggets
Nuggets at Lakers UNDER 215 -109
If a sports bettor can learn anything from the NBA playoffs, it's that motivation real-l-l-y counts, and that having home-court boosts motivation. A handicapper can build all the mathematical formulas and mathematical predictions he wants, but if Team A is more motivated than Team B, you can kiss Team B's ass good-bye.In this series between the Nuggets and Lakers, the home-team has a tremendous advantage, and since the Lakers have home-court advantage in this series the Nuggets really have their work cut-out for them. If the Nuggets manage to win one of these first two games at Los Angeles, they have an excellent chance of winning this series.....But that ain't the way to bet it. The Lakers figure to win the series, 4-3.What can go wrong in today's game for the Lakers? If they allow the Nuggets to keep the game close in the last couple of minutes the Nuggets may get a burst of motivation. A couple of lucky 3-pointers, or a couple misses by the Lakers, and who knows........? We're guessing the Lakers will win this first game my double digits. Look for the Lakers to score within two or three baskets of 107 points while the Nuggets score within two or three baskets of 96 points.

METS +136 at Dodgers (Maine-Billingsley)
The only reason we're on this game is the size of the posted line. Both these teams have good current bats and both these pitchers have excellent current stats. As best we can tell, this game figures to be very nearly a toss-up, with only home-field advantage being the difference against us. We'd take the Mets at +130 or more, we'd take the Dodgers at +110 or more.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Dave Malinsky

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates

Yes, we can start Tuesday right where Monday left off. Once again the Nationals are forced into the favorite’s role, this time to a rather high level, and they simply do not bring enough to the table to merit the price tag. So a resurgent Pittsburgh team that has won three straight games, scoring a confidence-boosting 30 runs in the process, is an easy fit in this range.

How does an 11-26 team with the worst defense and worst bullpen in the Major League’s get to this line plateau? Largely because a lot of weight is being given to starter Shairon Martis, who has worked to a 5-0/4.10 so far. But while Martis is a good prospect, he has been rather fortunate so far to get 6.4 runs per game scored behind him, a pace that will not keep up, and there are real concerns going forward concerning his style with this defense behind him. The Nationals are not only at the bottom of our best defensive tables, but are on the verge of turning in one of the worst defensive seasons we have ever charted. That is a problem for a guy that pitches to contact (only 21 strikeouts in 41.2 innings), and has to rely on the arms, legs and gloves behind him to record a lot of outs. There is a further problem for Manny Acta, who has to juggle between wanting to keep the work load light for the 22-year old Martis, and going to a bullpen that is working to a mind-numbing 6.68 tune. That count is the worst in the Major Leagues, and there is not a single reliable arm right now.

The Pirates have been much better than Washington defensively, rating #7 on our best tables, and they should get Nyjer Morgan back in the lineup tonight to help in that regard. And that makes life easier for Jeffrey Kartsens, who has been a victim of both weak offensive support and a high strand rate in recording a misleading 1-2/5.06 so far. Note that his 1.41 WHIP is nearly identical to the 1.37 of Martis, which creates a better perspective. He has not walked a batter over 12 innings of his last two starts, and is an under-valued commodity at this offering.

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Stephen Nover

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Over 10

The Nationals have the worst record in baseball. And it's not because of their hitting.

Washington has scored at least five runs in 11 of its last 12 games. Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn are on pace to each drive in 130 runs. Christian Guzman is leading the NL in batting.

Washington's problem is a double whammy. The Nationals have the worst defense in baseball and the worst bullpen. That's why the team could set a National League record for most runs given up in a season.

I had an easy winner last night with the Pirates-Nationals over the total. There's no reason not to come right back with another over on these two teams. The over has cashed in eight of Washington's past nine games.

Washington's bullpen not only is horrendous, but now there are fatigue issues after last night's battering. The Nationals not only lack a legitimate closer, but a bridge to even get to the ninth. Expect more wholesale bullpen changes from Washington in the next couple of days.

Shairon Martis gets the start for Washington. He may be the Nationals best starter. But he's a rookie with command issues.

The Pirates are swinging their hottest bats. They are averaging .319 in their last eight games.

The total is the way to go rather than the underdog Pirates because Jeff Karstens is on the hill for them. I don't think he's even good enough to be a fifth-starter, which he currently is right now. Karstens has a 5.06 ERA. Pittsburgh's bullpen also carries a fatigue rating.

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Tom Freese

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota starter Scott Baker has a better than 6-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Twins are 20-9 vs. an opponent that scored 2 or less runs in their last game and they are 5-1 with Baker vs. the White Sox. Chicago is 0-5 their last games vs. righty starters and they are 1-6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. The White Sox are 0-5 when their opponent allowed 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 8-21 when the Total is 7.0 to 8.5. PLAY ON MINNESOTA w/Baker

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Rocketman

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Play : Chicago White Sox

Minnesota is scoring only 3.7 runs per game on the road this season. Minnesota bullpen has a 5.25 ERA overall this year. Chicago White Sox bullpen has a 3.64 ERA overall this year. Scott Baker is 1-4 with a 6.95 ERA overall this year including 0-1 with an 11.56 ERA on the road this season. Mark Buehrle is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA overall this year, 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA at home and 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA his last 3 starts. Baker has a whopping 6.81 ERA overall vs Chicago White Sox since 1997 while Buehrle is 22-13 with a 3.72 ERA overall vs Minnesota since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago White Sox tonight!

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Ben Burns

Chicago Blackhawks at Detroit Red Wings
Prediction: Detroit Red Wings

The Wings dominated Game 1 and they're unlikely to suffer a letdown here. Detroit is 79-37 (+17.8) the past few seasons, when coming off a win by two goals or more. During the same stretch, the Hawks are 31-41 (-14.1) when coming off a loss by two goals or more. Consider laying the wood.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

LT Profits

Chicago Cubs -120

The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals are two teams heading in opposite directions, and we look for that to continue tonight in St. Louis.

The Cubs lost 6-5 to the Houston Astros Sunday, but that snapped a five game winning streak, and we look for them to start a new streak tonight. Their starter Ted Lilly is off to a fine start, as he is 5-2 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and five Quality Starts in his last six outings. He also has six Quality Starts in his last seven appearances vs. the Cardinals the last two seasons, and he should take advantage of a Cardinal lineup batting .184 vs. lefties the last 10 games.

St. Louis starter Joel Pineiro comes in off of a couple of rocky outings, especially his last vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates as he allowed five earned on 11 hits in six innings. He did toss a Quality Start in his only outing vs. the Cubs last year, but he had a lot more offensive support then and his bullpen still managed to blow that game for him. Now, he is pitching for a team struggling to score runs and that still has a weak pen.

Playing on the road actually serves to give us a manageable price on the Cubs in this spot.

Pick: Cubs -120

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Dennis Macklin

Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: under

The Phils World Series Hero Cole Hamels has shook off an early Championship hangover and is back on track dealing to the tune of 2.08 over his last three starts and owns 0.60 LT ERA vs Cincinnati. The Reds Johnny Cueto has been a tick above the Zach Greinke/Johann Santana zone at 4-0 and 1.33 in his L6 outings. The UNDER looks golden unless the pens intervene. Play the Under.

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MTi Sports

Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are 10-0 after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and 8-0 and it is the first game of the series. The Astros are 0-5 as a dog after scoring 6+ runs and winning. Consider taking Milwaukee.

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Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -118

The Brewers have won 6 in a row and 21 of their last 27 overall and I don't see their momentum slowing against a Houston team that can't stack up at the plate. Bush has been very good for Milwaukee this season at 2-0 with an ERA of 3.52. The Astros' Hampton is 1-2 with an ERA of 7.47 over his last 3 starts. The Brewers are 8-0 in their last 8 game 1's of a series, 5-0 in Bush's last 5 starts, and 12-2 in Bush's last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Astros are 0-4 in Hampton's last 4 home starts, 1-5 in their last 6 game 1's of a series, and 1-10 in their last 11 games following an off day. I'll back the red hot Brewers again tonight.

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Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds +121

I'll back the Reds at home at an excellent price today behind the 4-1 Johnny Cueto and his 1.93 ERA. Hamels is one of the game's best young lefties, but he has struggled out of the gate and brings in a 17.17 road ERA. After three straight losses on the road, the Reds return home and they will be hungry. May has been their month as they are 15-4 in home games in May over the last 2 seasons. The Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600, 7-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150, and 4-1 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Bet the Reds.

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Mr. East

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros    
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are on a tear, and have won 6 straight games, and are now atop the NL Central. The hot play isn't just the past week, as the Brew Crew is now 20-5 in their last 25 games, and have won 10 of their last 12 on the road. The Brewers pitching has been excellent, and their bullpen ranks #2 behind only the Mets in the NL. The same can't be said for the Astro pen that has 8 saves, and 8 blown saves this season. Mike Hampton is far removed from the pitcher he was nearly a decade ago. After several seasons of 200+ innings, Hampton has worked just 188 inning his last 2+ years, and they have been the worst of his career, and sports a 5.31 ERA this season. Dave Bush has seen his ERA drop a full point a year ago, and has bettered that mark so far this year. He has done some of his best work vs the Astros where he is 5-1 with a 3.50 ERA for his career. Brewers get the call here.

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John Ryan

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals    
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Pirates as they face the Nationals slated to start at 7:05 EST. We had the Pirates last night as a rare 7* Century Club Titan play winner. Rare in that there were over 100 ML winning angles supporting the graded play. The Nats are just not a good team – not a complete team – and their abilities to play complete games is greatly reduced by poor pitching. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 34-17 making 24.3 units since 2003. Play on road dogs with a money line of +100 to +150 and with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start. Washington is just 5-22 (-15.4 Units) against the money line versus terrible power teams averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons; 16-43 (-23.0 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons; 5-15 (-13.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Washington offense is coming alive, but that is led by just a few players. They are batting 300 over their last 5 games, but allowing the opponent to hit at a horrific 314 with an OBP of 399 and allowing 8 RPG. Their bullpen is terrible sporting a 6.18 ERA on the season and 6.12 ERA in home games. In 50 IP in home games, the bullpen has allowed 38 runs, 52 hits, 8 HR, 34 BB and is 0-8 converting just 2 of 8 save opportunities. So, yes Nats starter Martis is an amazing 5-0, but one of these times the bullpen will fail him big. Plus, Martis has not been able to get LH batters out as they are hitting 319 with a 394 OBP. Take the Pirates.

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Vernon Croy

Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers    
Play: Detroit Tigers

This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and we are getting great value here tonight with the Tigers who are 11-5 at home this season. The Tigers have won 9 straight at home against the Rangers and I look for Dontrelle Willis (0-0, 7.71 ERA) to have a solid start in his second outing since coming off the disabled list. The Rangers are on their longest winning streak since May 2005 and that ends tonight with Brandon McCarthy (3-1, 5.92) on the mound for the Rangers. The Texas Rangers are just 1-6 in Brandon McCarthy's last 7 road starts and the Rangers are just 7-20 in their last 27 road games when the posted total is 9.0 to 10.5 points. The Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games after a win and McCarthy is 0-2 against Detroit with an ERA of 5.79 over 4 career starts. Take Detroit as my MLB Free Play for Tuesday night.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

GoodFella

ANA (+135) vs SEA

This play has great value here IMO, as Matt Palmer is flying under the radar. He's won his first four starts while holding opponents to a .168 batting average, first among starters in the AL. He also has the advantage of facing Seattle for the 1st time, a CLEAR advantage for the pitcher in this situation. For Seattle, they send out Felix Hernandez tonight, and he hasn't had the best success vs the Angels during his career; Hernandez is 3-4 with a 4.83 ERA in 12 career starts against the Angels. I expect the Angels to be the Angels and work the pitch count up on Felix & get into that Mariner bullpen that is REALLY struggling right now. Live dog here fellas, & I will bite.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Tony George

Kansas City / Cleveland Under 8

Two solid pitchers tonight in Kansas City in perfect weather, in what should be a battle of hurlers tonight, whom both will be on the bench while their team is on offense begging for some run support. Brian Bannister gets the start for Kansas City, up from Omaha and he threw a 4 hot game in his debut back in the Majors in Cleveland back in April in a Royals 2-0 win in that game. In his last 5 outings he has not had over 3 earned runs allowed in any of those starts. Cliff Lee is no slouch for the Tribe either, and neither teams offense is the stuff legends are made of.  Kansas Citys bullpen has been one of the best in baseball all season and they have won without a ton of offense because of it, and their last 3 games the bullpen for the Royals has an overall ERA of 2.01.  This is a 2-1 or 3-2 type ballgame with both teams battling for the win, in Kaufman stadium tonight, which I will be in attendance for this one.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

CHI (+170) vs DET

This is a value play as I look for Patrick Kane and the Blackhawks to do what they've done already during the first two rounds of the playoffs; come back strong and play with a concerted effort after a loss! It's interesting to note that Chicago is in fact a fantastic 2-0 (+2.4 units) when trailing in a playoff series and I look for this strong trend to continue this evening; play on CHICAGO!

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Wunderdog

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis +110

The Cardinals are getting a bump in the line after getting swept at home in three straight by the Brewers. It must be noted that the Cards ran into a buzz saw, as the Brewers are 20-5 in their last 25 games. Joel Pineiro has pitched to a respectable 4.17 ERA, but a much more respectable 2.45 at home where the Cards have yet to lose with him on the hill. They have lost just once since the All-Star break of last season behind Pineiro at home! Ted Lilly certainly has a bigger name, but the separation between the two over their careers is just 0.17 in the ERA column, so not much difference and we are getting the Cards at home here. The Cubs have proven to be a force at home and mediocre on the road over the last 1+ year. St. Louis has the better record in comparing Cubs on the road vs. St. Louis at home. They also have an even comparison on the mound. The bigger edge belongs to the Cards pen that trumps the 26th rated Cub pen by well over one run a game. We have a favorable matchup all the way around - and we get the dog. I'm going with St. Louis in this one.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Yankee Capper

Cincinnati Reds +120

Chicago White Sox -120

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