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Friday Service Plays

Re: Friday Service Plays

Nick Parsons

Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5

On Saturday, Greinke (6-1, 0.51 ERA) had his nine-game winning streak snapped as he lost for the first time since Sept. 7. The majors' ERA leader gave up one run and four hits over eight innings of 1-0 loss against the Los Angeles Angels and it's that will compound this evening as I expect this total go over the posted number. Adam Eaton (2-3, 7.18) will get the call for Baltimore, and he'll be trying to win consecutive starts for the first time since May 28-June 3 with Philadelphia. The right-hander gave up four runs and four hits - including two home runs - over five innings of a 12-5 win over the New York Yankees on Saturday; play on the OVER!

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Free Selection from Totals4U

Friday's free selection: Baltimore/Kansas City under 8 1/2

===============================================

Free Selection from Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: Take MILWAUKEE (Gallardo)
Pick'em over St Louis

===============================================

EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION

(972) Detroit Tigers -$140

(Listing Jackson and Anderson)

Oakland's starting pitcher Brett Anderson is yet to earn a Major
League win and has given up five runs in three of his five starts
this year. The Tigers should be able to put some runs on the
board against him and Oakland will have a hard time winning
a slugfest as their offense is one of the worst in the Majors.
Lay the juice with the Tigers.

2009 Free Selections Record  70-61  (53.4%)

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Re: Friday Service Plays

JIMMY BOYD

1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates -118

Pittsburgh ended a long losing streak with a nice series win over the Cards. Now it takes some momentum into this series with lowly Colorado. I expect a win out of the Bucs in Game 1 behind Maholm, who is 2-0 at home with an ERA of 2.66 this season. You also like the fact that Maholm is 9-1 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons and 13-2 against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. Colorado has struggled on the road (6-10), against southpaw starters (4-7), and in night games (6-12). Also, it is just 6-22 against the money line in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are 10-1 in Maholm's last 11 starts as a home favorite while the Rockies are 0-5 in De La Rosa's last 5 starts as an underdog. Bet the Bucs.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Alatex

Los Angeles at Florida Under 9

Florida starter Chris Volstad has failed to allow more than three earned runs in a start and officially, has posted five quality starts in seven tries. His 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 32 hits in 42.1 innings suggest the future is extremely bright for the big righty. He’ll face a Dodgers lineup that thus far has shown some dramatic home/road splits with .253 BA and .725 OPS numbers on the road and .315 BA/.869 OPS at home. Overall, the Dodgers are averaging exactly two runs less per contest on the highway. LA’s Eric Stults is a guy we are going to keep a close eye on. With 32.2 innings pitched this season, he is six away from matching his MLB season-high. Up until this point, the lefty has been very effective, changing speeds and keeping batters off-balance. As mentioned, we are leery of his long term shelf life being a guy that tends to pitch to contact, but in this spot, against a Florida team that shows well below average numbers against lefties (.230 BA/.288 OBP/.680 OPS) we feel his success should continue. The loss of Manny Ramirez is not something we are going to overreact to, but he is still one less powerful stick Volstad must face. Let’s play this one under the total.

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Jrtips

BOSTON vs. SEATTLE

The left-hander Lester will start for the Boston Red Sox and try to break out of his funk as opponents are hitting .310 against him. Lester (2-3, 6.31 ERA) allowed a career-high eight runs in a season-low 4 1/3 innings of the 14-5 loss. Lester is 1-0 with a 4.67 ERA in three career starts against the Mariners and Boston (21-14) needs a good start from Lester to give their bullpen a rest after Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez and Jonathan Papelbon all pitched at least an inning in their 5-4, 12-inning loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday. The Red Sox's starters are last in the AL with a 5.90 ERA. The Mariners (16-19) have scored two or fewer runs in six of their last nine games, including a 3-2 loss to Texas on Thursday and the Mariners finished their road trip at 1-7 after dropping the final two games being outscored 64-28 in their last 10 games. Boston's reigning AL MVP Dustin Pedroia had four hits in his return from a groin injury and Julio Lugo had five hits while slugger David Ortiz went 0 for 7 and stranded 12 runners as his average fell to .208. Boston's offense has slowed, scoring four runs in four straight games but should break out today facing struggling rookie right-hander Chris Jakubauskas (1-4, 7.67) who gave up nine runs and three homers in 4 1/3 innings of Seattle's 11-0 loss at Minnesota last Friday. Boston won its last five games against the Mariners last year, including a three-game sweep in Seattle.

TAKE BOSTON-151

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Big Al McMordie

LAA Angels vs. Texas Rangers     
Play: LAA Angels   

At 8:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Texas Rangers. Rangers righthanded pitcher Kevin Millwood has an amazing ERA of only 2.92, but his record is only 3-3 which means that the 13-year veteran is probably not getting much run support. In fact, in Millwood's three losses, Texas has only scored a total of four runs and one of those games was a 2-0 shutout at the hands of the Royals at home in Arlington. Angels lefthander Joe Saunders is in All-Star form right now, having won his last three starts and pitching a complete game shutout in his last outing on May 9 against the Royals. That game was significant as Saunders finally broke the scoreless pitching streak of KC's Zack Greinke. The really good news for the Angels is that despite the loss of outfielder Vladimir Guerrero, out since early May with a pectoral muscle injury, Los Angeles has won nine of their last 11 games heading into tonight. Even without Guerrero, this is a pretty potent offense, and the pitching performances of guys like Matt Palmer and Shane Loux have served them well while they're waiting for the return of Ervin Santana, John Lackey, and Kelvim Escobar. No matter who returns to the rotation for this team, Saunders isn't going anywhere and this talented southpaw should be a fixture on this starting staff for some time to come. Take the Angels.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

Boston is 50-24 their lat 74 games vs. losing teams and they are 37-1 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30. The Red Sox are 10-3 on Friday and they are 28-10 with Jon Lester on the mound vs. losing teams. Seattle is 1-9 their last 10 games overall and they are 0-6 their last 6 games as underdogs. The Mariners are 1-7 off a loss and they are 0-5 their last 5 meetings with the Red Sox. PLAY ON BOSTON w/Lester

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Dwayne Bryant

MIL (-108) vs STL

Milwaukee (21-14) has won nine of its last 11, compiling a .283 batting average with 18 home runs and outscoring opponents 75-45. The Brewers have also won seven of nine on the road. Milwaukee went 10-5 against St. Louis last season, winning six of nine at Busch Stadium.

Yovani Gallardo (4-1, 3.09 ERA) has won three consecutive decisions while posting a 1.80 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 35 innings over five starts as Milwaukee has gone 4-1.

Kyle Lohse (3-2, 4.25) is 0-2 with an 11.32 ERA and has served up three homers in his last two games. That came after going 3-0 with a 1.97 ERA and one homer allowed in five April starts. Lohse is 3-3 with a 5.22 ERA in 11 games - 10 starts - against the Brewers. He had no record and a 4.26 ERA in three starts against Milwaukee last year, all St. Louis losses.

The Brewers are playing much better baseball right now and Gallardo is in much better current form than Lohse. The Cardinals are also missing two key components in their lineup -- Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel.

I'll take Milwaukee and Gallardo over St. Louis and Lohse for a half-unit.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Frank Sawyer

Pitching Surprise Play

At 7:05 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the money line on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals listing both pitchers Joe Blanton and John Lannan. The Phillies enter this series 16-16 overall after dropping a disappointing 5-3 ten inning affair with the Dodgers Thursday night. They meet a Nationals club that is 11-21 on the season. The Phillies will send out the right-handed veteran, Joe Blanton, to the mound. Blanton has posted some ugly numbers so far this season. He has a 1-3 record with a 6.82 ERA and a WHIP of 1.60. Blanton had two outings in April where he could not get out of the 5th inning while allowing seven and six earned runs respectively. However, a look beyond these frontline numbers into some deeper sabermetric statistics suggests that Blanton should be achieving better results. A stat we are very interested is a pitcher's BABIP -- batting average on balls put in play (which excludes home runs as well as obvious things such as strike outs). The utility of the BABIP stat is that it measures to a certain extent the pitcher's team defensive prowess as well measure the luck a pitcher encounters regarding where the balls he allows into play actually go. The average BABIP rating for MLB pitchers is .290. Because BABIP is an attempt to, in part, measure the luck the pitcher has enjoyed previously, over the long run pitchers with low BABIPs are expected to have this number rise while pitchers with high BABIPs are expected to have this number lower. Blanton currently has a BABIP of .343 this season which is high and "unlucky." What this tells us is that Blanton has been unfortunate in that many of the balls he has allowed in play are not being hit towards Philly fielders. He should not to expect that trend to continue since that is a bit a function of luck regarding where the defense happens to be positioned -- which, of course, will then decrease the number of hits he allows as well as then the number of runs he allows. Additionally, the Phillies lead the majors with just eight errors on the season. As time goes by, Blanton will benefit from these balls being hit towards the capable Philly fielders that back him up. Blanton's last two outings suggest he his already turning around his early season difficulties. On May 4th, he pitched six innings and allowed just one run on just four hits in a win at St. Louis. Then on May 9th, while giving up six runs in eight innings against the Braves, two of those runs came on an 8th inning homer he allowed. We are encouraged by the fact that he had five strikeouts with just one walk in that game. Furthermore, he averaged just 13.8 pitches per inning in that outing which suggests that, for much of the game, he was dominant. He compiled 110 pitches which were the most he has accumulated in one game all season -- which explains why stayed in the game through the eighth inning. Blanton is a solid strikeout pitcher. He averages 7.2 strikeouts per 9 innings this season and has a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.8:1 Strikeout pitchers with good control are the ones most likely to pitch themselves out of slumps. Not only can strikeout pitchers get themselves out of jams with their "stuff," but the credible threat of striking out a hitter compels batters to swing earlier in the count. When combined with a low-walk rate, strikeout pitchers gain control of the "chess match" between hitters and pitchers. This is a recipe for long term success. The veteran Blanton certainly has the repertoire to pitch well. In the second half of last season (when he was traded to the Phillies), Blanton was 4-0 with a 4.24 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and a very nice low opponent's batting average of just .251. He struck out 52 batters in 76 1/3 innings during that stretch. Blanton has also pitched much better away from Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park this season. On the road in two '09 starts, Blanton has a 1-1 record with a 3.89 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .250 in twelve innings. Given these peripheral numbers, we expect a strong performance "surprise" out of the Phillies' starter tonight.

The Nationals send out their ace, John Lannan, with his 2-3 record along with a 3.89 ERA. Lannan does have a high opponent's batting average of .282 along with a worrisome WHIP of 1.50 this season. Lannan is not a strikeout pitcher as he averages just 4.53 Ks per nine innings. Additionally, his K-to-Walk ration is 1.3:1 which is not very impressive since for every four strikeouts, Lannan averages three walks. In 2008, Lannan was 9-15 with a 3.91 ERA overall -- but his numbers at home were noticeably worse as he was just 4-9 with a 4.89 ERA. And, Lannan struggled against the Phillies last year as he was 0-3 with a 5.94 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of a whopping .323 in 16 2/3 innings. Both of these offenses are good; the Nationals average 5.15 runs per game while the Phillies score 5.52 runs per game -- ranking 9th and 5th in the majors respectively. However, the Phillies averaged 4.94 runs per game last season to just the 3.98 average of the Nationals. Over the long run, the Philly crew of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino should out-hit Ryan Zimmerman and Co. this season. If this game goes to the bullpens, the Phillies should have the advantage as the Nationals have an extremely shaky bullpen; collectively, their pen has an ERA of 6.31 with a WHIP of 1.75 and over the last 22 1/2 innings their bullpen ERA jumps to 8.06.

Overall, Philadelphia is an excellent position to win the opening game of this series. Washington is just 16-37 over their last 53 games. Philadelphia is 6-2 in their last eight meetings with the Nationals and 7-3 in their last ten games in Washington. Philly is 8-3 in their last eleven games on the road. And, the Phillies are 10-3 in their last thirteen games in games where Blanton starts. Furthermore, Washington is 10-45 versus the money line (-30.8 units) after four or more games on the road over the last two seasons. Finally, there is a strong 85% system against the money line (33-6 since 1997, +25.2 units) that looks to play on National League road favorites of at least -110 if they are sending a starting pitcher who has a WHIP between 1.55-1.65 while sporting a lineup that averages at least 3.5 extra-base hits a game. The defending National League Champions should knock around the Nationals' Lannan while their starting pitcher, Joe Blanton, should be primed to "surprise" with an excellent pitching performance. MLB Hollywood Insider Starting Pitcher Surprise on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals listing both pitchers Joe Blanton and John Lannan.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Houston at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs -150

The Chicago Cubs are beginning to get it going. Last season, they were the only National League team to win over 50 games at home, and they did it by a lot at 55. This season, they are 11-6 at home, and now 7-1 in their last eight outings at Wrigley. They have plated 49 runs in the eight games, or just over eight runs per game. Houston is a weak hitting team that found some success in the thin air and poor pitching in Colorado and in San Diego, who has dropped 19 of 23. They are a poor 5-16 as a +100 to +150 favorite, showing that they have trouble in these situations. The Cubs have been absolute murderers on teams with a losing record as they are now an awe inspiring 41-12 in their last 53 against them. That converts to 77.4% winners, enough for me to back Chicago in this one.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Yankee Capper

LA Dodgers +125
Philadelphia Phillies -105
Detroit Tigers -150
Tampa Bay Rays -155

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals +105

The Cards return home where they have been unbeatable this season, at 12-5, and I expect them to get back to their winning ways.  The Brewers are rolling and Gallardo has been good, but his track record against the Cards is not in his favor tonight as the Brewers are 0-2 in his 2 starts against St. Louis with Gallardo posting an ERA of 9.28 and a WHIP of 1.500.  The Cardinals are 21-8 in their last 29 home games and a perfect 7-0 in Lohse's last 7 starts as a home underdog.  I'll back the Cards showing good value in the home dog role tonight.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Ben Burns

Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

Jackson has a 2.60 ERA and 1.044 WHIP. He tossed seven shutout innings last time out. Anderson got rocked last time out (nine hits and five runs in five innings) and has a 5.79 ERA on the season. Consider laying the wood.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

ROCKETMAN

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees
Play: NY Yankees

NY Yankees are 209-144 at home since 1997 when the total is 10 to 10 1/2. Minnesota is scoring only 3.6 runs per game on the road this year. Minnesota bullpen has a 5.26 ERA overall this year. Liriano is 2-4 with a 5.75 ERA overall this year and only 1-2 with a whopping 7.87 ERA on the road this season. NY Yankees are 6-1 at home vs Minnesota the past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Yankees tonight!

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Mike Rose

Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5

John Danks wasnt able to squash his personal two-game losing streak his last time out, but he certainly pitched well enough to do so. The southpaw tossed six-innings of one-run ball against the Texas Rangers and allowed just four hits while striking out a career high 10 batters. Hes been rock solid as a visitor this season posting a 2-1 mark with a 3.44 ERA and 1.15 WHIP allowing just 16 hits and seven earned runs through 18+ total innings of work. Hes yet to defeat the BJs in two career starts, and got roughed up in this venue a year ago in early May when he surrendered seven hits and two earned runs in just 4 2/3rd innings of work.

Brett Cecils more than held his own since being called up to the big leagues a couple weeks ago. In two starts, the lefty has allowed just 11 hits and one earned run while striking out 12 and walking two through 14 total innings of work. His last outing against the weak hitting Oakland As was a thing of beauty. He induced 12 ground-ball outs and made it a point to get ahead of the hitters by throwing first-pitch strikes.

The last thing the BJs want to see is another effective left-hander on the mound after Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia silenced them in each of their last two games. Danks has more than held his own against Toronto in his career (2.79 ERA & 1.55 WHIP in 2 starts), and this Cecil kid could be a major problem for Chicagos sticks. With both offenses currently struggling, look for Game 1 of this series to be decided by each clubs pitching staffs.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Dennis Macklin

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Over

Both starters in tonight's Red Sox/Mariner matchup have been lit like Christmas Trees. John Lester is 2-3 with a 6.32 ERA that bloats to 8.81 in his L3. He's given up 65 baerunners in 41+ innings so he's generally pitching out of trouble. The M's Chris Jakubauskas throws batting practice. The righty is 0-4 with and 8.18 ERA as a starter and his 9/11 BB/K ratio indicates that he doesn't miss many bats. This one could go four hours at Safeco, play the Over.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Dave Price

1 Unit on New York Mets +160

The Mets have rattled off 9 wins in their last 11 games and they are showing excellent value tonight against Giants' ace Tim Lincecum as he is 0-2 against the money line against them with an ERA of 4.85 and a WHIP of 1.308. Plus, the Mets have had the Giants' number, having won 6 straight in the series and 10 of the last 13. You also have to like Hernandez's chances against the Giants' bats tonight. He is a perfect 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA over his last 3 starts and he has been sensational in his career against weak power hitting lineups at 9-2 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Mets.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

LARRY NESS

Chicago White Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays dropped the final two games of a three-game series against the Yankees, after winning behind Roy Halladay on Tuesday. As for the White Sox, they lost two of three at Cleveland and will enter this four-game set with the Blue Jays having lost EIGHT of their last 11 games. The White Sox are just 15-18, while the Blue Jays still lead the AL East with a 23-14 record. Toronto continues to get solid efforts from its starting pitchers (nine different players have started a game for the Jays in '09) and it's a big reason why the team's record is so good. Toronto's starters own 16 wins, have a 4.34 ERA and have pitched a league-high 224 innings. Rookie Brett Cecil (1-0, 0.64 ERA) gets the start tonight. He was chosen 38th in the 2007 draft and this will be his third major league start. He gave up just one earned run in six innings of Toronto's 10-6 victory over Cleveland in his major league debut on May 5 and in his second start this past Sunday, the left-hander allowed five hits over eight innings in a 5-0 win over Oakland. He'll face a White Sox team which has failed to hit a HR in FIVE of its last six games (led the majors with 235 HRs last season) and has just 33 on the year (Texas leads MLB with 58). Let's also point out that Chicago's .251 team BA is better than only Oakland's .240 in the AL. John Danks (2-2 with a 3.41 ERA in six starts) gets the start for Chicago. He is coming off an outstanding outing, allowing one run while striking out a season-high 10 in six innings of a 3-2 victory over Texas on Saturday (he got a no decision). However, in his previous two starts, Danks had allowed 18 hits and 10 ERs over just 9.1 innings (9.64 ERA) in back-to-back losses. Toronto has limited the White Sox to 11 runs and a .146 batting average in winning six consecutive home games over Chicago these last two seasons. Take the Jays.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Rob Homyak

5 Units on LA Angels

Play ON LA ANGELS using the money line in Road games in games played on a grass field

The record is 51 Wins and 29 Losses for the last two seasons (+25.20 units)

LA ANGELS are 37-20 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.

SAUNDERS: 10-1 TSR as an underdog


Head to Head

Angels are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Texas.

Angels are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.

Rangers are 1-4 in Millwoods last 5 starts vs. Angels.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Steve Merril

Angels/Rangers  Under

Texas looks to make it five in a row when they host the Angels on Friday night.  Both teams are sending pretty good pitchers to the hill.  Texas is going with Kevin Millwood who is just 3-3, but has a solid 2.92 ERA and 1.051 WHIP.  Four of his seven outings have resulted in Unders, including two of his three outings at home.  Millwood is 3-4 against the Angels with an ERA of 3.82 and seven Unders in 11 starts.  Millwood has had success against Chone Figgins (3-29), Maicer Izturis (2-13), Juan Rivera (2-12), Reggie Willits (1-11), and Erick Aybar (1-8).

The Angels send their opening day starter Joe Saunders to the hill.  Saunders is 5-1 with a 2.66 ERA and four Unders in seven starts.  In his last three outings, he is 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA and two Unders as well.  Saunders is 3-3 with a 4.65 ERA and a WHIP of 1.279 against Texas.  Both outings last year against the Rangers resulted in Unders as well.  Saunders has held down Nelson Cruz (3-15), Marlon Byrd (1-11), Hank Blalock (1-7), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (1-6), German Duran (1-6), Chris Davis (1-5), and Andruw Jones (0-3).  10 of the last 18 games in this series have also stayed Under the total in Arlington.

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