MLB Trends Monday 5/11

MLB Trends Monday 5/11

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

- Divisional bragging rights will be on the line on Monday when the Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Indians meet at Progressive Field.

Gavin Floyd will be the starting pitcher for the White Sox on this day. Righthander Floyd is 2-2 this season with a 6.29 ERA.

Floyd's opponent in this one will be Carl Pavano. The Indians righthander has a 6.61 ERA to go along with a 2-3 record this season.

Oddsmakers currently have the Indians listed as 133-moneyline favorites versus the White Sox, while the game's total has not yet been posted.

The White Sox lost to Texas 7-1 as a -110 favorite on Sunday. The eight runs scored fell UNDER the posted over/under total (10).

Jermaine Dye scored the White Sox's lone run on a wild pitch, while Bartolo Colon gave up five runs on five hits in 4 2-3 innings.

The Indians lost to Detroit 5-3 as a -125 favorite on Sunday. The eight runs scored fell UNDER the posted over/under total (10).

Grady Sizemore drove a run for Cleveland and Anthony Reyes surrendered five runs on seven hits in five innings.

Current streak:
Cleveland has lost 4 straight games.

Team records:
Chicago: 14-16 SU
Cleveland: 11-21 SU

Chicago most recently:
When playing on Monday are 1-9
Before playing Cleveland are 4-6
After playing Texas are 5-5
After a loss are 6-4

Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Monday are 3-7
Before playing Chi White Sox are 5-5
After playing Detroit are 5-5
After a loss are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi White Sox's last 7 games
Chi White Sox are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chi White Sox's last 12 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland's last 11 games at home
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cleveland's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cleveland's last 12 games when playing Chi White Sox


Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

- Divisional bragging rights will be on the line on Monday when the Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets meet at Citi Field.

The Braves will pin their hopes on the pitching of ace righthander Derek Lowe in this game. Lowe has a 4-1 record and a 3.98 ERA this season.

It'll be ace Johan Santana toeing the rubber for the Mets in this contest. Lefthander Santana is 4-1 with a 0.91 ERA so far this season.

Oddsmakers currently have the Mets listed as 210-moneyline favorites versus the Braves, while the game's total has not yet been posted.

The Braves defeated Philadelphia 4-2 as a +135 underdog on Sunday. The six runs scored fell UNDER the posted over/under total (10.5).

Casey Kotchman was 3-5 with three RBI for Atlanta, while Kenshin Kawakami went six innings and allowed two runs on five hits.

The Mets defeated Pittsburgh 8-4 as a -160 favorite on Sunday. The 12 runs scored went OVER the posted over/under total (9.5).

Luis Castillo and Omir Santos were both 2-4 with a pair of RBI for New York, while Livan Hernandez allowed two runs on seven hits in six innings.

Current streak:
Atlanta has won 2 straight games.
New York has won 7 straight games.

Team records:
Atlanta: 15-16 SU
New York: 17-13 SU

Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Monday are 7-3
Before playing NY Mets are 3-7
After playing Philadelphia are 6-4
After a win are 4-6

New York most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
Before playing Atlanta are 7-3
After playing Pittsburgh are 8-2
After a win are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
NY Mets are 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
NY Mets are 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
NY Mets are 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets's last 6 games when playing Atlanta


Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks


- The Cincinnati Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at Chase Field.

Bronson Arroyo will be the starting pitcher for the Reds on this day. Righthander Arroyo is 4-2 this season with a 7.15 ERA.

Starting this game for the Diamondbacks will be Jon Garland. The righthander has a 4.03 ERA to go along with a 3-1 record this season.

Oddsmakers currently have the Diamondbacks listed as 125-moneyline favorites versus the Reds, while the game's total has not yet been posted.

The Reds lost to St. Louis 8-7 as a -110 favorite on Sunday. The 15 runs scored went OVER the posted over/under total (8).

Jay Bruce hit a two-run home run for Cincinnati, while Joey Votto and Adam Rosales added solo shots.

The Diamondbacks defeated Washington 10-8 as a -175 favorite on Sunday. The 18 runs scored went OVER the posted over/under total (9).

Eric Byrnes homered and drove in three runs for Arizona, while Chris Snyder also had three RBI

Team records:
Cincinnati: 17-14 SU
Arizona: 13-19 SU

Cincinnati most recently:
When playing on Monday are 4-6
Before playing Arizona are 5-5
After playing St. Louis are 4-6
After a loss are 8-2

Arizona most recently:
When playing on Monday are 3-7
Before playing Cincinnati are 4-6
After playing Washington are 4-6
After a win are 2-8

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Cincinnati's last 15 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Arizona's last 15 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games at home


Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants

- The Washington Nationals and the San Francisco Giants will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at AT&T Park.

The Nationals will give the ball to starter Daniel Cabrera in this one. Righthander Cabrera is 0-3 this season with a 4.86 ERA.

It'll be Randy Johnson toeing the rubber for the Giants in this contest. Lefthander Johnson is 2-3 with a 5.68 ERA so far this season.

Oddsmakers currently have the Giants listed as 145-moneyline favorites versus the Nationals, while the game's total has not yet been posted.

The Nationals lost to Arizona 10-8 as a +165 underdog on Sunday. The 18 runs scored went OVER the posted over/under total (9).

Adam Dunn homered twice and had three RBI for Washington, while Scott Olsen surrendered five runs on 10 hits in 4 1-3 innings.

The Giants defeated the Dodgers 7-5 in 13 innings as a -130 favorite on Sunday. The 12 runs scored went OVER the posted over/under total (7.5).

Randy Winn was 4-6 and drove in a pair of runs in the 13th inning and Emmanuel Burriss was 4-7 with an RBI in the win.

Team records:
Washington: 10-19 SU
San Francisco: 16-14 SU

Washington most recently:
When playing on Monday are 2-8
Before playing San Francisco are 3-7
After playing Arizona are 4-6
After a loss are 5-5

San Francisco most recently:
When playing on Monday are 3-7
Before playing Washington are 6-4
After playing LA Dodgers are 5-5
After a win are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
San Francisco is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
San Francisco is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games

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CHI WHITE SOX vs. CLEVELAND
Chi White Sox are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox

ATLANTA vs. NY METS
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
NY Mets are 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets's last 6 games when playing Atlanta

CINCINNATI vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games

WASHINGTON vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 16 of San Francisco's last 24 games when playing at home against Washington

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ATLANTA (15 - 16) at NY METS (17 - 13)
DEREK LOWE (R) vs. JOHAN SANTANA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 79-91 (-22.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 87-106 (-27.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 86-104 (-26.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 58-71 (-20.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SANTANA is 97-40 (+35.5 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
SANTANA is 81-28 (+38.4 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
SANTANA is 76-22 (+36.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
NY METS are 39-41 (-27.2 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SANTANA is 6-10 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 2-0 (+2.2 Units) against ATLANTA this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.0 Units)

DEREK LOWE vs. NY METS since 1997
LOWE is 1-1 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 8.79 and a WHIP of 2.094.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-0. (+3.0 units)

JOHAN SANTANA vs. ATLANTA since 1997
SANTANA is 0-3 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.75 and a WHIP of 1.469.
His team's record is 1-4 (-5.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-0. (+5.0 units)


CINCINNATI (17 - 14) at ARIZONA (13 - 19)
BRONSON ARROYO (R) vs. JON GARLAND (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 34-47 (-18.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
GARLAND is 25-13 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GARLAND is 23-11 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CINCINNATI is 459-528 (+50.3 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 398-475 (+34.1 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 302-343 (+34.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 336-388 (+35.5 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
ARIZONA is 96-99 (-21.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 15-23 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 96-96 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 64-64 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 64-71 (-21.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 2-10 (-9.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ARIZONA is 28-42 (-17.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GARLAND is 36-42 (-20.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

BRONSON ARROYO vs. ARIZONA since 1997
ARROYO is 0-1 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 4.13 and a WHIP of 1.458.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.5 units)

JON GARLAND vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
GARLAND is 1-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 1.13 and a WHIP of 0.625.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)


WASHINGTON (10 - 19) at SAN FRANCISCO (16 - 14)
DANIEL CABRERA (R) vs. RANDY JOHNSON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 39-81 (-31.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 28-65 (-28.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 69-121 (-31.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 29-81 (-39.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 5-23 (-18.7 Units) against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 3 seasons.
CABRERA is 10-24 (-14.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 126-75 (+51.5 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 667-563 (+81.6 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

DANIEL CABRERA vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
No recent starts.

RANDY JOHNSON vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
JOHNSON is 3-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.67 and a WHIP of 1.114.
His team's record is 5-4 (-4.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-2. (+4.9 units)


CHI WHITE SOX (14 - 16) at CLEVELAND (11 - 21)
GAVIN FLOYD (R) vs. CARL PAVANO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PAVANO is 48-32 (+17.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
CHI WHITE SOX are 56-34 (+19.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 88-68 (+22.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 97-73 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
FLOYD is 12-4 (+8.6 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 42-46 (-14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 11-21 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-20 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-19 (-14.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

GAVIN FLOYD vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
FLOYD is 2-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 4.42 and a WHIP of 1.309.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

CARL PAVANO vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
PAVANO is 1-1 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 1.054.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

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Re: MLB Trends Monday 5/11

National League

ATLANTA at NY METS

LOWE: ATL 110-63 AWAY with double revenge
SANTANA: 6-10 TSR at home against division opponents

CINCINNATI at ARIZONA
ARROYO: CIN 7-0 after allowing 8+ runs
GARLAND: ARI 2-10 after a team win

WASHINGTON at SAN FRANCISCO
CABRERA: WAS 8-31 after 5+ consecutive road games
JOHNSON: SF 9-0 OVER after BB games with no home runs


American League

CHI WHITE SOX at CLEVELAND

FLOYD: 12-4 TSR after a team loss
PAVANO: CLE 7-19 against right-handed starters

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Tips and Trends

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks


Reds: Bronson Arroyo looks to put a forgettable outing behind. After allowing four hits in eight innings of a 4-0 win over Pittsburgh on May 1, Arroyo was tagged for nine runs, seven hits and three walks in just over an inning in Wednesday's 15-3 loss to Milwaukee. The right-hander hopes to bounce back on the road, where he's posted a 1.69 ERA in winning all three starts. He's 1-2 with a 16.34 ERA in three starts in Cincinnati. In his only start against the Diamondbacks last season, Arroyo gave up four runs in five innings of a 6-5 victory, but was not a factor in the decision.
   
The Reds are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
The Under is 40-11-4 in the last 55 meetings.

Key Injuries - 1B Joey Votto (flu) is PROBABLE.
SS Alex Gonzalez (oblique) is QUESTIONABLE.
3B Edwin Encarnacion (wrist) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 6 (Side Play of the Day)


D'backs (-125, O/U 9.5): The D'backs are coming off a win, but have lost six of their last eight. They're just 2-10 after a win this season. Arizona has the majors' worst batting average (.234) and has scored the second-fewest runs (120). Since yielding seven runs in a loss to St. Louis on April 15, the Jon Garland is 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA in his last four outings. In his only career start against the Reds on June 18, 2006, Garland yielded one run and four hits in eight innings of an 8-1 victory for the Chicago White Sox. The Diamondbacks lost four of six to Cincinnati last season and eight of the last 10 meetings.

The Diamondbacks are 2-10 in their last 12 games following a win.
The Diamondbacks are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.

Key Injuries - SS Stephen Drew (hamstring) is on the 15-day DL.

PROJECTED SCORE: 4

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Re: MLB Trends Monday 5/11

Hot Pitchers
-- Santana is 4-1, 1.36 in six starts this season. Braves won Lowe's last three starts (3-0, 4.82) scoring 25 runs.
-- Arizona won last four Garland starts (3-0, 2.63).
-- Johnson is 2-1, 1.89 in three home starts, not allowing a run in his last 14 innings at home.
-- Pavano is 2-0, 2.70 in his last two starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Arroyo is 1-2, 11.05 in his last three starts.
-- Cabrera is 0-2, 8.56 in his last three starts.
-- Floyd is 0-1, 8.81 in his last three starts.

Hot Teams
-- Braves won four of last five games. Mets won their last seven games, outscoring foes 43-20.
-- Reds won seven of their last ten road games.
-- Washington won five of its last seven games. Giants won nine of last twelve home games.

Cold Teams
-- Arizona lost three of its last four games.
-- White Sox lost six of their last eight games. Indians lost last four in a row, outscored 23-6- they scored three runs in their last three games.

Totals
-- Three of last four Atlanta games stayed under the total. Mets' last four games all went over.
-- Under is 8-1-2 in last eleven Arizona games.
-- Six of last eight Washington games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven White Sox games stayed under the total.

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