Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Craig Davis

Today’s free play is on the NY Yankees. It’s amazing what one player can do for a team’s confidence. Alex Rodriguez plays his first game of the year, hits a three-run homer on the first pitch he sees, and CC Sabathia pitches his best game in a Yankees uniform. Yankees 4 Baltimore 0. Although I’m not expecting another shutout with Philip Hughes on the hill, I do expect the NY Yankees to score more than four runs today facing Adam Eaton. Have you watched this guy pitch? Seriously, he’ll be lucky to make it past the fourth inning the way he’s been throwing lately. New York hitters are waaaaay overdue for an offensive explosion, and today is just what the doctor ordered. I realize the Yankees haven’t been playing well recently, but neither has Baltimore despite their hot start to the season. The Yanks have won 8 of the last 10 H2H with Baltimore and I see nothing that tells me tonight will be any different. Play the Yankees against the run line vs. Baltimore as your free play winner.

3♦ NY YANKEES -1 1/2

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

JIM FEIST

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS / CINCINNATI REDS
Take ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

First place St. Louis comes to town with the No. 1 pitching staff in ERA in the NL, plus a balanced offense that is second in runs and slugging. They have a winning road record and face a Cincy team that has a losing home mark and an offense ranked 14th in the NL in runs scored. Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse (3-1) likes the NL, with a 3.22 ERA. Aaron Harang does not like facing St. Louis, at 6-9 with a 4.75 ERA against them. Play the Cardinals.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

LT Profits

Minnesota Twins -120

We have a lot of respect for Felix Hernandez, but his Seattle Mariners are playing terrible ball right now, so we will back the Minnesota Twins and Francisco Liriano at home here at a reasonable price.

The Mariners have lost five straight games, and they have scored a pathetic total of four runs in their last four games. Also, Hernandez was not sharp in his last start as he was roughed up for six earned runs and 10 hits in six innings at home vs. the Texas Rangers, and he is now facing a Twins lineup that is batting a nice .287 vs. right-handed pitching at home so far this season.

Liriano was off to a very slow start, but he is now rounding to form nicely as he has recorded back-to-back Quality Starts while allowing exactly two runs on each occasion. Remember that Liriano is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is on top of his game, and his last two starts indicate that he is starting to round into his usual dominant form.

Liriano lost to the Mariners back on April 6 when he allowed four runs, but he only allowed four hits in seven innings and he was not nearly as sharp then as he is now, so look for him to get some revenge here.

Pick: Twins -120

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Dave Price

1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +130

The Cubs are 11-6 in Milwaukee the last 3 seasons and I'll bet on them to bounce back from a 1-run loss Friday. The Cubs, who have won 6 of 8, send a much better starter to the hill today in Dempster, who is 22-8 against the money line when pitching on Saturday in his career and 5-1 against the money line in his last 6 starts vs. the Brewers. Take the Cubs at an excellent price.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Karl Garrett

Denver at DALLAS

Denver has been playing them LOW this postseason, as 4 of their last 5 in the playoffs have landed UNDER the posted price.

Dallas knows for them to have a shot at getting on board in this series they may have to force the tempo a little, and hit some open long-range shots.

The Mavericks have been OVER the posted total in 5 of their 7 playoff games, and when installed as the favorite, they are 17-8 OVER the posted price.

24 of Dallas' 43 home games this year have also landed HIGH, so I will stick with the trends, and look for a high-scoring game in Game 3 of this Denver-Dallas series.

Take the OVER.

2♦ OVER

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Sports Gambling Hotline

Cleveland at ATLANTA

A rare OVER for both the Cavaliers and the Hawks on Thursday.

We like this game to head back towards the UNDER trend.

Cleveland had been UNDER 4 in a row prior to Thursday's OVER, while Atlanta has played UNDER in 8 of their last 11 games overall.

With Williams, Horford, and Johnson ALL dealing with injuries, we just don't see the Atlanta offense being able to muster the offense needed to push this game OVER the posted price, and we know from watching Cleveland this season they will be content to "D" it up, and slow the pace down in this contest, making an OVER highly unlikely.

For the year, Cleveland has played LOW in 23 of 43 games on the highway, while Atlanta has gone UNDER in 25 of their 45 home games to date.

Take the UNDER in Game Three.

4♦ UNDER

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

Kansas City -130 at LA ANGELS 

I’m 18-8-1 with my last 27 overall free plays.

Let’s take the Royals for the road win over the Angels.

Zack Greinke has been all the rage this year in baseball and I see no reason to fade the kid now.

The right-hander is 6-0 with a 0.40 ERA in six starts this year, which includes three complete games and two shutouts.  Greinke has a ridiculous WHIP of 0.84 and has posted 54 strikeouts against just eight walks in 45 innings.

Joe Saunders will get the start for the Angels and he’s having a solid season, but he’s going to have his work cut out for him tonight.

Let’s face it, if Saunders surrenders even a single run here he puts his team in serious jeopardy of losing.  That’s how good Greinke is right now.

The Royals offense had been cruising along before being held to one run last night.  I’m banking on their bats making enough noise for Greinke to get the easy win here.

Take the Royals as they grab the road win.

4♦ KANSAS CITY

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

Seattle at MINNESOTA -125 

While neither team is playing particularly well, the Mariners are tail-spinning right now, losers of 6 of their last 7, inlcuding 5 in a row. But its not just that they're losing, but how they're losing, being outscored 30 to 4 in their last 4 games! Even with Hernandez on the hill, he can't do it all on his own, and that's where Seattle gets into trouble tonight.

The Mariners Hernandez is a stud no doubt, but he'll be facing off against the resurgent Francisco Liriano, who's pitching a lot like the guy we remember in 2006. His last two starts have been rock-solid, allowing 4 runs over his last 14 innings, shutting down the Rays and Tigers in back-to-back starts. He's been especially good at the Metrodome, posting a 3.20 ERA in 19 2/3 innings there this season. He's also 2-2 with 2.32 ERA in 5 career starts against Seattle!

No surprise the Twins got back on track at home yesterday, as their 4-8 road record is no accident. Minnesota is 44-20 in their last 64 at the Metrodome, and after Friday's 11-0 shellacking of the Mariners, you can see why they're tough to beat at home. Not only that, but Minnesota has been swinging the bats particularly well over their last 10 games, batting .306 as a team and averaging 5.4 runs per game over that span!

Bottom line, may be tempting to jump on Hernandez here, but if you've seen Liriano pitch over his last 2 starts, you know this match up is a lot closer than their individual records indicate. With Seattle slumping at the plate big-time, look for the Twins to add to the Mariners misery here, as they notch another solid "W" in this one.

Take Minnesota behind Liriano over Seattle and Hernandez in this MLB match up.

3♦ MINNESOTA

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Free Selection from Totals4U
Saturday's free selection: Detroit/Cleveland under 10

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257 - 170 run  60 %   

Sat   DODGERS

Fri Red Sox  Ty

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Free Play: MLB St Louis w/Lohse +100 Over Cincinnati

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Bobby Maxwell

Seattle +110 at MINNESOTA 

Four of the last five days we've delivered a FREE winner for you, including Friday night's winner on the Red Sox over Tampa Bay. Today we've got another one for you as we play the Mariners to get the job done in Minnesota against the Twins.

The Mariners are definitely the right call in this matchup as they've got Felix Hernandez (4-1, 3.38 ERA) on the mound tonight and he's been as steady as they come this season.

Seattle is on runs of 4-0 when Hernandez faces A.L. Central teams, 5-1 in his last six starts overall, 8-2 when he starts as a road 'dog and 7-3 when he starts on Satruday. Throw in the fact they are 8-1 in their last nine games against Southpaws and you've got to love the Mariners in this one.

Minnesota has won just one of their last six games and they are just 1-4 with starter Francisco Liriano on the mound at home, 0-5 when he's a favorite and 2-5 in his last seven against A.L. West competition. Liriano is just 1-4 this season with a 5.30 ERA and he just doesn't look like the same pitcher that emerged about three seasons ago as a dominant force. That injury has really taken a toll on him.

The Mariners got off to the great start but they've slumped lately. But even through the slump they've been able to get consistency from Hernandez. Play Seattle in this one with the ace on the hill.

4♦ SEATTLE

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Chicago at Milwaukee

Milwaukee is 36-17 their last 53 games vs. winning teams and they are 9-3 off a win. Starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo has allowed 3 or less runs in 5 of his six starts this year. The Brewers are 6-2 their last 8 games vs. righty starters. Chicago is 2-8 in Ryan Dempster's last 10 starts as road underdogs and they are 17-36 their last 53 games as underdogs of +110 to +150. Chicago is 0-6 their last 6 games as underdogs. PLAY ON MILWAUKEE (Gallardo vs. Dempster)

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Dwayne Bryant

TOR (-110) vs OAK

Toronto (20-12) leads the majors in runs (193) and batting average (.290). The Jays average 6.4 rpg on the road while batting .302. The Jays are also 9-2 in day games this season.Brian Tallet gets the ball for Toronto. Tallet has pitched well with the exception of two starts ago at Kansas City, when he got shelled for 10 runs and 11 hits in 4 innings. But KC has been playing well; Oakland has not. He bounced back nicely in his last start, allowing 3 runs on 4 hits in 7 innings vs. Cleveland.Tallet should do well again today, as the A's are 3-9 vs. lefty starters (3.2 rpg, .202 BA). Oakland is also just 4-7 in day games, batting .217. Tallet faced the A's on 4/18 in Toronto and allowed just 1 earned run on 4 hits in 5 1/3 innings.Sean Gallagher is making a spot start for the injured Brett Anderson, who is nursing a blister on a finger on his left hand. Gallagher made 21 starts last season for Oakland and the Chicago Cubs. In his two starts against the Blue Jays, the right-hander posted a 7.88 ERA in losing both.The Jays are the much better hitting team and the pitching matchup today appears to favor them as well. Take Toronto and Tallet over Oakland and Gallagher for a half-unit.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Tampa Bay at Boston
Pick: Boston -140

Tampa Bay has a losing record overall and on the road. Boston is 19-11 on the season and 12-3 at home. Yet we are laying just -140 here. Boston has gone 17-5 in their last 22 games. Yet they are laying just -140 here at home. The Rays average 4.4 runs per game on the road and 3.5 per game vs. LHP. Boston averages 6.1 per game vs. LHP and 6.9 per game at home. Yet, we are laying just -140 here. The Red Sox have the bullpen advantage and... well, you get the idea. This is obviously the Scott Kazmir factor but it's an overreaction. Is Kazmir enough to virtually even out a game here with the advantages Boston has? No. And, further reason to like Boston here is that Kazmir is just 3-3 on the season with a 6.00 ERA. Jon Lester is no slouch. He's posted a better ERA on the season than Kazmir. With Lester on the mound, the Red Sox are 20-3 the past three seasons as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is just 4-13 this season to a line of +125 to -125 including 2-9 on the road in that situation.Boston gets the call here.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

SharpMoneyMoves

3-Units Cincinnati Reds +100

It seems as if the odds makers haven't figured out that this is not the same Reds team that we have seen over the past few years. This Reds team has a solid group of pitchers to go along with a better than average offense. No, the Reds offense isn't as good as the Cardinals, but they have been getting the job done recently. In fact, their hitting .293 vs righties over their last 10 games as compared a Cardinals team that is hitting .242 over their last 10 vs rightes. The Reds also have a solid pitcher going tonight in Aaron Harang. Harang has allowed 2 or less run in 4 of his 6 starts this year, and has been solid at home holding teams to a .225 BAA in his home starts. He will be opposed by Kyle Lohse of the Cardinals. Lohse is coming off of his worst performance of the season, allowing 6 earned runs in only 4 innings of work against the Phillies on Monday. Prior to that start Loshe had allowed a total of 7 earned runs over his previous 5 starts. The question is, which Loshse shows up on Saturday? We hope it's the same one that showed up vs the Phillies. Cincinnati has won two in a row, even though they have been dealing with the flu bug as a team. Brandon Phillips will be back tonight to help get the offense going. St. Louis has struggled at Great American Park, going 1-4 over their last 5. Were getting the Red Hot Reds at a very good price with a very decent pitcher on the mound in Harang. Let's see if they can make it 3 wins in a row.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Greg Shaker

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks
Play: Hawks +8.5  -110

Sometimes there is not much to say about a play except to say that we have an extreme over-adjustment to a betting line. In this case it is due to the whoopings that the Hawks have recieved in the first 2 games of this series. I stayed away from both of those games, at least picking the side, because that is what the Cavs do, and have done to a lot of teams traveling to The City of Rock and Roll. This is not there and the preferred style of music here is Urban Comtemporary, Rap, and the Blues. That is why I like this play. Ok, that is not why I like this play, but I do think that those that have driven this line upward are going to be singing the blues. In effect, with homecourt taken into light, this current line would make Cleveland at 16 to 17 point favorite if it were played back in Ohio. That gives us very good value indeed and Atlanta is not going to bow out that easily. While the Cavs are resting on their laurels, they have have just a 1 Point win here at this Arena and a 5 Point loss at this Arena. There is going to be somewhat of a letdown more than likely today as Cleveland clearly understands that they just need to win their home contests to get this series, and although, they would like to end it early, our minds work in mysterious ways sometimes, not allowing us to get what we want. Perhaps the next game they win. Perhaps they win a close one here today. They will be in for a different kind of Atlanta Squad who should be more focused than they are. Play the Hawks Moneyline? That might be a good idea, but I certainly will grab these unusually high points today.

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