Friday Service Plays

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NBA Basketball Premium Picks
NBA | May 08 '09 (7:05p)
Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic     Orlando Magic
-4-105 at spbook
3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Magic -4
No Rafer Alston for the Magic tonight, but I expect them to get the job done anyway. They were able to win in Philly without Dwight Howard, who is a much bigger piece of the puzzle, in their first round series so they shouldn't have a problem at home without Alston. After getting worked in Game 2, you can expect Orlando to play with a much bigger sense of urgency tonight. Orlando has won 20 of its last 26 at home against Boston and 5 of its last 6 at home against Boston the last 3 seasons. It's important to note that the Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 14-3 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Boston defense has not been nearly as good in these playoffs without Garnett, especially on the road. Lay the points.

-= TOP PLAY =-
NBA | May 08 '09 (9:35p)
Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets     Los Angeles Lakers
-115 at bookm
5* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GOTY on Lakers pk
I don't see the Lakers trailing in this series again. Game 1 was a wake up call and LA showed in Game 2 that it would not be out-muscled by the Rockets with its physical play. The Lakers won both meetings at Houston during the regular season, and I expect them to take care of business tonight. The Lakers will be without Fisher, but that gives the Rockets no real advantage as Jordan Farmar is very capable of stepping in. The LA Lakers are 8-0 ATS in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with LA winning these game by an average score of 111.9 to 96.4. It's hard to get quality shots without good ball movement stemming from penetration, and the Rockets don't get good penetration nearly enough. Houston is only 2-13 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 100 or more points this season. Lastly, plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more, are 32-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. This super system makes my last point. The Lakers just have too much fire power to contend with. Take LA!


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MLB Baseball Premium Picks
MLB | May 08 '09 (8:10p)
Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox     Chicago White Sox
-115 at bodog
4* Major A.L. SMASH of the Week on White Sox -115
The White Sox broke their 4-game skid with a 6-0 win over Detroit last night and I like the Sox to rattle off another one at home here. While Texas has been swinging mighty bats in the early going, they haven't been hitting nearly as well on the road, scoring 1.1 runs per game less than their overall season average. Contreras has not been good for the Sox in the early going, but let's face it, he's due. Plus no real edge goes to the Rangers here because Harrison has struggled so badly in the early going for them. The White Sox are 24-7 against the money line in home games after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons and 27-10 against the money line in home games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. But here's the clincher: plays on home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games, are 36-10 since 1997. Bet the Sox.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

LEE KOSTROSKI

Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Kansas City Royals

The road team has won 12 of the last 16 meetings between these teams and Kansas City should continue a red hot six-game winning streak in this series opener. Kansas City has been one of the most profitable teams in baseball so far this season and the Royals have out-scored opponents by 32 runs in just 29 games this season. Kansas City is 8-5 in road games and 10-6 in games against right-handed starters. This is clearly a different Royals team and a team that is ready to win now after years of rebuilding. Gil Meche has been a reliable option at the top of the rotation and he has just one bad start to his credit in six outings this season. Meche is yet to allow a home run in 37 innings pitched and he is backed up by an excellent bullpen that has some of the best numbers in the AL.

The Angels have been a perennial playoff team but injuries have taken a significant toll already this season. The pitching staff has been decimated with injuries which has forced Matt Palmer into the rotation. Palmer pitched well in New York in his last start but he has only pitched in five career big league games and the overall numbers are mediocre. He has benefited from strong run support to pick up two wins and he could be exposed by a Royals team that is hitting well and will have a bit more film on him. Though a rookie, Palmer is 30-years old and has the stuff a of a career minor league forced into action, rather than a young player on the rise.

By a wide margin, the Angels have featured the worst bullpen in baseball. Los Angeles relievers own a collective ERA of 7.52 while opponents are hitting .311. The Angels have blown five save situations and taken eight losses from relievers while picking up a win in the bullpen just once. The Angels bullpen has allowed nearly three times as many runs as the Royals bullpen this season. Given that advantage and featuring a pitcher much more likely to go deep into the game the Royals are an attractive play in a nearly evenly priced match-up.

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Dennis Macklin

St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Under

Joel Piniero has been outstanding this year going 4-1 with a 3.24 ERA. He's been even better againts the Reds going 3-0 and 2.22 lifetime. Cincy's Johnny Cueto has been almost unhittable at 2-1 and 1.65 but doesn't always get run support from Red lineup. Cueto hasn't been any mystery to the Cards at 0-2 and 16.19 in two starts making play on the total under far preferable to a side. Take St Louis/Reds under.

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Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Arizona Diamondbacks -130

The D-backs return home after a long 8-game road trip and I expect them to get back in the win column tonight against the lowly Nats. Arizona has won 10 of the last 13 in this series and Washington is just 13-46 in its last 59 road games. Martis has been a pleasant surprise for the Nats, at home, but he has been awful on the road. In fact, the Nationals are 0-4 in Martis' last 4 road starts. Petit has struggled for the Snakes, but he has to pick up his first win sometime, and tonight looks like a good night, especially since the Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 7-3 in their last 10 games following a loss. Plus, the Nationals are only 9-21 in their last 30 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. But here's the clincher: Washington is 0-11 against the money line in road games after batting .333 or better over a 3 game span over the last 3 seasons. Take Zona at home.

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Dwayne Bryant

CLE / DET Over 9

Cleveland's Cliff Lee is 0-7 with an 8.28 ERA in his last 8 home starts against Detroit. Detroit's Justin Verlander is 1-7 with a 10.24 ERA in his last 8 road starts in Cleveland.Cleveland's bullpen owns a 6.65 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, while Detroit's pen sports a 4.63 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. So we can expect some help on the scoreboard when the relievers come into this one.13 of the last 18 in this series at Cleveland have gone OVER.

Take the OVER in this one.

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Brian Joseph

Philadelphia Phillies (-170) over Atlanta Braves

Do you think Cole Hamels is finally 100% and not snakebitten this year? I’m not completely sold but with the Braves tossing out Jo-Jo Reyes, the Phillies can overcome another rocky Hamels outing if it happens. The number is pretty big but Hamels has pitched well in his last two outings even though they were shortened by non-throwing injuries. That being said, the offensive output of the Phillies can overwhelm any poor pitching outing, even one by an ace like Hamels.

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Rocketman Sports

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets    
Play: Houston Rockets +1.5   

Houston is 10-2 ATS this year after a loss by 10 points or more. Houston is a very good 36-8 at home this year allowing only 90.5 points per game on their home court. LA Lakers have lost 4 of their last 6 games overall ATS. Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!

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Larry Ness

Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers

The 16-12 Cubs and the 16-13 Brewers open a three-game series at Miller Park tonight. The Cubs took two of three games earlier this year (April 10-12) at this venue and while both of these teams qualified for last year's postseason (Cubs won the NL Central with the Brewers grabbing the wild card), each find themselves staring up at the 19-10 Cards after about five weeks of play in 2009. The Cubs placed Carlos Zambrano on the 15-day DL this past Monday with a strained hamstring and will turn to Randy Wells tonight. Wells has pitched well in Triple-A , going 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA in five starts and 21 strikeouts in 26 innings. However, this will be his first major league start. He previous major league experience has consisted of 5.1 scoreless innings spanning four relief appearances last year, three of those games coming as a Cub. The Brewers will counter with Dave Bush (1-0, 4.36 ERA). The Brewers began 2009 just 4-9 but have won 12 of their last 16 games. Milwaukee had gone 99-63 (.611) during the 2006 and 2007 seasons in Miller Park but the team's road woes (59-103, .364) during that same two-year span, kept them a sub-.500 team. However, the Brewers went 41-40 on the road last year (49-32 at home), which allowed them to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982. No pitcher on the team's staff has better mirrored Milwaukee's home/away dichotomy these last three seasons, than tonight's starting pitcher. Dave Bush posted a 33-31 record (4.57 ERA) from 2006 through 2008, with the Brewers going 46-47 in his 93 starts. However, note the home and away breakdowns. The Brewers were just 14-32 (5.58 ERA) in his road starts but 32-15 in his home outings (3.69 ERA). Bush has pitched slightly better on the road (3.68 ERA) in the early going of 2009 than at home (4.91 ERA), but let's focus on his three-year record. I'd be making a bigger play on Bush and the Brewers in this game, if not for his poor lifetime record against the Cubs. He has lost five straight decisions to Chicago since his lone victory (Aug 9, 2006) and is 1-7 with a 4.80 career ERA in 12 starts (team is 1-11) and 13 lifetime appearances against Chicago. Still, I'll make a small play on the Brewers.

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GREG SHAKER

MLB: Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
Play: WhiteSox

I am not going to sugarcoat the performance that the WhiteSox Hurler has put forth this year. The Guy has been horrible. He had one of his worst performances verses these Rangers just a few days ago, allowing 7 runs over 3.1 innings at Arlington. But Harrison has not been too spiffy either as I have stated many times before, the starter in any contest is only part of the puzzle. Having said that, I will say this. Harrison has not shown me anything away from home, with 25 hits, 2 Dingers, and poor K/BB ratios in 16.2 innings of work. I don't see any advantage for either team along this line but I do see one with the Bullpens, as Chicago, despite not winning much lately, has gotten superior work out of their's in the last 10 games played. Mark Buehrle gave Chicago what they needed last night, and that puts this team back into focus, and back in a better situation here at their homepark, verses Texas who beat them 2 of 3 in Texas. It also puts them back into their best hitting posture, as recently they have banged Southpaws at 65 points higher with batting average, and they have beaten lefties the last 14 of 19 here at this park. BINGO! The Rangers have never been a good road proposition, they have lost their last 4 of 5 here in Chicago, and they have traveled halfway across this country following a loss. Offensive numbers, and especially verses righthanded throwing have been down for Texas when they stay in Hotels. Jose's last home thrown game was not too bad, allowing just 3 runs over 7 innings. He does have some good support behind him with secondary pitching. I will lay this small number.

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Dave Malinsky

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox

We certainly did not expect to find the Red Sox at even money, or even a plus return, in this one, but with the early markets creating that opportunity we will not pass it up. With Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz returning to the lineup tonight, and with Fenway Park a complete “House of Horrors” for James Shields, this is an excellent fit.

Shields has worked to an abysmal 0-4/9.56 from this mound in his career, and when the starter gets cuffed around that badly it is not easy for the team to compete – the Rays lost those four starts by a combined 19 runs. And we are not talking about ancient history – just a month ago he got rocked for five runs in 5.1 innings and it could have been worse. Dustin Pedroia and Jason Varitek hit home runs against him in that one, and of the other 10 batters that reached via either a hit or a walk, only three scored. It was a single-game 8.44 that was worse than it appears because of the good fortune of the strand rate. And behind Shields tonight there are problems galore in the Tampa bullpen. J. P. Howell, Dan Wheeler, Brian Shouse and Joe Nelson worked each of the last two nights in the Bronx and carry high fatigue ratings, as does Lance Cormier off of 29 pitches over 1.2 innings last night. And while Troy Percival got Thursday off, he has worked four times in the last six days.

Meanwhile the markets have certainly shown a belief that Brad Penny’s 7.61 ERA over 23.2 innings defines him, but note that on Sunday he finally could have gotten a speeding ticket, taking the radar guns near the mid 90’s for the first time this season. He simply showed up for spring training out of shape but will gradually round into form, and behind him is a bullpen that brings the key arms rested and ready off of splitting back-to-back blowout games that did not produce any late-inning stress.

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Scott Rickenbach

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Under 8.5

Justin Verlander of the Tigers shows a 2-2 record and 5.66 ERA in the books. That is giving us value in a situation like this. He's struck out 45 in 35 innings. He's only allowed hitters to hit .257 against him and Verlander is coming off of a back to back stellar outings. Look for another strong effort from him tonight. As for the Indians, Cliff Lee shows an unimpressive 1-4 mark in the books so far this season. However, note that the southpaw has allowed just six earned runs combined in his last four starts!

Cliff Lee was 10-0 at home last season and even though he's 0-2 at Progressive Field this season, note his solid 2.57 ERA at home! This one has all the makings of a pitchers duel. Yes, Lee got hit quite hard at Detroit in his last outing but he's a different pitcher at home. As for Verlander, he's on top of his game right now! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Cleveland on Friday night. Thank you for checking in here and don't miss Scott Rickenbach's 15-6 (71%) MLB run and long-term 68-44 Hoops Top Play run both being put to the test on Friday night!

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CG Betting Consultants

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Toronto Blue Jays 

Tonight CG's freebie is the Toronto Blue Jays. CG never lays more than -130, except in rare situations. When he only likes two big favorites, he will parlay them. In this freebie you have the Toronto Blue Jays traveling to Oakland to take on the struggling Oakland Athletics. The Oakland A's, 5-8 at home, will start (L) Outman 0-0 with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. Oakland are 2-5 in L7 home games and are 0-4 in L4 vs. right-handed pitchers. The Blue Jays, 9-7 on the road will start (R) Richmond 4-0 with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Toronto are 8-1 in L9 meetings and are 5-2 in L7 meetings in Oakland. Lay the small price on the better pitcher and the better team.

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John Ryan

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies    
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia as the host the division rival Braves. – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 41-17 making 32.8 units since 2003. Play on any NL team with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season and after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. Atlanta is 3-10 (-9.7 Units) against the money line versus good defensive catchers allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season; 3-9 (-9.3 Units) against the money line versus a NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better this season. Atlanta’s starter Reyes is just 9-21 (-14.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. Philly bullpen, which was the core strength of the 2008 World Championship, is pitching well again this year posting a 3.63 ERA and is 8-3 on the season. Take the Phillies.

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Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -120

The Cubs have caught a little bit of fire, by smart money goes on the Brew Crew tonight, as I like their big bats against Cubs no-namer Randy Wells. Plus, the Brewers send Dave Bush to the hill and he has been one of the most profitable home hurlers to back. In fact, the Brewers are 20-8 in Bush's last 28 home starts and an even more impressive 17-4 in Bush's last 21 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Cubs have had Bush's number in the past, but I like his chances tonight with a great lineup behind him. Plus, the Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Take the Beer Makers!

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Nite Owl Sports

Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
3 units ATS: Boston Celtics +4

Well, both of these teams have taken turns beating up on each other on the scoreboard, with Magic blowing out to a big HT lead in game on and then holding on for a 5 point win, and Celtics following that with a much better performance in a wire to wire game 2 win. But a foolish “head slap” in the third quarter of game two may go a long way in determining the outcome of game 3, as with magic point guard Rafer Alston suspended and #1 point guard Jameer Nelson already injured and out for the year, the Orlando Magic are running out of point guards. The NBA suspended Alston for this game after viewing films of a blatant “head slap” delivered by a frustrated Alston to the back of Eddie House’s head (a really stupid move, despite Alston’s contention afterward that House had goaded him into doing it). So with Alston in the NBA’s “dog house,” that leaves the point guard dutires for Magic in the hands of 34-year-old Anthony Johnson and seldom-used Tyronn Lue for this Game 3 against the Boston Celtics in their Eastern Conference semifinal series. And we well remember how the Magic struggled mightily for a stretch in mid-season after Nelson went down with his season ending shoulder injury, until Alston (acquired in a trade with Houston during All Star break) had played enough games with Magic to get comfortable directing their offense.

Moreover, despite the obvious talent on this Magic team, we’re not sure they have the “character” necessary to make a serious run at the NBA title. Unlike the Celtics, who came back and almost caught Orlando in game one after a horrible first half (where they showed the obvious “wear and tear” from their tough 7 games series against Chicago, and were down by 18 at HT), the Magic pretty much “packed it in” after getting behind early in game two. And physical play has frustrated the Magic throughout the playoffs and ballooned into a series of foolish retaliations, a weakness that crafty Celtics head coach Doc Rivers will try to continue to take advantage of as the series shifts to Orlando, tied at 1-1. For example, Dwight Howard lost his cool and elbowed Samuel Dalembert in the head in game 5 of Magic’s first round Philly series to draw a suspension for Game 6, although Orlando still managed to win over the “sorry” Sixers, in a game where Magic’s Hedo Turkoglu was ejected for an incident with Dalembert. Then the usually calm J.J. Redick was ordered out of the arena Wednesday in game two at Boston for arguing with officials after he fouled out. Part of being a good head coach is keeping your players under control, something that is not easy when half the players on the team make more $ than the head coach does, but Boston’s Rivers does a much better job of it (and all other aspects of coaching) than Magic’s Van Gundy.

But let's also take a look at some numbers and records which are relevant to this game. First, Boston is 3-1 ATS the last two years in Orlando, including 2-0 TY, with a ten point win and then a two point loss in March, a game in which Kevin Garnett played, but only sparingly (just 16 minutes, as he was being worked slowly back into the line up after missing several games with a knee injury), and was not a factor, scoring just four points on 2-5 shooting. And in that game, Magic stud Dwight Howard was dominant, scoring 24 points on 11-18 shooting and grabbing 21 off the glass, but Magic as a team shot just 37%, and frittered away most of an 8 point lead after three quarters to end up victorious by just two and not cover ATS, allowing the Boston backers to line up at the "pay window" after the game.

And how has Boston done TY on the road when playing the NBA's top defensive teams (Orlando being in the top five defensively, even though they did not look like it in game two)? Other than their two bad losses to Cavs at the "Q," a place where they seem convinced they can't win (and thus don't), they were they were 4-1 ATS (with average margin of loss of just one point) in their other five road games against such teams, with two ATS wins at Orlando and SU wins at SA and Houston on the plus side, and a nine point loss to Lakers at Staples being their only ATS loss out of the five. On the other hand, the Magic were just 4-5 ATS at home TY vs such good defensive teams, with an average margin of victory of just 3 points in those games.

So combining and averaging the results of these two teams in these relevant representative games, and counting the two Celtics-Magic games in Orlando TY just twice instead of four times, we get an 8-5 ATS advantage for Boston, and a projected one point win for Magic, good enough to support this 3 unit ATS pick on Boston getting +4> points.

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Mike Rose

Chicago Cubs / Milwaukee Brewers Over

If not for landing on the DL, Carlos Zambrano would have toed the Miller Park rubber for the second time this season. Instead, Randy Wells will make his first big league start. Wells is pretty much an unknown commodity even though he’s appeared in four games in the past. The career minor leaguer is said chomping at the bit to prove himself in his first professional start.

David Bush has pitched exceptionally well for the Brewers thus far. Even though he sports just a 1-0 record, the righty is off to the best start in his six-year career. He’s allowed just 29 hits and 16 earned runs through 33 total innings of work, and boasts a solid K/BB ratio of 25/9. He’s played the role of a piñata against the Cubs though, going 1-7 with a 4.98 ERA in 12 overall starts; his team went 1-11 in those starts. He was robbed of a rare victory against the Cubs earlier this season when Carlos Villanueva surrendered a go-ahead two-run bomb to Alfonso Soriano in the top of the 9th of the Brewers gut-wrenching 6-5 defeat.

Both clubs offenses come into the first of this sports betting series on fire; especially Milwaukee’s. With Wells pretty much an unknown and Bush getting pounded regularly by the Cubs offense, look for tonight’s game to be of the higher scoring variety. The ‘over’ is 12-4-2 the L/18 overall meetings, and it’s a $$$-making 14-4-2 the L/18 times these clubs hooked up in Milwaukee. This rivalry has really turned into one of the best baseball has to offer. Big leads are never safe, and neither team should ever be counted out until the 27th out is rung up. Look for Miller Park’s scoreboard to get a workout Friday night!

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Free Selection from Totals4U
Friday's free selection: Atlanta/Philadelphia over 9 1/2

===========================================

Free Selection from Mike Wynn
Free Play: Boston w/Penny +100 Over Tampa Bay

===========================================

Free Selection from Harry Doyle Sports
NHL:  Pittsburgh Penguins - 170

===========================================
EZ'S FREE SELECTION

(719) Los Angeles Lakers -1

The Lakers bounced back with a big win in game two of
this series and I expect them to gain back the home court
advantage with a win in this game. Derrick Fisher will be
out due to a suspension, but Jordan Farmar matches up
better with Houston's quick point guards. Kobe will have
another huge game. Lakers win game three.

2009 Free Selections Record  68-56  (54.8%)

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