Wednesday Service Plays

Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Tom Stryker

MILWAUKEE with Parra (+100) over Cincinnati

Cincinnati took two out of three at Milwaukee back in the middle of April and its time for the Brew Crew to return the favor at the Great American Ball Park.

The Reds have won only four of 11 home games this season and they're hoping for a solid performance from veteran right-hander Bronson Arroyo. That's not going to happen. So far this year, Arroyo has made two starts in Cincy against Atlanta and New York (Mets) and been blasted for 14 earned runs and 17 hits in only 11.2 frames. That adds up to an embarrassing 10.80 ERA!

Milwaukee will counter with southpaw Manny Parra. Back on April 14th, Parra faced the Reds at Miller Park and pitched a nice game. In 6.0 innings of work, Manny was touched for only three earned runs and three hits. Unfortunately, the Brewers couldn't produce at the plate and the Reds prevailed 6-1. Even though the Brew Crew has dropped 15 of their last 18 with No. 26 on the mound, Milwaukee has cashed six of its last seven on foreign fields and 11 of its last 14 overall. Take Milwaukee with listed pitcher Parra.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

John Ryan

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets    
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia as they travel to face the rival Mets slated to start at 7:10 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 102-106 for 49% winners, but has made a whopping 84.7 units since 1997. These are the supporting systems that you simply need to record for your own use as games qualify. Play against all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings facing an opponent with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 31-13 making 21.9 units since 2003. Play on any NL team with a good OBP >=.340 facing a very good starting pitcher sporting a WHIP<=1.250 and with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start. Philadelphia bats are coming alive and so is the bullpen. Their real strength last season was a consistent offense and an even more dominating bullpen. Over the past 7 games, Phils are hitting 283 with a OBP of 382 and scoring 7.1 RPG. When facing LH starters, the Phils are a very impressive 5-1 batting 307 and scoring 7.7 RPG. Phils bullpen sports an 8-2 mark and 3-0 road mark this season. Park is a solid 13-4 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus an NL team with a team batting average of .275 or better since 1997. Mets are 5-11 (-10.3 Units) against the money line versus a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse over the last 3 seasons; 4-10 (-8.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 4-12 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 3 seasons. Take the Phils.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Vernon Croy

Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox    
Play: Cleveland Indians

We are getting solid value here tonight with the Indians since this pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Red Sox are coming off a huge series against the Yankees and Rays. This is the Red Sox first game back after a long 9 game road trip so this is a perfect let down spot for them and Masterson who got lit up in his last outing which was against the Rays. Masterson gave up 2 homeruns and 6 hits while walking 3 batters over just 6 innings, Masterson left the game with 6 earned runs. Pavano looks to build on his first win of the season and which was on the road against the Tigers where he allowed 0 walks and just 5 hits over 7.3 innings. Pavano does not allow many walks and he has exceptional control so I look for another solid start from him tonight after a rough start to the season. Pavano has struggled against the Red Sox in the past with a 1-3 record and an ERA of 8.18 over 5 starts against them but he has not faced them since 2005 so you can throw that stat out the window. Take Cleveland at a great price as your MLB Free Play for Wednesday night.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Vegas Experts

Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic have gone UNDER the total in four straight games and a fifth game is very likely. The Boston Celtics are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA holding opponents to just over 95 points per game in Boston. Orlando has not scored over 100 points in seven tries against the Celtics. The Magic are 14-4 UNDER coming off back-to-back road games and 13-5 UNDER after a win by 6 or more points. Expect another low scoring game again tonight in Boston.

Play on: UNDER

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros
PICK: Under 9

With two lofty ERA's for these starting pitchers, the attention early on has gone to the over but we feel that will prove to be the wrong move here. Rich Harden of the Cubs had 35 strikeouts in 21 innings before running into trouble in his most recent start. He's fully capable of dominating a Houston lineup that has been very inconsistent at the plate this season.

As for the Astros Mike Hampton, the southpaw actually had been quite consistent early this season before he ran into trouble at Atlanta in his most recent start. Prior to that outing, Hampton had a 3.86 ERA on the season and had averaged nearly six innings per start. He's facing a Cubs lineup that has been inconsistent so far this season and we see value with the UNDER in Houston tonight.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Under

Arizona is 8-0-1 UNDER their last 9 games as road underdogs and they are and they are 7-0 UNDER after scoring two or less runs in their last game. The Diamondbacks are 18-6 UNDER vs. losing teams and they are 7-2-1 UNDER off a loss. San Diego is 27-11-2 in the last 40 home starts made by Jake Peavy and they are 6-2 UNDER their last 8 home games vs. righty starters. The Padres are 35-17-3 UNDER when Peavy starts Game 1 of a series. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Peavy vs. Garland)

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MTi Sports

Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Minnesota Twins

The Orioles are 5-25 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and the Twins are 19-5 as a road favorite after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits. Minnesota is the way to go here.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Frank Jordan

Arizona D-Backs vs. San Diego Padres     
Play: Arizona D-Backs   

Arizona has had a rough go of it in the first month plus of the season as Webb went down and they struggled at home. The road hasn't been to kind either as they are 3-6, but they send Jon Garland to the mound who is 2-1 on the year. San Diego is also sub .500 at 12-15, however at home they are playing well with 7 wins in their first 12 games. The Padres also have their ace on the mound in Jake Peavy, but Peavy hasn't been his dominate self with a 2-3 record and an era over 4.50. Look for length out of both starters with the bullpens needed to hold a lead late as Arizona edges out San Diego in the end 4-3. Play Arizona

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Dave Malinsky

Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros
PICK: Chicago Cubs

Some of the best concepts in sports betting come up rather infrequently, which means that we must take advantage when there are there. And the case of backing an “A” level performer off of a bad game comes to the front with Rich Harden here. Bad games are rare for pitchers of his caliber, but that is what happened vs. Florida on Friday, when he had some control problems in the fourth inning. Now we get a chance to play him in a rebound setting and note just how special he has been – in his Major League career he has worked to a 12-2/2.00 tune in 121.1 innings following a game in which he gave up four runs or more. That makes this one particularly strong, because it sets up well all the way around.

We cashed an easy 4* against the Cubs yesterday when Lou Piniella gave Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Theriot and Milton Bradley the day off, while Carlos Marmol and Scott Gregg were both unavailable in the bullpen. But now that all changes. The rested players come back fresh for this one, creating a strong right-handed lineup to play into Mike Hampton, and the bullpen brings major edges for the latter stages against a worn-out Houston corps.

Hampton got off to a decent start in his return from injury but we do not see the stuff to maintain a high level – he has already fallen off to an 0-1/6.48 over his last three outings, and the 5.1 innings per start that he is averaging is about all the stamina that he has. That makes this a particularly difficult night for Cecil Cooper to get through nine innings, with his starters failing to go past the fifth inning in the last five games, and the bullpen struggling to a 5.63 tune in that span. Those pen issues are exacerbated by the DL absences of Jose Valverde and Doug Brocail, and Geoff Geary because of yesterday’s work load. Without many hard throwers around, an Astro defense that rates #25 on our best chart so far this season gets further exposed, providing the Cubs with ample opportunities to break this one open.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

JACK JONES

Tampa Bay Rays/NY Yankees OVER 10

The Rays got off to a poor start this year offensively, but they have came alive as of late, scoring 6.1 runs over their last 7 game while hitting .290.  Againt right-handers this year they are scoring 5.8 runs pe game while hitting .282 and will be facing right-hander AJ Burnett tonight.  Burnett has given up 15 runs in his last 18.3 innings and has given up 3 home runs and 8 walks in 13.3 home innings this year.  Andy Sonnanstine of the Rays hasn't been very good at all, giving up 16 runs in 14.7 innings on the road, good for a 9.20 ERA and 2.11 WHIP.  Plus he has a 5.65 ERA in his 5 starts against the Yankees.  New York has scored 6.7 runs per game of their last 7 and 6 per against righties this year.  I think you'll see another high-scoring affair in the Bronx tonight.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Game Time Sports Advisors

Cleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox     
Play: Boston Red Sox -1.5

Sox coming off series vs NY, but we see no let-down here. We won't lay the high wood, instead we take the run line. Pavano has been awful going 1-3 with a 7.46 ERA in 5 starts this season. Masterson has been a gem at Fenway with a 2-0 record a sparkling 1.69 ERA. Beantown on fire, winners of 15 of 18 while Cleveland is just 5-10 on the road this season. Red Sox are 10-2 last 12, and 5-1 last 6 at home vs the Tribe. The dominance continues tonight.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Dwayne Bryant

DET (-105) vs CWS

The White Sox are at home where they were 7-2 against Detroit last season and Mark Buehrle is on the mound. Buerhle is 4-0 with a 3.30 ERA this season and he is 13-8 with a 2.96 ERA in 25 starts versus Detroit. And the ChiSox are only -115? Hmm.

The ChiSox have lost four straight and Armando Galarraga gave up just four hits in 6 1-3 innings of a 9-0 win over the White Sox on April 15 in his only previous start against them. I expect Galarraga  (3-1, 3.07) to bounce back from his poor outing last time out.

Detroit is also 6-3 vs. lefty starters this season, batting .296 and with a .369 OBP.

I'll take Detroit and Galarraga over Chicago and Buehrle for a half-unit.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Houston at Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -10

The Lakers got a rude awakening in game one as they were beaten rather soundly by the Rockets. It was a massive upset as the Lakers were laying 9 points but lost by 8. The problem was that Kobe took 31 shots, and was off, and the rest of the starters took just 40 combined. When they got open looks they just weren't able to connect and Bryant himself was just 1-7 beyond the arc. I look for the Lakers to be "awake" in this game and for Kobe to get everyone involved early and get others going so they can knock down some shots. The Rockets played about as good as they could play, but that always looks to be the case when your opponent is struggling to shoot the ball. Credit can certainly be given to the Rocket defense, but even when the Lakers went to the line they hit just 63% with no one on them at all. It was simply an off-night for the Lakers who struggled to shake off the rust from their long layoff. The Rockets have not been a good team on the road and they have not been a good team off an ATS win as they have followed with an 11-24 ATS mark off of an ATS win. The Lakers are too good not to come out with their "A" game in this one and that game is more than capable of a 10+ point win. The Lakers get the win and cover here.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Rays/Yankees OVER 10

Like the over tonight with a pair of power hitting teams facing off in the new Coors Field.  The Rays' Sonnanstine has an ERA of 9.20 on the road and A.J. Burnett has really struggled of late with an ERA of 7.36 over his last 3 starts.  The Yanks are 17-8 over in all games this season and 14-5 over against right-handed starters this season with the average score totaling 12.3 runs in matchups against the righties.  Tampa Bay is 18-5 over as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last 3 seasons, with the average score totaling 12.6 runs in this situation.  Take the Over.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

LARRY NESS

Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Minnesota Twins

The Twins lost a one-game playoff 1-0 to the White Sox in Chicago last year, just missing the postseason. The Orioles finished 68-93 in 2008, the team's 11th consecutive sub-.500 season. The Twins have opened 13-14 in 2009 and after a 6-2 start, the Orioles have gone 4-13 to come into this game at 10-17. Kevin Slowey goes for the Twins and 6'9" lefty Mark Hendrickson for the Orioles. Slowey was 4-1 with a 4.72 in 13 appearances (11 starts) in 2007 but improved to 12-11 with a 3.99 ERA in 2008 (team was 15-12 in his 27 starts). He's opened 2009 at 4-0 through five starts (team is 4-1), despite a 5.17 ERA. He's gotten great run support (35 runs) but let me also note that his lone road start of 2009, was also his best one of the year. He beat Cleveland 7-1 on April 25, allowing eight hits and just one ER over eight innings (seven Ks and zero walks). Mark Hendrickson began his career back in Toronto in 2002 and Baltimore is his fifth major league team. He's opened 1-4 in five starts this year, allowing 35 hits in 23.1 innings with a 6.17 ERA. Hendrickson can't count on any bullpen help either, as the team's relievers own a 5.86 ERA, while allowing opponents to hit .302. Slowey has been 'blessed' in the early going of 2009 and against Hendrickson and the Orioles, his good fortune should continue.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

LT Profits

Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels

Now it seems strange to like an Over in a game started by Roy Halladay of the Toronto Blue Jays, but the entire Los Angeles Angels staff has been struggling, and even Halladay has been off his game a tad lately.

The Angels are starting Anthony Ortega, who has hardly made an impact in his first two Major League starts. Ortega has a 5.56 ERA and high 1.41 WHIP in those two starts, and he has yet to go more than 6.1 innings. The significance of that is that the Halos bullpen will probably be called on relatively early, and that unit is dead last in the majors with an ugly cumulative 7.44 pen ERA.

Halladay remains one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he has uncharacteristically allowed at least three earned runs in three straight starts, including allowing five runs three starts back, and he was touched up for 10 hits by the Baltimore Orioles last start. It is also somewhat concerning that he has tossed 118 and 117 pitches in his last two starts, which may be a lot for this early in the season even for a workhorse like Halladay.

Besides, he does not even need to be that off if Ortega and the Los Angeles bullpen maintain their current forms.

Pick: Blue Jays/Angels Over 9

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Dave Price

1 Unit on Phillies +1.5 +105

The Phillies are a gift at this price tonight and we won't hesitate to back them as they are an impressive 8-2 on the road this season and 5-1 against lefty starters. In fact, the Phillies are averaging 7.7 runs per game against southpaw starters this season while the Mets are scoring only 4.7 runs against righties. Philly is 6-0 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season, winning by an average score of 7.3 to 4.0 in these games. Bet the Phillies tonight.

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