Monday Service Plays

Re: Monday Service Plays

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates +125

The Pirates are showing excellent value in the home underdog role with Paul Maholm on the hill. The Southpaw is 3-0 on the season with a 3.09 ERA, and he has been even better at home with a 2.77 ERA. Milwaukee swept Pittsburgh at home in their first series of the season against one another, winning two 1-run games. I expect the Pirates to go after some sweet revenge in this series. Pittsburgh is 10-2 against the money line after a game where it had 4 or less hits over the last 2 seasons so I expect the bats to bounce back tonight. Also, Maholm is 16-6 against the money line in his last 22 home games against a division opponent. Lastly, plays against road teams - below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a hot starting pitcher - ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts, are 42-15 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Bucs.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Texas at Seatlle

Seattle starter Felix Hernandez is 8-3 UNDER in 11 career starts vs. Texas and the Mariners are 14-5-2 UNDER when Hernandez starts Game One of a series. Seattle is 9-4-1 UNDER vs. a pitcher who has a WHIP of under 1.15. Texas is 6-1-1 UNDER when Kevin Millwood pictches with five days of rest. The Rangers are 8-0 UNDER with Millwood vs. an opponent who scored 5 or more runs in their last game. Texas is 5-1 UNDER their last 6 games overall and they are 6-1 UNDER in Game 1 of a series. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Millwood vs. Hernandez)

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Arizona at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -135

The Los Angeles Dodgers are flying at home as they stand at a perfect 10-0 on the season. The offense has been lethal as they have produced nearly seven runs a game at home thus far. That has to be an immediate concern for the light-hitting Diamondbacks who have produced just 2.1 runs a game on the road for the season - a major league worst. That puts a lot of pressure on Arizona starter Doug Davis, who has pitched better than his 1-3 record, but when your team scores two per game you're not going to win much. The Dodgers are also the fifth best in baseball producing against lefthanders at 5.5 runs a game. This is a tough spot for the D-Backs, and I'm going with the Dodgers in this one.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Jack Jones

Seattle Mariners -144 over Texas Rangers

Felix Hernandez is 4-0 this year with a 2.38 ERA, but even more impressive is his stretch of scoreless innings that has now reached 19.  He hasn't done real well against his opponents in the past, but either has Kevin Millwood.  Millwood is 0-5 with a 6.07 ERA the past two seasons against Seattle.  The Mariners have been ripping the cover off of the ball lately, tallying 69 hits in their last five games.  Texas is hitting just .228 on the road this year, so I'll take the team with the edge at the plate and on the hill tonight.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

Milwaukee at PITTSBURGH +125

I know there's a lot of love out there for the Brewers Yovanni Gallardo right now, and with good reason, as the young righty is 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA. He's coming off an impressive effort against these very same Pirates in his last one, tossing 8 scoreless and striking out 11 in the process last Wednesday. However, I just don't see him exerting that kind of dominance in back-to-back starts against this Bucs club. Not to mention, he'll have little room for error being opposed by a motivated Paul Maholm in this one.

Underestimate the Pirates southpaw at your own risk, as he's 3-0 with a 3.09 ERA, and will be plenty motivated after a tough outing against the Brewers in his last one. It was clearly his worst start thus far, and you and I both know he's capable of a much better effort, especially at PNC Park, where he was 7-2 with a 3.36 ERA last season! I know full well the Pirates have lost the last 8 starts he's made against them, but that brings me to my final point...

We all know the Pirates are struggling offensively right now, but so are the Brew Crew. Milwaukee has scored 12 runs and is batting just .228 over their last 5 games, and I believe a motivated Maholm is the last thing this offense needs right now. In the end, we're getting tremendous value with Maholm at home, especially with the everyone falling in love with Gallardo very early on. He'll be rock-solid, but let's not get too carried away, Maholm at plus money, at PNC Park, is rock-solid.

Take Pittsburgh behind Maholm over Milwaukee and Gallardo in this MLB match up.

2&#9830; PITTSBURGH

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

Houston at LA LAKERS -8' 

I’m 15-6-1 with my last 22 overall free plays.

Take the Lakers tonight minus the points over the Rockets.

I know Los Angeles has been biding its time waiting for the outcomes of the rest of the first-round matchups, but this team is so good it shouldn’t take them long to get back into rhythm.

The Lakers swept the four-game season series from the Rockets, both SU and ATS.  They had two easy wins at Staples Center, 111-82 as a seven-point chalk on Nov. 9 and 93-81 as a 5 ½-point favorite on April 3.

Houston is on ATS slides of 3-9 against the Pacific, 10-24-1 after a spread-cover and 2-6 on the road against teams with winning home records.

Take the Lakers minus the points as they grab the win and cover.

2&#9830; LA LAKERS

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Game Time Sports Advisors

Arizona D-Backs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Arizona D-Backs 

Doug Davis has been outstanding in 3 of his last 4 starts. The Dbacks don't hit lefties well but there is a lot of value in this matchup based upon the Dodgers 10-0 home record against the SD, Colorado and the Giants.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

CG Betting Consultants

Cincinnati Reds vs. Florida Marlins    
Play: Under   

Tonight for CG's freebie it is going to be the UNDER in the Cincinnati Reds at the Florida Marlins. In this one you have 2 of the top 15 oitchers in the NL which always calls for an under play according to CG's system which wins 70% of the time. The Reds start (R) Harang 2-3 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. The Marlins will start (R) Johnson 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. CG expects a oitching duel, so play the under.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Tony George

Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Houston Rockets +8.5

Yes LA swept them 4-0 this season, but LA has some issues with focus and finishing games against Utah, and Houston beat whom I felt was a very good Portland team with basic fundamental team basketball and a strong low post game. LA struggled with good low post teams and Houston’s Ming should be able to pick up lots of easy buckets along the way here against a not 100% Bynum for LA. The Rockets are allowing 88 ppg on defense (last 5 games) and they like to slow the pace, which can disrupt LA. While LA is considered the odds on favorite in everyone’s book, they played 1 solid game against Utah in that series, and the rest of those series games they kinda limped home. Houston is a team that makes few mistakes, play good defense and can hit perimeter shots and eat clock.

Free Play on the Rockets tonight.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Robert Homyak

5 Units on Florida Marlins

The Reds defeated Pittsburgh 5-0 as a -125 favorite on Sunday. The five runs scored fell UNDER the posted over/under total (8.5).

Johnny Cueto pitched eight shutout innings, allowing only four hits while striking out nine for Cincinnati and Ramon Hernandez had three RBI in the win.

The Marlins lost to the Cubs 6-4 as a +135 underdog on Sunday. The 10 runs scored went OVER the posted over/under total (9).

John Baker was 3-4 with a solo home run and three runs scored for Florida, while Ricky Nolasco surrendered five earned runs on eight hits in six innings.

Johnson and the Marlins are 4-1 in games in which he's pitched. Marlins are 8-1 in their last 9 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Marlins are 4-0 in Johnsons last 4 starts with 4 days of rest, 7-1 in Johnsons last 8 starts.

The Reds, Aaron Harang has alternated losses and wins over his five starts. In 32 innings, Harang has allowed 33 hits and 11 earned runs. He was 2-1 in three starts against the Marlins last season, 6.98 earned run average in 19 1/3 innings while striking out 14 and walking four. The Reds are 1-4 in Harangs last 5 starts as a road underdog. 1-7 in Harangs last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record, 0-4 in Harangs last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Head to Head
Reds are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in Florida.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

RJ Robbins

Cincinnati Reds vs. Florida Marlins    
Play: Florida Marlins   

Florida heads home after losing 3 in a row to the Cubs and are 3-10 after starting the season 11-1. J. Johnson takes the mound tonight where he is 2-0 at home with a 0.40 ERA. Cincinnati starter A.Harang did post a 2-1 record last season against the Marlins however his era was over 6.00. FLORDIA-1.49

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

Washington vs Houston

Two of the weaker offenses in the National League square off this evening. That said, a total of a 9.5 is too high here. The Nationals have particularly struggled to score runs and Brian Moehler - while he doesn't have dominating stuff - has the ability to mix pitches and keep an overaggressive lineup off balance.

As for John Lannan, we really like the Nationals hurler. He matches up well with the Astros lineup and has enjoyed a number of quality starts when he's healthy. He produces well and the biggest key of all here is that we really don't need anything spectacular out of either starter. The total of 9.5 is quite generous and neither lineup has been very productive this season. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Washington on Monday night.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Nelly

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Play: Under

This match-up will feature two of the top pitchers in the American League so far this season. Kevin Millwood has great numbers, with a 2.13 ERA and a WHIP ratio of less than one. Despite Texas being known as a high-scoring offense, none of the five games that Millwood has started played 'over' the total. Millwood has also pitched at least seven innings in every start this year which will limit the opportunities of a marginal Texas bullpen.After years of hopes, Felix Hernandez appears on his way to delivering his first sensational season. Hernandez is already 4-0 on the year and his strikeout numbers are impressive. He has also cut down on walks considerably this year. Seattle's bullpen has been one of the best in baseball with a 2.09 ERA in home games so Texas should have a hard time scoring runs.The Rangers have been mainly productive against left-handers this season as Texas is hitting just .253 against right-handers. Josh Hamilton's trip to the DL has also had a big impact on the numbers as the 'under' is 4-1 in his absence. Seattle's success this season has been built on pitching as the offense is not posting big numbers. Seattle is averaging just one four runs scored per game despite being five games over .500.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Ben Burns

Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

Both starters bring some ugly numbers to the table. Carmona has a 6.28 ERA. Tallet has a 6.45 ERA, including a 6.60 mark as a starter. Carmona is better than his numbers indicate though and he's coming off a solid (2 runs in 6 2/3 innings) effort. The same can't be said for Tallet, who was rocked for 10 runs in four innings in his last start.

Carmona is 2-0 against the Jays and was dominant in last season's lone start against them. He outpitched Burnett in that game, tossing a complete game 5-hit shutout, en route to a 3-0 Cleveland victory. Including that result, the Indians are 11-5 the last 16 meetings in this series - they swept the Jays here last season. It's also worth noting that the Indians have won 57 of their last 100 against southpaw starters. Consider Cleveland

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Larry Ness

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners

Felix Hernandez made a HUGE 'splash' in 2005, making 12 starts. His record was just 4-4 but his ERA was 2.67, plus he allowed just 61 hits in 84.1 IP, striking out 77 with only 23 walks. Things did not go as smoothly for him in 2006, as he was 12-14 with a 4.52 ERA, allowing 195 hits in 191 IP. Hernandez was very good in 2007, going 14-7 with a 3.92 ERA, as the team went 21-9 in his starts (plus-$1,020). The Mariners were 88-74 in 2007 and owned MLB's second-best moneyline mark but last year, fell to 61-101, while losing more money than all but one other team in MLB. Hernandez, despite a 3.45 ERA, went just 9-11, as the Mariners fell to 15-16 in his starts (minus-$378). However, Hernandez is off to the best start of his five-year career in 2009, opening 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA in five starts (Seattle has won all five). He may be just 4-8 with a 4.38 ERA in 16 career starts vs the Rangers (was 0-4 with a 4.04 ERA in six starts last season against them) but I'm not bucking him here. The Rangers will counter with Kevin Millwood, who has opened 2009 pitching well, going 2-2 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts. However, he posted a 1.17 ERA in his first three outings of 2009, while "coming back to earth" somewhat in his last two (15 IP / 15 hits / 3.60 ERA). Millwood is 7-9 with 4.72 ERA in 18 career starts vs Seattle but just 0-5 with a 6.07 ERA since last beating them on July 23, 2007. The Mariners are off to a 15-10 start in 2009 (lead AL West by three games), which is quite a turnaround from last year's 101-loss season. If the Mariners weren't coming off a 15-inning game on Sunday, this would have been a bigger play but with Hernandez pitching as well as he has, the Mariners are still worth a small play.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Lee Kostroski

Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have only lost consecutive games once this season and at 17-8 St. Louis has the second best record in the NL. The Cardinals are 10-3 at home this season and 11-5 against right-handed starters. In home games this season the Cardinals own a .349 team average against right-handed pitching and through 25 games St. Louis has out-scored opponents by 36 runs. St. Louis has also received drastically superior pitching to the Phillies and the strong road record for Philadelphia is a bit misleading given the schedule at this point in the year.

Not so long ago Kyle Lohse had trouble finding a team to sign him but he has been one of the top pitchers in the National League so far this season, coming off a great year with St. Louis last year. Lohse briefly pitched for the Phillies in 2007 and he beat his former team both times he faced them last season. Lohse has allowed just seven earned runs through five starts this season and at home he is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in three starts. The St. Louis bullpen has taken a bit of time to sort out but is getting good results right now as opponents are hitting just .230 against Cardinal relievers.

Joe Blanton has not exactly delivered great results since coming over from Philadelphia. His 4-0 record with the Phillies last season was very misleading as he had very mediocre numbers. Blanton can eat up innings but he has been very hittable, a dangerous situation against one of the top hitting teams in baseball. Opposing hitters are hitting .351 against Blanton this season which has led to his 8.41 ERA and he has allowed six home runs in just 20 innings. The Philadelphia bullpen has not been as effective as it was in last year’s championship run and this is a favorable situation for the Cardinals, coming at a very reasonable price given how tough this stadium has been on opposing teams.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

3G-Sports

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals
Play: Over 5.5

Here we go in game 2 of this Stanley Cup Playoffs Series as 3 goals were scored in the first period of game 1 and then several missed chances. The Penguins and Capitals are Over the Total in 10 of 12 in DC and the Capitals ar Over the Total in 7 of 10 in Monday action and our Monday complimentary selection in NHL Playoff action is Pittsburgh- Washington Over the Total as I look for 6 0r 7 goals scored.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Dennis Macklin

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners

King Felix has certain lived up to his phenom hype in 2009 going 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA. Seattle has won all five of his starts and he's been particularly sharp in l3 rocking a 1.29 ERA. Texas counters with Kevin Millwood who is 2-2 and 2.13 in his contract year but the ex-Brave/Phil has never been particularly successful vs the M's going 7-9 and 4.49 LT facing Seattle. The Mariner's improve 12-7 series edge at Safeco behind ace their ace, King Felix.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

MTi Sports

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Prediction: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are 7-0 since June 16, 2006 when Jon Lester starts as a DOG in the first game of a series. The Yankess HAVE to be getting too much play here because of the media hype involving the first time Boston is playing in the new Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox are the ones with the line value.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Dwayne Bryant

SEA (-145) vs TEX

Seattle's Felix Hernandez (4-0, 2.38 ERA) has not allowed a run in consecutive starts. Hernandez's scoreless-innings streak is at 19, the longest by a Mariner since J.J. Putz went 22 innings in 2007.

However, Hernandez is 4-8 with a 4.38 ERA in 16 starts against the Rangers. He also went 0-4 with a 4.04 ERA in six starts last season, walking 20 in 35 2-3 innings.

While Hernandez has struggled of late against Texas, Kevin Millwood (2-2, 2.13) hasn't fared well in recent outings versus Seattle. Millwood is 7-9 with a 4.72 ERA in 18 career starts against the Mariners, but 0-5 with a 6.07 ERA since beating them on July 23, 2007.

Seattle has a solid edge in the bullpen. Seattle's pen owns a 3.06 ERA on the season and a 2.09 ERA at home. Texas' pen sports a 6.14 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the season and those numbers inflate to a 6.75 ERA and 2.04 WHIP on the road.

Hernandez's troubles against Texas kept this play off my premium card, but given his current form and the bullpen edge, I'm comfortable taking Seattle and Hernandez over Texas and Millwood for a half-unit.

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