Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays

DUNKEL

Portland at Houston   
The Blazers are coming off a victory in Game Four (88-77) and look to build on their 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points, while the Rockets are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.  Portland is the underdog pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has Houston favored by only 3 1/2.  Dunkel Pick: Portland (+5).   

Game 555-556: Boston at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 119.670; Chicago 121.152
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 191 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+3); Under

Game 557-558: Orlando at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 117.375; Philadelphia 120.491
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3; 182 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 184
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (+5 1/2); Under

Game 559-560: Portland at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 125.451; Houston 128.974
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 3 1/2; 171
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 5; 179
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+5); Under


MLB

St. Louis at Washington
The Nats look to take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 0-8 in its last 8 games as a road favorite between -110 and -150.  Washington is the underdog pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1 1/2.  Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125).

Game 901-902: St. Louis at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Boggs) 14.677; Washington (Cabrera) 16.014
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 10
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125); Over

Game 903-904: Florida at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 15.171; Cubs (Marshall) 13.660
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+120); N/A

Game 905-906: Arizona at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 15.386; Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.412
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Over

Game 907-908: San Diego at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Geer) 14.741; LA Dodgers (McDonald) 13.277
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+145); Under

Game 909-910: Oakland at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 16.529; Texas (Padilla) 15.361
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 11
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110); Over

Game 911-912: Toronto at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Burres) 16.338; Kansas City (Davies) 14.810
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+130); Under

Game 913-914: Boston at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 15.231; Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.401
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-110); Over

Game 915-916: LA Angels at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Ortega) 15.298; NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.275
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-230); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-230); Over


NHL

Chicago at Vancouver
The Blackhawks open in Vancouver against a Canucks team that is just 2-5 in its last 7 games as a home favorite between -110 and -150.  Chicago is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1/2 a goal.  Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+130).   

Game 3-4: Chicago at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.320; Vancouver 11.937
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+130); Under

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jrtips

BLAZERS vs. ROCKETS

The Blazers won 88-77 on Tuesday night when 7-foot-6 Yao, a seven-time All-Star and Houston's leading scorer at 19.7 points per game took only four shots in the 4th quarter when the Rockets were outscored 24-15. Yao scored 24 points in Game 1 and 21 in Game 4 and the Rockets won so the Rockets will go back to getting the ball inside. Luis Scola is the Rockets' leading scorer in the series, averaging 17.6 points per game because Portland's defense on Yao has opened up mid-range jumpers for the power forward who is shooting 58.5 percent from the field. Scola scored 21 in Game 5, but had only one basket in the fourth quarter. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 25 points for Portland in Game 5 while Brandon Roy had 25. Aldridge scored 27 in the Blazers' other win in the series but has averaged only 13 points in his team's three losses. The Blazers have lost 12 of their last 13 games at the Toyota Center and 10 of their last 11 road playoff games overall while the Rockets have won eight straight home games. After topping 100 points in the first two games, Houston has averaged only 84 points in the last three. The Rockets shot 39.8 percent from the field in Game 4, but still won. The Blazers will try to become just the ninth team in NBA history out of 185 to come back from a 3-1 deficit and win a seven-game playoff series. The Rockets are the veteran team with the dominate force inside that they will take advantage of tonight. They were up four points going intO the fourth quarter in the last game in Portland. The Rockets are at home where they have won eight straight and they realize the sense of urgency. Tonight, they will continue to go to Yao who will either score or get fouled and go to the line where he is an excellent foul shooter. The Rockets will play shuit down defense and put the Blazers away tonight.

TAKE HOUSTON-5

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

LT Profits

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay

The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays opened this season with a three-game series in Fenway Park, and none of those games exceeded a combined nine runs scored. Look for more of the same tonight.

Josh Beckett is coming off of his worst start of the year, as he was absolutely lit up by the New York Yankees for eight earned runs and10 hits in just five innings in a wild 16-11 Red Sox win last Saturday. That outing alone has skewed his numbers, so his current 6.00 ERA and 1.62 WHIP are quite deceptive.

Becket had a 3.79 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP going into that debacle, and we expect him to return to that kind of form here. After all, he has allowed exactly one earned run in five of his eight starts vs. the Rays since the start of last season, and exactly two earned runs in another one. One of those one-run efforts came on Opening Day this year, when he allowed only two hits while recording 10 strikeouts in seven innings.

Very similarly, Matt Garza has had just one bad start out of four starts so far, but that bad outing has skewed his numbers. Garza has a 4.97 ERA and 1.30 WHIP overall, which is not terrible considering that includes his start vs. the White Sox on April 19, where he allowed seven earned runs and 11 baserunners in 5.2 innings. Garza has pitched great vs. Boston, allowing exactly one run in each of his last three starts against them while allowing just 12 hits in 20 innings.

So look for both hurlers to pitch at there normal levels tonight, which is bad news for the two offenses.

Pick: Red Sox / Rays Under 9

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Arizona at Milwaukee

Milwaukee is 36-16 their last 52 home games vs. losing teams and they are 11-1 in the last 12 starts made by Jeff Suppan after allowing two or less runs in their last game. The Brewers are 7-1 their last 8 games overall and they are 4-0 their four home games. Arizona starter Max Scherzer is 1-9 his last ten starts overall. The Diamondbacks are 15-36 their last 51 road games vs. winning teams and they are 2-7 their last 9 games as road underdogs. The D'Backs are 4-11 their last 15 games with the Brewers. PLAY ON MILWAUKEE (Suppan vs. Scherzer)

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tom Stryker

ST. LOUIS with Boggs (-122) over Washington

The Cardinals have posted wins in five of their last six meetings against the Nationals and seven of their last eight against opponents from the National League East. Equally impressive, against sub .400 foes, the Redbirds have been a golden investment cashing 10 of their last 11 battles.

Washington right-hander Daniel Cabrera is finding the going pretty tough in the National League. After five years with the Baltimore Orioles, Cabrera has made four starts this season for Washington and been tagged for 16 runs and 22 hits in 18.1 innings of work. As an underdog, Daniel has dropped four straight.

In their last 77 as a pup, the Nationals are a miserable 23-54 SU and just 4-11 SU in their last 15 at home. The Cardinals are the better team with the better bats and they'll cruise to victory here. Take St. Louis with listed pitcher Boggs.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Angels/Yankees OVER 10 Runs

I expect to see a lot of runs go up on the board tonight with two struggling pitchers on the hill and with the way the ball has been carrying in Yankee Stadium. 12 of 19 games in this series have gone over the last 3 seasons and neither team's bullpen is in as good a shape as it has been the last few years. The Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New York. The Over is 17-8-1 in Yankees last 26 home games vs. a right-handed starter, 4-0 in Angels last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 games as an underdog of +151 to +200, and 21-10-1 in Angels last 32 during game 1 of a series. Lastly, the Yanks are 24-11 Over vs. a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse over the last 3 seasons with the average score totaling 12.9 runs in these games. Bet the Over!

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Vernon Croy

Florida Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs   
Play: Florida Marlins   

The Cubs have been very inconsistent so far this season and the Marlins have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight with Chris Volstad who has an ERA of just 3.00 in 2 career starts against the Cubs. The Marlins are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a dog and they are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road dog. The Marlins are 20-6 in their last 26 games after a win and they are 6-1 in Volstad's last 7 starts as a road dog. The Cubs are 0-6 in Marshall's last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record and they are just 1-11 in Marshall's last 12 starts as a favorite. We are getting solid value with the Marlins tonight on the road so take them as your Free MLB Play for Thursday night.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Dwayne Bryant

BOS (-113) vs TAM

Have to back the hot team over the struggling one. Boston has reeled off 12 wins in 13 games, including 11 straight wins as a favorite. Tampa has lost four of five and coming home doesn't figure to help, as the Rays are just 2-5 at "The Trop."

Josh Beckett got ripped for 8 runs in 5 innings against the Yankees in his last start, so I expect a very focused and effective outing from him tonight. The Red Sox bullpen has also been very solid, sporting a 2.19 ERA on the season.

Matt Garza has pitched well against Boston, but he's coming off back-to-back poor outings and he seems to be a bit off his game right now.

I'll take red-hot Boston with Beckett over struggling Tampa Bay and Garza for a half-unit.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

BOS (-110) vs TAM

The last time the Boston Red Sox visited Tropicana Field, Matt Garza helped the Tampa Bay Rays end their season. The teams are going in opposite directions now as the surging Red Sox meet Garza and the struggling Rays on Thursday night to open a four-game series; look for BOSTON to improve to 9-2 (+6.1 units) against division opponents!

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Ron Raymond

VAN (-150) vs CHI

The biggest challenge for the Blackhawks to go deep in the playoffs will depend on how they play on the road in a hostile environment. Luckily for the Hawks, they have some veterans like Khabibulin and Sammy Pahlsson who've won a Stanley Cup and bring some wisdom to the younger and eager Hawks players. However, I look for Game #1 to be a game where emotions might run wild, as both these teams don't like each other and the thrash talking in the newspaper has already begun, as players like Adam Burish was quoted saying; If somebody wants to get in my face I'm going to get right back in there face, Burish said. I enjoy that confrontation, it doesn't matter who it is, whether it?s their best player or the guy on the bottom of the depth chart.

You can't be saying stuff like this before a series, because veteran guys like Bieksa and Shane O'Brien will remember that kind of stuff in a crease scrum and I can assure you, Burish will be the first player to get a face wash. Look for Game #1 to be a penalty filled game and that means tons of power plays for both teams and I'm going to ride Luongo being more brilliant then Khabibulin in this situation. Canucks are well rested and I look for them to dominate in the second half of tonight's game, as their timing might be off in the first period, but once they score that first one, it could snowball into a 4-2 win for the Canucks.

Here's some interesting numbers backing up the Canucks tonight. When Vancouver is a Home Team during the Month of April and the OVER/UNDER is set at 5.0, the Canucks are 13-4-4 since 1999 in this role. Plus, Vancouver is 11-3 SU this season at home or on the road when the O/U is set at 5.0, which means when you have two good goalies at each end, Luongo wants to outshine his opponent. Why else is the total at 5.0

Play the Canucks.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

Orlando at PHILADELPHIA -5 

First off, don't go crazy putting your kids tuition on the 76ers tonight, as this game will not be the major blowout some are expecting. That being said, the 76ers will win and cover this contest, and here's why:

Obviously the absence of Howard is critical in this match up. For one thing, Howard was dominating the paint, on both ends of the court, in this series. We all know about his exploits on the offensive end, but it was his rebounding and shot blocking abilty on the defensive end that was just as important for the Magic.

Also, all those open shots that Lewis and Turkoglu were used to with Howard on the floor and now gone. Without their manchild center to draw the attention, defenders can now stay at home on the Magic's sharp-shooting forwards, and that's a HUGE defensive advantage for the 76ers. Not only that, but the lane is now wide open for the penetration of such players as Miller and Iguodala.

The injury to Courtney Lee is also a big one. Although he's just a rookie, he was filling an important role on this Orlando team, scoring 15+ points or more in 3 of the 5 games they've played this series. He was the answer when the rest of the Magic went cold, and without him, they lose another offensive option.

Then of course, there's the win or go home factor. At first glance, one might be concerned about the 76ers taking their foot off the gas because of the absence of Howard and Lee, but not when they're playing in an elimination game! Look for the 76ers to remain sharp, attacking early and often against a now vulnerable Magic defense. In the end, the 76ers have too much to lose not to bring their "A" game tonight, and with their best player on the bench in a suit, it wouldn't surprise me if the Magic come out flat, and already looking ahead to Game 7 at home.

Take Philadelphia over Orlando in Game 6 of this Eastern Conference Playoffs series.

2♦ PHILADELPHIA

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION    ;D


(559) Portland Trailblazers +5


The Blazers came very close to pulling off a win in game three and
four in Houston and I think they might get that win in this game. The
pressure will be on the Rockets as they once again try to get out of
the first round of the playoffs. This one should be close all the way.
Take the points.


2009 Free Selections Record  64-54  (54.2%)


====================================================


Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports   ;D
254 - 164 run  60 %

Thursday  Bost  Red Sox

=====================================================

Free Selection from Totals4U   ;D
Thursday's free selection: St. Louis/Washington under 10

=====================================================


8)

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

(Power Angle Play)

Toronto +120 over KANSAS CITY

The Blue Jays are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 4 of a series and 38-14 in their last 52 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game, while the Royals are 14-31 in their last 45 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and 1-5 in Davies' last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.  After Posting a 12.47 ERA in his  first start I belive that Brian Burres will bounce back with a strong effort today. He will be facing a KC squad that is 22nd in scoring at 4.2 rpg and 25th in hitting at .247.  The Royals also score just 4.4 rpg at home and in their 8 day games they have hit just .200 and have scored just 3 rpg. toronto has had no such hitting problems as they are 4th in scoring (5.9 rpg) and 1st in hitting (.290), plus they average 6.5 rpg on the road and 6.1 rpg vs righty starters. That Toronto offense will take aim at a struggling Kyle Davies, who is 1-1 with a high 6.88 ERA in his slast 3 starts, plus he is 1-1 with an 8.18 ERA at home. The Jays offense will win this one as I just don't see KC putting up enough runs to outscore them. 

POWER ANGLE For This Play--- Since June 22nd 2008 The Blue Jays are a sparkling 25-3 after allowing 6+ runs.


1 UNIT PLAY

Oakland/ Texas Under 11

The Under is 26-11 in Athletics last 37 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and  6-1 in Bradens last 7 starts as a road underdog, while the Under is 8-1 in Padillas last 9 starts with the total set at 11.0 or higher. You won't see this that often, me taking an Under in a Rangers home game, but Padilla is due for a good game and  6 of his last 7 home starts with teh total of 11 or higher have gone under the total. Dallas Braden has been pitching well this year as he owns a 2.52 ERA overall, including a 1.89 ERA in his last 3 starts. His starts have averaged just 5.3 rpg overall and a mere 2 rpg in his 2 road starts. No more than 9 in this one.   

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Oakland at Texas
Pick: Texas -120

The Athletics are 7-11 on the season including 3-6 on the road, yet they are nearly even money here? Yes they have the pitching advantage but the Rangers have been pounding left-hand pitching to the tune of 9.2 runs per game on the season and the A's offense will be hard pressed to keep up. Vicente Padilla has not gotten off to a big start for the Rangers, but he does own a career 5-1 mark against the A's. And this Oakland offense is producing only four runs per game against right-hand pitching. Texas is 27-17 the past two seasons vs. poor power teams (those averaging under .75 HRs per game). With Padilla on the mound during that span, the Rangers are 8-1 vs such teams! Oakland is just 39-54 in expected close games (line of -125 to +125) over the past two seasons. That includes a 14-28 mark on the road in those games.  I'll back the Rangers on the moneyline in this one.

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