Tuesday Service Plays

Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Jimmy Boyd

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Toronto Blue Jays     

After scoring just 1 run in last night's defeat, expect the Blue Jays, who are averaging 6.7 runs per game on the road this season, to bounce back strong. They are facing Gil Meche, who is being severely overvalued when you consider that he is 4-8 against the money line with an ERA of 4.97 and a WHIP of 1.547 when starting against the Jays. Plus, he is going head-to-head with Scott Richmond, who is 2-0 with an ERA of just 3.31 this season. Toronto is 20-9 against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average score of 5.5 to 3.9 in these spots. The Blue Jays are 11-4 in their last 15 during game 2 of a series and 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Bet the Blue Jays.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Tony Karpinski

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Orlando    
Play:Philadelphia 76ers +8.5

The Philadelphia 76ers has covered the spread in all four games in this series, and done so rather easily, including pulling off two outright upsets as an underdog. On top of that, the underdog has covered in 27 of the last 38 meetings between these teams, while Philly is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Orlando. Theo Ratlif has stepped up defensively and is a presense in the middle.

Orlando fits all series long and I don’t see it changing tonight. The reason this series is tied 2-2 despite the fact the Magic finished with 18 more regular-season wins than Philadelphia? For one thing, the Sixers have been playing tough, hard, smart basketball and their coach hasn’t been a deterrent. On the other hand, Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy has indeed looked like – as Shaquille O”Neal dubbed him two months ago – the “Master of Panic,” and his troops have blown really big leads in all four games. Lets back the underdog and the 76ers tonight as your freebie.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Dwayne Bryant

POR / HOU Over 182

The last two games in this series have gone UNDER the total, but those games were in Houston. Tonight, the scene switches back to Portland, where the first two games of this series went OVER the total.
In Game 4, the teams combined to shoot just 42.4% from the floor -- the lowest percentage of the series -- and they still managed 177 points. In Games 1 and 2 in Portland, the teams combined to shoot 49.8% from the floor.The Over is 4-1 in the Rockets' last 5 playoff games as an underdog. The Over is also 6-1 in the Trail Blazers' last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. From a series perspective, the Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Portland.I'll take Houston and Portland OVER 182 for a half-unit.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Rocketman

Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee 
Play: Milwaukee

Milwaukee comes in winners of 5 of their last 6 games overall.  Milwaukee is scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this year.  Dave Bush is 1-0 with a 3.15 ERA in all starts this year.  Milwaukee is 25-7 overall vs Pittsburgh the past 3 years including an AMAZING 18-1 at home vs Pittsburgh the past 3 seasons.  Maholm is only 2-5 overall vs Milwaukee since 1997.  Brewers are 16-4 in Bushs last 20 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Brewers are 4-0 in Bushs last 4 home starts vs. Pirates.  Pirates are 0-7 in Maholms last 7 starts vs. Brewers.  We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee tonight! 

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Houston at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -120

We have very good pitching matchup in Cincinnati tonight, featuring Wandy Rodriguez vs. Aaron Harang. Rodriguez is off to his best start ever with a 1.89 ERA entering the contest, but he has just one win to show for his efforts. Aaron Harang, after an injury plagued '08, is back in form and has pitched to a 2.05 ERA in his four starts. The key here is the Astros' offense that has struggled mightily against right-hand pitching. The Astros are just 4-10 against them, and the reason is that their offense is averaging just 3.1 runs per game against righties. That makes it even tougher, as Harang is at the top of his game right now, so I'll go with the Reds here.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Craig Trapp

St Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves    
Play: St Louis Cardinals   

Tough loss yesterday for handicapper Craig Trapp with the Dodgers giving up a late lead. Craig is going to bounce back today with his free play! Today's winning free play will in the St. Louis and Atlanta game. Lets take a look at the records and trends:

Records

St Louis Cardinals 14-6 Lohse 3-0 (2.42 ERA)

Atlanta Braves 9-10 Reyes 0-1 (7.94 ERA)

Betting Trends

-STL are 13-3 in their last 16 games as a favorite.

-ATL are 4-9 in their last 13 overall.

-STL are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

-Cardinals are 6-1 in Lohses last 7 starts.

Atlanta is really struggling lately and St. Louis is playing some of the best baseball in all of the major leagues. Manger Tony Larussa has once again got his team to play way above there heads and now they believe they can win every day. Lohse has been superb this season a minor knee injury is the only reason this spread is not higher. But Lohse has said it will not keep him from being his normal great self. Reyes has been getting shelled all year and with some of the best hitters on STL this one could get ugly. NOT CLOSE HERE!! SCORE STL 9 - ATL 3

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics
PICK: Chicago Bulls +8

The quick, knee-jerk reaction here is to back the Celtics. After all, they let one get away in Chicago as they lost in double-overtime against the Bulls. However, the issue with that is that both teams have had trouble creating separation in this series. Only one of the four games in this series has not been tight and that was a big win in Game Three for Boston.

We just don't see the Celtics as being able to repeat such a big win. The Bulls already responded to that game with a win. They also have confidence here in Boston because they already won one game here and the Bulls absolutely gave the Celtics all they could handle in the other game. In other words, don't count out on the Bulls here and we feel the Celtics will have a fierce battle just to win this...let alone to cover it! Consider a small play on Chicago plus the points.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Dave Price

1 Unit on LA Angels -114

I'll back the Halos tonight behind southpaw sensation Joe Saunders. Saunders is 26-10 against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons and has not been phased by the road where he is 13-4 against the money line over the last 2 seasons. Lastly, the guy has been deadly with plenty of rest at 21-8 against the money line his last 29 when working on 5 or 6 days rest. With the way the O's struggles against southpaws - just 10-27 in their last 37 home games vs. a left-handed starter - I'll back Saunders and the Angels tonight.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds -120

Harang gets the edge over Rodriguez tonight, who has struggled throughout his career when pitching away from home. Plus, the Reds are one of the better hitting teams in the bigs against southpaw starters. The Astros are only 5-17 in Rodriguez's last 22 road starts vs. a team with a winning record and the Reds are 13-5 in their last 18 games vs. a left-handed starter. And here's the clincher: Plays against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.70) (NL), with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are 112-33 the last 5 seasons. We'll take this 77.2% Money Line System to the bank.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Greg Shaker

Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5

Two very good throwers here for this one, an UNDER Venue, and a light hitting KC Squad. Both Pens performing well also and both teams in their worst hitting posture facing the righty. Meche is no longer the Ace of this Royal Staff with Greike performing so well, but he wants to be and the competition has been a positive factor for him. The Blue Jays hot start has made them one of the leagues biggest April surprises, but they have dropped two of their last three, falling percentage points behind Boston for the AL East lead. Toronto managed two hits in Monday night's 7-1 loss, going 1 for 7 with men in scoring position. The team is batting .204 without a home run in its last three contests, scoring seven runs over that span. They have lost that magic at the plate but they do have some magic on the mound tonight with this Richmond Kid who is not so much a kid at age 29. The right-hander earned a second consecutive win after allowing two runs in six innings of a 5-2 win over Texas on Thursday, striking out eight. One of these starters is likely to put together a quality performance and that is probably all we are going to need.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Ron Raymond

NYR (+210) vs WAS

We have a saying in the Sports Handicapping business, its known as the Golden Rule of Sports betting; when everybody in the world is on one side, go the other way! Some call it the contrarian play or the bet against the public pick, but I call it the SUPER VALUE of the night!  Lets face it, the Rangers have all the odds stacked against them here this evening, but they have one of the most energetic coaches in the game today in John Tortorella and they have the most important factor in this game, Henrik Lundqvist. Varlamov has yet to be tested in this series and the NY Rangers dont have the pressure of the home crowd to please, all they need to do is get super goaltending and let the Washington Capital self destruct on home ice like they did in Game #1 and #2. The Rangers have never lost a series after winning 3 of the first 4 games of a series and the Capitals didnt have Brashear in the line up in Game #1 and #2 of the series and thats huge when you look down the bench and your team body guard is in the press box. I believe the pressure is all the Capitals this evening and the Rangers will play this underdog role to a T and shock the hockey world in an upset special.

Stat of the Game: When NY RANGERS team played as a Road team - Vs Southeast opponent - After a conference game - Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog; The Rangers are 7-3 (70%) in this role since 1999.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Michael Cannon

Houston +5' at PORTLAND 

I’m on a 9-3-1 run with my last 13 free plays after the 2-0 sweep last night with the Astros and the Hawks outright!

Take the points with the Rockets tonight on the road over the Trail Blazers.

This series has been pretty tight, despite the Rockets holding a 3-1 lead.  I expect more of the same tonight and Houston’s experience is going to play a major factor here.

Portland is supremely talented, but young.  That youth is contributing to the mistakes that have the Trailblazers in this 3-1 hole.

Greg Oden may wind up being a dominant big man in this game, but he looks clueless right now going up against Yao Ming.

We don’t need the outright win here to grab the cash, but the points should be plenty to do the trick.

Take Houston plus the points as they stay within the number.

3&#9830; HOUSTON


Florida at NY METS -125 

Take the Mets for the home win tonight over the Marlins.

I know New York hasn’t been all that consistent right out of the gate, but the Marlins are reeling right now and the Mets should be able to take advantage of that tonight.

Livan Hernandez will get the start for the Mets and he’s been tough on Florida recently.  The right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA in his last three starts against the Marlins.

Florida will counter with Ricky Nolasco, who is just 1-2 with a 6.86 ERA on the year.  The right-hander has also struggled against the Mets in his career, going 2-6 with a 6.36 ERA in 12 games against them.

Jose Reyes and David Wright are a combined 25-for-57 (.439) against Nolasco, with three homeruns apiece.

Take the Mets as they grab the home win.

3&#9830; NY METS

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

Boston at CLEVELAND -110

The line on this contest immediately jumps out at me, as we find the red-hot Red Sox at a bargain price in Cleveland. Sorry Boston-backers, but I'm not buying it. If oddsmakers were really confident the Red Sox streak was going to continue tonight, then we'd be paying a premium. That is not the case, and it all starts with the pitching match-up.

While Brad Penny's last start was solid, its hard to forget how he got rocked by the Orioles in the start prior, allowing eight runs in just three innings. Not only that, but his 2-0 record isn't nearly as indicative as his 7.80 ERA on the season. Let's also not forget, he was atrocious on the road last season, going 3-4 with an ugly 7.12 ERA in nine away games as a member of the Dodgers.

While the Indians' Anthony Reyes is issuing far too many walks for my liking, truth be told, he's been effective overall, going 1-0 with a 4.76 ERA. He allowed two runs over six innings to the Royals last Thursday, and if he can get his command under control, he can very well outpitch Penny in this one.

True, the Indians offense got stifled by Tim Wakefield Monday, yet for all of the Tribe's issues at the plate, they're averaging 4.8 runs per game against righties thus far this season. The Red Sox meanwhile, are averaging just 3.5 runs per game vs righties on the road. True, its still early on, and we can expect that to even out eventually, but the fact remains if the guys in Vegas thought this was going to be as easy as the public thinks its going to be, then we'd be paying a premium.

Bottom line, look for Penny's road woes to re-emerge in this contest, as the Indians bring out the bats Tuesday at home. Also, Reyes has been solid despite the issues with his command, and I suspect we see him settle down nicely in this one, after looking good against the Royals in his last outing.

The Red Sox winning streak ends with a thud tonight at Progressive Field.

2&#9830; CLEVELAND


Houston +5' at PORTLAND 

I'll admit, its tempting to back the Blazers at the Rose Garden, with their back against the wall no less, in this Game 5 showdown. However, even if they do win, I just don't see them creating enough separation to cover the number in this contest, plain and simple.

Toss out the Rockets Game 1 blowout win, and the rest of this series has been razor close, with margins of 4, 3, and 1 point(s) respectively. Needless to say, these two teams match up particularly well, with both teams relying on defense and their size in the frontcourt to win games. The difference is the more veteran Rockets simply do it better than Portland, and that's why they're up 3-1 in this series.

Yao Ming has demonstrated why he's one of the best and smartest centers in the NBA. He's dominated the paint on defense, and almost always makes the right play (pass or shoot) when anchoring the Rockets offense on the other end! Despite all their size, the Blazers do not have an answer for Yao. Also, the emergence of Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola have given Houston two other options to go along with Yao and Artest.

On the flip side, I love what I've seen from Brandon Roy, but the rest of this Blazers roster has been inconsistent at best, which is to be expected from such a young team. Aldridge was a beast all season, but has been wildly inconsistent in this series, and if he struggles again, the Blazers will lose this game outright.

Bottom line, these two teams are so evenly matched, that taking the points is just too much of a value to pass up in this case. Rockets have proven they can beat the Blazers at the Rose Garden, not to mention one has to wonder how such a young team will respond in this elimination game. Too many questions left to be answered by the Blazers... Give me the more veteran Rockets with Yao dominating the paint once again tonight.

Take Houston plus the points over Portland in Game 5 of this Western Conference Playoffs series.

3&#9830; HOUSTON

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

JrTips

ROCKETS vs. BLAZERS

The Blazers are behind 3-1 in the playoff series with the Rockets and face elimination tonight at home. Yao had 21 points and 12 rebounds in an 89-88 victory over the Blazers on Sunday night and was nearly unstoppable. Portland hurt themselves by giving up 10 offensive rebounds in the final quarter. Portland has had trouble matching up with Yao the whole series but had much more success when the Blazers had Przybilla front the 7-foot-6 center. Yao is averaging 15.8 points and 10.5 rebounds through the first four games and Luis Scola leads the Rockets with an average of 16.8 points and 7.5 rebounds. The Blazers were 34-7 at the Rose Garden during the regular season. All-Star Brandon Roy had 31 points in Game 4 and is averaging 28.3 in the series while teammate LaMarcus Aldridge is averaging 16.5 points and 8.3 rebounds. The Rose Garden arguably presents the toughest home court advantage in the NBA and the Blazers have the best player on the court in Brandon Roy. The Blazers are in a must win situation against a team they can beat. The Blazers will start fast and their home court advantage will give them the edge they need to get the win. They win this game going away and put the Houston starters on the bench in the fourth quarter.TAKE PORTLAND-5 1/2

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