Wednesday Service Plays

Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Nick Parsons

Boston Bruins @ Montreal Canadiens +140

While the Boston Bruins talked about how tough it is to get the fourth win in a best-of-seven playoff series, the Montreal Canadiens contemplated their bleak reality of being down to the final chance to get their first; and I expect them to get that elusive victory this evening! A desperate home team offers us tremendous value here as I expect the CANADIENS to improve to 12-7 (+3.1 units) when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent!

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Lee Kostroski

Florida Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Under

The first two meetings in this series have gone ‘under’ the total and although the Marlins have the best record in baseball their offensive statistics may be a bit inflated having faced Washington’s marginal pitching staff six times. In games against other teams the Marlins are averaging just 4.2 runs per game and that includes a high scoring series against the Braves. The ‘under’ has actually hit in six of the last nine Florida games and the lineup has cooled off with the team average down to only .257 and much worse numbers against left-handed pitching including a poor .213 average against southpaws in road games.

Pittsburgh has the best overall pitching numbers in the National League with just a 3.00 ERA while opponents are hitting just .239. The Pirates have received great work from the bullpen with zero blown save opportunities and Paul Maholm might be the early favorite for the Cy Young with three high quality performances in helping lead the Pirates back to respectability so far in 2009. Maholm has allowed only two earned runs in over 20 innings pitched and opposing batters are hitting only .284 against him. This is following up a strong finish to the 2008 season and Maholm is moving towards an elite level even though he does not post great strikeout numbers.

Ricky Nolasco has not lived up to his outstanding second half of the season in 2008 so far this season but he rarely walks batters and he has given up progressively fewer runs in this three starts this season. Although Pittsburgh is a surprise to have a winning record at this point in the season the Pirates have had success through pitching and not offense as they are averaging just 4.5 runs per game. Florida’s bullpen has the second lowest ERA in the NL and the Pirates will be without one of the key players in their lineup as Ryan Doumit has hit the DL. Pittsburgh has been held to three or fewer runs in five of the last seven games and this should be a true pitcher’s duel. Umpire Jim Joyce should also help the cause as the three games he has been behind the plate have averaged less than seven runs.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

LT Profits

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

The first two games of this series between the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals have both gone Under, and we look for more of the same this evening.

Neither team has hit particularly well in this series, with the Nationals scoring seven runs and the Braves managing just five runs over the two games, and both of the starting pitchers tonight are more than capable enough to take advantage.

Jair Jurrjens was one of the most pleasant surprises in baseball for the Braves last season, and he has given no indication so far this season that last year was a fluke. He allowed three earned runs in his first start and then followed that up by allowing only one run and four hits with seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings in his last start on Friday. He has also allowed three earned runs or less in four of his five starts vs. Washington in his brief career.

Now John Lannan struggled for the Nationals in his first two starts after being designated the ace this season by taking the Opening Day start, but that all changed in his home start of the year on Friday. He tossed a gem that night, allowing just one run and three hits with eight strikeouts in 6.1 innings vs. the red-hot Florida Marlins before watching his bullpen blow the lead in the ninth. That pen has looked better this series thanks to some swift personnel moves.

Look for the pitchers to dominate again tonight, just like they have the last two games.

Pick: Braves/Nationals Under 8.5

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees
Prediction: Over

Concerns about the weather in the Bronx today kept this off of my "guaranteed pick" listing. However, there is good value here with the over in this one and, as long as they can get the game in (if the rain remains light or stays out of the area), this one should fly over the total. The ball has been carrying very well in the new Yankee Stadium and even C.C. Sabathia got roughed up in his first start here. Also, he's opposed by the A's Brett Anderson in this one and there is simply no reason to expect much success for either hurler in this one. Sabathia already got rocked here and Anderson is just 21 years old and now facing a tough starting assignment in the Bronx. Consider a small play on OVER the total in the New York Yankees game on Wednesday afternoon. Don't miss all my HUGE guaranteed picks for Wednesday, off a BIG 3-0 SWEEP in baseball Tuesday!

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Houston Astros -115

The Astros ended the Dodgers 8-game winning streak yesterday and I like the 'stros to hand LA another loss tonight behind the right arm of ace Roy Oswalt. Oswalt is still looking for his first win and that will have him extremely focused here. The first thing to note is that the Dodgers are 0-9 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The next thing to note is that the Astros are 10-1 in Oswalt's last 11 starts vs. the National League West and 55-20 in his last 75 home starts. The Astros are also 5-2 in Oswalt's last 7 starts vs. the Dodgers. The 'stros have the edge on the hill tonight and I like their bats as well. This is a streaky offense and when they get it rolling they keep it rolling. In fact, Houston is 15-4 against the money line after scoring 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Bet the 'stros.

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Wunderdog

Philadelphia at Orlando
Pick: Orlando -11

The Orlando Magic have to be chapped at what they did in game one at home, as they allowed an 18-point lead to evaporate and ended up on the losing end. You know the resolve will be much greater in this one. What we saw was a team that dominated the Sixers, but thought they had them buried, allowed them back in the game, and ultimately lost. The Sixers have not been a good road team all season and even with the game one win, they are just 4-12 ATS vs. teams with a win perctage of .700 or higher. They are also 10-22 ATS vs. teams that average 100+ points per game. The Magic have made double-digit wins at home the norm. The Magic are 21-6 the past two seasons revenging a home loss. This season when a team beat them and put up 100+ on the Magic, Orlando is 13-2 ATS in the revenge game. Blowing that lead was a fluke. This time the Magic finish the job, so I'm going with Orlando to send a loud message here.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jack Jones

Altanta Braves -123 over Washington Nationals

I'll take the Braves today to avoid the sweep against the Nationals. Jair Jurrjens takes the mound today after having given up just 13 hits and 4 ER in his 17.7 innings of work this year, and was an excellent pitcher on the road in 2008. John Lannan has made one good start, but was shelled for 9 hits and 4 runs in six innings against Atlanta a couple weeks ago. He was 4-9 with a 4.87 ERA at home last year and I think he gets hammered by the Braves today.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Yankee Capper

NHL
Boston/Montreal Over 5.5

NBA
New Orleans/Denver Over 196.5

MLB
Florida/Pittsburgh Under 8

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Kansas City Royals +185

The Tribe is being overvalued today with Lee on the mound as he has not looked like a Cy Young Award winning early on. While Lee has a solid career mark against the Royals much of that has to do with him being on superior teams as his 4.47 ERA against them is nothing to write home about. But Bannister is 3-1 when starting against Cleveland with an ERA of 1.91 and a WHIP of 0.818. Now that's domination and he'll be determined to pitch well in his first start of the season to prove that he is worthy of pitching in the rotation. Bannister is 10-3 against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Royals are 18-5 in their last 23 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 11-4 in their last 15 games as a road underdog. Take the Royals.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Ben Burns

Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins
Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins worked hard to earn home ice advantage for this series while the Flyers squandered their chance to do so. Now, the Penguins can close things out at home and I expect them to make the most of their opportunity. The Pens are more talented and they've been the better team this series. Consider Pittsburgh.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Dennis Macklin

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Atlanta Braves

Many of the MLB preview magazines predicted a breakout year for the Braves Jair Jurjjens. Through three starts, 2-1 and 2.55, he's done nothing to prove them wrong. The nasty Nats have won two straight after 1-10 start but can't recommend with (0-2, 6.44) John Lannan who was drilled by the Bravos on the 11th giving up five earned on nine hits/three walks effort at Hotlanta. Look for Braves to get to Lannan early and often in easy Atlanta win.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Rob Homyak

5 UNITS on Chicago Cubs

The Reds will pin their hopes on the pitching of righthander Johnny Cueto in this game. Cueto has a 0-1 record and a 4.22 ERA this season.

Meanwhile, it'll be Ted Lilly who starts for the Cubs. Lefthander Lilly is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA so far this season.

Aramis Ramirez went 3-for-5 with three runs batted in, as the Cubs handled the Reds 7-2 on Tuesday night.

Chicago cashed as -230 home favorites as the game played over the 8-run total posted by oddsmakers.

Micah Hoffpauir smacked a solo shot and had two RBIs for the Cubs, while Rich Harden gave up two runs over six innings to get the win for Chicago.

Jay Bruce was 2-for-4 with a homer and two RBIs for Cincinnati, as Micah Owings allowed two earned runs over 4 2-3 innings to take the loss for the Reds.

After two days off because of a rainout and a scheduled off day, Chicago returned to the field Tuesday and pounded out a 7-2 victory, its third consecutive win. The Cubs carry hot streaks of 6-2 overall (all as a favorite), 58-27 at home (4-2 this year), 5-1 against the N.L. Central and 12-5 on Wednesday.

The Reds have lost six of their last seven on Wednesday. The home team has won 12 of the last 17 clashes.

Cueto faced the Cubs four times in his rookie season last year, going 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA, including 0-2 with a 3.29 ERA in two games at Wrigley Field. The Reds have lost 12 of Cueto?s last 17 road starts and eight of his last 11 against Central division rivals.

Chicago is unbeaten in Lilly?s last six starts overall, and with Ted Lilly the Cubs are of 22-8 overall, 20-8 at home, 12-2 against winning teams, 5-0 as a favorite and 5-0 versus the N.L. Central.

LILLY is 12-2 (+10.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Chicago Cubs are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games

Umpire Trends - Lance Barksdale

Home team is 5-0 in Barksdales last 5 games behind home plate.

Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 games with Barksdale behind home plate.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Tommy the Swami

Orlando - 10 -120   
                     
Since the 1999-00 season, Playoff teams Off a SU Dog Win are 25-48 ..66% play against for 20 seasons Play Against away dogs of 6(+) points in the first roundif they won Game 1 as dogs of 5 (+) points. 67% Play AGAINST - Any NBA Round 1 Game 2 team with the Bulss WL% that beat the pointspread by 10(+) pts in Gm1.Record since 1990-91 - 34-17 ATS  67% When a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.they are 41-22-1. If they were upset at home and return home they improve to 33-14-1. 

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