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Tuesday Service Plays

Re: Tuesday Service Plays

VEGAS EXPERTS

Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers

Well it looks like the same situation here. Cleveland is double digit chalk once again at home. On Saturday, they were able to dominate from tip to sounding buzzer in a 102-84 victory. Detroit does not fare well when coming off a loss against a division opponent as they are 0-9 ATS and just 3-11 ATS revenging a road loss. The Cavaliers on the flip side are a fantastic 8-1 ATS after winning three straight games ATS. Take the chalk here once again and expect the same outcome.

Play on: Cleveland

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Alex Smart

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

Matt Cain tonights starting pitcher for the the San Fransisco Giants, continues to show the pundits he has a bright future in this league. The hard throwing right hander is 1-0 on the season along with a very stingy 2.08 ERA, allowing just 3 runs in 13 innings of work. The native of Alabama , in 15 career starts vs the Padres has garnered a impressive looking 2.92 ERA , while allowing the Fathers batters to hit a lowly .197 during that span. What is troubling for the hurler, is his team continues to give him very little help offensively. That might be a problem for him, but for us backing the under , its a promising trend.

Meanwhile, his pitching opponent from the Padres Jake Peavy (2-1,3.98 ERA) is the type of hurler that can shut down offenses when he is in a groove. With this being his fourth start of the season, I can see the ace of the Padres staff coming up with his best effort of the season, which is not a good omen for a Giants offense that is hitting just .234 on the season vs right handers like Peavy. It must be noted that back in 2007 Jake , was 2-0 along with a tight 1.38 ERA here in SF.

Im betting on two top tier pitchers to go deep today, against two less than cohesive offenses.

Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 9-3 in Peavys last 12 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. These teams have gone under in 4 of their L/5 meetings here San Francisco.

Play UNDER

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LT Profits

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros

The Los Angeles Dodgers have one of the hottest offenses in baseball, and while the Houston Astros have been struggling, the Dodgers may carry this Over by teeing off on Russ Ortiz.

Los Angeles has a team batting average of .302 in the early going while averaging a potent 6.31 runs per game. They have had little variance against right-handers (.301) and left-handers (.310), and the scary part is that Manny Ramirez has not even started being Manny yet. The Dodgers have scored 14 and nine runs in their last two games respectively.

This makes for a terrible matchup for Ortiz, who did not even pitch in the Major Leagues last season. Sure, his numbers looked decent in his first Astros start, as he allowed three earned runs and five hits. However, that was over just 4.2 innings as he labored over 99 pitches vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates. This offense he is facing here obviously represents a major step up in class.

Now the Astros have been brutal offensively for the most part, but they may not have to do much to push this game Over if the Dodgers score about seven runs vs. Ortiz and a mediocre Houston bullpen that sports a very mediocre 4.42 ERA, which seems very doable. Besides, while LA starter Clayton Kershaw has looked great so far this year, the Astros did manage three runs and six hits off of him in just 5.2 innings last season.

The Astros may only need to score three runs or so tonight to ensure that this game reaches a total of double digits.

Pick: Dodgers/Astros Over 9

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Nelly

Washington + over Atlanta

Washington has a miserable record but the Nationals have won two of the last five games and two losses came in extra innings. The Braves swept a home series against Washington but every game was extremely close and could have gone either way. Washington got the first step of revenge with a win last night over Atlanta's ace and this could be a favorable situation for another win. The home team has won nine of the last eleven in this series and Washington has won seven in a row at home against Atlanta. Last season Washington won five times in Atlanta but the Braves won just once in D.C. The Braves have now dropped six of the last seven games after a promising start to the year and Atlanta has been held to two or fewer runs in five of those seven games as the offense has disappeared. Shairon Martis has not lost in his two starts for Washington this season as he has only allowed five runs and the Nationals bullpen has posted superior numbers to Atlanta. Despite the poor record, Washington has the fourth best batting average in baseball at .288 and the Nats also draw a lot of walks. Look for Washington's record to improve as they have faced a lot of early season road games and have been a much better team at home.

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Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -105

The Cardinals have come out of the gate strong to start the season and I'll back them tonight. St. Louis will be out for blood as it returns home after back-to-back road losses to division rival Chicago and it also has the benefit of 3 day's rest. The Mets Oliver Perez is fade material right now as he brings in an ERA of 7.84 and looked awful in his only road start this season. I call this one the offensive explosion system as plays on home teams (ST LOUIS) - very good offensive team - scoring >=5.3 runs/game on the season (NL), after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less are 46-15 since 1997. In addition, the Mets are only 2-11 against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .280 or better over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Red Birds tonight.

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Tom Stryker

SAN DIEGO with Peavy (-117) over San Francisco

San Francisco will counter with right-hander Matt Cain. In his last 10 starts against the Padres, Cain is winless posting a dismal 0-5 record with a 3.59 ERA. Also, with Matt on the mound and the Giants priced as an underdog, San Francisco has dropped 23 of its last 31. Even worse, with No. 18 on the hill and Frisco battling an NL West foe, the Giants have lost 24 of their last 32.San Diego is playing solid baseball right now and has won eight of their last 10. With its ace on the bump, the Padres will continue to roll. Take San Diego with listed pitcher Peavy.

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Dwayne Bryant

DET (-110) vs ANA

The Tigers have a few edges in this one. First, they have momentum. Detroit has won two straight, while LA has lost three straight. LA will also be without slugger Vladimir Guerrero, who is out with a pectoral injury.

Detroit is the better hitting team. The Tigers are batting .284 and scoring 7.1 rpg vs. righty starters this season, while LA is hitting .261 and scoring 4.6 rpg in the same role.

The biggest advantage may be in the bullpen. Detroit's pen owns a solid 3.51 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Angels' pen has been horrible, sporting a massive 8.31 ERA and 1.93 WHIP.

Armando Galarraga has turned in two strong outings to start 2009. He scattered four hits with five strikeouts in 6 1-3 innings of a 9-0 win over Chicago on Wednesday. That came five days after he starred in Detroit's home opener, allowing one run and five hits while fanning eight in a 15-2 win over the Rangers.

"He was tremendous," Tigers manager Jim Leyland said after the victory over the White Sox. "He had late life on his pitches. It was darting and moving late in the strike zone, just at the right time."

Galarraga went 1-0 with a 1.88 ERA in two starts against the Angels last season. He was impressive in winning his only career start at Anaheim on 5/28/08, giving up two runs and four hits in 8 1-3 innings of a 6-2 victory.

LA's Jered Weaver is looking to rebound from a rough outing. The right-hander gave up four runs and 10 hits in five innings of an 11-3 loss at Seattle on Wednesday. That performance was in stark contrast to his season debut on April 10, when he allowed one unearned run and four hits with eight strikeouts in a 6-3 win against Boston. Weaver is 2-1 with a sky-high 8.78 ERA in three career starts against Detroit.

LA is still an emotional mess due to the tragic death of pitcher Nick Adenhart two weeks ago and this isn't a good matchup for them.

I'll take Detroit with Galarraga over LA and Weaver for a half-unit.

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Vegasflyer Sports
Mike Hillin


Free play
Seattle Mariners-even

rec 8-7 streak L3

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Rocketman

Houston @ Portland 
Play: Portland -6

Both teams have identical 54-29 records coming into this one tonight.  Houston is 1-8 ATS this year after an upset win as an underdog.  Portland is 8-2 ATS this year after an upset loss as a favorite.  Portland is 34-8 SU at home this year where they are beating opponents by almost 10 points per game.  Portland will get some major revenge tonight after getting crushed in Game 1.  We'll recommend a small play on Portland!

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Evan Altemus

Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -11

Detroit is dealing with an aging and banged up line-up, and they were crushed by Cleveland in Game 1.  The Cavaliers are out to make a statement in this series and the rest of the Eastern Conference.  Cleveland has the strongest home court advantage of any team in the NBA, evident once again in Game 1.  Detroit did make a small rally in the 2nd half, but Cleveland crushed them once they regained focus.  I feel that game was more demoralizing to the Pistons than motivating.  They now have confirmed in their minds that Cleveland is the better team.  Lebron James is very motivated, and he has the rest of his team focused.  Therefore I don’t expect a letdown performance in Game 2.  In addition, Detroit had absolutely no answer for James, which opened up opportunities for the rest of his teammates.  Look for Cleveland to get around a 20 point win.

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John Ryan

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants    

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on San Francisco as they host San Diego. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 32-7 making 24.6 units since 1997. Play on home teams that are good fielding team averaging <=0.6 errors/game on the season, after a combined score of 4 runs or less 3 straight games. SD is just 7-15 (-11.6 Units) against the money line versus a NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Take San Francisco.

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Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Brewers/Phillies OVER 10

Great Over situation with two teams who swing stout sticks facing a pair of struggling pitchers. The Over is 4-0-2 in Parra's last 6 starts as an underdog, 5-0-1 in Parra's last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game, and 10-1-1 in Parra's last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Over is 7-1-1 in Phillies last 9 overall, 7-1-1 in Phillies last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 9-2 in Moyer's last 11 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Bet the Over.

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Dave Price

1 Unit on SF Giants +113

The Giants' Matt Cain has outshined Peavy in the early going and I'll back Cain at home tonight. After getting swept by San Diego earlier this season, the Giants will be looking to return the favor in this series. San Diego is 1-12 against the money line in road games when playing on Tuesday over the last 2 seasons. The Padres are 1-9 in their last 10 games following an off day and 0-4 in their last 4 meetings in San Francisco. The Padres don't often support Peavy well and I'll take the Giants at home in this revenge spot.

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