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SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Saturday NBA Analysis
I'm not going to post too much free analysis during the playoffs, but I don't have much on Saturday that's worth buying either, so I thought I'd post my Saturday analysis.
Chicago (+8 ½) over BOSTON
Boston will be without star big man Kevin Garnett for this game and most likely for the rest of the playoffs and the Celtics have not been nearly as good without him. Boston is a pretty good 18-7 straight up in 25 games without Garnett this season, but the Celts are just 10-15 ATS in those games and they’re not winning by big margins as often. Boston has out-scored their opponents by only 3.8 points per game without Garnett, which is much worse than the +9.1 scoring margin in 57 games with their star forward. The Celtics are only 2-9 ATS laying 7 points or more without Garnett and the Bulls are certainly capable of hanging tough in this game given that they are 14-8 straight up and 13-9 ATS with their current nucleus of players (i.e. since Luol Deng has been out). Chicago beat Boston 127-121 at home in their only game against the Celtics without Garnett and there was nothing fluky about that win given that Boston made 11 of their 20 3-point shots (compared to just 6 of 16 for Chicago) and still lost the game. I’ll consider Chicago a Strong Opinion at +8 or more (a regular opinion at +7 ½) and I’d take the Bulls in a 2-Star Best Bet at +9 or more.
I also see value in taking Chicago at +4.50 to 1 in the series (the series price is between +400 and +475) - consider it a Strong Opinion.
CLEVELAND (-12) versus Detroit
Detroit is just 6-12 straight up in their last 18 games, but the Pistons were without Rasheed Wallace for many of those losses and they are 9-5 with Wallace playing and without Allen Iverson (since the trade for Iverson in early November). Detroit is also 12-3-1 ATS the last 6 seasons as a road underdog of 7 points or more, including 7-2 ATS this season (6-0 ATS more recently). Cleveland has been a good bet at home over the course of the season (27-14 ATS) and they are 9-0 ATS at home after a loss – indicating that they can turn up their level of play with properly motivated. I’ll pass on this game.
SAN ANTONIO (-4) versus Dallas
The Spurs aren’t quite as good without Manu Ginobili and Dallas is a bit better with Josh Howard playing, and these teams are pretty evenly matched with their current lineups. I’d favor San Antonio by 3 ½ points, but ½ a point of line value isn’t enough to cover the juice, so I have no opinion at +4 and I’d lean with Dallas at +4 ½ or more.
PORTLAND (-4 ½) versus Houston
Houston blew their chance for home field advantage in round 1 by dropping their regular season finale at Dallas on Wednesday, but the Rockets are a resilient team (18-10 ATS after a loss this season) and should play well. Portland, however, is rolling along with 10 wins in their last 11 games (and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games) and the Blazers have been good at home all season (27-14 ATS). My ratings favor Portland by 5 ½ points, which is too close to the number to have a lean on either side. I’d lean with Portland at -4 or less and I’d lean with Houston at +6 or more.
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
2.5-Unit Play. Take San Francisco (-155) over Arizona
2-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-125) over L.A. Angels
1-Unit Play. Take Chicago Cubs (-130) over St. Louis
1-Unit Play. Take Seattle (-140) over Detroit
Underdog System Play
1-Unit Play. Take Baltimore (+1.5, +115) over Boston
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 San Diego at Philadelphia
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Oakland at Toronto
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Florida at Washington
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.0 Arizona at San Francisco
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.0 Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay
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