TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
3-Unit Play Take New Orleans/Miami UNDER 190½
Miami is one of those teams that can step it up and play strong defense or they can run-and-gun with up-tempo teams. However, we think this one will be a defensive battle and half-court game. New Orleans under has been a great bet lately as 10 of their last 13 games have gone under the posted number. We were expecting a total around 187 here so we think there is some nice value. The last four New Orleans games have been high scoring but they have played mostly teams that like to run and don’t play defense. This is a key game for both teams for playoff seeding and we expect a defensive battle all the way through. 10 of the last 13 meetings in Miami have gone under the posted number.
4-Unit Play #Take San Antonio/Oklahoma City OVER 182
The Thunder has been a hot under team but we think this number has been overadjusted and is several points too low. OKC has allowed 100 or more points in seven of their last nine games. They have given up 107 PPG in their last five contests. Tim Duncan is listed as questionable for this game and if he doesn’t go there will be some more opportunities for points in the paint for the Thunder. The Spurs have played under the posted total just once in their last seven games. They have also given up over 100 in both of their last two games.
4-Unit Play Take Minnesota/LA Clippers UNDER 202
Both teams are really shorthanded tonight and we just don’t know who is going to score all these points to get this one over the posted number. Both teams have players dealing with the flu, various injuries and Zach Randolph has been suspended for a DUI. Both teams have been giving up a lot of points but most of their recent games have come against strong offensive teams. Neither of these squads has been able to put points on the board lately, however. The Clippers have averaged just 96 PPG in their last five and the T-Wolves have been even worse than that, and for longer. The under is 14-6 in the last 10 for Minnesota and 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4-Unit Play. Take #974 Boston (-140) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
I love it that this number is dropping. I love it. I love that everyone is hopping back on the Rays. Let ‘em. And the fact that this game got pushed back a day is even better for us. Another day in the cage, so to speak, for the Sox. You think Boston wants to come out and make a statement in this game or what? Tampa Bay bounced them from the playoffs last year and did so to cap a bitter, bitter season series. But the bottom line is that – even last year when they were good – the D-Rays do not play well in Boston (4-6). Tampa Bay is just 11-40 in its last 51 games in Fenway and their hurler, James Shields, is 0-3 with a 10.15 ERA in his career throwing there. Shields is also just 2-8 in his last 10 games against the Rays and is 12-26 as an underdog. Mix in the fact that Boston has cruised in its last three home openers, that this is the type of big game in which Josh Beckett thrives, and the fact that Tampa is still without B.J. Upton, and I love this value.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Detroit at Toronto (7 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
Wow. That was my first thought about the Toronto offense yesterday. Those guys looked pretty good. And I think that they can scratch out four or five runs against Ed Jackson and the teetering Detroit bullpen. But the main crux of this play relies on a couple things. First, we have Jerry Layne behind the dish. And Layne has one of the tightest strike zones in the Majors. Add on top of that the fact that Detroit slays left-handed pitching and that Toronto is trotting out David “I’m In Way Over My Head As a No. 2 Starter” Purcey and I like where this is heading. Purcey had some control issues this spring and his 1.54 spring ERA was a bit misleading. I think that Purcey is going to get rocked – with some support from Layne. Also, Jackson no longer has the benefit of that great Tampa defense. He pitches to contact and Detroit doesn’t field. That’s trouble. I like this one to settle around 8-5 and I like the Tigers to come out on top.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #960 St. Louis (-145) over Pittsburgh (8 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
Technically, the system at work here calls for a runline play. But since it is early in the year and we have this number under 150 I'm just going to go after the win. The bottom line is that the Cardinals controlled that game yesterday and are the better team. They are going to get one of these games, so we're going to chase out on them and look for them NOT to get swept by the Pirates. Ian Snell is just
1.5-Unit Play. Take #965 Detroit (+105) over Toronto (7 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
I said yesterday that we were going to work an underdog chase on the Tigers in this one. I see them taking one game in this series and we're going to be getting underdog odds on them so I feel the value is there. Over the last two years the Tigers have been one of the best hitting teams in the league against left-handed pitching and today they are facing a mediocre one. I think they get their licks in and in a game that sees a lot of runs that favors the Tigers and their lineup.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #963 Los Angeles Dodgers (-105) over San Diego (10 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
If the Dodgers just put up four runs against Jake Peavy and earned a win at San Diego yesterday, what do you think they are going to do today? The Dodgers are simply a better team and they are going to lay it on yet again. This will be a low scoring affair. But the bottom line is that even if we lose we have already won this series because of our underdog score yesterday.
1-Unit Play. Take #957 Chicago Cubs (-110) over Houston (7 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
It's the Cubs against a left-handed starter. I hate to mess with Wandy Rodriguez at home, where he dominates, but the bottom line is that the Cubs have been an exceptional road team over the last couple of years and they absolutely maul-left-handed pitching. They came out looking sharp yesterday and Alfonso Soriano has been swinging a good stick the last couple weeks. When he's hot they are nearly unbeatable.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Washington at Florida (7 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 7.5 Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego (10 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.5 Atlanta at Philadelphia (7 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 9.0 Colorado at Arizona (7 p.m., Tuesday, April 7)
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Play: 5 Unit Play. Take Toronto Raptors +1.5 over the Atlanta Hawks (GOY)
I've been on the Raptors several games and have written about them in our blog as well as the daily page. The Raptors had covered 6 in a row and won 6 straight before recently losing to the Knicks in their last game. But, you can't blame that team for the loss. After all, it was a home and home where they had just defeated the Knicks in MSG so the Knicks were coming back with revenge. It is expected. The Raptors prior to that game had gone on a streak as this lineup of Marion, Bosh, Bargnani, Calderon and Parker is clicking well and a bench that features Graham, Ukic and Kapono is doing well. Remember, this is the same team that went into Orlando and won by 4 Outright with revenge as 10 point dogs, beat Chicago at home in OT even though the Bulls were playing well and had revenge that game (which says a lot), beat OKC by 16 (which we were on as one of our PODs), beat the Bucks by 9 at home (which really was a worse beating than that) and beat the Clippers by 24. If this team is able to get revenge on Orlando on the road, then why can this team not get revenge on the Hawks who they lost to 84-87 earlier this year back on January 19th - at home and on a bounce-back? This team did not have the lineup that it has on the floor right now as Marion was not part of this team then and Joey Graham was starting that game - whereas now, he is coming off the bench with Marion stepping in. Heck, this team led by 9 at the half, only to have a horrible 3rd quarter in Hotlanta scoring just 13 points and although the Raps covered the 7.5, they did not defeat Hawks Outright. Well, they get that opportunity today. The Hawks are already in the playoffs so sure, yes, they are fighting for seeding. But, that is irrelevant to me as the Raps are playing well at home and overall, covering 6 of 7 and the Hawks continue to be a "two-faced" team on the road. The Hawks are 14-24 Overall on the road, typically do not do well as road favorites as they are 1-6 as small faves of 0-5 points on the road and the Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Hawks are my team, but they are in a tough spot today with Toronto looking to get their revenge as this as close to the playoffs the Raptors so I believe they will enjoy winning this game.
Play: 4 Unit Play. Take the Detroit Tigers +100 over the Toronto Bluejays (POD)
Usually we play totals in the AL but sometimes, we get a decent side to play and tossup money and that is the case today. Whenever a pitcher pitches for a new ball club, he typically does well. Take a look at Derek Lowe for example with the Braves - C.C. Sabathia does not count because I truly believe that all new pitchers that end up going to the Yankees stink. I just think it's the curse of paying these players these ridiculous and absorbent amount of funds. I hope Mark T. doesn't get a hit recorded until mid May. But, Jackson pitchers for the first time for the Tigers. He is familiar with the Jays as they are with him and the Tigers remember come off their loss from yesterday when they had to see Roy Halladay's pitches all day and scored just 1 run. They face a hurler in Purcey who is a lefty but is listed 3rd on the depth rotation but starts today to give a R, L, R break in the rotation. The kid is talented but inconsistent and I believe the Tigers offense will get to him at some point for several runs while Edwin holds down the fort. Jackson is 5-0 in Toronto in lifetime starts in Toronto. If you are looking for some additional plays, you might want to take a look at Oakland as the home town kid Cahill for Oakland throws against Mosely or even taking a look at the Under for this game. I have a feeling that Toronto might get to Edwin early for a run or two as they just saw each other for spring training, but I feel the Tigers will give Edwin enough offense to carry him through here.
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