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SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4 Unit Play. Take Under 134 between Michigan State vs. UConn
We come off Oregon State outright yesterday and we are closing the season on a high note winning the last 3 of 4 PODs. Let's hit 4 of 5 today. I suspect this line will increase prior to game time, so if you want to wait a bit to taking the Under, it should do you well. This might seem like a short line here at 134 but there is good reason to be. I would love to take UConn here, but let's not forget this is essentially a home game for Michigan State and yes, that is a big deal. Imagine if this was a semi-home game for Michigan State during the regular season, would you not think to yourself, well, it's not that impossible that this team wins Outright? Such is the case here. I have ridden totals this last week because I have felt they have been a bit inflated. We hit the Under in the NIT with Baylor and Penn State and that same concept goes here. Michigan State dropped 77 against Robert Morris, 74 against USC, 67 against Kansas (defeating them twice this year) and 64 against Louisville. This team has given up fewer points essentially in each game this year as the teams have gotten better giving up 69 to USC, 62 to Kansas and most recently, 52 to Louisville. Who is to say this is not to be a drag down defensive game? Remember, the last Big East squad to face Michigan State, the Cardinals did not exceed 52 points. Now, that won't happen here as UConn and Calhoun will have the Huskies ready for this team. This game in some way reminds me of UConn vs. Purdue as Uconn won 72-60 (132) and was able to cover the spread. I believe UConn is a better team than Louisville in some ways as they are disciplined - remember, UConn took it to Louisville at Louisville on the road this year. If Purdue scores just 60 points on UConn as the better offensive team than Michigan State, and considering Michigan State is the better defensive team than Purdue, impacted by the fact I believe Michigan State will dictate the pace of this game, I suspect this will be a defensive minded game. I have this total in the mid 120's similar to a 64-60 type of final. Hopefully we won't get nipped by free throws in the end, but the Under is 11-4 in the Spartans last 15 contests and UConn has played over in every single game in this tournament - except when they faced Big 12 foe Purdue.
4 Unit Play. Take Over 200.5 between Memphis @ Milwaukee
Let's try to cash 8 of 11 PODs in the NBA. If you are looking for some other plays today, I'd suggest taking a long look at the Money-Line on this game with Memphis or taking them at the +7 as well as they should be solid. Also, I would take a look at Washington as they likely upset the Heat today because they took a 20+ dubbing at their hands on the road in Miami and with the possibility of Jamison coming back and Crittenton/Arenas might play today as well, as this team has covered 4 in a row, this is the reason why there is such a small spread at home for the Heat on the road. The Heat are also on a back to back while Washington is rested and ready to roll - remember, this team just beat the Cavs at home and was dubbing them for the most part in that game. For today's play, let's roll with the Over in Milwaukee. For starters, I expect Memphis to be a very tough dog today and might even win this outright. But, rather than the side, I'll take the Over as Memphis lost 99-101 on the road at Milwaukee las time. Furthermore, this team lost by 5 at home to Milwaukee and by 5 points again at home to Milwaukee in OT. Memphis has been playing much better since their embarrassing 66-86 loss to Portland and just come off an Outright win over the Mavs at home as a similar 7 point dog. Milwaukee comes off some frustrating road losses including a 10 point loss to Milwaukee. Let's put it this way, if the Milwaukee/Philly game goes to 200 and the Laker game totals 204 in Milwaukee, there is no reason why this game which should feature Memphis wanting to play an uptempo game goes over. Memphis is playing with a much more focused attitude and shooting much better since the rough outing at Portland. I expect them to raise the bar early as they continue to push the total over and consequently, I expect both teams to go over 100 points today with a likely Memphis win. Over is 5-1 for the Grizzlies when they are a road dog by this margin and over is 4-1 for the Bucks when they face a team with a losing record at home, meaning they do not do well covering big spreads at home as these teams are competitive and send the total over.
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Game: Villanova at North Carolina
Prediction: North Carolina
Reason: Ai Simulator 15* graded play on UNC as the face Villanova. AiS shows an 87% probability that UNC will win this game by 8 or more points. AiS shows a 90% probability that UNC will score 81 or more points. note that Villanova is just 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in road games when they allow 81 or more points in a game since 1997. UNC is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games versus good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season; 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Villanova has played fundamentally sound especially regarding turnovers. Yet, they are just 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997. HC Williams is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds in all games he has coached since 1997; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers in all games he has coached since 1997. UNC is also on a nice run noting they are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament over the last 2 seasons. Fundamentally, UNC just has too much size and the speed advantage for Villanova is quite minimal. So many times in history we have seen college teams come back to play for that one last year and for the national Championship. That sort of dedication is quite rare and nearly always pays off. Now, in the Final 4, UNC will look to play quick, fast, and physical right from the start. The higher the score goes the bigger the advantage for UNC - and that means the UNC score. UNC’s tempo will be to get to 80 points as fast as possible and that tempo alone will wear down Villanova throughout the game. Take UNC.
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
1500* - Michigan State Spartans
500* - Villanova Wildcats
In the nightcap, I give Villanova a shot at staying within striking distance of mighty North Carolina.
No arguing the Tar Heels are probably the best of the 4 teams left standing, but Villanova has plenty of experience - 3 senior starters, and plenty of depth - 8 players are averaging 18 minutes per game.
The Wildcats are quick enough to hang with the Tar Heels, and they are also athletic enough to hang with the Tar Heels, and let's not forget Villanova has already shredded # 2 seed, and ACC rep, Duke rather easily, and the 'Cats also beat back the regionals # 1 seed Pittsburgh last week at the buzzer.
I just don't see Villanova getting blown out in this game.
Let's take the points.
500♦ - Villanova Wildcats
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