Sunday Service Plays

Re: Sunday Service Plays

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Spurs/Hornets OVER 177.5

The Hornets have gone under the number in 8 straight games to create exceptional line value today. This is the lowest number facing the Hornets during their unders stretch and I expect them to beat it easily. Also, the Spurs have played to the Over in 4 of their last 5 games when faced with a total under 180. Plays over where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games are 94-38 since 1996 and Plays over on any team (Hornets) where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points after 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games are 58-18 since 1996. Bet the Over.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Oklahoma City at Boston

Oklahoma City is 10-1 UNDER when playing with one day of rest and they are 28-11 UNDER vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. The Thunder are 6-1 UNDER after allowing 100 or more points in their last game and they are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 games vs. Atlantic Division teams. Boston is 9-1-1 UNDER their last 11 games vs. Northwest Division teams and they are 5-1 UNDER off a straight up win. The Celtics are 6-2 UNDER off an ATS win and they are 7-3 UNDER their last 10 games vs. Western Conference teams. PLAY ON 'UNDER'

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Re: Sunday Service Plays



Louisville/ Michigan State Over 138

Yes both of these teams play very good defense, but both teams can score as well. The Cardinals have averaged 85.3 ppg in the tourney and 79.5 ppg since their blowout loss to the Irish. The Cardinal have averaged 80.2 ppg in their last 5and hve shot 51% ovr that stretch, plus they have put up 70+ points in 10 of their last 13. Ok that's a little over half of what we need. Now if we can get 70 out of the Spartans, then this will be a cake walk. Michigan State has put up 72 ppg on the year, including 71.6 ppg on neutral floors and 72.6 ppg in the Tourney. Two other factors here should be the fact that this will be a physical game and much like last night's Pitt/ Louisville game it will lead to many FT attemps, plus this should be a tight game and that means one of these teams will be fouled alot down the stretch, giving us some cheap late points. I see this one being played in the high 140's.   


Louisville -6.5 over Michigan State

I know I said above that this should be a close game and I still think it will for the most part, but I also see the Cardinals depth and pressure defense wearing down the Spartans and pulling away in the final 4 minutes of the game. State is off a couple of close physical games vs Kansas and USC, while the Cardinals got to rest many of their players in the blowout win over Arizona, so they shoud be the fresher team here.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Michael Alexander

Boston Bruins vs. Philadelphia Flyers     
Play: Boston Bruins +107         

The Boston Bruins travel to take on the Philadelphia Flyers in NHL Picks acation tonight. The bruins, after winning five of six after the All-Star break went through a tough stretch that saw them go only 6-9-4. That streak allowed New Jersey and Washington to gain ground in the East standings. However, after last night's win in Toronto the Bruins have won two in a row putting them at 48-17-10 overall and pushed them five points ahead of the Capitals six in front of New Jersey with eight games remaining. The Bruins are looking to gain the top seed in the NHL picks playoffs for the first time since 2001-02.

The win last night snapped a 5 game road losing streak of NHL Picks for the Bruins. However, surprisingly they have owned the Flyers on their how ice winning their last 3 in a row. The Bruins will be without leading scorer Phil Kessel tonight for a second consecutive game who has an undisclosed injury.

The Philadelphia Flyers come into tonight's NHL Picks game sitting in fourth place in the conference with 92 points. The Flyers have also won four of their last five putting them at 41-23-10 on the season. The current NHL Picks winning streak has moved them one point ahead of red-hot Carolina in the battle for home-ice advantage. However their point total puts them only six points in front of Montreal for the eighth and final NHL Picks playoff spot.

Trends/Angles: BOSTON is 19-7 ATS (+10.1 Units) off a win by 2 goals or more over a division rival over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON is 15-3 ATS (+10.1 Units) after 2 straight wins by 2 goals or more this season. BOSTON is 24-7 ATS (+14.2 Units) against poor possession teams-averaging 3+ less shots on goal than opp over the last 2 seasons.

Boston Goaltender, Tim Thomas, should be in net tonight and that should put the Bruins in a position to not have to cover a lot of goals. I'm taking the Bruins in this one.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Johnny Guild

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets

The home team has dominated this series, winning 10 of the last 11 contests both straight-up and against thee spread. However, the Spurs offense has suddenly awakened and are playing tough defense, while the Hornets offense has gone limp. Go with the Spurs! San Antonio is 3-1 both straight-up and against thee spread in the last four clashes versus New Orleans.

San Antonio Spurs -1


Louisville Cardinals -7
Mich St/Louisville Under -138
North Carolina Tar Heels -7

Mr. A

Cleveland Cavaliers -8½
Phoenix Suns -5

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Re: Sunday Service Plays


Date: Sunday, March 29, 2009

Game: Oklahoma Sooners vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Sport: NCAA Basketball

Time: 4:05PM CST

(722) North Carolina Tar Heels (-7)

North Carolina is on a roll and they are one of the few teams that can
match up with the Sooners Blake Griffin on the inside. This game will
rest on the play of the guards and the depth of both teams, areas where
the Tar Heels have an distinct advantage. Lay the points as the Heels
advance to the Final Four.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

MTi Sports

The Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS at home with at least a day of rest after a win in which Lebron James had a double double.The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS on the road after a loss at home in which Dirk Nowitzki took more than 20 shots.Mavericks 12-0 ATS (+12.0 ppg) as a dog with at most one day of rest after a loss in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays


Dallas at Cleveland   
The Mavs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 1 day of rest and face a Cavs team that is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games against the Southwest Division.  Cleveland is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cavaliers favored by 10.   Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-8 1/2).   

Game 701-702: Dallas at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 118.471; Cleveland 128.283
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 10; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 8 1/2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-8 1/2); Over

Game 703-704: LA Lakers at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 124.950; Atlanta 120.234
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4 1/2; 195 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3 1/2; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-3 1/2); Under

Game 705-706: Chicago at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 117.357; Toronto 120.373
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 3; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-2); Under

Game 707-708: New Jersey at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 116.854; Minnesota 115.324
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey by 3; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Under

Game 709-710: Philadelphia at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 117.810; Detroit 119.257
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 2 1/2; 184 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+2 1/2); Over

Game 711-712: Washington at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 107.916; Indiana 119.933
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 12; 209 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 8 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-8 1/2); Over

Game 713-714: Oklahoma City at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 114.240; Boston 124.604
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 10 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 11 1/2; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+11 1/2); Over

Game 715-716: San Antonio at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 121.809; New Orleans 118.383
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 182 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 1; 178 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-1); Over

Game 717-718: Phoenix at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 121.528; Sacramento 116.499
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5; 239
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6; 238
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+6); Over


Oklahoma vs. North Carolina
The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 NCAA tournament games as a favorite between 7 and 12 1/2 points, while the Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA tournament games as an underdog by the same margin.  North Carolina is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Tar Heels favored by 8 1/2.  Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-7).   

Game 719-720: Michigan State vs. Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 69.590; Louisville 80.129
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Louisville by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-6 1/2)

Game 721-722: Oklahoma vs. North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 70.230; North Carolina 78.875
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 7
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-7)


Boston at Philadelphia
The Bruins are just 1-5 in their last 6 road games, while the Flyers are 4-1 in their last 5 on the back end of back-to-back games.  Philadelphia is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1.  Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130). 

Game 1-2: Nashville at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.036; Detroit 12.233
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-320); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-320); Over

Game 3-4: St. Louis at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.346; Columbus 11.699
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (-160); Over

Game 5-6: Ottawa at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.086; Tampa Bay 11.726
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+140); Over

Game 7-8: Boston at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.555; Philadelphia 12.590
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Over

Game 9-10: Vancouver at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.354; Chicago 11.520
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-145); Under

Game 11-12: Minnesota at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.402; Edmonton 11.605
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-155); Under

Game 13-14: Colorado at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 9.550; Anaheim 11.918
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-260); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-260); Over

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Re: Sunday Service Plays


Michigan State vs Louisville
Take Michigan State +6.5 for 3 Units & Under 138 for 2 Units

Louisville has benefited from an easy schedule of opponents so far in the NCAA tournament as they faced the play-in game winner Morehead State, and then faced Siena and Arizona in the next two rounds. Today's game will be the first real test for the Cardinals as Michigan State is a dangerous underdog that was a fantastic 16-5 SU this season versus teams ranked top 50 in my power ratings, including 7-2 SU when facing a top 25 opponent. This strong record in big games is not a surprise as Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo remains one the best coaches in the nation. Izzo is 18-8 ATS (69%) as an underdog in neutral court games and his team has performed well so far this tournament with impressive wins versus USC and Kansas. We also get line value as my power ratings favor Louisville by just 4½ points today. The Cardinals rely heavily on their pressure defense, but Michigan State takes solid care of the basketball and they have averaged just 11.8 turnovers in their past five games. The Spartans also qualify as a defensive underdog as they allow just 63.0 points per game and only 41.5% FG (versus opponents that allow 68.0 ppg and 45.0%). Louisville takes 38% of their shots from three-point range and Michigan State has a strong three-point defense that allows just 31.5% (versus opponents that average 35.7%). The Spartans also hold a substantial edge from the free throw line where they average 70% FT this season, compared to a Louisville squad that shoots just 64% FT (ranked 301st out of 344 teams in the nation).

Oklahoma vs North Carolina
Play Under 164 for 3 units and Oklahoma +7 for 2 Units

North Carolina is coming off three straight high-scoring games and the oddsmakers are once again forced to inflate the total as my power ratings predict just 160 total points today and the Tar Heels are 3-1 Under in their past four games with only one of their past six games totaling more than 159 total points. North Carolina gets 77% of their total points from two-point range and they will now be facing a strong Oklahoma interior defense that ranks 20th in the nation and allows just 42.6% from two-point range this season (national average is 48.0%). Oklahoma also relies on their scoring down low with power forward Blake Griffin and North Carolina has a strong interior defense that allows just 44.3% from two-point range and ranks 39th in the nation. This game features one of the best matchups of the season with Tyler Hansbrough versus Blake Griffin down low and each All-American should prevent the other from scoring easy baskets. Tournament games are also a strong 36-12 Under in this price range (160 or higher) when teams enter off back-to-back SU wins. OU should not be counted out here. All of the scoring models actually show this game to be very close....look for a competitive game.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Tony George

Phoenix Suns vs. Sacramento Kings    
Play: Suns -5

Love the Suns wgho need every win in the playoff race coming down the stretch here. The NBA's #1 offense against the paltry Kings who have fallen off the map. Think Vegas oddsmakers know the Suns will score some here? The total is 238!! KIngs cannot trrade punches on offense and the Suns getting sneaky good covering 6 out of their last 8.

Suns 118 Kings 101 ....I sniff a blowout tonight guys..

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Ben Burns

Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: Edmonton Oilers

While this is a very big game for both teams, the Oilers have the advantage of having had yesterday off and also of playing on home ice. Home ice has been particularly important in this series. Indeed, the Oilers have lost 10 straight at Minnesota but they've won four straight series meetings here at Edmonton. With the Wild at just 5-11 the last 16 times that they played the second of back to back games, consider laying the wood with the home team.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Dennis Macklin

Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning
Prediction: Ottawa Senators

Two teams really struggling for a win. The Senators are monsters at home but have lost five of last seven with suitcase including last at Atlanta. The Lightning have lost five of six overall and like Meatloaf said, "are praying for the end of time, so vacation can hurry up and arrive." Teams have split pretty much of late but the Lightning have allowed 39 goals in L10 and lighting the lamp has not been a problem for the more urgent Senators. Take Ottawa.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Greg Shaker

Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics
Play: Over 190.5

It would be easy to look at this contest and figure that Under is the play. Afterall, the Celtics have one Hell of a D, and lately they have been using that to the tune of allowing just over 83 points per game the last 5 times on the court. With Garnett probably sitting this one out, we have another resason why Under is the play. But we can look at things further and less of the obvious to see that this number might be a little bit understated. Certainly one of those is the fact that Boston's competition level has not been up to snuff with games verses the Clips, Grizzlies, along with lower paced contest with Atlanta, San Antonio and Orlando. This game has totally different dynamics because number one, it is at the garden, and number 2, it is verses the Thunder. Ok City has been up-tempoing in a big way 9 games with 160+ shots or more taken by them and their opponent in each and every contest. The Over/Under numbers don't show up very well with Under being 7-2 in those affairs but the dynamics are there considering the fact that this is the second lowest posted total during this stretch. Because of their inability to stop the opposition, road games have been a chore for the Thunder, allowing well over the century mark over their last 3 of 4 in this situation and 108 ppg all year. That is why they are 20-14 OVER the mark when they venture out of town and let's not forget that Boston is 22-13 OVER when they eat home cooking. That OVER Bonanza here has also been 15-5 last 20 here at the Garden. Boston can score at this court and evidenced by the huge betting line of minus eleven, they should dispose of the Thunder this evening. But what we are likely to see is less than the usual intense D effort by this team as they prepare for Bigger Fish down the road. Going thru the motions is going to be our friend for this one, and I would play it up to 194. although I think there is a chance that this line moves the other way.

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Re: Sunday Service Plays

Dwayne Bryant

DET -2 vs PHI

The Pistons are sure glad to have Richard Hamilton back in the lineup. In his first game back since missing six with a left groin injury, Hamilton hit a season-high five 3-pointers and scored 31 points in a 98-96 win over the Wizards last night. Detroit was 1-5 without its star guard.The Pistons also do a great job of rebounding. Even without Rasheed Wallace's 7.5 rebounds per game, the Pistons have outrebounded their last 10 opponents by an average of 5.9.Detroit has lost four of five at home since winning three in a row there March 3-9, but I expect Detroit to get the home win today with Hamilton running the show.This is also a revenge game for Detroit, who lost at home to the 76ers, 96-91, back on 12/05/08. The Sixers outscored Detroit 38-24 in the fourth quarter to steal that win. I don't see that happening today with Detroit fighting for their playoff lives.I'll lay the small number with the revenge-minded home team from Detroit.

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