FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

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Dave Malinsky

5* Arizona / Louisville Under
4* Michigan St
4* Minn / Cleve Under
4* Milw / Orlando Under

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ADAM MEYER

Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks

The Nuggets will be gunning for their 7th win in 8 games tonight against Dallas. They have beaten the Mavericks in al 3 previous meetings this season and have averaged 101.7 PPG against them. Even without Nene (suspended) Denver still seems to have Dallas’ number . Dallas continues to lack the will to play tough defense against teams like Denver who can both run the floor and shoot well from the outside.

4' Units Denver Nuggets +5


Louisville vs. Arizona

6 Units Louisville -8.5 

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Steve Liebman

North Carolina vs. Gonzaga

Neither of these teams plays a slow-down brand of basketball. They combine to score 170 PPG-and a lot of those games each team played were against opponents who DID play a slower style of hoops hoping to keep the games close. Even if the ‘Heels’ Ty Lawson is not at 100% his presence still means UNC will push the ball up court even more than they have to date in the tournament. Both teams shoot 48% from the field. Look for a running and gunning type of game from these two teams tonight.

5 Units Over 162

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Stephen Nover

New Orleans -5

Not only is there a huge talent gap between these two teams, but the spot is ripe for the Hornets.The Knicks are mentally down knowing that once again they won't be making the post-season. They have lost six in a row, with four coming at home. The Knicks are allowing an average of 115 points during this stretch.The Hornets rank among the top six in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. They have held their past 15 foes to an average of less than 92 points per game.Chris Paul should have a monster game. The Knicks are hurting at guard. Chris Duhon has disappeared and Nate Robinson suffered an ankle injury on Wednesday.


New Orleans at New York Under 207

Chris Paul gets all the attention when the subject of the New Orleans Hornets is brought up.But the Hornets are a pretty darn good defensive club. They rank fourth in scoring defense and sixth in defensive field goal percentage.The Hornets have held their last 15 opponents to an average of 91.8 points per game.The Knicks can score points, but they have point guard problems. Chris Duhon hit the wall weeks ago. He's not playing nearly as well as he did earlier this season and Nate Robinson suffered an ankle injury in the Knicks' previous game on Wednesday.The Hornets' offense is down minus Peja Stojakovic and Tyson Chandler. New Orleans is averaging only 90.7 points in its last seven games.


Milwaukee +12

The Bucks are clinging on life support for a playoff berth. So they should play hard, especially since Orlando embarrassed them at home, 106-80, in Milwaukee recently.That loss had to really bother Bucks hard-nosed coach Scott Skiles. The Bucks catch Orlando in a letdown spot.Orlando is off a huge victory against Boston on Wednesday, 84-82. That victory not only clinched the Southeast Division for the Magic, but also moved them into the No. 2 seed behind Cleveland, who they are not going to catch. The win also eclipsed Orlando's win mark from last season.The last time Orlando played Boston on March 8, the Magic lost at Detroit in its next game, 98-94. The time before that when the Magic played Boston, which was on Jan. 22, they lost in their next game at Miami, 103-97.I'm certainly not recommending a money-line play on the underdog Bucks. But Milwaukee is averaging 99.1 points this month and forcing more than 16 turnovers per game. Remember, the Magic don't have their regular point guard, Jameer Nelson.The Bucks have the motivation. They should be able to hang within this big number.


Oklahoma City +5.5

The Thunder usually can be counted on for a good effort when on the road where they have covered 63 percent of the time this season.Oklahoma City has covered the number in five of its past six road matchups. The Thunder should be primed for a strong effort having been idle since Tuesday.Toronto is off home wins versus the Clippers and Bucks. The last time Toronto won three games in a row was the beginning of the season.Chris Bosh has personal distractions and point guard Jose Calderon is dealing with a sore hamstring and a dislocated right ring finger.

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The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections

9000* NBA NON CONFERENCE PLAY OF THE YEAR

Toronto -5

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HalfBets

7* Michigan St -1

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Teddy Covers

Big Ticket: Gonzaga +8.5

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Master Sports

4'* Hornets

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Billy Coleman

5* Sac
4* Arizona Over
3* Mich St

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Kelso

50 unit Michigan St

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C-Stars Sports

5000 Units March Madness Game of the Year! Syracuse over Oklahoma
50 Units Arizona/Louisville UNDER the total
50 Units Gonzaga plus the points over North Carolina

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DOC

3 Unit Play. Take Arizona +9 over Louisville

3 Unit Play. Take Michigan State -1 ½ over Kansas

5 Unit Play. Take Syracuse +1 over Oklahoma

NBA

3-Unit Play Take Oklahoma City +5 Over Toronto

4-Unit Play Take New Orleans/New York UNDER 205

4-Unit Play Take New Jersey +7 Over LA Lakers

3-Unit Play Take LA Clippers/San Antonio OVER 192

NHL

5 Unit Play.Take Under 6 in New York @ Detroit

One of the worst teams in hockey heads to Detroit to play one of the best. The Islanders come to Detroit playing out the string but to their credit are still playing hard but just way short on talent, they face a Detroit team that is fighting with the Sharks for the top spot in the West. Detroit goalie Chris Osgood will get his first start since Mondays meltdown in Calgary where he gave up three goal's on just fourteen shots before getting pulled. This has happen twice to Osgood and the Red Wings in the last month when he gave up eight goals to Columbus then was given two games off and came back and held St.Louis to two goals and a week before that gave up eight goals to Nashville and then came back to shutout the Blues. My point being this is a perfect spot for Osgood and more importantly the Red Wings to shutdown a punch less Islanders team and give their goalie some confidence back. This Total is sky high at 6 and I know the Red Wings could name the score but I don't see the Islanders doing much offensively and with a total this high you need both teams to put the back in the net to get over. Good value here on the under.

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Robert Ferringo

1.5-Unit Play. Take North Carolina (-8.5) over Gonzaga

Look, I like Gonzaga. They’re a nice little squad. But they aren’t going to be able to hang with the Tar Heels. Because when it comes right down to it, the Bulldogs are just a really good mid-major. They’re not a BCS team and they don’t have BCS talent. And although everyone wants to jump on the Bulldogs bandwagon, they aren’t a Cinderella anymore and they aren’t sneaking up on anyone.

This year UNC is 0-5 ATS as a favorite of less than 10 points. However, three of those games were without Ty Lawson and the other two were on the road in conference. Last year UNC was 11-5 ATS as a favorite of less than 10 points per game, so it’s not a full line indicator. North Carolina is 36-15 ATS in nonconference games, 8-3 ATS in neutral site games and 6-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga is just 1-7 ATS in nonconference games and 0-4 ATS in its last four tournament games. The Bulldogs looked awful against Akron and weren’t much better against Western Kentucky.

As far as matchups go, Gonzaga doesn’t have anyone to guard Tyler Hansbrough. They don’t. If Josh Heytvelt tries to guard Hansbrough he’s going to get into foul trouble and then Gonzaga is really screwed. I love Heytvelt, but he’s a soft four, not a center. The only other recourse Mark Few will have would be 7-5 Will Foster, but he averages about seven minutes per game and he can’t be counted on to stop a First Team All-American. And on top of that, UNC has Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, and Tyler Zeller to contribute quality minutes in the post.

So we’ve established that Gonzaga won’t stop UNC down low. That leaves the matchup of Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green against Jeremy Pargo, Matt Bouldin, and Micah Downs. I’ll go ahead and give UNC the check mark there. North Carolina is healthy, they have had a few days to prepare and work Lawson back into the flow, they have a major experience advantage, and they are used to playing a high level of basketball at this level. I think that it’s easy to get suckered in by the points. But when UNC is on they are 15 points better than all but about 12-15 teams in the country. Gonzaga isn’t one of those teams.


2.5-Unit Play. Take Syracuse (+1) over Oklahoma

If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it 1,000 times: the NCAA Tournament is about guard play. And right now the Orange have the better guards. They have played as well as any team in the country over the last three weeks and they are really peaking at the right time. If this game turns into an up-and-down affair, and I think it will, then I think that has to favor the Orange. I understand that Blake Griffin is a dominator. But Syracuse’s 2-3 zone has neutralized great big men before. And with all the talk about OU’s guards and if they are up to the task, I think that they will be easily baited into jacking up threes. Austin Johnson is a bit banged up and I don’t see him staying with Johnny Flynn. And if the Orange shoot the ball nearly as well as they have over the last three weeks then they are going to be nearly impossible to stop. Blake Griffin dominated the Big 12 this year. But other than Cole Aldrich and some Texas big men, where are the quality post players in that league? Nebraska? Kansas State? Oklahoma State? Baylor? All of those teams run three- and four-guard sets with no big men. Syracuse has three quality post players and ultra-strong Paul Harris. That gives them 20 fouls and some guys to throw the ball into in order to keep the Griffin boys honest on defense. Further, just like Memphis, you can't point to the top teams that Oklahoma has beaten this year. Syracuse beat Kansas in Kansas City and they beat Memphis in Memphis. OU lost at Arkansas. I think that's significant and I think that the focused, determined Orange team (the one that has been ridiculously snubbed from the past two tournaments) is going to stay hot and advance here.

Teasers

1-Unit Play. Take Syracuse (+6) over Oklahoma AND Take North Carolina (-3.5) over Gonzaga

1-Unit Play. Take North Carolina (-3.5) over Gonzaga AND Take Louisville (-4) over Arizona

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NSA

20* Louisville -9
20* Syracuse +1
20* Michigan St -1
10* Gonzaga +8.5
10* New York +5
10* Memphis +3

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ATS LOCK CLUB

8 units Mich St -1
3 units Syracuse +1
3 units Louisville -9

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Lenny Del Genio

Sweet 16 Game of the Year

Play on Michigan State. Spartans HC Izzo has dominated lower seeded teams in his tenure at East Lansing, going 22-3 SU all time. With this short a number, that's all we need to know here. This is also a regular season rematch as the Spartans won 75-62 in East Lansing back on January 10th. They led the game 37-18 at the half. Kansas shot just 40% and was outrebounded by 11. That being said, they actually outshot Michigan State in the game, which is frightening if you're a Jayhawks fan. Both KU stars - Collins and Aldrich - played 36 minutes. No key contributor for Michigan State played more than 29. The Big 10's negative rap does not apply to Michigan State. Kansas is a team that has overacheived. The Spartans are the more veteran team. As a neutral court favorite of six points or less, they have covered six straight. They have also covered six straight vs. Big 12 teams.

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Tim Trushel

20* NBA Over/Under GOY

OK City / Toronto Over 201

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Beat Your Bookie

100* Play North Carolina (-8.5) over Gonzaga (NCAA)

North Carolina is 16-0 SU in non-conference games this season
North Carolina is 11-0 SU when playing their 2nd game in 8 days
North Carolina is 12-1 SU coming off an UNDER the total
North Carolina is 28-4 SU when playing as a favorite this season


100* Play Kansas (+1.5) over Michigan State (NCAA)

Kansas is 8-0 SU when playing on a Friday
Kansas is 7-0 SU when revenging a loss vs. an opponent
Kansas is 6-0 SU after scoring 60 points or less
Kansas is 3-0 SU when playing as a neutral court underdog


100* Play Oklahoma (-1) over Syracuse (NCAA)

Oklahoma is 16-1 SU in non-conference games this season
Oklahoma is 14-2 SU coming off an OVER the total this season
Oklahoma is 22-3 SU when playing as a favorite this season
Oklahoma is 8-0 SU after allowing 65 points or less in two consecutive games

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