TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAY
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAY
6 Unit Play. NBA Total of the Month. Take Under 207.5 between Golden State @ San Antonio Spurs
We hit a big play in cbb yesterday and hopefully that translates into a big play win for us in the nba today. It's been a while since I released a big play in the NBA as I'm not the type of person to release many big plays, but I feel like my research has yielded a potential golden nugget, why not step out? It's a long betting season and our standard wager is 4* and today it is a 6*. It just depends on what presents itself for us to step out or not and today I believe we have a nice spot to do so. The Spurs host the Warriors today and the Spurs come off back to back losses to both Houston and Boston by 2 and 3 points respectively. This team is obviously a bit peeved and the way they show their frustration is through defense. The Spurs have quietly gone under in their last 5 games and 7 of their last 10. They just held the Rockets to 85 points (Under 177) and the Celtics to 77 points (Under 183). Prior to that they held the Timberwolves to under (189.5), Phoenix to 98 points (game totaled at 201) and Charlotte to 78 points (game totaled at 178). Now, they face a Golden State team that is very competent and capable. But, this team struggles against strong defenses on the road. Remember, GS only put up 88 at Chicago, 91 at Detroit and 89 at New Orleans. The Warriors have solid depth but they will be without Biedrins, Crawford and Belinelli is questionable. The last time these two teams met the Spurs won in overtime and that game totaled 215 in overtime and totaled and 190 in regulation. So, for the fact that game totaled 190 in regulation in Golden State, and the fact that this total is set at 207.5 when the Spurs come off back to back home losses is significant. I expect the Spurs to likely give up no more than 90 points to the Warriors today while the put up points in the low 100's likely. I have this game at 193 or so which is a double-digit differential to where the total stands now. The under is 6-0 when the Warriors play a team with a winning home record of more than 60% - meaning when the Warriors play good teams on the road, they hold serve with sound defense against this team. The Under is 5-0 for the Spurs following a straight up loss and the Under is 6-0 for the Spurs when they face a team with winning % less than 40% meaning the Spurs take their anger out well with sound defense off a loss and against weaker teams they play even better defense. Plus, this is a sound public fade which adds a bit of an icing on the cake for us as well. We have quite a bit of factors working for us and it is a long week, but I believe we have a strong shot at a cover for the under here.
4 Unit Play. Take Florida -10.5 over Penn State
I'm glad we were able to cash with our 5* selection yesterday on the over between Richmond vs. Charleston. Although, I wish we could have cashed on the secondary play with Belmont who covered the entire game and fell short in the end. We still made some money on Monday and it's a long week. As per today, as you know I follow the Big10 and the SEC closely - both for basketball and football. This is an awful lot of points for a Big 10 team in Penn State and the public seems to agree to a tune of 65%. What you have is what folks will talk about today as a Big10 clash vs. the SEC. Penn State had it fairly easy early in defeating George Mason and Rhode Island at home (both good teams - but both who they faced at home) - as they defeated a top 90 team and a top 75 team. Now, they face a top 30 team in Florida on the road. Remember Penn State lost to Ohio State by 14, Purdue by 14, Michigan by 20 and Minnesota by 20. Florida has played 5 straight unders and Penn State has played 5 of 6 overs. This goes to show that Penn State's offense has been sound at home but on the road they stagger on offense. Plus, their defense is not as sound right now while Florida's defense is solid currently and they are playing great basketball at home. Heck, Florida just beat a solid Miami team at home by 14 who is ranked in the top 40. This team also beat a Jacksonville team at home by 22. Why can't this team beat a Penn State team who is at best as good as Miami and cover the -10.5? Nick C. is considering the NBA draft as a Gator and I would expect him to have a big game today and this puts Billy D on the national spotlight again as one of the two games that is highlighted in the nation today. I expect Florida to take advantage of this situation and be able to produce plenty of fireworks on offense today. Remember, Florida puts up on average 77.5 points per game and they just dropped 74 on a Miami team that plays great defense. If Miami was only able to score 60 on Florida's defense, than Penn State is really going to struggle. Remember, once again, this team put up just 51 points at Michigan, 44 at Wisconsin, 47 at Purdue, 59 at Ohio State and 59 at Minnesota. I have this game around a 76-62 type of ball game as the Gators barely hit the cover, but do so while the majority of the public takes it up the chin a bit here. Remember, it is always a decent bet to fade a public underdog. The Nittany Lions are 1-5 ATS as road underdogs of late and Florida is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAY
15* 'Garden Party' Showdown-NIT
My 15* play is on Auburn at 7:00 ET. Scott Drew took over a Baylor program decimated by the abuses of former head coach Dave Bliss. However, in his fifth season at Waco (last year), he led the Bears to 21-wins, as the Bears qualified for the "Big Dance" for the first time since 1988. Much was expected from Baylor this year and the Bears were 12-1 through the end of December, with their only loss coming to Wake Forest (Demon Deacons would open 16-0). However, things fell apart quickly, as the team would go just 5-11 in the Big 12, losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games. The Bears then surprised everyone with a great run in the Big 12 tourney. Beating Nebraska came as no surprise but the Bears then knocked of Kansas and Texas (ending a 24-game losing streak to the Longhorns), before falling to Missouri in the title game. The Bears have FIVE double-digit scorers, guards Jerrells (16.11-4.7-4.8), Dunn (15.4-4.7), Carter (10.6-2.5-3.2) and Dugat (10.0-3.3-2.3) plus the 6-9 Rogers (12.5-7.5). Acy (5.6-3.8) is a 6-7 freshman who has helped some inside but neither big man, the 7-0 Lomers (3.3-1.7) nor the 7-1 Diene (1.7-1.6), is capable of much. Baylor escaped in the NIT's first round with a two-point win over Georgetown but then won impressively 84-66 at Va Tech on Saturday. Six players scored double digits in that game, as the Bears shot 61.7 percent from the floor, including 10-of-21 on threes. Points will not come as easily tonight at Auburn. Jeff Lebo struggled in his first four years with the Tigers, as Auburn was able to go just 57-64. However, things came together this year, although as everyone knows, the SEC did not have a "banner year" in the 2008-09 season. That being said, after going 14-16 (4-12 in the SEC) last year, the Tigers went 10-6 in league play and after a win over Florida and then a loss to Tennessee in the SEC tourney, were 22-11 with an RPI of 63. It wasn't good enough for an at-large bid and the Tigers find themselves in the NIT. However, Lebo's team cannot be too disappointed. The Tigers, like the Bears, are a perimeter-based team, as FOUR of the team's six players who get 24 minutes or more of playing time are guards. Reed (13.2-2.6-3.8) and Waller (12.2) are the top scorers on the perimeter, joined by Barrett (9.7-3.4) and Robertson (6.0-3.9-3.1). Sullivan (7.5) is also a backcourt contributor, logging almost 20 minutes per game (19.2). The frontcourt features the 6-7 Barber (12.9-9.5) and the 6-6 Hargrove (8.1-5.0). While Baylor's Big 12 tourney run and easy win at Va Tech give one pause, the fact is the Bears were just 3-8 SU on the road this year and even with the team's recent splurge, are a sad 11-17 ATS. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 21-7 ATS, which is the best pointspread mark in the nation. Auburn went 18-3 SU at home, going 11-3 ATS and winning all seven non-lined home games. Auburn's a solid defensive club (65.1 PPG / 40.5 percent on opponents' FGs) and has the perimeter depth to match up with the Bears. Let's note that the Tigers enter this game on an 11-2 SU and ATS run. Auburn routed Tulsa 74-55, despite the team's best player (Barber) being limited to just 13 minutes due to foul trouble (that doesn't figure to happen again). Expect the Tigers to win here and head off to a "Garden Party" in New York next Tuesday. 15* Auburn.
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