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FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
3-Unit Play Take Indiana +1 Over Dallas
The Pacers should have Troy Murphy back in the fold tonight and we feel this is the spot where they get back on track tonight. This team plays well at home and had won six straight here before two losses to tough teams. The Mavs have lost three straight on the road and seven of their last nine. The Mavs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings in Indiana and the home team is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
5-Unit Game of the Week Take New York -9 ½ Over Sacramento
4-Unit Play Take Sacramento/New York UNDER 225 ½
These teams met once this season already, in Sacramento, and the Knicks won by 24 and this Kings team was more stacked them before they had their firesale to the Bulls. The Kings have had all sorts of problems scoring lately and this team has been blown out by an average of 19 points in their last two games. Their main threat for a big game, Kevin Martin, is questionable tonight and we just don’t see any way the Kings can keep up with the Knicks tonight in a game that we think will be another blowout. This Sacramento team really struggles offensively on the road and we think that will continue tonight as they are shorthanded. The Knicks have had a very road-heavy schedule lately and we think this is the perfect chance for a break-out game. New York has covered four of their last five and we think they continue to stay hot ATS tonight.
3-Unit Play Take Oklahoma City +5 ½ Over Utah
Oklahoma City has dominated this series ATS, cashing in 10 of the last 14 meetings. The underdog is also 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Last time these teams met in OKC the Thunder got a 20+ point win and I am sure they remember the drubbing they got on a recent visit to Utah and have had this game circled on their calendar. Utah has lost three straight road games and although OKC has been in a bit of a slump they have had a real tough schedule and we think they keep this one real close with a chance for the straight up win.
3 Unit Play. Take Buffalo -105 over Philadelphia
Things are looking bleak in Buffalo with the Sabres sitting five points out of the eight spot with just twelve games left on the schedule. In the last week Buffalo has lost to Ottawa and Atlanta, while bad for a team fighting for a playoff spot both teams are playing the best hockey they have all season. Philadelphia on the other hand is going to be in the playoffs but I think this team has some issue as well, losers of three of the last four and blowing a 2-0 lead in Detroit the other night comes into Buffalo having beating this Sabres three times this year including on March 10 in Philadelphia where the game was tied going into the third before Philadelphia chased Buffalo goalie Lalime after three quick goals. From what I read Buffalo had a hard practice on Wednesday after losing to Ottawa the night before and had what the team called a "fun day" yesterday. While I don't think Buffalo is a playoff team I do think they will be relax and fresh to play this game, the Flyers on the other hand have been juggling their lines and in my opinion are to thin in the defense area to go deep in the playoffs and I don't think they should be listed as a small favorite here tonight.
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Cornell (+12') vs Missouri (146') @ Boise
Cornell is back in the Big Dance for a second straight year after bowing to Stanford in the opening round in 2008. Meanwhile, Missouri is dancing for the first time in six years and the Big Red will draw upon their experience from a year ago to control tempo in this one and stay inside this big number. Look for Cornell to frustrate the Tigers, who did not play their best basketball outside of Columbia this season. I like DeMarre Carroll’s game, but I see the Tigers getting flustered by Cornell’s patient and deliberate attack. This is a good Ivy League team that with Ryan Wittman (son of former NBA player and coach Randy Wittman) can drain some treys. The Big Red are 16-8 ATS as a dog and have covered 12 of their last 19 non-conference games. Coach Steve Donahue and the Big Red were happy to make it to the party last year, this time they want to move on. They won’t claim the outright, but Cornell will prove to be a pesky thorn as no way Missouri covers this sizeable spread.
CORNELL (+12') 2500 Dime High Roller
Portland State (+10') vs Xavier (135) @ Boise
The Big Sky Conference champs have won at Gonzaga and lost by just one at Washington this year and Portland State will stay inside this number against an Xavier club that dropped two of its last three and went just 5-5 SU in its last 10. The Muskateers are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven away from home and while they’re a nice club, they’re missing a key componant as they don’t have a reliable point guard to orchestrate the team’s offense. The same cannot be said of the Vikings with senior floor general Jeremiah Dominguez, one of four serious three-point threats on the team. Andre Murray can also drain the trey and Portland State made 309 from behind the arc this year. They’ve won six straight overall and are 3-0 ATS this year on seven or more days rest. The Vikings will give Xavier all it can handle in staying inside this price tonight.
PORTLAND STATE (+10') 2500 Dime High Roller
Roert Morris (+16') vs Michigan State (132) @ Minneapolis
Quite frankly this is too many points for this erratic Michigan State offense to cover and Robert Morris will stay inside this bloated number. Michigan State just hasn’t been the same since leader Raymar Morgan went down with walking pneumonia in mid-January. He’s scored seven or fewer points in six of his eight games since back and clearly is not the player he was before he got sick. MSU is just 4-10 ATS when laying more than 12 ½ points on a neutral court and this guard-oriented Colonial team has won five straight on the scoreboard and has held eight straight foes to 64 points or less. Senior do-everything guard Jeremy Chappell will bring his best to this one and the 24-win Colonials will keep this one close.
ROBERT MORRIS (+16') 2500 Dime High Roller
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2* (Top Play) Wisconsin Badgers (+) vs Florida State
In a 12 vs 5 match-up, you would not expect to see a line this low. Also, Florida State won 25 games this season while the Badgers won just 19. Additionally, the ACC is held in higher regard than the Big Ten. So, what’s with this line? It’s all about the match-ups! Wisconsin, under Coach Bo Ryan is very difficult to prepare for when you’re not use to seeing them. That is the concern for Florida State in this match-up. No matter how much you try to emulate what their offense does – in practice – it’s still not the same as dealing with it in live game action. We have a strong feeling here that the Badgers offense is going to give Florida State a lot of trouble. So, both defenses come in, deservedly, receiving a lot of respect. However, only one, Wisconsin, is likely to be successful in their match-ups here. The Seminoles defense is going to get thrown out of whack by the unusual way in which the Badgers offense operates. It’s unconventional and it can be a headache for opponents. Wisconsin has built up some nice momentum heading into the Big Dance. After an ugly 2-6 run in January, they rebounded nicely and ended up in fourth place in the Big Ten. They play a very stingy man-to-man defense and they ended up with some of the top defensive numbers in the country. Their defense is absolutely going to frustrate the Noles in this match-up. Note that the Badgers went 14-1 this season when they limited their opponents to 60 points or less and we can honestly see that coming here. Even though the Seminoles have good size, Marcus Landry is a very strong post defender. Also, on the perimeter, the Badgers have frustrated opponents into making just 32% of their shots from three point land this season. We look for Coach Ryan to hold a significant “X’s and O’s edge” over Florida State Coach Leonard Hamilton. Also, this is the Noles first trip to the Big Dance in over ten years and they just don’t have true “tournament experience” under their belts. Also, guard Toney Douglas is a senior and a fantastic scorer but, other than Douglas and Uche Echefu, the Seminoles rely very heavily on freshman and sophomores. This is a weakness as they face a Badgers team that went to the Sweet Sixteen last season. The Badgers have two juniors, Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon, as well as two seniors, Joe Krabbenhoft and Landry, that they rely heavily on. There is a wealth of experience with these players and their sophomore players also gained valuable experience with last year’s post-season run. The Noles will be the “trendy choice” here but when you factor in tactical match-ups as well as experience, Florida State is very likely to get frustrated here and we foresee a “traditional” 12 vs 5 upset here! Play Wisconsin plus the points as a Top Play selection.