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TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4 Unit Play. Take the Los Angeles Clippers +11 over the Cleveland Cavaliers
Glad we were able to cash with Portland +2 Outright over the Lakers in an easy cash. Let's focus and cash today's winner with the Clippers +11 today. There is a specific reason why I waited to release this play as the line opened up at +9 and has moved to +11 which is beautiful. Who is to say that it doesn't move up to +11.5, so just wait around until game time. For starters, I think the public gets buried today as 73% are on the Cavs. But why? "Oh, the Cavs are so great, they are awesome, unbeileveable, fabulous, blah, blah, blah". This is the same nonsense that got the Lakers backers buried last night as they took it up the backside on the road at Portland. Now, I'm not saying the Cavs lose SU here. But, I am saying we have a great shot at a cover here. Remember, this is the same Clippers team that defeated the Celtics at home. This is the same Clippers team that beat the Warriors at home and was leading by 13 against the Pacers at home in their last game to lose by a point. On top of that, this is the same Clippers team that was tied on the road at Cleveland at the half 54-54. That's right, tied 54-54 as 15 Point Underdogs. Now, having said that, Cleveland came back in the second half and beat this team 17 as they hit the cover late. Now, some key differences. Zach Randolph did not play that game for the Clippers and Baron Davis only played 23 Minutes - plus that game was in the Cleveland where the Cavs get every call. This game is in L.A, Randolph is back, Baron specifically rested for this game which is why he sat out the Pacer game and Eric Gordon will once again play in this contest. Oh, and I almost forgot, Al Thornton will be playing this game as well! How big is Thornton? How about the fact he played 43 minutes in the last contest agains the Pacers and dropped 22 points and grabbed 9 boards. In short, we have Thornton back, Zach back, we are in L.A., the Clippers know they can play with this team as they were tied at the half last time and a rested Baron Davis - let's Roll baby! The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings beteween these two teams of late.
4 Unit Play. Take the North Dakota State Bisons -4 over Oakland
Before I forget, do note, that I will be making more than 1 selection per day during the Madness as I step out more during this time as we lead up to the Dance and during the Dance. This is when you just let it ride given what you know and what you've followed. When you make Selections for the Madness, in the early goings, favorites rule. This is what i have traked over the past few years and for a dog play like myself usually, it's a bit irritating. Granted, although we had Portland +2 in the NBA which was an Outright winner essentially early on, I was still upset at Charleston given that every other favorite covered that night it seemd with VCU, Western Kentuck, Gonzaga and Siena - although South Alabama did cover. So, favorites won yesterday to a tune of 4-2. This is usually the case in conference tournaments. Such is the case today as we take North Dakota State -4 on the relative cheap today. The Bisons are a strong team. This team is 25-6 and they do play on the court of South Dakota State today which is essentially a semi-home game as Oakland will not have as much of a fan base there. This team has relative comfort in playing in South Dakota as they defeated even South Dakota State by 10 in overtime this year. Why can they not beat Oakland in a semi-home game this year? In many ways, this game reminds me of the VCU vs. George Mason game yesterday. The public does like VCU, that was basically a semi-home game for them, they were laying similar small chalk, were the better team during the regular season and was the much better free throw shooting team. North Dakota State shoot 74.1% from the charity stripe, are a well disciplined team that lost to Oakland by 1 on the road this year to then beat them by 10 at home this year. Oakland is a good looking team and they have played a tough non-conference schedule. In fact, Oakland has looked very strong in the early goings of the Summitt Tournament defeating IUPUI Fort Wayne and South Dakota State. Having said that, I will lay it on the line with North Dakota State as our play given their strength from the line, the fact that it is a semi-home game and the Bison are 6-1 ATS over their last 7 games overall. Let's take the more disciplined team as we look to step out later this week with more college hoops selections per day.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
WEBER STATE (-11 ½) over Montana State
Weber State was upset at home by Montana State on January 15th, but the Wildcats have won 12 consecutive games since then and they’ve covered the spread in their last 10 outings, including a 20 point revenge win at Montana State last Tuesday. Montana State applies to a negative 34-79-6 ATS situation tonight and my ratings favor Weber State by 12 ½ points on their home floor using all games for the entire season. However, I’d favor the Wildcats by 16 points using only their conference games. Montana State has covered 7 straight as a dog of 7 points or more, which will keep me from making this game a Best Bet, but I’ll lean with Weber State at -12 points or less.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
2 Star Selection
Dallas (+6) over PHOENIX
The Mavericks and Suns have split their two games this season, with Dallas winning the first meeting by 15 points and the Phoenix winning the most recent match-up by 28 points. That 28 point thrashing sets up the Mavericks in a very good 50-11-3 ATS humiliation revenge situation tonight and the line is a bit high in this game. The Suns appeared to be a better team when they fired coach Terry Porter and went back to their up-tempo style that had been so successful in recent years, but the season ending injury to All-Star F Amare Stoudemire has hurt the Suns a bit and most of their recent wins have come against bad teams. After starting the Alvin Gentry era with blowout wins over the Clippers twice and Oklahoma City, the Suns are just 3-6 straight up since and my ratings favor the Suns by just 4 points using their games without Stoudemire against the Mavericks’ 18 games this season without Josh Howard, who is also out for this game. I also get 4 points using the Mavericks’ games without Howard against all the Suns games this season with point guard Steve Nash playing, so a line of Phoenix by 6 appears to be much too high. I’ll take Dallas in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more.2-Stars at +5 or more.
4 Star Selection
BUTLER (-5 ½) over Cleveland State
Butler had a tough time with Cleveland State this season, as both of the Bulldogs’ victories were by just 2 points. However, Butler made just 10 of their 37 3-point shots in those 2 games (27%) and converted on only 18 of 34 free-throws, which is pretty random considering that Butler has made 36% of their 3-pointers for the season and is a very good free-throw shooting team (72.5%). Cleveland State is a good defensive team, but they allowed 33% 3-point shooting to teams that combine to averaged 34% long range shooting and my math model projects 34.5% 3-point shooting for Butler after factoring in Cleveland State’s defense. Butler would have won the two games against Cleveland State by an average of 8 points had the Bulldogs and Vikings both shot their expected percentage from 3-point range and the free-throw line and Butler should win this game at home by more than 6 points. My ratings favor Butler by 9 points and the Bulldogs apply to a very strong 29-1 ATS conference tournament home team situation that won for us last week with Wright State over Valparaiso and they also apply to a very strong 52-9-1 ATS conference tournament final game situation that won last night with Gonzaga. That same situation also applied to Butler last year in a 70-55 win as a 9 point favorite over Cleveland State in the finals of this tournament. Cleveland State is without one of their best players in guard D’Aundrey Brown, who not only shot 51% from the floor this season, but also grabbed an average of 5.7 rebounds (excellent for a guard) and averaged 1.7 steals per game. Brown missed some time in the middle of the season and Cleveland State struggled as the visitor without him, losing at Wright State by 9 points after losing Brown 12 minutes into the game and the Vikings also lost by 15 at Green Bay and lost and failed to cover at Milwaukee and Youngstown. That’s 0-4 straight up and ATS as the road team without Brown and overall the Vikings played about 1 ½ points worse in 10 games without Brown this season and that is certainly not factored into this line. I lost a Best Bet on Butler -7 against Cleveland State on February 28th, but that loss was a function of random negative variance, as Butler made just 3 of 16 3-pointers and only 9 of 21 foul shots in that game instead of the 5 to 6 3-pointers and 15 free-throws that they should have made in that game. Butler would have covered that game had they simply made their normal 72% from the line instead of 43% - even with the poor 3-point shooting. In this meeting at Butler the spread is one point lower than it was a few weeks ago and Cleveland State is without one of their most effective players, so this is an even better bet. I’ll take Butler in a 4-Star Best Bet at -6 or less, for 3-Stars from -6 ½ to -8 and for 2-Stars at -8 ½ or -9.4-Stars at -6 or less, 3-Stars from -6 1/2 to -8, 2-Stars at -8 1/2 or -9.
3 Star Selection
Western Kentucky (-4) over South Alabama
Western Kentucky applies to a very good 110-36-4 ATS conference tournament situation that is 42-12-2 ATS in the final, and my ratings favor the Hilltoppers by 4 ½ points – so the line is fair. I’ll take Western Kentucky in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 2-Stars at -4 ½ or -5 points.3-Stars at -4 or less, 2-Stars at -4 1/2 or -5.
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