Monday Service Plays

Re: Monday Service Plays

BEN BURNS

New York Rangers @ Carolina Hurricanes
PICK: Under

Both teams have been involved in some high-scoring games recently. That doesn't mean that we'll see more fireworks tonight though.

The Hurricanes have seen the 'under' go 11-7-5 the past few seasons, after playing three or more consecutive games which finished above the total. During the same stretch, the Rangers saw the 'under' go 12-4-1, after playing three or more consecutive games which finished above the total. Its also worth mentioning that the 'under' is 27-14-4 the last 45 times New York played the second of back to back games.

Eight of the last 10 meetings in this series produced five combined goals or less, including both this season - the only two which finished with more than that both landed on six. With tonight's over/under line at 5.5, consider a play on the Under.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Houston at Denver
Pick: Denver -4

The Nuggets are just 3-7 in their last 10 games, and on the surface look like a fading team. A closer look shows that six of the seven losses were on the road, and the home loss was to Boston. The fact is the Nuggets are 14-3 in their last 17 home games. Houston's Achilles heel has been playing on the road as they sport just a 14-17 mark on the season. They are becoming unbeatable at home where they have won 12 straight, but the road is a completely different story. They are just 4-11 on the road in their last 15 games and that goes back to before Christmas. The Nuggets are playing their third game in four nights - usually the death knell for teams in the NBA, but the Nuggets have thrived to a 21-9 ATS mark in this situation, and I'll lay the points and go with the Nuggets here.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

GREG SHAKER

George Mason Patriots at VCU Rams
Play: Under 121.5

It is Tournament time and during these games, especially Conference matchups where squads know each other very well, we see lower scoring contests. That has been the case for George Mason and VCU this year with both playing a couple of UNDERS and both doig so by going well UNDER the Posted mark. We have 2 very good D's on the court for this one as they are ranked #55 and #59 in the country in D Efficiency, and we also have a Patriots team that has an extraordinary slow pace at #301 out of 344 Division 1A Schools. While the Rams are known to whoop it up on the court occasionally, they are playing much closer to the vest now, and proved that with 61-53 effort yesterday verses ODU, who plays a similar style as they will see today. As most good D Teams do, these teams have thrived in recent play down the stretch with both limiting opponents to at or less than 36%shooting over their last 5 games. Mason is limiting their foes to just 57 over this span and VCU even better, at just 53. We simply are not going to see any kind of major activity tonight when they hit the court and the liklihood of less than 100 shots taken is very good indeed. If that happens, this number will not be obtained. I would play this one down to 118.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Rocketman

Orlando @ Detroit 
Play: Detroit +2

I think the Pistons are a better team without Allen Iverson.  At first thought, when the Nuggets traded Billups to the Pistons for Iverson, I thought the Pistons were getting the better deal here.  Billups is a great ball player but Iverson is "The Answer" isn't he?  Turns out that Iverson wasn't "The Answer" the Pistons were looking for in my opinion.  The Pistons are only 31-30 this year but they have won 4 of their last 5 overall winning 2 of the last 3 without "The Answer."   Detroit is getting into must win basketball to stay ahead of some teams for making the playoffs.  They are 3 1/2 games from falling out of the playoff race.  Detroit is 16-3 SU overall vs Orlando the past 3 years including 9-1 SU at home vs Orlando the past 3 seasons.  We'll recommend a small play on Detroit tonight! 

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Craig Trapp

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers  -2

Well all else is crazy in CBB with March Madness but the NBA still has several weeks left with all the teams fighting for seeding in the Playoffs.

This game features the best two individual perimeter players in the west with Kobe vs Roy. Last time LA went to Portland they were upset and Roy went off for 50+ points. Kobe is not one to be outdone and when he is motivated he can be very dangerous. Look for Kobe to guard ROY one on one and on the other end he will go for 40+ pts.

Lakers when in a revenge game no trends needed in this one Kobe is motivated and will lead his team to easy win. SCORE LAL 99 - POR 89

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Dennis Macklin

Vancouver Canucks at Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: Vancouver Canucks

The raging Canucks have won four straight and twelve of fourteen. The Kings have won two straight after 1-7 funk but face Canuck stonewall defense that has allowed just five goals in their last five games. Kings are a nice young team whose future is in front of them but their 1-4 L5 record versus Canucks doesn't figure to improve here. Take the Canucks.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Yankee Capper

Lakers/Trailblazers Over 202

Gonzaga -7

Rangers/Hurricanes Under 5.5

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Nick Parsons

Toronto @ Ottawa
Play: Toronto

It's looking more and more like the NHL playoffs will not visit Ontario for the first time since before the Ottawa Senators were established, but that won't stop the Toronto Maple Leafs as they attempt to continue their recent dominance of their provincial rivals. Toronto had earned at least a point in eight straight games (5-0-3) before its 4-1 home loss to Edmonton on Saturday night, a stretch that includes an active, season-high four-game road winning streak; and I expect another big effort this evening! Ottawa is just 5-11 its last 16 vs. division opponents; play on Toronto!

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Nuggets -3.5

The motivation was there, but the Nuggets fell flat on the road again last night to give up first place in the division standings for the first time in a long time. Just how bad was last night's loss for Denver? Carmelo Anthony called it the worst one of the season based on how they played in comparison to how important it was to get a road win. Now the motivation is really there for Denver and I like this team to respond at home against a team that has beaten them in back-to-back games. Both of those losses were at Houston, not surprisingly. The Nuggets were a 3.5-point favorite at home earlier this season against the Rockets and won by 10 points. I suspect seeing their team name in second place will trigger a very strong effort tonight against a team which has struggled on the road. Houston has lost 5 of its last 6 on the road. The Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Lay the number with the Nuggets.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Siena -3.5

The Saints defeated Niagara 82-65 at home earlier this season and will have home court on their side again in the MAAC title game tonight. Niagara defeated Siena in the last meeting at Niagara 100-85 and all that loss does is fuel Siena's fire here. Siena is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS at home against Niagara the last 3 seasons and 15-5 ATS in the last 20 lined games in this matchup. Siena returns all 5 starters from a team a team which crushed Vandy in the Big Dance a season ago and it believes it can make a deeper run in '09. Anything less than a win here will be considered a major disappointment for the Saints. We'll lay this small number.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Jack Jones

Washington Wizards vs. Minnesota Timberwolves    
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5

Both Minnesota and Washington are bad, but I'll go with the Wolves tonight here are coming off a two point loss in Portland on Saturday night and get to play this game at home. Washington has lost five straight and the last two games at San Antonio and Dallas have come by a minimum of 16 points. I know the Wolves haven't been playing well without Al Jefferson, but this young squad needs a win and going against a Washington team that has been worse than they are gives them a solid chance. Minnesota should be motivated here since they have dropped three straight to Washington, but those were against better Wizards teams. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points when they are revenging a loss to an opponent who scored more than 110 points against them when that team is coming off a double digit loss. 69-36 (65.7%) since 1996.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Jeff Benton

Got a frustrating push with yesterday’s free play on Duke at North Carolina (the Blue Devils were covering for 39 of 40 minutes in that game). We’ll try again Monday by backing St. Mary’s plus the points against Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference championship game from Las Vegas.

Certainly when you look at Saturday’s results, Gonzaga was clearly the more impressive team, destroying Santa Clara 94-59 as a 14½-point favorite, after which the Gaels struggled to put away Portland 71-61 as an 8½-point chalk. However, Portland’s a much better team than Santa Clara, so I wouldn’t take too much away from what happened Sunday.

Rather, I prefer to look at how Gonzaga struggled in two wins over St. Mary’s earlier this season. On Jan. 29, the Bulldogs won 69-62 but didn’t cover as a 9½-point favorite, but lost in the final score is the fact that St. Mary’s had a 39-33 halftime lead, then lost its heart and soul – point guard Patty Mills – to a broken wrist early in the second half. (More on Mills in a second). Without their playmaker, the Gaels fell flat down the stretch, but still cashed. Then on Dec. 12, with Mills in street clothes, St. Mary’s took Gonzaga to the wire before losing 72-70, once again covering the spread, this time as a four-point home underdog.

Back to Mills. After a five-week layoff to heal his injury, the sophomore from Australia returned to action last night, and although he was expectedly rusty (3-for-12 shooting, three turnovers), he did finish with 12 points and played 35 minutes, and he was much better in the second half (no turnovers) than in the first. (Not coincidentally, the game was tied at the break and St. Mary’s outscored Portland by 10 points in the final 20 minutes.)

Bottom line: Mills, who averages 18.8 points and 4 assists per game, gave St. Mary’s a big-time emotional spark last night. And with a game under his belt and fully confident that his wrist is OK, I expect Mills to be at his best tonight. If he his, the Gaels not only will cover against Gonzaga for the fifth time in six meetings, they’ll challenge for the outright upset! Take the points.

4♦ ST. MARY'S

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Jake Timlin

Today's Selection

Awful matchup between a pair of bad teams, but given that Minnesota is really bad right now I say take Washington plus the points. You see for the Timberwolves their season turned south the day they lost their best player in Jefferson as Minnesota has dropped 11 of their last 12 games.  Even worst the Timberwolves have lost 14 of their last 15 games overall to really stink it up.  Meanwhile, for Washington despite not being good either they at least can hang their cap on the fact that they have won and covered the past 6 series meetings, including a 8 point win at home just a few weeks ago.  So in a game that one team has to win I look for the Wizards to get the road win here as the Timberwolves continue to loss.

All Washington plus the points!

PICK: Washington Wizards

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Re: Monday Service Plays

GINA

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat

The Bulls have struggle on the road. Chicago has lost their last four road games, just 10-23 away from home this season and has lost seventeen of the last 22 in South Beach. Go with the Heat at home. Miami has won and covered the first two meetings with Chicago this season.

Miami Heat -5


Johnny Guild

New Orleans Hornets at Atlanta Hawks

The Hornets have won seven straight games, nine of its last 12 and are 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread in their last four clashes at Philips Arena. Take the Hornets and Chris Paul to sting the Hawks in Atlanta.

New Orleans Hornets -1.5

NCAAB

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -4.5


Mr A

New Orleans Hornets -1½
Miami Heat -5
Houston Rockets +3½

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Re: Monday Service Plays

EZWINNERS.COM FREE SELECTION


Game: Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets


OVER 198.5 TOTAL POINTS


Four out of the last six meetings between these two teams have gone over the total and tonight's match up is another good spot for a lot of scoring. These will be two tired teams and when a team is tired their defense usually slacks off. Both of these teams played yesterday and Denver is playing their fourth game in five nights while Houston is playing their third game in four nights. Look for this one to cruise over the total.



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Re: Monday Service Plays

Rob Homyak

5 units on Denver Nuggets

The Rockets defeated Memphis 93-83 as a 14-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (196).

Yao Ming scored 24 points to go along with 17 rebounds for Houston, while Luis Scola added 18 points and 14 rebounds in the win.

The Nuggets lost to Sacramento 114-106 as a 9-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (214.5).

Carmelo Anthony led Denver with 32 points and Chauncey Billups delivered 22 points and eight assists.

Denver opens a four-game homestand, has won seven of eight at home and won three straight home games over the Rockets. Houston is 2-6 (3-5 ATS) in their last eight on the road, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.

The home team has won each of the last seven meetings between these two (5-2 ATS), including all three this season. The Nuggets are 8-4 ATS against Western Conference teams, 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records and 6-1 ATS at home against teams with losing road record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Tommy the Swami

DEN / HOU Over 198

Decent OVER opportunity in this matchup with both teams off games on Sunday, leaving them with the tired legs that suffer the most on defense. If we look at Denver, we can see that fatigue hurts their defense, as the Nuggets are - 22-5 OVER playing thier 4th gm in 5 nites. Denver als OVER 5 of thier 7 gms this season as a 3.5 to 6 pt host.Nice fit as the Rockets are OVER 3 of their 4 as 3.5 to 6 pt road dog. Houston has gone Under 2 straight games just TWICE  thru their last 25 games. Houst also OV 9-4 after allowing 85 or less - OV 14-7 off a 10(+) pt win- OV 9-5 vs the Northwest Div-  Series is also on a 3 -0 Over run.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Larry Ness

St. Mary's (Cal.) +7.5 vs Gonzaga

Gonzaga lost 66-65 to Utah on Dec 31 and the Bulldogs were just 8-4. However, their only loss in 2009 (Bulldogs are 17-1) came to Memphis (an ugly 68-50 one) but in case you aren't aware, the Tigers have won a nation-best 22 straight games. PG Pargo (9.3-3.6-5.1) was the WCC's player-of-the-year last season and distributes the ball to a trio of big guards, the 6-5 Bouldin (13.7-3.9-3.2), the 6-5 Gray (9.3) and the 6-8 Downs (9.1-4.3). Up front, it's the 6-11 Heytvelt (14.8-6.7) and the 6-11 Daye (13.1-6.9). Now everyone knows Gonzaga's record. The Bulldogs have won eight of the last 10 WCC tourney titles, losing only to San Diego in the 2003 and 2008 title games. With its 94-59 win on Sunday over Santa Clara, Gonzaga has now reached the WCC championship game for a 12th straight time! St Mary's last won the WCC tourney title back in 1997 and the Gaels have lost 25 of the last 28 meetings in this series, including six times in the WCC tourney. So why will it be any different tonight? It may not be but I still want the points. Guard Patty Mills (18.4) broke two bones in his right hand back on Jan 29, when St Mary's lost 69-62 at Gonzaga (Gaels were in control, prior to the injury). That loss saw the Gales go on a 1-4 slide but since winning on Feb 14, St Mary's has won six straight, including last night's 10-point win over Portland, in which Mills returned. The sophomore guard scored 12 points last night and I expect him to be even better tonight. St Mary's doesn't have Gonzaga's depth but in the 6-11 Samhan (13.6-9.3) and the terrific 6-7 Simpson (13.6-120.8), the Gaels can 'hang' with the Bulldogs. Gonzaga connected on a season-high 13 three-pointers last night and led by as many as 40 points. However, leading scorer Josh Heytvelt was held to a season-low three points and is averaging just 8.7 PPG over his last three games. Maybe I'm "spitting into the wind," but I'm taking the points.

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Re: Monday Service Plays

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

OTTAWA -1.5 (+150) over Toronto

Ya think the Leaf are out of gas right now as they have gone into OT in 7 of their last 9 games. Since a stretch o 7 straight OT games the Leafs have been able to manage just 3 games in their last 2 games. Now they must travel to Ottawa and face a team that has won by 2 goals or more in each of their last 7 wins. The Sens would also like revenge for a 43 OT loss to these same Leafs back on Feb 28th. Ottawa has scored 10 goals in their last 2 games and are facing a toronto team that allows 3.68 gpg on the road. The Sens will win this one easily.


2 UNIT PLAY

Ottawa/ Toronto Over 6

1 UNIT PLAY

Carolina -142 over NY Rangers


3 UNIT PLAY

Lakers/ Portland Over 202

The Over is 5-1 in Lakers last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points and 10-4-1 in their last 15 road games, while the Over is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, plus the Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Portland. In their last 19 games the Lakers have had 7 games with an OU line of 209 or less and the Over has hit in 5 of those games. During that stretch the Lakers have played 12 road games and the Over has gone 7-4-1 in those games, with an average OU line of 217.6. Laker road games have averaged 210.6 ppg overall and 219.1 ppg in their last 12 away from home. The Lakers offense has been top ntch this year as they are averaging 108.7 ppg overall and 108.3 ppg on the road. Tonight they will be facing a Portland team that allows just 95.2 ppg on the year, but they are just 22nd in the league in defensive FG% (46.5%), while the Lakers come in 4th in ffensive FG% (47.6%). Portland has allowed just 94 ppg in their last 5 games, but 48% shoting i that stretch. The Portlands offense has not been spectaular this year, as they average just 98.9 ppg overall, but at home this team does score 102. 4 ppg and the Lakers are not a great defensive team as they allow 100.4 ppg overall and 102.3 ppg on the road. LA also allows teams to shoot for 48.6% in their road games. No reason to think that both teams can't post over 100 points in this one and that should give us a comfortable win on the Over.


2 UNIT PLAY

Houston/ Denver Under 198

The Under is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 games playing on 0 days rest, while the Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. This has been a high scoring series of late, but I see a reversal tonight. The strong Denver offense has been having problems scoring of late, as they are averaging just 97 ppg in their last 6 games. Now they face a Houston team that is very strong defensively as they have allowed just 94.9 ppg overall and 92.4 ppg in their last 10 games. Denver just alllowed Sacramento 114 points, but they have still allowed just 96.7 ppg in their last 6 games. The Rockets offense has come alive of late, but this is still a team that averages just 97.4 ppg on the road. I see his game being played in the LOW 190's at best.   

ATLANTA +1.5 over New Orleans


1 UNIT PLAY

DETROIT +1.5 over Orlando

The Pistons are playing much better without The Answer and they should be able to grab this win vs an Orlando team that may have left it all on the court in their big win over the Celtics yesterday. 

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