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SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
East Coast Sports Enterprises
3 Units----Carolina -130
4 units --Memphis-7, LA Clippers-1
5 Units - Arizona +8, Cal +2, San Diego +9-
4 units - Over 150 Uconn, Over 141 James Madison, Over 123 Ball State, Over 154 Texas, Over 121 Old Dom, Over 140 Cornell, Over 139 Creighton ,
3 units - Over 143 BYU, Over 125 Butler
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
2 Star Selection
Drexel (-1) over WILLIAM & MARY
Drexel is a scrappy team that plays very good defense (39.5% FG allowed) and the Dragons are good enough to be 10-7 in Colonial Conference play, but they are not good enough to beat the good teams in the conference. William & Mary is not one of those good teams, as the Tribe find themselves only ahead of lowly NC Wilmington in the standings at 4-13 in league play with 3 of those 4 wins being against the other two horrible teams in the conference – Towson and NC Wilmington. The Tribe did spring one conference upset with a home win over Northeastern, but Tony Shaver’s team is just 32-53-1 ATS in conference games when not getting more than 11 points, including 5-10 ATS this season. That record is even worse when facing mediocre or good teams, as the Tribe are just 15-32-1 ATS in conference games against .400 teams or better when not getting more than 11 points. Drexel, meanwhile, is 13-2 ATS this season against teams with a win percentage of .625 or less and they are 9-1 straight up and 9-1 ATS against the 6 worst teams in the Colonial Conference (based on my ratings) – with the only loss being by only 3 points at Delaware (who is better than W&M). My ratings favor Drexel by 3 points and my match-up analysis favors the Dragons by 4 ½ points in this game. I’ll take Drexel in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.2-Stars at -1 or better.
2 Star Selection
TENN MARTIN (-7 ½) over Morehead State
Tennessee Martin struggled early in the season but the Skyhawks took flight when F Olajide Hay became eligible to play in mid-December. After starting the season 2-5 straight up and 2-4 ATS the Skyhawks have gone 18-3 straight up and 13-6 ATS with Hay in the lineup (13-4 ATS when not favored by more than 11 points). Morehead State also turned around their season and they’ve been much better in conference play than they were early in the season, but the Eagles haven’t been as good under coach Johnnie Tyndall when they’ve had less time to prepare for an opponent. Morehead is 24-12 ATS with 3 or more days off to prepare between games (9-3 ATS this season) and the Eagles are only 13-27 ATS with 2 or fewer days to prepare (6-8 ATS this season). My ratings favor UTM by 8 points using conference games only and the Skyhawks apply to a very good 214-109-9 ATS situation tonight. Morehead State beat Tenn Martin 80-71 in early December before Hay was playing for UTM, but the Skyhawks should get their revenge tonight. I’ll take Tennessee Martin in a 2-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less.2-Stars at -8 or less.
3 Star Selection
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT (+18) over St. Mary’s
Loyola Marymount is a horrible team, but the Lions have improved with the return of leading scorer Vernon Teal, who has averaged 16.9 points in the 12 games that he has started while leading the team in assists per game and collecting 1.4 steals per game. Loyola has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games and their win over San Francisco on Thursday should have them excited for their home finale tonight against an overrated St. Mary’s squad that is without top player Patty Mills (18.7 ppg, 3.9 apg and 2.4 steals). The Gaels have continued to play well at home, but they’ve struggled on the road without Mills – losing by 18 points at Portland, losing by 18 points at Santa Clara, and failing to cover in a 13 point win on Thursday against a horrible Pepperdine team. The line of 18 points in this game is what my ratings come up with using all games for both teams for the entire season, but St. Mary’s isn’t quite as good without Mills and Loyola is better with Teal in the lineup. My ratings favor St. Mary’s by only 14 points in this game using their games since February 5th (I did not include their first game without Mills, their 18 point loss at Portland, since they had no practice time to adjust to playing without Mills for that game) against the Lions’ games with Teal. In addition to the line value, Loyola applies to a 45-9-3 ATS big home underdog last home game angle that’s been good to me over the years. I’ll take Loyola Marymount in a 3-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more and for 2-Stars from +16 ½ to +15 points.3-Stars at +17 or more, 2-Stars down to +15.
Oklahoma City (+7 ½) over MEMPHIS
Oklahoma City will be without “star” Kevin Durant tonight and the line adjusted from Memphis being a 4 point favorite to the Grizzlies now being favored by 7 ½ points. If you ask me the line should have moved the other way, as Durant is the next coming of Allen Iverson, a supposed star that scores a lot of points but actually doesn’t help his team overall. The Thunder did just fine in 40 minutes last night without Durant and nearly beat the Mavericks in Dallas. There is no doubt that Durant is a great scorer and the Thunder are actually better offensively when he’s in the game (by about 3 ½ points per 48 minutes), but Durant doesn’t play any defense and Oklahoma City allows 1.11 points per possession when Durant is on the court and only 1.03 ppp when he is not on the floor. That’s a about 7 ½ points difference per game and it is no surprise to me that the Thunder are only out-scored by 3.2 points per 48 minutes when Durant is on the bench, compared to being out-scored by 7.0 points per 48 minutes when Durant is playing. A recent injury to Desmond Mason has hurt the Thunder and my ratings would favor the Grizzlies by 6 points in this game without adjusting for Durant’s absence. So there is line value on the side of the Thunder even if I don’t adjust their rating upwards without Durant. I’ll lean with the Thunder at +7 points or more and I’d take Oklahoma City in a 2-Star Best Bet at +8 points or more.
L.A. CLIPPERS (+1) over Charlotte
Charlotte is a pretty good team with Raja Bell and Gerald Wallace both in the lineup, but the Clippers are a pretty decent team when Zach Randolph and Marcus Camby both play – even though they sucked last night. The Clippers are 15-44 straight up and 24-35 ATS this season, but they are 10-11 straight up and 13-8 ATS in 21 games with both Randolph and Camby playing and my ratings favor the Clippers by 2 points in this game. I’ll lean with the Clippers based on the line value.
Saturday Night College Opinions
Tulsa (-6 ½) over SMU
SMU applies to a very negative 12-42-1 ATS subset of a 58-124-2 ATS home dog situation, but my ratings favor Tulsa by just 5.8 points and I’m not willing to give up the line value to make the Hurricane a Best Bet. I will, however, lean with Tulsa at -7 points or less.
IDAHO STATE (-6 ½) over Northern Arizona
Northern Arizona went from bad to worse with the injury to G Josh Wilson and the suspension of G Matt Johnson earlier this month and the Lumberjacks are just 1-5 ATS without Johnson. Idaho State has been better against bad teams than good teams this season and my ratings favor the Bengals by 8 ½ points in this game. Northern Arizona is just 14-25 ATS with 1 or fewer days between games (compared to 38-20 ATS with 2 or more days to prepare), including 6-17 ATS away from home and 4-21 ATS against a team coming off a win (1-14 ATS road or neutral). Idaho State isn’t good in the 2nd game in 3 days either (9-20 ATS), but they’re 5-4 ATS at home in that scheduling situation. I’ll lean with Idaho State at -7 or less based on the line value.
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