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WUNDERDOG

5 UNITS Cavaliers / Rockets Under 186

3 UNITS St. Marys +14

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Big Al was already posted ats on page 2 and right above your last post.  ;D

BIG AL

At 9 pm, our College Basketball High Roller is on the Michigan Wolverines plus the points over Purdue. Earlier this year, U-M lost to the Boilers in West Lafayette, but now fall into some of my best same-season revenge angles (with records of 39-13 and 31-6 ATS). Also, Michigan catches Purdue in one of its worst roles, as the Boilermakers have covered just 19 of their last 66 away from home, if they are not playing with same-season revenge, and played their previous two games at home. This situation happened once before in conference play this season, and Penn State pulled the upset over Purdue in Happy Valley. This will be Michigan's final home game of the season, and I expect a raucous atmosphere at Crisler Arena. Look for the Wolverines to win big tonight on "Senior Day," and upset Purdue. Take the points.


At 7 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Minnesota. We played on the Gophers last Sunday against Northwestern, and Minnesota rewarded us with a 72-45 blowout victory. But that was a perfect spot for Tubby Smith's men, and now it's time to fade the Gophers, as they're an awful bet on the Big 10 road. Overall, Minnesota has lost its last six conference road games ATS, and has covered just 30 of its last 80 road games when not playing with same-season revenge. Earlier this season, Minnesota defeated Illinois 59-36, but prior to that win, the Illini had won 20 STRAIGHT vs. the Gophers. Look for Illinois to avenge that 23-point pasting, and win its 21st game of the last 22 vs. Minnesota. NCAA Roadkill on Illinois.


At 9 pm, our Conference USA Game of the Year is on the UAB Blazers plus the points over Memphis. UAB falls into one of my best systems, which is 81-27 ATS since 1990, and this system plays on certain home dogs with strong home courts (at least 32 wins in last 40 home games) which are matched up against .750 (or better) foes off a straight-up win. Additionally, UAB plays with revenge from a 13-point loss at Memphis, and the Blazers also fall into a same-season revenge angle of mine which is 39-13 ATS this year. Everyone knows about Memphis' dominance in Conference USA games: The Tigers have won 54 straight since falling at UAB two seasons ago. But UAB's working on some impressive streaks as well. The Blazers are 12-0 at home this year, and have won 26 of their last 27 home games, with their only loss by a single point (yes, to these Tigers), 79-78 last February. And Memphis won that game by the scantest of margins, as UAB hit a last-second shot, but replays showed it was released a hair after time expired. This will be another tough game for the 4th-ranked Tigers, as UAB is the top shooting team in Conference USA, and Blazer guard Robert Vaden leads the league in 3-pointers made, while teammate Paul Delaney has the best FG percentage, nationally, among all guards. The Blazers are 19-8 ATS at home since 1993 when playing with same-season revenge, including 10-1 ATS when checking in off a win. UAB's won six straight coming into tonight's game, and an outright upset win won't be a surprise. Take the points.

3* Lasalle

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Seabass

100* Cal
50* Ill
30* Akron
20* Wake Forest
20* New Orleans

100* is Washington not Cal

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Dr Bob

College Opinions

Youngstown State (+16) over BUTLER

Butler is coming off a satisfying “Bracket Buster” upset win at Davidson, as the Bulldogs continue to play their best against non-conference opponents (16-5-1 ATS under coach Stevens) or when challenged (24-10-3 ATS in all games when favored by 10 or less or getting points). However, Butler tends to relax as a big favorite in Horizon League play and the Bulldogs are just 5-13 ATS as a conference favorite of more than 10 points (2-5 ATS this season). Youngstown State, meanwhile, is 11-4 ATS as a conference underdog of more than 10 points under coach Jerry Slocum, including 4-1 ATS this season and 4-1 ATS against Butler. Butler also applies to a negative 13-52 ATS big home favorite letdown situation and my ratings favor Butler by only 15 points against the improving Penquins who are 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games and covered the spread in the only game that they lost recently (a 4 point loss as a 14 ½ point dog at Cleveland State). I’ll lean with the Penguins at +15 or +15 ½ points and I’ll take Youngstown State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +16 points or more.

Cleveland State (-5 ½) over VALPARAISO

Cleveland State lost on Saturday at Wichita State to end a 7 game winning streak, but the loss at Wichita was a bit of a fluke given that the Shockers made 10 of 16 3-point shots rather than the 5 of 16 3-pointers that you’d expect from a team that shoots just 32% from beyond the arc of the season (and Cleveland State allows just 32%). Cleveland State should bounce-back tonight given the Vikings’ 21-6 ATS record as a favorite of 9 points or less and their 7-3 ATS road favorite mark the last two seasons (6-1 with PG D’Aundray Brown in the lineup). Valparaiso hasn’t beaten too many good teams since joining the Horizon league and the Crusaders are just 5-15 straight up in Horizon League games against teams that are 2 games above .500 or better and they’re only 3-12-1 ATS in those games when not an underdog of at least 10 points. My ratings favor Cleveland State by 7 points if you take out the games in which PG Brown missed and I’ll lean with Cleveland State at -6 points or less.

ELON (-4) over Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern nearly blew a 19 point lead on Saturday, but hung on for a 66-63 win as a 1 ½ point favorite against Jacksonville State. That victory ended an 8 game losing streak for the Eagles and I don’t expect them to win again this season. Georgia Southern is missing a couple of their best players due to injury (top player Willie Powers) and suspensions (G Julian Allen, F Trumaine Pearson, and G Antoine Johnson) and Elon, while not a good team, is the better team. Elon, unfortunately, may be without Brett James, who is their best all around player (13.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.6 steals, and 1.5 blocks) and has missed practice this week with an injured foot. James is a game time decision and I’d prefer not to take the chance that he won’t play. I’d still favor Elon by more than 4 points even if James doesn’t play, but I’ll just lean with the Phoenix tonight rather than make them a Best Bet.

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Steven Budin

25 DIME WASHINGTON

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DOC

4 units Florida International

3 units Alabama Birmingham

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Executive

350% Miami,Fla -3'

300% Wash St -3

250% Xavier -3'

250% So.Cal +4'

250% Arizona St +3'

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Helmut

Detroit Over 127

Valpo Over 124.5

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MIKE NERI

3* Cleveland Cavs
3* Iillinois
3* Alabama Birmingham
3* Michigan

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Teddy June

Private Players Club

St Joes

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Evan Altemus

Cincinnati +5 vs W.Virginia

West Virginia has won three straight games in blowout fashion. However, two of those contests were at home, and their only road game was at Rutgers. Consequently, the Mountaineers are coming into this game over-valued and over-confident. They will be traveling to face a very talented and motivated Cincinnati squad. The Bearcats need marquees win in order to get into the tournament, and this game, being played on a national television, would be an excellent chance to get a win against a quality opponent. Cincinnati has been a very strong home team, despite losing their last game against the spread and straight up to Louisville. That game was close throughout though, as the final score is slightly misleading. Meanwhile, West Virginia has struggled on the road this season, with road losses to Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Syracuse. They have routinely had poor performances away from home, especially when coming into a game on a high note. Cincinnati desperately needs a win in this game, so look for them to get an easy point spread cover.

2 UNIT SELECTION


UAB +4.5 vs Memphis

Memphis survived a scare at UTEP in their last game, and the Tigers are back out on the road to face a very tough UAB team. The Blazers almost shocked them last season, but the Tigers were able to escape with a one point win. UAB has a tremendously strong home court edge. They are 12-0 straight up on their home floor, including several blowout wins. This game will be the biggest of the season for the Blazers, especially since they want to avenge a 13 point loss at Memphis from just a few weeks ago. UAB matches up fairly well against Memphis, and their home statistics are significantly better, especially on defense. The Tigers will suffer from experienced guard play in this game, as the Blazers love to play pressure defense. That defense will be even more suffocating because of the motivation that UAB will play with. Look for the Blazers to win this game outright or take it down to the wire.

2 UNIT SELECTION


Purdue -2.5 vs Michigan

Purdue went through a rough stretch of games when their best player, Kyle Hummel, was out or severely limited with a back injury. However, he is back in the starting line-up, and the Boilermakers have looked like a different team when he?s on the floor. They are coming off of two straight blowout wins, including an outstanding performance against Michigan State. Purdue has been able to play well on the road this season against lesser opponents, with outright wins at Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. They cannot afford to lose this game because of conference title aspirations. In addition, Michigan struggles against teams that are able to shut down their perimeter shooters. Purdue is the strongest defensive team in the Big 10 and will limit the Wolverine offense. The Boilermakers will get the point spread cover on the road.

2 UNIT SELECTION


California -4 vs Southern California

These two teams have exhibited a strong home/road dichotomy all season long. Now they face off against each other, with the home team only being a small favorite. USC has really struggled recently, losing four of their last five games. They are also coming off of a disappointing home loss to Washington, in a game that they led late. Meanwhile, this game is a revenge spot for California, as USC defeated them at home earlier this year. The Golden Bears are also coming off of a disappointing road loss at Oregon State, so they will bring a maximum effort in this game. Cal also has won their last three home games straight up and against the spread. California will win this game comfortably.

2 UNIT SELECTION


Washington -4 vs Ariz. St

Washington has a nice situational edge over Arizona State in this game. The Sun Devils are going on the road after playing three straight games at home. They also won all three of those contests against top conference teams, USC, UCLA, and Arizona. However, they have to travel on the road to face a very tough Washington team. The Huskies beat the Sun Devils outright earlier this season on the road, but yet they are still only a small favorite in this game. Washington has played very well at home this season, with a 9-4 against the spread record, including a dominating outright win over UCLA. The Huskies desperately want to win a conference title and would be in position to do so with a win here. Look for Washington to control this game throughout over an over-confident Arizona State team.

2 UNIT SELECTION


HOU +3.5 vs CLE

This game has seen a significant line move in the wrong direction, as Cleveland has gone from a 1.5 point to a 3.5 point favorite. The public has not recognized that the Rockets are a significantly better team without Tracy McGrady in the line-up. Houston is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread since the break, with all of their games coming at home. Meanwhile, Cleveland is nowhere near as dominate on the road, as they are at home. The Cavaliers will get back guard Delonte West tonight, but his return will mess with the rotation. Houston hasn?t lost by four points or more at home since back in early November, despite playing the league?s best teams. Look for the Rockets to get the outright win as an underdog.

2 UNIT SELECTION

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Fairway Jay

15* Tenn Martin

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Dennis Hill

300* Houston Rockets

1 Unit Butler

1 Unit New Mexico State.

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N.Y. SPORTS INVESTORS

PURDUE -2.5

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Robert Ferringo

3.5-Unit Play. Take Youngstown State (+16.5) over Butler
Note: This is our Game of the Week. Bump to 4.0.

What does Butler have to play for in this game? Where is their motivation? What is their purpose? The Bulldogs are a very good team, but even they are susceptible to a letdown game. Or a lookahead game. Butler is coming off a big win over Davidson last Saturday in its Bracket Buster game. They also host Cleveland State, a big rival, on Saturday. So that leaves them stuck with this game with the Penguins in between. So I ask again, where is the motivation for Butler to come out and lay a 20-point ass-kicking on Youngstown State? And I know you see the line and think, "Well Butler only has to win by 17 to cover." That's true. But if you see a number this big that means that a team has to be that much better than its opponent that they will be leading by 19, 20, 23 points at some point during the game. YSU, on the other hand, has everything to play for. They are getting a crack at a distracted Top 25 team. They only lost by eight points in the first meeting and they are a solid 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Hinkle. Youngstown has covered three straight in this series and is a stellar 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Hey, they just play Butler tough and they get a few extra points from the oddsmakers. I look for the same situation here. In the last nine meetings only twice have the Bulldogs won by more than 16 points. YSU is 20-7-2 ATS in conference games while Butler is 2-5 ATS. I don't know what turned YSU on in the last month, but since Christmas they have eight losses and only two of them are by more than 16 points. In fact, their last three losses - Cleveland State, Detroit, and Wright State - have come by just a combined 14 points. Youngstown actually has outright wins over Wisconsin-Green Bay and Cleveland State, two teams on the same level as Butler. Are they going to win tonight? Hell no. But they could play well and keep this one in single digits. Remember - Butler has a bizarre loss to Loyola-Chicago at home this year as an 18-point underdog and they are 7-15 ATS as a double-digit favorite (including 1-4 ATS recently) over the past two years. Butler only beat Valpo by nine and won two games over Detroit by a combined total of 10 points. They can be cashed against in these situations and, all in all, I like the spot. Let's go get 'em.

2.5-Unit Play. Take Rider (-1) over Loyola-Md.
This Broncs team is a veteran squad that should be able to get one on the road here against a weakened Loyola club. The Greyhounds are kind of like UMass and other teams like that: they are a fantastic bet as a road team but a lousy play as a home team. Rider has four starters back from last year's dominating Metro team. They are a veteran squad that has performed pretty well on the road this season in conference play. They are 4-4 away from home and 5-3 ATS in those games. Loyola won the first meeting by 14, giving Rider some in-season revenge.

2-Unit Play. Take Cleveland State (-4) over Valparaiso
Could Cleveland State be looking ahead to Saturday's Butler game? Absolutely. But they are also reeling a bit from getting blown out at Wichita State last weekend so their radar will be on high. Valpo doesn't shoot, doesn't defend, and they don't make free throws. Cleveland State has covered all four meetings, including a 13-point win at Valpo last year.. CSU has everyone back from that squad while the Crusaders are the shell of their former selves.

1.5-Unit Play. Take Buffalo (-1) over Akron
Akron is not a good road team and Buffalo is - stop me if you heard this one - coming off a tough Bracket Buster loss. Buffalo has been great at home this year and for the last few seasons. They are more experienced and are simply a better team.

1.5-Unit Play. Take Miami (-3.5) over Virginia
Miami has clearly stepped up its game over the last two weeks and I think they know how desperate they are for some wins. Virginia is simply not a good team. They won at home last week against Va. Tech, but that was only because the Hokies were without their top interior threat. Miami has the best player on the floor and should be able to pound UVA on the boards and in their zone. Miami is 19-7-1 ATS against teams with a losing record and they are on a 4-1 ATS rush. I think they win this game by about 7 or 8 points, but it shouldn't even be that close.

1.5-Unit Play. Take Washington (-4) over Arizona State
This one is for the Pac-10 championship and I just don't think that you can understate the home edge. Arizona State has been better on the road this year than they have been in the past several seasons, but I still don't think they are a great travel team. Especially here. They have lost five of their last six trips to Washington and the five losses have come by 8, 5, 24, 11 and 8 points. They won out here last year, but that was a completely different Huskies club. Arizona State has the best player on the floor, but Washington has the best team and Arizona's State's shooting splits home and away are troubling. I think Washington wins this one and I don't think it's going to be close.

1.5-Unit Play. Take Wisconsin-Green Bay (-6.5) over Detroit
Note: Drop to a 1.0-Unit Play.

The Phoenix are getting hot and gearing up for what they no is their last shot - a Horizon Tournament run. They are ready to kick Detroit while they are down (2-7-1 ATS run). The visitor is 6-2-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

1-Unit Play. Take N.C. State (+11.5) over Wake Forest

1-Unit Play. Take Cal (-4) over USC
I really hate to bet against a desperate Trojans team, but anyone that has bet with me knows that I love Cal. And I think that they will drive another nail in USC's coffin. The Trojans are on a 1-4 ATS slide and they are just 3-5 ATS in the last eight meetings. The home team has dominated this series, going 6-1 SU, and the favorite has been the play at 8-2 ATS. USC just hasn't been a good road team. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six road trips.

1-Unit Play. Take Gonzaga (-10) over Santa Clara
I know this is a rivalry game and everything, but all that means is that Gonzaga is going to come to play. And they are 5x the team that the Broncos are this year. And believe me, they are not going to take it easy on Santa Clara.

2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take Arizona (+7.5) over Washington State AND Take Austin Peay (-3.5) over Eastern Illinois

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take Illinois (-2.5) over Minnesota AND Take Portland (+8.5) over San Diego

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Yankee Capper

NBA TOTAL DOMINATION

CLEVELAND/HOUSTON UNDER 185.5


NHL TOTAL DOMINATION

PHOENIX/NASHVILLE UNDER 5.5 (-140)


NCAA HOOPS GUARANTEED BLOWOUT

WAKE FOREST -11.5


NHL TOTAL DOMINATION

ST. LOUIS/DALLAS OVER 5.5 (+115)


NCAA HOOPS GUARANTEED BLOWOUT

MEMPHIS -4.5


NBA TOTAL DOMINATION

PHOENIX/LA LAKERS OVER 232

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Eddie Mush

4* WKU -14
4* NCST +11.5
6* Suns +11.5
8* Wisc-GB -6
8* Weber St. -8.5

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Best Sports Picks

UAB +5

Illinois -7

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Power Play Wins

Power Play Of The Day

Cleveland State Vikings -4.5

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Sports Bank

400 Southern Cal

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