WEDNESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

WEDNESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Raging Bull

Soccer:

UEFA Champions League:

Juventus/Chelsea under 2.5

Bayern Munich pk -140 (2 way betting, where a draw is a push)

CONCACAF Champions League:

UNAM Pumas/Cruz Azul over 2.5

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Maddux Sports

Basketball

3 units on Orlando -2
3 units on Milwaukee +7

3 units on Saint Louis -1
3 units on Rutgers +14.5
3 units on Tennessee -8.5

Today's Free Pick is South Carolina -1

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The Soccer Expert

Hofstra at Georgia St over 123

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Blade wrote:


Raging Bull

Soccer:

UEFA Champions League:

Juventus/Chelsea under 2.5

Bayern Munich pk -140 (2 way betting, where a draw is a push)

CONCACAF Champions League:

UNAM Pumas/Cruz Azul over 2.5

Again, I don't know how well this service is doing, and I'm just giving my personal non-expert opinion. With that said, I don't like either of these bets in UEFA CL.

Given, it's always solid play to go under with italian teams playing away games (especially if it's involving a return game - their philosophy is draw away - don't concede, win at home) because they will most likely try to slow down the tempo and kill the flow of the match. It might be a little different today as Hiddink (new coach) is playing his second proper game with the team. He has been at Chelsea only about week and a half, but he's a "run 'n' gun" kinda coach (ala D'antoni) and is preaching attacking mentality and a looot of running (Russian team in Euro 2008 ie). He's also playing with Drogba and Anelka on top, two big targets and very good attackers, but most often not used together in Chelsea as they leave the midfield more vulnerable and weaker (essentially playing 4-4-2 rather than 4-5-1 which has five players in the middle).
Juve is not to be counted off as a side which can't score with players like Amauri, Del Piero (very dangerous in freekick situations) up front and now there will be more space for attacking midfielders Nedved, Camoranesi.

-200 u2.5 is not a bet I'd like to take valuewise even if it can be good
+150 o2.5 is good value, but given the teams and the way they can play, I don't like this one either

Pinnacle has o/u2 @-106 and -102



Hard to think Bayern can lose outright, but they've gone 1-3 since their league started (the second part) and they lost 1-2 four days ago...at home in front of 69.000...to a side that has -5 goal difference on 21 games (gfa 24, gaa 29). They have huge names (internationals all over), but there's been nagging and whining within the club, there are always very big expectations and players have team owners and managers tell them they have to win, pretty much before every single game. Massive pressure that's even bigger now since they failed to qual after group stage last year, something that was considered a large failure. These are pro players, but they def get affected and given their bad form last weeks, they might not have greatest confidence today.
Sporting is a solid portugese side, they play classic southern-euro style with flair and good technical skills, they have won their latest 4 games (first of those was a cup game vs big rivals Porto - don't know how regular the teams were), with latest being against rival Benfica 3-2. Huge game so their confidence is on top, form as well. They have good names in brasilian international, defender Polga, portugese intern., mf Moutinho, russian intern. mf Izmailov - considered one of the best russian players - very fast, Rochemback, Postiga, Liedson all very high quality players, with several more in the lineup. This team is not to be taken lightly.
Bayern may come out little weary and Sporting could take advantage of it, but also to take into account that Bayern might simply play for a draw here, and even losing 1-0 is a decent result for a home return.



Other two games, if (big if) Villarreal are back to its form then they should take this one. Forward Nihat might come back after being injured alot and that could be a big boost. edit big oops Panathinaikos can prove to be little tricky, they won both their heavier away games @Werder (3-0) and @Inter (1-0) in this competition (they won both of those away games, not lost...sorry)
Villarreal is missing its 2 reg defenders, but they're getting back the third one who's been injured for 10 days, so their defense might be out of synch. They can score goals, and so can Pana.

o2.5 +125
o2 and 2.5 +102 (pinnacle) might be worth a try as it seems to be an open game.



Real Madrid looks like a nice bet, but whether Gerrard (midfield motor, skipper, heart and soul of this team) plays or not is not yet clear (game time dec or strategy). Torres is also a former Atl Madrid player (big city rivals) so I would expect Reals defense to give him very little room to work on.
Real M has great form and has, since their last loss to Barcelona mid december, 9 straight wins, scoring 2.5 gpg...and conciding only 2...that's 2 goals in 9 games.
Pool has had 5 draws in last 8 games, 2 wins, 1 loss and there are rumors of their coach Benitez being fired, injured players chasing late fitness, out of form, not scoring enough and coming to an 80.000 packed Santiago Bernabeu with Real Madrid in high form...that's like going to Utah Jazz these days.

+106 is a good value
+550 for Sergio Ramos (defender) to score a goal is a fun prop (he might sneak in on freekicks and corners and is good in the air).

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Thanks for the input badzo nice to have someone here who follows Soccer and isn't afraid to voice their opinion.

wink

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Vegas Sports Experts

10* Take Indiana (+4.5) over Northwestern (NCAA Power Play)

Northwestern
• 5-14 ATS when playing on a Wednesday
• 5-13 ATS after having lost 2 of the last 3 games
• 0-9 SU vs. Indiana on the road

10* Take Milwaukee (+7.5) over Dallas (NBA Power Play)

Milwaukee
• 22-9 ATS after scoring 120 points or more since 1996
• 5-0 ATS vs. Dallas over the last 3 seasons


Bonus Pays

5* Take James Madison (+2.5) over VCU (NCAA)

5* Take Pittsburgh (-285) over NY Islanders (NHL)

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Winning Angle

Play James Madison (+2.5) over VCU* (Top NCAA Play)

James Madison has covered the spread in 7 consecutive games and they have also covered the spread in 11 of the last 15 games as an underdog. James Madison has covered the spread 10 of the last 12 games coming off an OVER the total.

Play Maryland (+6) over Duke* (Bonus NCAA Play)

Maryland has covered the spread in 16 of the last 20 games when playing in the month of February and they have also covered the spread in 14 of the last 18 home games after covering the spread in four of the last five games.


NBA Hoops
Play Minnesota (+7) over Utah (NBA Top Play)

NHL
Play San Jose (+120) over Detroit* (NHL Bonus Play)

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Beat Your Bookie

50000* Play UNLV (+4.5) over Utah (NCAA)
(NCAA GOY II)

UNLV is 15-3 ATS in road games when the total is between 130 and 139.5
points
UNLV is 14-3 ATS coming off a conference win by 3 points or less
UNLV is 4-0 ATS as a road underdog this season
UNLV is 6-1 SU vs. Utah over the last 3 seasons


100* Play South Florida (+7) over Seton Hall (NCAA)

Seton Hall is 6-22 ATS in home games coming off an UNDER the total
Seton Hall is 2-10 ATS coming off a road loss the last 2 seasons
Seton Hall is 3-12 ATS in home games after playing as an underdog

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Glad I can give something back the way you earned it. Lets hope I'm also good at this picking sides thingy  ;D


Good luck with all your plays guys, off to watch 24 and make some bets.

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John Ryan

Pick: Money Line: San Jose Sharks +117

Ai Simulator 10* graded play on San Jose as they travel to face Detroit in a big marquee showdown of elite teams. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 22-18 making 14 units since 2003 with the average play a +145.7 DOG. Play against home teams against the money line with a poor starting goalie posting a save percentage of <= 89.5 of shots against him and is a hot offensive team with 5 straight games with 30 or more shots on goal. Here is a second system that has gone 66-55 making 36.8 units since 2003 with the average play a +139.1 DOG. Play against any team against the money line that is a very good team outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game in the 2nd half of the season and after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game. Here is a third system that has gone 265-292 for just 48% winners, but has made 53.2 units since 2003. Play against home favorites of -200 or less against the money line that is an explosive offensive team scoring 3+ goals/game on the season and after playing a game where 7 or more total goals were scored. San Jose is a strong 16-3 against the money line (+10.4 Units) against poor starting goalies saving <= 89.5% of shots against over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is just 2-5 against the money line (-8.6 Units) against mistake free teams opponents average <=4 power plays/game in the 2nd half of the year this season. AiS also projects that San Jose has a 92% probability of attempting between 27 and 31 shots on goal. Note that they are 15-2 making 11.2 units this season when they get 27 to 31 shots on goal. Take San Jose.

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Dr. Canada

Kings/Flyers over 6

Islanders/Penguins over 6

Sharks/Red Wings over 6

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RON RAYMOND

5* Detroit Red Wings -140

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Brandon Lang

20-Dime Hofstra

5-Dime James Madison

5-Dime Marquette

FREE - Central Florida

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NSA

20* Connecticut +1
10* Dayton +6.5
10* Rutgers/Notre Dame OVER 144
10* Kentucky +1
10* Virginia Tech +11
10* Orlando -2

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Vernon Croy

NBA Slam Dunk

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play:Milwaukee +7

20 Units, Take Milwaukee ATS, We are getting solid line value here tonight with the Bucks who face a Mavericks team that just lost by 17 points on the road against the Spurs last night. The Bucks have struggled on the road this season but they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team that has a home wining record greater than .600 like the Mavericks who are 9-8 SU at home this season. Milwaukee is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against a Southwest division opponent and Dallas is just 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games against a Central division opponent. The Bucks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing with 2 days rest and the Mavericks are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on back to back days. The Bucks are averaging 108.2 ppg over their last 5 games and they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against the Mavericks. The dog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 games between the Bucks and Mavericks and I look for the Bucks to keep this game close tonight on the road against a team they beat by 34 points back on January.21. Take the Milwaukee Bucks as my NBA Slam Dunk for Wednesday night as I look to bounce back after losing my only play last night with the Detroit Pistons.


NHL Smash

San Jose Sharks vs. Detroit Red Wings
Play: San Jose +116

20 Units, Take San Jose ML, We are getting solid value here tonight with the Sharks and this pick falls into one of my top NHL systems. Detroit is just 2-5 in their last 7 games against a team that has a winning record greater than .600 like the Sharks who are 41-8-9 this season including 15-6-6 on the road. The Red Wings have dropped 3 of their last 5 games and they have struggled defensively with opponents averaging 3.6 goals per game against them over those 5 games. Detroit has struggled killing penalties at home this season with opponents converting 22.5% of their chances with the extra man against them and the Sharks powerplay has been solid on the road converting at 26.4% this season. The Sharks opponents are averaging just 2.2 goals per game against them over their last 5 games and the Sharks come into this game red hot having won 4 straight games. Detroit is very tough at home but I will take the hot Sharks as my NHL Smash for Wednesday night.


NHL Bookie Buster

New York Rangers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Play: New York Rangers -131

20 Units, Take the New York Rangers ML, The Rangers are the better overall team here Wednesday night and I look for them to avenge their recent home loss to the Leafs. The Rangers are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 road games when favored by -110 to -150 and they are 10-1 in their last 11 road games when favored. The Leafs are just 1-7 in their last 8 games after a win and they are just 3-13 in their last 16 games when playing with 2 days rest. The Leafs are just 7-22 in their last 29 home games against a team with a losing road record and their opponents are averaging 3.4 goals per game against them at home this season. The Rangers have been very good at killing penalties this season with opponents converting just 13.2% against them on the powerplay and the Leafs penalty kill has been terrible at home with opponents converting 27.9% of their chances with the extra man against them. With the Rangers Head Coach fired I look for this team to have a fire lit under them tonight. Take the NY Rangers as my NHL Bookie Buster for Wednesday night.

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Scott Pritchard

Iowa at Michigan St
Pick: Over 122

I have one play, one time. It's not how many you play, it's how many you win. Iowa at Michigan State. I like the OVER. I'm hitting 57 percent winners in college hoops for the season and am number 2 overall in gauranteed plays. The total is simply too low considering these two teams. Play the OVER and see the cashier.
   

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BEN BURNS

Blue Chip

I'm playing on Sacramento and Charlotte to finish UNDER the total.

The Bobcats, who allow the sixth fewest points in the league, played their fourth straight 'under' yesterday, holding the high-flying Suns to "only" 112 points. While the Bobcats did score 102 points in that game, they only managed 78 and 80 in their previous two games and they're the lowest-scoring team in the entire NBA. Of course, Sacramento games have been much higher-scoring. However, the Kings are currently adjusting to some lineup changes and some of those changes should help them become somewhat of a stronger defensive team. Even with their last game finishing above the number, they've still seen the UNDER go 3-2 their last five. The Bobcats have seen the UNDER go 8-5 when playing the second of back to back games. They've also seen the UNDER go 7-3 after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game. Additionally, we find the UNDER at 2-0 when they've played a road game with an over/under line ranging from 200 to 204.5. Look for the Bobcats to continue their low-scoring ways for another day, as this evening's final combined score also proves lower-scoring than most are expecting. *Blue Chip


WIZARDS - writeup to follow

NETS - writeup to follow


Blowout GOY

I'm laying the points with DAVIDSON.

I played against the Wildcats a couple of times earlier in the season, including their blowout loss at Purdue. At the time, I felt Davidson had become over-rated and over-valued. This was largely due to the public's love and knowledge of Stephen Curry. After all, how many other players does the general betting public know from the Southern Conference. Additionally, the Wildcats got off to a quick start, from an ATS perspective, including a big cover vs. Oklahoma. That quickly reminded everyone of what they'd done in last year's tournament and many were quick to jump on board. The Wildcats have been nothing special at the betting window since that point though. For the season, they've gone just 9-12-1 ATS as favorites and 12-13-1 ATS overall. That includes three straight pointspread losses, the last two of them both coming in SU fashion. That's caused many of the early season bandwagon riders to abandon ship and kept tonight's line somewhat more reasonable than it would have been otherwise. That may sound strange to say about a line which is this high. However, keep in mind that they were laying 29 points vs. Furman (they won by 40) less than a month ago and Furman is a team which is ahead of N.C. Greensboro in the standings and which won the lone between those teams this season. In other words, tonight's line could have easily been even higher than it currently is. Its true that Stephen Curry struggled in the loss vs. Butler. However, he's had more time to recover from his injury and the Spartans' defense isn't even close to what Butler brings to the table. Indeed, they allow 76.5 points per game on the road and this is by far the toughest venue in the conference. The Spartans have lost five straight, including a 69-56 home loss to Western Carolina last time out. That could have been even worse as they were down 19 at half and 54-31 with 13:53 left. Keep in mind that Davidson beat Western Carolina by 24. In their previous game, also playing at home, the Spartans lost vs. Appalachian State - Davidson faced Appalachian State on the road and won by 18. Looking at the earlier meeting and we find the Wildcats won by 21. That was at Greensboro though while tonight's game is at Davidson. When these teams played here last year, the Wildcats won by 30. Making matters worse for North Carolina-Greensboro, the Wildcats come in angry. They don't lose back to back games very often and they'll be looking to take out their frustrations by wiping the floor with the lowly Spartans. The Wildcats are 24-17-1 ATS the last 42 times that they were home favorites of greater than a dozen points. That includes a 3-1 ATS mark as home favorites in the 24.5 to 30 range. Excluding pushes, the Wildcats are a highly profitable 103-61 ATS their last 164 lined conference games. During that stretch, they've also gone 5-2 ATS when failing to cover the spread in their previous three lined games. The Wildcats have dominated the Spartans the past several seasons and I look for them to bounce back with a convincing win and cover. *Blowout GOY


Eastern Conf. GOM

I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS.

These teams just faced each other at Madison Square Garden a couple of nights ago. The Leafs won that game by a score of 3-2, in overtime. However, a closer look shows that the Rangers had a commanding 29-9 advantage in shots on goal through the second and third periods and a 38-24 edge overall. Rangers captain Chris Drury said of the defeat: "It was a tough loss. Toskala was playing well. We couldn't get anything by him. A couple of mistakes, and we lost in OT." After that game, (former) coach Tom Renney had this to say: "We played hard. We outshot this team significantly..." Evidently, "playing hard" wasn't enough, as Renney has seen been fired. That should prove to be a positive, at least in the short-term, as the team needed a spark and was underachieving under Renney. Playing with immediate "revenge," desperately trying to earn points and playing their first game under new coach John Tortorella, I expect the Rangers to respond with a massive effort. Even with Sunday's victory, the Leafs are a dozen points behind the eighth place team in the East. Additionally, both the ninth and 10th place teams are comfortably ahead of them. In other words, they won't be making the playoffs. Note that Toronto is a money-burning 2-11 (-9.8) on the season, when playing with two day's rest in between games. Conversely, the Rangers are right in the thick of the race, meaning every game is extremely important. While they lost here in November, the Rangers have still won four of their last six visits to Toronto. Its also worth noting that the Rangers are a profitable 28-18 (+9.4) the past few seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. Look for them to drop the puck on the "new era" by earning a much-needed two points. *Eastern Conf. GOM

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California Sports

4* Orlando
4* Seton Hall
3* S Carolina
3* Dayton
3* Kansas St
3* Under Ok St

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Las Vegas Sport Picks

NBA:

2* Mavericks -7
3* Pacers -7
5* Celtics -8
7* Magic/Knicks over 217

NCAA:

1* Kentucky +1
3* UNC Greensboro +25
4* Maryland/Duke over 145

NHL:

2* Sharks/Wings over 6
4* NYI/Pens over 6

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C-Stars Sports

5000 Units Dallas minus the points over Milwaukee
1000 Units Top Play - NHL - Detroit over San Jose
1000 Units NC-Greensboro plus the points over Davidson
1000 Units Toledo/Eastern Michigan OVER the total
50 Units San Antonio minus the points over Portland
50 Units Philadelphia/Washington UNDER the total
50 Units Chicago/New Jersey UNDER the total.

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