WEDNESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: WEDNESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
*WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY over Valparaiso...With Green Bay (6-1-1 as a home favorite) having earned a split with Butler and in the thick of February 18 the race for first place in the Horizon League, look for no let-up from the deep, veteran, and fine-shooting Phoenix, who lead the conference in scoring, FG %, FT %, and trey %. The WGB frontline, led by 6-9 sr. Mike Schachtner (91% FTs) & 6-9 jr. Randy Berry, is among the steadiest in the nation, and 6-1 jr. Troy Cotton (25 points each in recent back-to-back games) can dominate if not stopped early. Poor-shooting (41% FGs) and weak-rebounding Valpo unlikely to keep pace.
*WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY 87 - Valparaiso 62 RATING - 11
Re: WEDNESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Rhode Island vs. Massachusetts
Pick: Rhode Island -2.5
The Mullins Center will be the site of tonight’s Atlantic 10 Conference battle between the host Massachusetts Minutemen and the visiting Rams from Rhode Island University. This is another situation with a towel tossing team facing a team that’s in the thick of the battle looking for postseason opportunities. The host went on the road and defeated Fordham 91 to 68 and then lost on the road at St. Bonaventure 83 to 75 in their most recent game. The Rams are coming in off back-to-back wins over St. Bonnie 87 to 80 and in that game they had to overcome a fifteen point halftime deficient to get the win and then they defeated Saint Louis 69 to 61. UMASS is 9-14 SU and only 8-11 against the number on the season which includes a home record of 6-5 SU and 4-4 ATS averaging 71.7 points per game and allowing over 74 points per game their last five, that comes against teams that average only 69.4 points per game. The Minutemen have struggled making stops on the defensive end of the floor and that will be the difference tonight in this contest. The Rams lineup is healthy and they are averaging right at 80 points per game on 48.4 percent from the field and allowing opponents to score 73 points per game. Technical support for our selection comes from both teams involved in tonight’s game. UMASS is 6-15 ATS after playing a road game the last 2 seasons, 2-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 the last 2 seasons and 2-10 ATS in home games off a road loss the last 3 seasons. RI is 6-0 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds the last 2 seasons and 13-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997. Play ON college basketball teams off two straight wins and now an away favorite, 179-13-7 ATS, if the line is pk-2.5 that record is 46-27-1 ATS. Play ON college basketball teams off a SU win and ATS loss in their last two games and are now on the road with a line range of pk-2.5, 8-0 ATS if they are a road favorite their record is 6-0 ATS. Play AGAINST college basketball home underdogs of pk-2.5 off two road games, 17-31-1 ATS. Play AGAINST college basketball conference home teams with a line range of pk-2.5 off two road games, 35-55-1 ATS. Lay the chalk with Rhode Island as they get the win and cover in Amherst tonight.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (4*) Rhode Island 80 Massachusetts 71
Utah U vs. Colorado State (
Pick: Utah -8.5
Moby Arena will be the site of tonight’s Mountain West Conference clash between the host Colorado State Rams and the visiting Utes from the University of Utah. This game is the perfect situation for this time of the season we have one team that is fighting for an at large bid to the big dance if they fail to win their conference tournament and the other has now tossed in the towel on a disappointing season. Colorado State is 8-17 SU on the season and has failed in six of their last eight games when installed as a home underdog. Over their last five games they are 1-4 both SU and ATS averaging 62.0 points per game and allowing 78.8 points per game on 54.6 percent shooting from the field. Utah on the other hand is 18-7 SU and 14-10 ATS this season including 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS their last five games overall. In conference play they are averaging 73.1 points per game versus teams that only allow 67.0 points per game and defensively they are allowing 64.5 points per game to teams that would normally average 70.8 points per game. Utah has a solid inside-out offensive scheme that will be difficult for a towel tossing team to contend with and should lead to an easy win for the Utes tonight. Technical indicators also support our selection on Utah tonight as we see that CSU is 1-10 ATS versus teams making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games the last 2 seasons and 4-13 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points per game after 15+ games the last 2 seasons. We also have two CBB systems that are active for tonight’s game the first states we should Play ON any CBB conference favorite of 7 to 9.5 points after losing ATS and going ‘over’ at home in their last game, 20-8-1 ATS. The second CBB system says to Play AGAINST any CBB home underdog after losing their last two games against the spread, 52-78-1 ATS. Lay the chalk with Utah as they continue to make a run at the NCAA Big Dance.
Projected Final Score: (4*) Utah Utes 77 Colorado State Rams 64
Orlando Magic vs. New Orleans Hornets
Pick: Under 189
New Orleans Arena in the Big Easy will be the site of tonight’s battle between the host New Orleans Hornets and the visiting Magic from Orlando. Both teams are off SU wins last night with the Hornets hanging on to win over the Oklahoma City Thunder 100 to 98 and the Magic needed an extra stanza to get the win over Charlotte in Orlando last night 107 to 102. The last time these two teams got together was on Christmas Day in Orlando with the Magic drilling the Hornets 88 to 68 as the Hornets only made 28 of 84 shots in that game. We expect the Hornets to play much better in tonight’s contest but that doesn’t mean we will see a ton of scoring as this series has been dominated by the ‘under’ in recent clashes. In fact nine of the last ten in this series have fallen below the posted total including five straight and the last five in the Big Easy have stayed ‘under’ overall. The Hornets are 10-1 UNDER in home games versus teams outscoring their opponents by 6+ points per game the last 2 seasons, 40-17 UNDER revenging a loss the last 2 seasons, 21-7 UNDER revenging a loss versus an opponent of 10 points or more the last 2 seasons, 25-8 UNDER revenging a road loss the last 2 seasons and 16-1 UNDER revenging a road loss versus an opponent of 10 points or more the last 2 seasons. The Magic are 44-31 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record, 40-23 UNDER after one or more consecutive overs, 16-4 UNDER after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points the last 3 seasons, 45-27 UNDER off a home win the last 3 seasons, 37-16 UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more the last 2 seasons and 22-13 UNDER after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots this season. With significant support fundamentally, technically and historically we will play the ‘under’ here as the Magic and Hornets keep this one below the posted total.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (4*) Orlando Magic / New Orleans Hornets UNDER 189
Re: WEDNESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Best Bets for Wednesday.
Rotation #549 Houston (-4 1/2) 3-Stars at -6 or less, 2-Stars up to -7.
Rotation #595 SMU (+26 1/2) 3-Stars at +25 or more, 2-Stars down to +24
Opinions on Denver -1 in the NBA and UTEP -7 in college (2-Stars at -6 or less).
3 Star Selection
***Houston (-4 ½) over MARSHALL
Houston has had a tendency under coach Tom Penders to beat the teams that they are supposed to beat and they’ve been a good bet against lesser teams when not laying too many points. The Cougars are 17-4-1 ATS under Penders when facing a team with a win percentage of .500 or less and not laying more than 8 points, including 5-0 ATS this season. Marshall, meanwhile, is just 12-24 ATS in all games when not getting at least 12 points in two seasons under coach Donnie Jones, including 4-12 ATS this season. The Thundering Herd also apply to a negative 48-113-2 ATS situation and my ratings favor Houston by 7 points (8 points using conference games only). I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ or -7 points.
3 Star Selection
***Smu (+26 ½) over MEMPHIS
Memphis is cruising along on a 16 game win streak and spread wins in 7 of their last 8 games. The one recent game that the Tigers didn’t cover the spread in was a 13 point win as a 17 point favorite at SMU and I think the Mustangs can hang within the number again tonight. SMU is 10-3 ATS under coach Matt Doherty as a dog of 14 points or more, including a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. In those 5 games as big underdogs this season, the Mustangs have lost by an average of just 9 points despite an average price of +17 points in those games – and none of the losses has been by more than 13 points. Memphis applies to a very negative 19-77-1 ATS big favorite letdown situation that has won for me all 5 times it has applied this season. My ratings favor SMU by just 23 ½ points using all games this season and by 25 points using conference games only. I’ll take SMU in a 3-Star Best Bet at +25 points or more and for 2-Stars at +24 ½ or +24 points.
Re: WEDNESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4 Unit Play. #526. Take NC Wilmington +10.5 over Old Dominion (Wednesday @ 7pm est). Great game yesterday as Vandy gets it done for us although the first half might have given you a coronary. For today's action, I nearly settled on Florida as they come back home off of back to back losses and will likely look for a blowout against the Tide. But, the Tide were imperssive against South Carolina at home only losing by 2 so I laid off. Instead, let's look at a classic type of play we like to roll with and that is a home dog that is catching a butt load of points on revenge. Such is the case with the Seahawks today. We are 2-0 on the week and we will look to the Seahawks to get us to 3-0 and get a nice stranglehold on the winning week. The Seahawks are 6-21 SU. There is no doubt when you look at the SU record of this team they are abysmal. But, this team at home does have the capacity to play well. Remember, this is the same team that beat a top VCU team by 9, lost to James Madison by 6 at home who is a top 125 team, lost to Hofstra by 2 at home who is a top 140 team and lost to Richmond at home by 7 who is also a top 125 team. Yes, these two met earlier this year and NC Wilmington got drilled by a score of 57-87. But, what if I told you they got drilled by a similar margin against VCU on the road earlier this year by a score of 59-88 only to come back home and defeat the same team 81-72. The difference between NC Wilmington at home and on the road is that they can shoot at the friendly confines of their gym as compared to the on the road they can't shoot worth a lick as it is obvious. Look for NC Wilmington, who comes off a tight loss to Georgia State on the road by just 3, as they return home, with revenge, in a similar game as the VCU contest (who is a top 100 team as compared to ODU who is a top 125 team), who has covered their last 6 of 7, and their last 3 at home to be very game for this contest.
4 Unit Play. Take Minnesota +9.5 over the Miami Heat (Wednesday @ 7:30pm est). Let's ride the Twolves once again as they hit the road to Miami. One of my most favorite plays is to fade a team off of a new trade. I faded the Pistons the first few days from the AI trade and we cashed just fine. In that same token, I am going to fade the Miami Heat today as O'Neal and Moon cross over for them. It takes a team to get used to new players and consequently this team will have some hiccups today and will not be in complete sync until the first few games are done and over with. Do note however, that I think this is a great trade for the Heat as this adds more scoring, a rebounding presence and O'Neal will fit into the half court game the Heat have here. The Heat are a dynamic looking team with young talent and Moon will fit right in with the solid young guards that Miami has. But, this will take time to gel and I like the Timberwolves today to stay inside single digits. Look, this team should have won at Washington given their slow start, massive come back, at one point leading by 5 late in this game only to lose the game and cover. Miami beat this team by 3 points on the road earlier this year so Minny has revenge from that game, tack on the fact they are beginning to play better with no Al Jefferson for the year and Mchale is giving some of his young players such as Cardinal and McCants more time to build the depth of this team, I like the Twolves to hang tough in a low scoring contest. I believe it will take some time for the Heat to gel and the Twolves are beginning to figure out how to play with out Jefferson as the top five plus, the some of the reserves are making up the ground. The Twolves are 14-3 ATS when facing a team on the road with a winning record.
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