Tuesday Service Plays

Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Larry Ness

Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons
PICK: Detroit Pistons

This year's Pistons hardly resemble the team which has made SIX straight Eastern Conference Finals. Detroit opens play in the season's second half at 27-24 with a 14-13 home record. As for Milwaukee, the Bucks are with leading scorer Redd (21.2) for the remainder of the season, center Andrew Bogut (11.7-10.2) will miss at least the rest of the regular season and PG Luke Ridnour (10.7-3.4-5.7) is expected to miss another month with a broken right thumb. Despite all that, the Bucks are 26-29, which if the season were to end now, would give them the East's final playoff spot. Guard Ramon Sessions (11.7-3.0-4.8) has been 'hot' as of late, shooting 58 percent from floor in last five games (had a career-high 44 points vs the Pistons on Feb 7). Power forward Villanueva (15.7-6.5) is averaging 22.9 PPG and 8.1 RPG over his last 13 games and small forward Jefferson (17.8-4.9) is as always, playing at a high level. The Bucks are just 10-20 on the road but they are 16-12-2 ATS. The Pistons are an 'ugly' 6-16 as a home favorite to this point and we'll have to see if Iverson's (18.2-3.2-5.1) new haircut (revealed at the All Star game) will have any effect on the team's lack of chemistry. Reports are that Stuckey (13.7-3.4-4.9) is wearing down and obviously Hamilton (17.4-3.0-3.6) has never quite gotten used to the loss of Billups. Prince (13.7-6.5) and Wallace (13.0-7.6) are still quality players but Detroit's famed depth is no more. The Pistons have lost three straight, 12 of 17 and are just 23-24 since trading for Iverson but they seem to be able to beat the Bucks from 'memory,' alone. Detroit made it 14 wins in its last 17 meetings with the Bucks back on Feb 7 in Milwaukee, with a 126-121 OT win. The Bucks led by six points with just under four minutes to go in that game but couldn't hold on. As mentioned earlier, Sessions had 44 points in that contest, while Villanueva had 33 but Iverson and Wallace each had 27 with Hamilton 'exploding' for 39. When it comes to playing Milwaukee, Detroit seemingly "finds a way." Lay the points.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Stephen Nover

Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons
PICK: Milwaukee Bucks

As a small-market, non-marquee team the Milwaukee Bucks often find themselves getting underpriced. That's the case again in this matchup.

The Bucks are in a triple revenge spot against a Pistons squad that entered the All-Star break on a three-game losing streak, a 1-6 against the spread mark and losses in 12 of their past 17 games.

The Pistons have been a huge money-burner at Auburn Hills failing to cover in 21 of their past 28 home contests. Detroit has won one more home game than it has lost this season.

The Bucks are 11-5-1 against the spread on the road when meeting an opponent with a winning home mark.

Michael Redd is out for the season. Andrew Bogut could be out for the year, too. Starting point guard Luke Ridnour won't be available for this matchup.

So far, though, the Bucks have gone 2-1 when missing these three key players. They are averaging 122.3 points in their last three games.

Bucks coach Scott Skiles has shown great flexibility in turning Milwaukee into an up-tempo team because of Bogut being out. Ramon Sessions is proving to be much better than Ridnour.

The teams met 10 days ago and Detroit won in overtime, 126-121. Sessions completely out-played Allen Iverson. Sessions made 13-of-18 shots from the floor, scored 44 points and dished off 12 assists.

The Pistons lack the Bucks' chemistry and morale. They have a losing record since Iverson came aboard 47 games ago.

There are constant trade rumors swirling around that could factor in the Pistons' concentration level. Detroit coach Michael Curry is changing his lineup starting Antonio McDyess. The last time the aged McDyess was a full-time starter was 2001.

Perhaps the Pistons begin to get things turned around right here. I doubt it, though, and am willing to take this many points to fade Detroit again at home.

This is a one-unit play for me.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Dave Price

1 Unit on New Orleans Hornets -3.5

New Orleans has won 7 straight in this series, and the last 4 have all been by double digits with 2 of those lopsided wins coming earlier this season. Chris Paul is fully healthy and he is not going to allow his team to get off to a slow start post-All-Star break after the lousy way they ended their pre-All-Star break schedule. The Hornets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less and 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less. The Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Favorite is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Lay the number.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Carlo Campanella

Michigan State at Purdue

Michigan State brings their 20-4 record into Purdue (19-6) on Tuesday night and find themselves in a rare Dog role. Hosting Purdue has won 8 of their last 10 games, including a 12-2 home record this season and is 2-0 SU & ATS during the last 2 as host in this series. They look to repeat last year's 6 point victory over MSU at home and they'll get it, as we find Michigan State in one of their worst Situations, owning an 0-8 ATS record as road Dogs of 6 points or less! Backing the small home Favorite in this Big Ten battle.

Play on: Purdue

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Jorge Gonzalez

New Orleans Hornets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder    
Play: New Orleans Hornets -3.5

The New Orleans Hornets ( 30-19) will have their best player , Chris Paul, to start what is called the second half of the season.In reality, most teams have played well over 50 games with only 82 games being played on the season making this the home stretch before the playoffs in the months of May and June.   Paul couldn't stop the bleeding before the All -Star Break as his team lost six of eight games going into the break but his play in the All-Star Game, 14 points, 14 assists and three steals, should have his teammates and fans ready for a strong surge The Hornets who have been plagued with injuries all season will be close to having their four star players back. Paul, Peja Stojakovic, David West and Tyson Chandler have not all been on the court since January 17th. Chandler is still questionable and may not play in tonight's game. They may not need them all here in this spot as they have owned the Oklahoma City Thunder (13-39). The Hornets have beaten the Thunder seven straight games, by an average of 12.4 points per game, including twice this season, beating them in the Ford Center 105-80. Take the Hornets to win and cover here against the Thunder. Jorge has a huge play in the Marquee match-up between the ESPN Big-10 Battle between Michigan State Spartans and Purdue Boilermakers and will be releasing a winner in the NBA!

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Jrtips

NEW JERSEY vs. HOUSTON

The Houston Rockets(32-21) play their next five games at the Toyota Center as they continue their season-long six-game homestand tonight against the New Jersey Nets. Houston has won four straight and 16 of 19 at home, and goes for its sixth victory in a row against the Nets. Tracy McGrady will not play as he has been sidelined 17 games in 2008-09 with pain caused by last May's arthroscopic surgery. The Rockets are 12-6 this season without McGrady in the lineup.Yao Ming posted his 24th double-double of the season Wednesday with 24 points and 18 boards and has three straight double-doubles against the Nets, including the Rockets' 114-91 win on Dec. 22 when he had 24 points and 16 rebounds. The Nets (24-29) stumbled into the All-Star break with back-to-back losses, and Vince Carter, who missed last Sunday's 101-84 loss at Orlando with a sore right elbow, has struggled in his last two games in Houston, averaging just 13.5 points on 31.3 percent shooting. All-Star guard Devin Harris who is scoring 25.8 points per game and shooting 48.5 percent during his last four contests only scored 10 points and an assist as the Nets dropped their last game in Houston, 91-73 on March 10. The Rockets are plying well and should be well rested as they has been on a home stand for a while now. They are a bad matchup for the Nets with Ya Ming inside as shown by his 3 straight double-doubles that opens the game up for his perimiter shooters. TAKE HOUSTON-6

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Jim Feist

SAN ANTONIO SPURS / NEW YORK KNICKS
Take Over

San Antonio has the reputation in the minds of oddsmakers and fans as a dynamite defensive team, but they have slipped a bit with age, allowing 45.8% shooting by opponents -- 18th in the NBA. The Spurs can score, though, and are on an 8-1 run over the total. New York doesn't care a lick for defense, allowing 107.8 ppg, third most in the league. The uptempo Knicks are on an 8-0 run over the total. Have to look for a high scoring game right out of the break with two rested teams in this one. Play the Spurs/Knicks over the total.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Dwayne Bryant

Austin Peay +1 vs Jacksonville St.

This is a revenge game for Jacksonville State, who lost by 6 at Austin Peay last month. So with the revenge motive and the swing in home court advantage, it's quite possible that Jacksonville State could get the win tonight. Possible, but not probable.

First, Austin Peay has absolutely owned this series, winning 5 straight and 9 of the last 10 meetings. That is going to feel like a big gorilla on Jacksonville State's back tonight. As soon as Austin Peay goes on a run, they'll be thinking, "Oh no. Here we go again."

Secondly, I don't see a home court edge in this one. Jacksonville State is just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS at home this season vs. lined opponents, while Austin Peay has actually played better on the road (8-5 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) than at home (6-6 SU, 2-6 ATS). Austin Peay has also won the last two meetings at Jacksonville State. So again, I see no home court edge for Jacksonville State tonight.

Lastly, Austin Peay should be in a pretty foul mood tonight after losing at home to Tennessee State as a 12-point favorite in their last game. So motivation should not be a problem for Austin Peay tonight

Based on recent series history and each team's road/home performances this season, I'll make a small lean and take Austin Peay tonight.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

VEGAS EXPERTS

Atlanta Hawks at LA Lakers

Teams laying this many points coming straight out of the Break are always a bad proposition. Atlanta is 16-6 ATS when getting points this season and is much better than the team that lost here last year by 29 points. The Lakers are just 4-14 ATS this season when the total is 210 or higher and 6-17 ATS at home off a road loss. Three of the last five times Atlanta has been a dog, they have won the game outright. Take the points.

Play on: Atlanta

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

LT Profits

Missouri State +7.5

While there is no denying that the Bradley Braves are having a much better season overall than the Missouri State Bears, Bradley has sputtered badly as of late and cannot be trusted laying this many points in their current form.

After all, the Braves are 1-4 straight up in their last five games, and the lone win was by seven points vs. Evansville, a margin that would not be good enough to cover this spread. The problem has been a total breakdown on the defensive end, as Bradley is allowing their opponents to shoot a disgusting 50.2 percent from the field during this five-game stretch.

Missouri State is coming off of a 71-point effort in their last game, and they could be primed for another improved offensive showing tonight vs. this struggling defense. Sure, the Bears are just 1-9 on the road, but their last road effort was one of their best ones of the season in a covering, narrow 62-61 defeat at Wichita State.

Just as good defense stops good offense, bad defense can make mediocre offenses look good, and we feel that will be the case here as Missouri State scores enough points to slide below this rather large number.

Pick: Missouri State +7.5

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

James Patrick

Seton Hall vs. Marquette

A pair of high scoring Big East teams lock-up at the Bradly Center in Milwaukee and our Tuesday selection is Seton Hall - Marquette Over the Total.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Dennis Macklin

Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Prediction: Kentucky

DMack's laying a deuce with Kentucky tonight. The Cats are 7-3 ATS on the road and have REALLY taken care of business as a road fave of less than three covering fifteen of nineteen. Vandy is young and a bit down and it shows. This used to be a near impossible cour to win at but the Dores are just 4-8 ATS this year and only 2-7 as a dog. The SEC will be lucku to get four teams to The Dance so urgency with bubble teams like the roadie. Take Kentucky.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Mr East

Pennsylvania Quakers @ Princeton Tigers
Pick: 3 units: Pennsylvania Quakers +3

The Penn Quakers and Princeton are certainly used to playing for something, namely the IVY Title, but things have changed as these teams have struggled to get the players that are a touch above the rest of the Ivy. It still is an intense game, and a huge rivalry. I have a moneyline system that has actually won 87.5% of the time that is live in this one. The record stands at 26-4 to an average line of +126. The team that is the underdog in this situation, has actually won the game by an average of nearly 7 points. It is favoring Penn to not only get the cover, but to win the game outright! I;ll take the points in this one.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on New Jersey Nets +6

Houston has been one of the most overvalued home teams in the NBA this season. Odds makers have taken advantage of the fact that Houston wins a lot of home games by inflating its home lines to get the better of the favorite-loving public. Here's the proof. Houston is 19-6 at home this season but only 10-14-1 ATS. New Jersey has been a far better road team this season with a 13-13 SU mark and a 17-9 ATS record. Houston is just 9-20 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season, winning these games by only 2.4 ppg on average. Houston is also just 6-17 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season, meaning that when odds makers set a total in this range for the Rockets, they are expecting a close game. Take the points.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Dr. Canada

Leafs/Sabres over 6

Blackhawks/Lightning over 6

Flames -140

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Fairway Jay

Southern Mississippi -8 / 3 units

Austin Peay / Jacksonville State Under 149 / 4 units

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

UNDER - Total Play of the Day - from Pregame.com


Michigan State: The Spartans are a perfect 7-0 in true road games this
season and have not played since last Tuesday's 54-42 win at Michigan.
“Believe me, we have a lot of games left and some tough ones, but this
was a big step,” Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo said after beating
the Wolverines. Izzo's team went 5-14 on the road the previous two
seasons and is now within one victory of matching the school record set
back in 1978, which was Magic Johnson's freshman season.


PROJECTED SCORE: 61


Michigan State is 5-1 SU & ATS in its last 6 games overall.


The UNDER is 12-2 in Michigan State's last 14 Tuesday games.


Purdue (-3, O/U 128): The Boilermakers have won the last two home
meetings with Michigan State and own a 12-2 record at Mackey Arena
this season. The two losses have come to Illinois and Duke, and Purdue
is 19-0 when allowing 64 points or less this year. “You have to hang your
hat on defense because you’re going to have nights like this where the
ball doesn’t go in,” Purdue head coach Matt Painter said following a
49-45 win at Iowa. “If you can consistently get stops late in the game
you’re going to give yourself a chance and we did that.”


PROJECTED SCORE: 63 Favorite is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.


The UNDER is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings


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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

Boston Bruins @ Carolina Hurricanes
PICK: Boston Bruins

The Bruins are in the 150 price range on Tuesday. That is a range that I will occasionally venture into but it’s one I prefer not to get involved with too often with my star-rated and/or guaranteed picks. That is why you’re reading about this selection here because I do feel there is still tremendous value here with the Bruins. Even though Boston is winless in their last four games, two of those defeats came in the shootout. Also, in the other two losses they blew a third period lead at San Jose and they lost at New Jersey even though they outshot the Devils by a 31 to 18 margin.

The point of the information above is that the Bruins have played much better than the results they have to show for it over their last four games. This one sets up very nice because Boston is extremely hungry for this game while Carolina is coming off of a very satisfying win. The Hurricanes just hammered Buffalo in a 3 to 1 road win. However, they’re now back home where they have lost their last two games by a combined score of 10 to 1. The Bruins are so hungry for a breakout, offensive-minded game and we see that coming here, just like it did in January when the Bruins clobbered the Hurricanes 5 to 1 in their most recent match-up. There are some match-up issues here for the Canes and that, along with the other issues noted above, means one should consider a small play on Boston on the Money Line on Tuesday night.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

John Ryan

Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Lakers as they host Atlanta slated to start at 10:35 EST. AiS shows a 73% probability that the Lakers will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 26-4 ATS mark for 87% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites that are very good teams posting a >=+7 PPG differential facing an average team posting a +/- 3 PPG differential and after a loss by 6 points or less. Lakers are the BEST NBA team period and they have a great defense and offense that works together seamlessly in most games. AiS shows an 88% probability that the Lakers will score 105 or more points. Note that Atlanta is just 3-22 ATS (-21.2 Units) in road games when they allow 105 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is also just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Lakers are a solid 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game this season. With the All-star break came rest for the majority of this team and the Lakers are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days over the last 2 seasons. Take the Lakers.

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Re: Tuesday Service Plays

Rocketman

Michigan State @ Purdue 
Play: 1* Purdue -2.5

Purdue is 6-1 SU and ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less or a pick last 3 years.  Purdue is 33-14 ATS after a conference game the past 3 years.  Purdue is 23-9 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games.  Purdue is allowing only 57.8 points per game overall and 53.7 points per game at home this year.  Purdue is 2-0 SU and ATS at home vs Michigan State the last 3 years.  Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.  Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.  Boilermakers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Boilermakers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.  Boilermakers are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Boilermakers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game.  Boilermakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Boilermakers are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 vs. Big Ten.  Favorite is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Spartans are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  We'll recommend a small play on Purdue tonight! 

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