SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
15 Dime - INDIANA
10 Dime - BOWLING GREEN
INDIANA HOOSIERS - There’s no doubt the Illini’ are the more talented team here, but to ask them to go on the road and win by double digits is absolutely ridiculous, even against a struggling team like Indiana. Let’s remember, the last time the Hoosiers were at home they led Iowa by as many as 17 points en route to a 68-60 win. Since then, the Hoosiers were blown out by Michigan State (the league’s best team) and an eight-point road loss at Minnesota. Aside from the Iowa win, the Hoosiers have hosted four other games in the Big 10, and the largest margin of defeat was a 12-point loss to Ohio State… a game was just a seven-point margin with a minute to go. So, what I’m telling you is that Indiana has a HUGE home court advantage, and the further along they go in the season the better this young team is playing at home. Tom Crean is a good coach and has done his absolute best to get these guys to play together, especially when playing in front of the home fans in Bloomington.
Illinois, meanwhile, isn’t exactly a juggernaut on the road, losing all but two of their road games in Big 10 Conference play. And if you consider one of those wins was on December 30 when they were playing really good basketball and the other one was a ridiculous one-point win at Northwestern Wednesday night, how could anyone feel comfortable backing this team as a double digit favorite ON THE ROAD. Prior to Northwestern’s meltdown, Illinois’ last two road games resulted in a 13-point loss at Wisconsin and a 23-point loss at Minnesota. We’re getting tremendous line value here today for a couple of reasons. First, Illinois dominated the first meeting between these two back in January, 76-45. Secondly, the Illini rolled Purdue 66-48 just a week ago and Purdue is considered one of the elite teams in the Big 10. But also consider this… THAT game was at home where Illinois is a completely different team. I’m not falling for it. Hoosiers are 5-3 ATS at home this season and are currently on a 7-2 ATS run as a home dog, not to mention the fact they are 4-1 ATS following a SU loss. Glad to take the points with the home dog today.
BOWLING GREEN - I don’t care what Eastern Michigan has done in its last two games (covering despite losing), this is a HORRIBLE basketball team and they have no business competing in this contest with the Falcons. I know because I’ve been watching them closely recently with a couple of “mis-read” selections on Ohio and Buffalo minus double digits. The difference tonight is that we’re backing a team that has covered four straight and five of their last six. EMU is absolutely atrocious offensively, scoring 49, 45, 41, 51, 46, 45 and 52 points in their last seven games, and the only reason they grabbed two straight ATS wins in their last two games was because Ohio and Buffalo had horrible shooting nights themselves.
I’m completely certain Bowling Green will win this game, but how can I be certain they’ll cover the 14-point line at home? Well, first off, the Falcons score over 67 PPG at home and they have yet to face a defense as bad as EMU will bring to the table. Secondly, with all the low scoring output we’ve seen from the Eagles recently, BG will likely need only 64 or 65 points to get the cover… something they’ve been able to do much of the year when playing at home. The Falcons dominate the glass, dominate the free throw shooting and just about every other major statistical category. With a big game coming up against Buffalo, you can bet the Falcons will be trying to “fine tune” some things tonight in an attempt to get ready for their big game next week. It’s a big number to lay, but I’m comfortable laying it.
Re: SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
2 Unit Play. Take Indiana Hoosiers +10 over Illinois (POD)
Congrats on St. Bonny yesterday as they defeated Umass Outright with a big second half outscore the minutemen by 15. We have now secured winning week 5 of 6 in college hoops as we keep the cash coals rolling. In fact, that is in addition to the 8 straight weeks we have won in the NBA as we look for the 9th straight winning week in the NBA on Tuesday when the regular slate of games in the Association resumes. Once again, we hit 64% in January hoops and we are at that same mark in February. For today's game, let's roll with my favorite conference - the Big10. The other conferences that I enjoy focusing on including the Atlantic 10, the Metro Atlantic and the Ivy League. As per this game, I've written about Tom Crean and how much I enjoy him as a coach. Check the archives of the site and you will see an article that I wrote on February 10th entitled, "Cowboy Cashes with Crean". That article was written prior to the Hoosiers going into Minnesota and losing by just 8 points to a Gopher team that was coming off one of the worst losses of the season. I have faded Indiana at the right times (on the road for example at Illinois) and I have backed them at the right time (at home when they have played the likes of Iowa and won outright). This team does have talent despite having plenty of non-scholarship players at one point. Look, Crean can flat out coach. He is one of the hardest working and best coaches in America. In essence, he is white Tubby Smith in many ways if you look at his track record. Crean has slowly turned this rag tag players into a competitive bunch - at home - in the Big10. Heck, remember, this team nearly beat Michigan Outright at home after having a big lead and lost to them in OT (still covered the spread). I was on Indiana then too. This team took Minnesota down to the wire at home while 73% of the public was on the Gophers who were road chalk at Bloomington and covered the spread. This team saddled up and beat Iowa at home for their first conference win and to their credit, although they did not cover against Ohio State, they had a scoring drought of several minutes and at one point were only down 2 points at the 10 minute mark so they could have easily covered that game. Look, if someone came up to me and said they would give me 10 points in a total of 122, I would jump all over it. After all, this is a rivalry game. Remember, I rode Illinois as my 5* Big 10 GOM (which is 9-0 lifetime btw with 5* at 30-8 lifetime). Illinois routed this team by a score of 76-45 - but that was back in January 10th. And, the Hoosiers have improved drastically since that game. I like Indiana coming off a loss as they return home. Let me ask you something (and this is coming from a guy that has rode Illinois for more ATS covers than any team this year), what has Illinois done on the road this year of late? This team did beat NW by 1 point (but failed to cover - than God, I was on NW that game earlier this week for my pod), this team lost to Wisconsin by 13 on the road and this team lost to Minnesota by 23 on the road being held to 36 points. Heck, Indiana was far more competitive against Minnesota at home and on the road. Normally, I would place this game with higher value, but we have secured the winning week in cbb already. I think this is great value personally and would not be surprised to see a swing game back and forth as Indiana likely loses by single-digits and according to my numbers the 10 digit dog has a 32% chance of winning outright. Let's all be Hoosier fans today as the Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS following a SU loss and the Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road contests
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