Friday Service Plays

Re: Friday Service Plays

Tom Freese

Harvard at Cornell

Cornell is 6-1 ATS their last 7 home games and they are and they are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games overall. The Big Red are 5-2 ATS their last 7 league games and they are 6-0 ATS vs. teams that make 37% or more of their three point shots. Harvard is 18-40-1 ATS their last 59 games overall and they are 7-20-1 ATS their last 28 road games. The Crimson are 3-12-1 ATS their last 16 games as underdogs and they are 9-23-1 ATS off an ATS loss. PLAY ON CORNELL -

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Butler -13

Illinois Chicago lost at Wright State by 26 points. Butler just won at Wright State by 18 points. This one is a major mismatch. Butler is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series, including a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS at home. While Illinois Chicago has played Butler tough at home in recent years, it has been beaten up on the road with a 26-point loss and a pair of 16-point losses the last 3 seasons. Illinois Chicago is 2-12 ATS versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=57 points/game after 15+ games since 1997, losing in these spots by an average score of 52.4 to 69.9. Butler is 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 68.3 to 47.5. Take the Bulldogs.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

DUNKEL

Illinois-Chicago at Butler
The Flames are coming off a 64-53 win over Detroit, but are just 1-6 ATS after holding teams to 60 points or less in the previous game.  Butler is the pick (-12 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 15 1/2.  Dunkel Pick: Butler (-12 1/2). 

Game 851-852: Dartmouth at Columbia
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 46.165; Columbia 51.241
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 5
Vegas Line: Columbia by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dartmouth (+8 1/2)

Game 853-854: Princeton at Yale
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 48.539; Yale 53.139
Dunkel Line: Yale by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Yale by 2
Dunkel Pick: Yale (-2)

Game 855-856: Harvard at Cornell
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 47.371; Cornell 61.285
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 14
Vegas Line: Cornell by 15
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+15)

Game 857-858: Illinois-Chicago at Butler
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 55.064; Butler 70.739
Dunkel Line: Butler by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Butler by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (-12 1/2)

Game 859-860: Pennsylvania at Brown
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 49.254; Brown 47.480
Dunkel Line: Pennsylvania by 2
Vegas Line: Brown by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pennsylvania (+1 1/2)

Game 861-862: Loyola-Chicago at Valparaiso
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 50.758; Valparaiso 55.428
Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Valparaiso by 5
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+5)

Game 863-864: Villanova at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 72.502; West Virginia 77.582
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 5
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-3 1/2)

Game 865-866: St. Peter's at Rider
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 47.988; Rider 53.045
Dunkel Line: Rider by 5
Vegas Line: Rider by 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (+9)

Game 867-868: Iona at Loyola-MD
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 48.859; Loyola-MD 57.742
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 9
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 3
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-3)


NHL

Montreal at Colorado
The Canadiens are 0-5 on Friday nights and face a Colorado team that is 5-2 at home when the total is 6 or more.  The Avalanche is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has Colorado favored straight up by 1.  Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+100).   

Game 1-2: Detroit at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.659; Columbus 11.758
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-175); Under

Game 3-4: Boston at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.046; New Jersey 12.710
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-125); Over

Game 5-6: San Jose at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.005; Buffalo 12.442
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+140); Over

Game 7-8: NY Rangers at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.660; Florida 10.385
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+105); Over

Game 9-10: Chicago at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.247; St. Louis 12.336
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-165); 6
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+145); Under

Game 11-12: Vancouver at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.720; Dallas 11.476
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+135); Under

Game 13-14: Montreal at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.165; Colorado 12.087
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+100); Under

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Jeff Benton

Illinois-Chicago +13 at BUTLER 

For Friday’s free play, we’ll grab the big points with Illinois-Chicago at Butler.

Obviously, on paper, Butler would appear to be the easy call here. For starters, the 15th-ranked Bulldogs are 21-2, including 11-0 at home and 12-1 in Horizon League play, while Illinois-Chicago is 11-13 overall, including 5-7 on the road and 4-10 in conference, and the Flames have lost five of their last six SU and are 3-10 ATS in their last 13, including 1-5 ATS in their last six on the road. Furthermore, Butler is on a 5-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including a 16-point home win last year and a 26-point home victory in 2007, and the favorite has cashed in 14 of the last 18 meetings.

However, take a look at what these teams have done recently. Yes, Illinois-Chicago is in a 1-5 funk, but the victory came Tuesday, a 64-53 rout of Detroit as a 9½-point home favorite. Prior to that the Flames were competitive in losses to Youngstown State (68-60), Cleveland State (66-63) and Wisconsin-Milwaukee (63-62). Meanwhile, the Bulldogs looked very impressive in Saturday’s 69-51 rout of Wright State as a two-point road favorite, but before that they struggled to put away both Detroit (66-61) and Valparaiso (59-51), and lost outright at Wisconsin-Green Bay (75-66). During that three-game stretch, Butler went 0-3 ATS.

Also, these teams played a very competitive game nearly a month ago at Illinois-Chicago, with Butler rallying from a 28-17 halftime deficit to win 59-52 despite getting outrebounded (34-27) and shooting just 18-for-54 (33.3 percent) from the field. In fact, Butler made just seven two-point shots in the whole game. And although the Bulldogs covered that night, they were only favored by three points. Tonight, they’re a healthy double-digit chalk.

Speaking of which, Butler hasn’t exactly thrived in the role of big favorite this year, going just 2-5 ATS when laying double digits. Conversely, the Flames have been an underdog of more than 10 points just once all season. The result? A 74-55 rout of Vanderbilt as a 10½-point road pup on Dec. 3.

Do I see another outright upset here? Probably not, but it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world. Regardless, we’ve got a ton of wiggle room with the points we’re getting, and with Butler winning just two of its last seven games by double digits, this line is seriously inflated. Grab the value with the road underdog.

2&#9830; ILLINOIS-CHICAGO

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Karl Garrett

Loyola Chicago +4' at VALPARASIO 

G-Man is 9-3 the last 12 days with my comp plays, and 14-5 overall the last 19 days with my free play selections.

Take the points tonight with Loyola-Chicago as they visit Valparaiso.

Both schools are mired in losing streak, the Ramblers having dropped 5 straight, while the Crusaders have lost their 4, and 7 of their last 8.

Can't lay points of value with either side, so take the underdog who does own the decided series advantage.

Loyola-Chicago has won ALL 5 series meetings since 2002, and they have covered ALL 3 series meetings that have had a line on them. Included is a 71-56 rout of Valpo on the Ramblers home floor back on January 17th.

With both teams slumping, prefer to take the points with the underdog.

Loyola-Chicago gets the G-Man's nod.

1&#9830; LOYOLA-CHICAGO

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Scott Delaney

Today's Selection

Now on a 5-1 run with complimentary plays after giving you Temple over St. Joe's last night. Tonight we take Villanova against West Virginia.

Little strange to have watched Notre Dame blast Louisville last night, so I wonder if this rare Friday night clash in the Big East is smart, but will still take the shot with Nova tonight.

Jay Wright's bunch is arguably the hottest team in the Big East, and that's a significant statement considering the league includes top-ranked U Conn, and Top 10 schools Pittsburgh and Louisville.

And since this is just a comp play, we can take a shot with the road team here, since the Wildcats come in after trouncing nationally ranked Marquette and Syracuse after scoring 102 points in each game, winning by 18 and 17 points, respectively.

During the team's current six-game winning streak, Villanova has also knocked off Pittsburgh by 10 points and hasn't lost since a relatively close six-point loss to U Conn on Jan. 21.

Take Villanova here, as it rolls to the win and cover.

VILLANOVA WILDCATS

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Dennis Macklin

New York Rangers at Florida Panthers
Prediction: Florida Panthers

The Rangers broke through a 15 game scoring slump in last dropping a five spot on the Caps in last. That win also snapped a five game losing streak for the Broadway Blues. The Panthers came out of the break on a mission and are 6-2 in eight after the break. Thesse two have split last ten games but FLA is obviously a team on the up escalator. Take the Panthers.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Pregame.com Total of the day play (OVER - Total Play of the Day)


Villanova: The Wildcats will go for their seven straight victory and score
more than 90 points for the fourth time in a row. In fact, they have hit the
century mark in back-to-back conference games for the first time in school
history following a 102-84 win over Marquette on Tuesday. “Sometimes,
you’ve just got to outscore people,” Villanova head coach Jay Wright said.
“We don’t like that, but that’s the only way we’re going to do it tonight.”


PROJECTED SCORE: 70

The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Villanova's last 11 Friday games.


West Virginia (-3.5, O/U 138): The Mountaineers will look to slow down
Villanova by controlling the pace, although that still hasn't translated to
many wins lately. They have dropped four of their last six games with the
UNDER going 4-2 during that stretch. West Virginia has allowed just 61
points per game this season but has scored more than 63 only once in
the last four games. “Our defense was good enough to win - our offense
wasn’t,” Mountaineers head coach Bob Huggins said. “Nobody has ever
won 0-0. You’ve got to score the ball.”

PROJECTED SCORE: 73

The OVER is 6-2 in West Virginia's last 8 Friday games.

=========================================================

Charlies Sports- free pick

college basketball. princeton @ yale-2 For Yale men’s basketball coach
James Jones there are times that Chris Andrews’ stint with the Bulldogs that
has been almost too heart-breaking to watch.Jones has seen Andrews grow
from a prep school star to a team leader but with far too many bumps and
bruises along the way. Andrews has had two torn anterior cruciate ligaments
in his four years at Yale yet never even swayed from his desire to help the
Bulldogs anyway he could. Tonight Andrews and the Bulldogs play host to
Princeton at the Lee Amphitheater, yale covers-2.

=========================================================

my special system picks:

I am now on a 4 -1 run with these picks. I violated my rule about taking only
the best team of the day (one pick only rule) and I added one more which was
Gonzaga. The first pick won by a wide margin but Gonzaga just failed by one
point. I also violated my rule on that one by buying one point instead of two.
I would have had a push/cancel and gotten my money back if I had stuck by
the rules. So by violating two rules I won $20 with Utah State and I lost $20
with Gonzaga for a 0 for the day. At least I did not lose any money.

Because the spread is so huge on my system pick today: BUTLER, I am buying
three points and playing $20 instead of $30.  Take Butler at -10

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Cornell -14.5

Cornell crushed Harvard by 33 points at home last March and I like the Big Red to put another major beatdown on the Crimson tonight. Cornell is a perfect 9-0 at home this season, winning by 20.9 points on average. Harvard is 2-10 ATS in all lined games this season, 2-13 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons, and 0-6 ATS against conference opponents this season. Harvard is also 0-7 ATS after playing a home game this season. Cornell just crushed a Penn team on the road by 15 that Harvard lost to at home by 6. I'll lay the points here.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

Loyola-Chicago +4' at VALPARAISO 

Neither one of these teams is very good, but Valpo is on a whole other level of bad when you're talking about this match up. Guys, how can you possibly lay points with this Crusaders team? Yes, I know they covered 3 in a row, but that was on the road, as a double-digit dog in two of the three contests... So let's not get too carried away laying points with one of the worst teams in the Horizon (Detroit maybe worse, but Valpo just lost there SU in their last one).

I'm not saying the Ramblers are that much better, but looking over their 5-game losing streak, the only loss I didn't like was against Youngstown State, otherwise they haven't been nearly as bad as Valpo. And fact of the matter is Loyola-Chicago has OWNED this series, going 5-0 SU & 3-0 ATS!

From a match up standpoint, we saw what happened in their last meeting - a 71-56 Ramblers home win and cover January 17th. The Ramblers backcourt dominated the Crusaders, with Cerasoli and Blount combining for 43 points on 16 of 29 shooting and 6 steals! Look for more of the same in this contest, as Cerasoli is coming off a terrible 1 of 11 shooting effort and will be looking to bounce back strong.

Bottom line, in a pick between the lesser of two evils, the play here rests squarely on the road dog. I could easily see the Ramblers winning this one outright, but based on their recent play, we'll take the points and play it safe.

Take Loyola-Chicago plus the points over Valparaiso in this college hoops match up.

2&#9830; LOYOLA-CHICAGO

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Boston at New Jersey
Pick: UNDER 5.5 -135

The Bruins have carved themselves out a special season, and on the road have lost just five times this season. Credit has to go to tremendous goaltending and a focused defense as they have allowed just 45 goals in their last 25 road games, or an amazing 1.8 per game. The Devils have put together a pretty good season themselves, especially lately where they have won 11 of their last 13. They have done it the same way - keeping the puck out of the net as in six of those 13 games, the opponent scored one time or less. That Bruins' road defense has led to 18 of their last 24 on the road going UNDER, and this series has seen a 5-2-1 mark to the UNDER in the last eight played in New Jersey. I like the UNDER in this one.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Nite Owl Sports

Saint Peter Peacocks @ Rider
Pick: Saint Peter Peacocks +9.5

This St Peter's team is an astute sports capper's dream when playing on the road as a "big dog," as they are today at Rider. They sneak up on heavily favored, unfocused opponents in these games, because of their crappy 4-10 conference record, but in "our world" of point spreads, line value and "covers," they are like an ATM machine when playing in this preferred role, where they are 6-1 ATS in their 7 conf road games TY (all as dogs of +6>), not incl their early December loss at Fairfield, when they were playing only their sixth game of the season and had not yet "gelled." And if we limit their record as conf road dogs to those games in a point spread range of 6-12 points, the ATS range for this game, Peacocks have a 4-0 ATS record, with an average MOL (margin of loss) of just two points! The only negative trend stat that we see for St Peter’s in this game is that they are coming off a SU win in their last game (a win at Canisius as 6 point dogs), which puts them in a post-win mode, where they are just 1-2-1 ATS TY (compared to 9-3 ATS off a SU loss).

Contrast to Rider, who already beat Peacocks TY (by 11 on a “neutral” court at the Pru Center in Newark, NJ), is off a couple of wins, including a major upset of conf leader Siena, and cannot possibly be very motivated for this game. But looking at that earlier game between these two, we notice that Rider was up by 22 at HT, and then coasted the rest of the way. That, plus the above mentioned fact that Peacocks are off a win rather than a loss, limits this pick to two units. But Rider is just 2-3 ATS TY as a conf HF, with an average MOV of just two points in those five games, which won't get it done against this huge spread. Moreover, the road team is 6-2-2 ATS in the last 10 of this series, and St Peter's is 2-1-1 ATS in its last 4 visits to Trenton to play Rider, with an average MOL of just two points in those five games.

So take the generous points here, and get ready to make a stop at the ATM for a DEPOSIT next time, not a w/d.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Dave Price

1 Unit on Villanova +4.5

The Wildcats are rolling right now with 6 straight wins and I can't see the Mountaineers standing in the way of number 7.  Nova has covered the spread in 8 straight games, blowing out Pitt, Syracuse , and Marquette during this stretch by double digits and it is still getting no respect from the books.  While I expect the Mountaineers to hang around for a while, I like Nova to pick up another win on the road here and that is why I have to take these 4.5 big points.  WVU is just 2-9 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season while Nova is 7-0 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season.  Take the points.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Randall the Handle

COLORADO –1.04 over Montreal

The Av’s are definitely a team struggling to get points these days but a visit from the Canadiens is precisely what the doctor ordered, as the Habs credibility is dropping quicker than Alex Rodriguez’s. Colorado is coming off a loss in Minnesota but they really played a strong game and absolutely deserved a better fate. This is a game the players have openly stated that they’re really looking forward to, as they rarely get a visit from Montreal and for some, it’s the first chance they’ll have of playing against Montreal. The Pepsi Center isn’t buzzing much these days but tonight there will be a playoff atmosphere, as it’s Montreal’s third visit here in the last eight years. But more than that is the current condition these Habs are in. This is a fragile team that’s playing like one. They’re not scoring, they’re not preventing goals, the goaltending has been brutal and they’re not just losing, some pretty average teams are whacking them. Over its last three games the Habs have been outscored 18-6 by Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton. They have two wins over its last 11 and one of those wins was not justified, as the Kings outplayed them badly but a horrible penalty call with a minute left sent the game to OT and ultimately gave Montreal a win they did not deserve. Montreal has scored two goals or less in eight of those 11 games while allowing four goals or more seven times over that same span. This team is a grease fire right now and they’re under extreme pressure to perform well. The Av’s are the next team to pounce on them and the fact that the Canadiens are favored, albeit a small one is pretty ridiculous. Play: Colorado –1.04 (Risking 3.12 units to win 3).


COLORADO/Montreal under 6 –1.10

When a team is struggling as badly as the Habs are the first thing every player and coach will insist is that the team play responsibly on the defensive end. These are two teams that are both struggling and you can expect the intensity level to be high for this game. These two don’t score many to begin with and it’s going to take seven goals to beat us here. Frankly, I was a bit shocked when I saw a “6” posted for this one, as all of the Av’s posted totals this season have been 5½ with the exception of six games. Two of those six were against the Leafs. Anyway, this game should be a 5½ too. Play: Colorado/Montreal under 6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).


DALLAS -½ +1.05 over Vancouver (REG)

The Canucks pulled one out in Phoenix last night by a score of 4-3 for its fourth straight win and it’s safe to say that the Canucks have snapped out of its funk. However, this is an extremely tough spot for them, as they’ll be playing its third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs, all in the road. It’s also the third different time zone in those four games, making this assignment about as difficult as it gets. Furthermore, the Stars are among the hottest teams in the league with seven wins in nine games and as far as situations go, this is among the best I’ve seen all year that heavily favors the home side. Play: Dallas -½ +1.05 (Risking 3 units).

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Dwayne Bryant

W.Virginia -4 vs Villanova

Villanova visits West Virginia at 9 pm ET in a Big East clash that will be televised on ESPN. Is there a hotter team in college basketball right now than Villanova? The Wildcats have won six straight and have covered eight straight. 'Nova has averaged 99.3 points per game over their last three games. On the other side, West Virginia is struggling. The Mountaineers have lost three of their last four games and four of their last six.

Given Villanova's SU & ATS streaks, 'Nova's gaudy recent offensive numbers, and West Virginia's recent struggles, it looks pretty easy to take Villanova +4. But you know what they say -- "If something looks too good to be true, it probably is."

Motivation is clearly on West Virginia's side tonight. They need this game a lot more than 'Nova. Having the home crowd and a national TV audience watching should only add to WVU's fire tonight. This game reminds me a lot of last night's Notre Dame-Louisville Big East matchup, which the Irish won in huge fashion. Louisville was hot and Notre Dame was struggling mightily, but that home cooking on national TV in a must-win game sparked the Irish. I see the same thing happening tonight in Morgantown.

Look for West Virginia's defense (56 ppg allowed on 39.1% shooting at home) to stop 'Nova's offensive spree and give the Mountaineers a much-needed win. The Mountaineers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less. Make it 21-7 ATS after tonight. Villanova may also come out a bit flat tonight after a big win against Marquette in their last outing. Lay the points with West Virginia.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

Vancouver Canucks @ Dallas Stars
PICK: Over

Please note that the write-ups with my star-rated and/or guaranteed picks are more in-depth than the analysis provided with my Free Picks. Thanks for joining me today and good luck! Especially in the NHL, because it doesn’t get as much attention, there is a tendency for the odds makers and the bettors to be slow to catch up to an emerging trend. In this particular case, we see a perfect example of that. In most games where a higher-scoring contest is expected, you’ll see NHL totals posted at a 6. However, for this Friday match-up with the Stars hosting the Canucks, we’re seeing a total of only a 5.5 posted on this game! Vancouver is known to be the type of club that is involved in lower-scoring games. However, that has simply not been the case since the calendar hit 2009. Starting with their January 2nd 4-3 overtime loss at Atlanta, 12 of the Canucks last 15 games have totaled at least six goals! Note that with last night’s 4 to 3 win at Phoenix, six straight Vancouver games have tallied at least seven goals.

As we noted in the write-up for our play on the Canucks last night: The Canucks are finally putting things together as they were expected to. They’ve made a line change that has paid big dividends. Teaming Mats Sundin, Pavol Demitra, and Ryan Kesler on the same line has paid off and a positive momentum effect on the whole club has spun off from this change. The Canucks have won three straight and their offense has suddenly become much more explosive. We look for more from this explosive offense tonight and we also absolutely expect Dallas to bounce back from a shutout home loss in their last game – a 1-0 loss versus Phoenix on Wednesday. Note that, prior to that loss, the Stars had scored 50 goals in their last 12 games. As you can see, there should be plenty of offense in Big D tonight. Consider a small play on OVER the total in Dallas on Friday.

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Re: Friday Service Plays

DESTROYTHEBOOK SPORTS
2/13/09- Friday

Strong Opinion

Columbia -8

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