Wednesday Service Plays

Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Stephen Nover

Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons
PICK: Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta is an underdog to the Pistons. The Hawks are the better team. They have the fourth-best record in the Eastern Conference behind only Boston, Cleveland and Orlando. The Hawks showed promise last season in winning 37 games and extending the Celtics in the post-season. They already have won 30 times this season in 51 games.

Detroit is not a good team right now. The Pistons are tired, banged-up and their chemistry issues have gotten worse since they traded Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson.

The Pistons are playing for the fourth time in five days. They are off a 107-102 road loss last night to Chicago in which they were out-scored 17-2 during the final four minutes.

The Pistons are 3-13 against the spread following a loss. They have failed to cover in 20 of their last 27 home games. Tayshaun Prince (42:57), Rodney Stuckey (40:38) and Richard Hamilton (37:28) all played major minutes against the Bulls.

Iverson missed the game because of the flu. Stuckey is dealing with ankle and hand injuries. He's hit just 11-of-34 shots from the field during the past three games. Hamilton still isn't in 100 percent shape after coming back from a groin injury.

Atlanta played last night, too, but breezed to a 111-90 home victory over hapless Washington. Only one Hawks starter, Joe Johnson, logged more than 30 minutes. This is just the Hawks' second game in four days. Hawks coach Mike Woodson has been pointing to this matchup.

The Pistons are 3-6 in their last nine games, 2-7 against the spread. Trade rumors are swirling in Detroit. Morale is bad. The Pistons are limping into the All-Star break in desperate need of regrouping. This is an excellent spot to fade the Pistons.

This is a two-unit play for me.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Ted Sevransky

St. Bonaventure @ Rhode Island
PICK: St. Bonaventure

I’ve cashed more than one ticket this year backing St Bonaventure as a road underdog, and I’ll get right back to the window supporting the Bonnies in their most profitable role tonight. St Bonaventure has already won more games this season than they have in any year since ’01-’02. But second year head coach Mark Schmidt isn’t willing to rest upon that accomplishment. The Bonnies snapped a four game losing streak with a confidence boosting SU win over LaSalle over the weekend.

The numbers don’t lie. St Bonaventure is one of the rare college basketball teams that plays better on the road then they do at home. How do we know? Simple – a 7-2 SU record on the highway this year, and a 6-0 ATS mark as a road underdog, two meaningful trends that continue to be worthy of support.

The Rams hit 13 three pointers and won the turnover battle 17-5 in the first meeting between these two teams this year, but even with those impressive stats, they only won the game by a dozen. In fact, if you’re looking for wins by more than 14 points for Rhode Island in A-10 play over the last two years, you’ll find only one, against hapless Fordham. The Rams are not a great defensive team by any stretch of the imagination, consistently struggling to get enough stops to cover spreads as a big favorite – a 33% ATS proposition this year as double digit chalk. And with the coach’s son, senior leader Jimmy Baron hampered with back trouble, look for this game to remain competitive from start to finish. 2* Take St Bonaventure.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Black Widow Sports

1* on North Carolina -1.5

North Carolina is the better team in this match-up Wednesday. Not even Cameron Indoor can save Duke as they are simply outclassed and outmanned in the middle. The Blue Devils’ only shot to win tonight is to make better than 50% of their three-pointers, and we simply do not see that happening. UNC is going to dominate the paint with Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green leading the charge. Ty Lawson is going to be able to get into the lane all day because the Blue Devils simply don’t have the athletic guards that can stay in front of him. UNC really has the advantage across the board, and home-court is really the only thing working in Duke’s favor. But Duke needed overtime to beat Miami at home last time out, proving that they are vulnerable here. Their 27-point loss at Clemson before that game was an indicator that Duke is a bunch of fakers this season. UNC is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. The Tar Heels are 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Tonight is where you see the difference between these two teams, as the Tar Heels dominate from the opening whistle to the final buzzer. Take North Carolina and lay the points.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

(Power Angle Play Of The Week)

PHILADELPHIA -12 over Memphis

The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, while the 76ers are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Southwest. Yes Memphis is playing much better of late as they have gone 4-1 in their last 5 games, but we note that 4 of those games were at home and thier lone win on the road was vs the lowly Wizards.  Noew they head back to the road to take on one of the hottest teams in the league. The Sixers come in with a 13-4 mark in their last 17 games, including winning their last 3 and by an average of 10.7 ppg. The Sixers have been double digit favs 4 times this year and they are 2-1-1 in those and they have outscored their opponents by 16 ppg in the 4 games. The Memphis offense comes in 29th in scoring (93.3 ppg) and will be taking on a Philly team that has allowed just 90.8 ppg in their last 5 games. Prior to the win at Washington, Memphis had lost their 8 on the road and by an avergae of 13.4 ppg. Memphis has also gone 0-10 SU vs winning teams on the road and they have been outscored by 12 ppg in those games. Philly has forged their way to  a winning record and they won't let the Grizzlies slow them down here.

POWER ANGLE For This Play--- During the last 2 years, Memphis is just 1-16 ATS vs teams with a winning pct of 51% to 60%.


2 UNIT PLAY

Phoenix/ Cleveland Over 204.5

The Over is 5-1 in Suns last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, while the Over is 6-1 in Cavaliers last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Phoenix road games this year have averaged 206.7 ppg, while their last 7 overall have put up 217.1 ppg. Cleveland is not a team that likes to push the tempo, but they do have a solid offense and should get plenty of chances to score vs this weak Phoenix defense. True the Cavalier defense is solid, but Phoenix comes in averaging 118.4 ppg in their last 9 games. 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when they play on no rest have gone Over the total and I expect that trend to continue here.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Rob Homyak

5 units on North Carolina Tar Heels

Oddsmakers currently have the Tar Heels listed as 1?-point favorites versus the Blue Devils, while the game's total is sitting at 155.

North Carolina ran Virginia out of the gym, winning 76-61 at the Dean E. Smith Center Saturday.

Virginia covered as a 24-point road underdog while the final score played under the 164-point total.

Gerald Henderson scored the go-ahead basket with 3:16 left in overtime and Duke rallied from a 16-point second-half deficit to beat Miami 78-75 on Saturday.

The Blue Devils did not cover the 14-point spread, while the final score played OVER the days posted of 140.

North Carolina winning four of the last five meetings and cashing in five of the last six, including three consecutive wins and covers at Duke. North Carolina winning their last 7 games by double-digits. North Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 trips to Duke. The visitor has gotten the money in four of the last five. North Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games on Wednesday and 5-1 ATS in its last six after a non-cover. Duke 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 on Wednesday and 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight after a SU win.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY (CBB Game Of The Week)

(Power Angle Play)

Oklahoma -3 over Baylor

The Sooners are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, while the Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Sooners have simply owned this seires as  they have won the last 10 outright, with all but one of those games being decided by less than 4 points. Oklahoma is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 trips to Baylor and have outscored the Bears by 11 ppg in the 4 games. Right now the Sooners are ranked 2nd in the nation and come in having won 11  in a row, and they have outcored the opposition by 14.1 ppg in the process.The Sooner offense is ranked 11th in scoring (80 ppg) and 15th in FG% (48.7%), while their defense is ranked 143rd in scoring (66.2 ppg) and 23rd in FG% (39%).  Baylor brings a 5 game losing steak into this game and they have the 9th rated scoring offense (80.7 ppg), but that offense has struggled a bit in their 5 game skid as they have averaged just 72.2 ppg. THe defense has been a sore spot for this team as well as they are 264th in scoring (71.2 ppg) and 164th in FG% (43.0%), but that defense has been even worse in tehe last 5 games as they have allowed 84 ppg and they have allowed teams to hit a whopping 50.3% of their shots. The offenses are about equal, but the Sooners get a huge edge on defense and they have the rebounding edge (14th to 110th), plus all the momentum in the world as they look to get that #1 Seed. Baylor is reeling right now after a fast start and I really don't see them haviong a chance vs Griffin and company tonight.

POWER ANGLE For This Play--- During the last 2 years the Bears are 0-8 ATS vs teams that hit better than 45% of their shots, while allowing their opponents to hit less than 42% of their shots. 


3 UNIT PLAYS

North Carolina -1.5 over DUKE

The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss, while the Blue Devils are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. What a game this should be as you have two of the top 5 teams in the country squaring off at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Tarheels have certainly righted the ship after their 0-2 ACC start, as they have won their last 7 ACC games and by an average of 16.4 ppg. The Tarheels average 91.3 ppg on the year, including a healthy 87 ppg on the road and 88 ppg in their last 7 games.  The Tarheels also come in hitting 42% of their 3pt shots in their last 5 games and  they are outrebounding their foes by 7.5 rpg. The defense hasn't been spectacular as they allow 71.2 ppg overall, but theiir FG% defense (40%) is ranked 42nd in the nation. Duke is normally a good shooting team, but they have struggled mightily in theirn last 4 games as they have hit just 36.0% of their overall shots, including just 27.7% from 3 point land in their last 4 games. The Duke defense has been good this year as they have allowed just 61 ppg and 40% shooting overall, but in their last 4 games those numbers swell to 68.3 ppg and 44.3% shooting. Their is clearly something wrong with the Blue Devils, while the Heels have been rolling, since their 0-2 start to the ACC. Carolina is the more talented team in this one and even though Duke is home, he Bluye devils will not break out of their current funk. Carolina by 8+.


Houston -7 over SMU

The Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Houston has dominated this series lately as they have gone 5-0 SU & ATS in the last 5 meetings and have outscored the Ponies by 18.4 ppg in the 5 games. Houston is 5-3 in Conference USA play and have won their last 2 in a row. The Cougars did lose their 3 games prior to the current 2 game win streak, but one of the losses was i Memphis, where they hung tough for about 3 quarters of the game and another of their losses was an OT loss in Arizona. Houston's offense ranks 26th in scoring (78.5 ppg) and they average 77.8 ppg in conference play. Houston is also solid from the charity stripe as they hit 74% of their free hrows. (24th). The defense has allowed 67.7 ppg (168th), but tey do allow just 39.9% shooting (39th), plus they pull down 24.3 defensive rpg (40th). The Ponies offense scores just 64.2 ppg (256th) and they shoot just 43.8% from the floor (175th). SMU also ranks 307th in FT% (63.3%). The defense is decent as they allow just 65.2 ppg (118th), but they are not a particularly strong rebounding team, ranking 186th in defensive rpg (21.3).  Houston is just the more talented team in this one and they should have no problems getting a nice double digit win here.   

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