Wednesday Service Plays

Re: Wednesday Service Plays

LARRY NESS

North Carolina @ Duke
PICK: North Carolina

No. 3 North Carolina visits No. 6 Duke in a fairly important game tonight. The winner takes over first place in the ACC standings and strengthens its argument for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Carolina is 8-1 on the road this year (lost at wake 92-89), while Duke is 14-0 at home. However, the visiting team won both meetings last year. What's more, defending national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough could join Tim Duncan as one of the few visiting players to finish 4-0 in Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Tar Heels are 'loaded,' as all five starters are back from last year. Hansbrough (22.1-7.8), the 6-8 Thompson (11.3-6.6) and the 6-6 Green (13.5-4.5-3.1) start up front along with PG Lawson (15.3-6.6 APG) and shooting guard Ellington (15.0-4.5). The 6-5 Ginyard started LY but he can't find enough playing time TY (Green has taken his spot), while senior guard Frasor has had the same trouble, averaging just 2.4 PPG, after averaging 6.4 PPG the last two years. The 6-6 Graves (4.0-2.6) and 6-10 freshman Davis (6.7-7.4) are both finding plenty of opportunities. Duke's looked vulnerable lately, losing 74-47 at Clemson (worst loss since UNLV beat them 103-73 in the 1990 national championship game) and needing OT to 'escape' against Miami-Fl, 78-75 (as two TD favorites). Maybe that makes Duke more dangerous here but I'm not 'buying' that. Paulus (6.1) is back in the starting lineup (averaged 11.6 PPG the last two years), joining big guard Henderson (15.2-4.9-2.1) and Scheyer (13.0-3.8-2.8). Smith (9.5) is now coming off the bench. Up front, the starters are the 6-8 Singler (15.8-8.3) and the 6-8 Thomas (5.5-3.2), with the 7-1 Zoubek (5.6-4.4) and the 6-6 McClure (2.1-4.0) coming off the bench. Duke doesn't lose too often at home but as mentioned, winning in Durham has become 'old hat' for Hansbrough and Co. Carolina has won seven straight since its loss at Wake, with all but one of those wins coming by 15 points or more. In the end, Carolina is too athletic for Duke so I'm backing Hansbrough in his quest to go 4-for-4 in front of the "Cameron Crazies!" Take North Carolina.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Vegas Experts

Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic

The trends make this one almost a no brainer. Denver is just 1-8 ATS in Orlando since 1996. The Magic have gone 19-5 ATS this season vs. the Western Conference and are a perfect 9-0 ATS this season when playing with two days rest. The Nuggets are unrested and just 102-142 ATS playing on back-to-back days since 1996. Lay the points.

Play on: Orlando

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LT Profits

Oklahoma -3

The Oklahoma Sooners have ascended to second in the country in the latest polls, and deservedly so given they are playing as well as any team in the country, and they get the call here at a seemingly bargain price when they visit the Baylor Bears tonight.

Oklahoma has win 11 straight games straight up to improve to 23-1 for the season, and they have not minded going on the road inside the tough Big 12 Conference either. The Sooners are 4-0 inside the conference while traveling, winning at Kansas State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Iowa State by an average of +8.0 points with the smallest winning margin being six points, which would be good enough to grab the cash here.

Meanwhile, Baylor is heading in the totally opposite direction, losing five straight games both straight up and against the spread to drop to 15-8 SU and 6-9 ATS after a great start this season. Two of those losses during the current streak have come here at home to Kansas and Texas, and while those are two conference kingpins, they are now facing probably the best team in the conference.

We look for both of these teams to continue their current streaks here, which should result in a safe Oklahoma victory.

Pick: Oklahoma -3

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Wisconsin -11

Off back-to-back double digit wins over Illinois and at Penn State, the Badgers are ready to pay the Hawkeyes back at home for an overtime loss January 21. Iowa has really struggled on the road this season, having lost 8 straight road games, including an 8-point loss at Indiana to give the Hoosiers their first Big Ten win. While Wisconsin does not have the team it has had in recent years, it is still tough as nails at home with a 9-3 mark. Iowa has not shown nearly enough offensive fire power to compete in this one as it lives and dies by the three and is only averaging 58.3 ppg on the road this season. We'll lay the points.

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Nick Parsons

Atlanta at Detroit
Pick: Detroit

Detroit blew a huge fourth quarter lead at Chicago last night. Now they return back home and somebody has to "pay" for what the Pistons were handed by the Bulls last night. What does that mean here? A pure blowout for Detroit. Look for the Pistons to crush the Hawks as they make amends for last night's loss. Atlanta is coming off of a blowout win last night but that was at home against Washington. Tonight's situation is a much different scenario for the Hawks! Atlanta is just 11-15 on the road this season and the Pistons will CRUSH them here! Take a look at Detroit on Wednesday night.

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maddux sports

Today's Free Pick is Toronto +6.5

==================================

P.S.  My tools located Rider as a winner on
Monday and Seton Hall as a winner on Tuesday.
Both won way beyond the spread. My tools identify
Oklahoma -3 as the winner today. Watch it win way
beyond the spread. You can always buy a couple of
points for safety. I have added another tool to my
pick system but it is on another web site that I should
not mention here.   wink

Undefeated77    8)

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

John Ryan

Penn State vs. Purdue
Play: Purdue -11

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Purdue as they host Penn State slated to start at 7:00 EST. This would appear to be a lot of extra point to be giving PSU, but Purdue is the better team across the board. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 38-11 ATS since 1997 for 78% winners. Play against a dog after scoring 55 points or less in a loss to a conference rival facing an opponent off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points. PSU has lost 2 straight and beginning to show signs of fatigue. In their last game they were completely dominated by Wisconsin scoring just 44 points in a 54 -44 home loss and were 1 point favorites. This is just not a game that PSU - nor any team - can rebound from in a short period of time. The fatigue factor is most evident in BB games where they shot just 33% and 37% and now have to face a tough defensive minded Purdue team. HC Painter is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when playing against a good team sporting a win percentage of 60% to 80% after 15 or more games. Take Purdue.

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Scott Rickenbach

Memphis Grizzlies @ Philadelphia 76ers
PICK: Memphis Grizzlies

Yes, the Sixers have looked strong without Elton Brand and are coming off of some big performances. However, the Grizzlies have really turned the heat up on the defensive end in their most recent games. Memphis is talking like a confident team and their intensity is up in terms of rebounding and defense. Those are two key areas for an underdog if that dog wants to "hang around" in a game and that is precisely what we're expecting here.

The Sixers are being asked to lay a lot of points here when you consider how unappealing this game is to them. Philly is not motivated for a huge win here. They just want to avoid a letdown and notch a win before the All Star Break. This will result in some complacency on their part and the hungry Grizzlies have been playing well enough to be very dangerous in this spot. Ever since they got lit up from three point land by the Clippers three games back they have turned up the heat in a big way. The result has been some ultra impressive defense in their last two games and we look for more of the same here! Consider a small play on Memphis on Wednesday night.

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MTi Sports

Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Over

The Nuggets are 9-0 OU (+24.0 ppg) as a dog with at most one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field and at least 85% from the free-throw line. Take Denver and Orlando OVER.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Colorado +6.5

The public has been pounding the Cyclones to give us even better value in taking the other side. Colorado is not the same pushover that it was at the beginning of the Big 12 season but it is getting treated like one with this line. Iowa State has lost 6 in a row SU and ATS while Colorado has covered the number in 6 straight. Over its last 5 games, it played K-State to within 2, beat Iowa State by 6, lost at Kansas by 5, lost to Nebraska by 2, and lost to Oklahoma by just 5. The Buffaloes will have a lot on confidence going up against a team they have already defeated this season tonight. Take the Buffs!

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

DUNKEL

Memphis at Philadelphia 
The Grizzlies are just 1-5 ATS against the Atlantic Divsion and face a Philadelphia team that is 3-0 ATS in February.  The Sixers are the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has Philadelphia favored by 17 1/2.  Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-11). 

Game 501-502: Memphis at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 108.229; Philadelphia 125.523
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 17 1/2; 195 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 11; 188
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-11); Over

Game 503-504: Denver at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.557; Orlando 128.592
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 7; 204 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 8 1/2; 210
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+8 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: Washington at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 105.638; Charlotte 118.685
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 13; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 7; 188
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-7); Under

Game 507-508: Phoenix at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 114.837; Cleveland 126.619
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 12; 207 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 7 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-7 1/2); Over

Game 509-510: San Antonio at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 123.884; Toronto 114.425
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9 1/2; 198 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6 1/2); Over

Game 511-512: Atlanta at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 116.114; Detroit 119.740
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 3 1/2; 191 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 513-514: Indiana at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 115.890; Milwaukee 119.454
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 3 1/2; 214
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 515-516: Boston at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 126.536; New Orleans 119.741
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 7; 187
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 517-518: Sacramento at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 105.921; Houston 123.576
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 17 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 12 1/2; 213
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-12 1/2); Over

Game 519-520: LA Lakers at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 124.318; Utah 126.486
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 2; 214 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2 1/2; 216
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+2 1/2); Under

Game 521-522: Oklahoma City at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 115.565; Portland 124.450
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 9; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 11 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+11 1/2); Over

Game 523-524: New York at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: New York 116.403; LA Clippers 115.790
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1; 214
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 4 1/2; 218
Dunkel Pick: New York (+4 1/2); Under


NHL

Washington at NY Rangers
The Caps are coming off a 3-1 win over Florida and are 8-0 following a division game.  Washington is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 1 1/2.  Dunkel Pick: Washington (-140).   

Game 1-2: Chicago at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.247; Atlanta 11.611
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-220); 6
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-220); Over

Game 3-4: NY Islanders at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.697; New Jersey 12.710
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-300); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-300); Under

Game 5-6: Washington at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.583; NY Rangers 11.112
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-140); Under

Game 7-8: Ottawa at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.298; Buffalo 12.915
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-175); Over

Game 9-10: San Jose at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.005; Pittsburgh 11.855
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-130); Under

Game 11-12: Colorado at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.108; Minnesota 12.125
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-210); Under

Game 13-14: Phoenix at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.832; Dallas 13.303
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-210); Over

Game 15-16: Calgary at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.660; Anaheim 12.006
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-130); Under

Game 17-18: Montreal at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.165; Edmonton 11.649
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-130); Under

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

LA Lakers at UTAH +1 

Line smells fishy on this one, doesn't it? Well boys, fact is this is a tough spot for the Lakers, and as hot as they may be right now, I foresee plenty of issues tonight in Salt Lake and here's why:

First of all all, the Lake Show played vs Oklahoma City last night, and despite winning they did not cover as 12-point favorites. Although their record with no rest is a sterling 9-3 ATS, going right back out on the road, after coming home for just one game is NOT the best of situations. Focus and fatigue will be a issues tonight for Kobe and company, plain and simple.

Second, while Utah's been up-and-down this season, they have been great at home (as usual), going 20-6 SU & 15-11 ATS in Salt Lake. Let's not forget, they crushed Dallas by 28 and Charlotte by 19 in their last two home games, and returning home after a tough loss to Golden State is EXACTLY what this Jazz team needs.

Finally, while the loss of Bynum hasn't exactly shown over the Lakers last 5 games, they could've used him big-time in this match up. You see, like the Lakers, the Jazz are using a softish Euro-style player at the center position in Memhet Okur. Had they had Bynum, he would've eaten Okur for breakfast, but that will not be the case with soft-ass Gasol "guarding" the paint (we all know Gasol couldn't guard his shadow). In the end, for as good as the Lakers are, they are in a terrible situational spot, versus a team that's excellent at home.

Small play on Utah plus the points over the LA Lakers in this NBA match up.

1♦ UTAH


Drake -2' at INDIANA STATE 

Wow, the Sycamores win one game at Illinois State, and all of sudden they're getting respect from the oddsmakers! Why? What has Indiana State done all season, except lose at home, going 2-9 SU & 2-8 ATS... And now, all of a sudden, they're going to start playing well?! C'mon guys, we know better than that!

We learned a couple things from their last meeting, including that the Indiana State offense is painful to watch! They scored just 50 points on 32% shooting, including a pitiful 8% from 3-point (2 of 23)! Not only that, they turned the ball over 15 times, while forcing only 9 turnovers themselves, making for a 19-point loss about a month ago. What has changed since then? Sycamores have won just 2 of their last 9 since then (both wins in OT no less), and have continued to struggle on both ends of the court.

Finally, while Drake hasn't exactly been great this year either, having lost 6 of their last 7 prior to their lopsided 68-54 home win against Bradley. They have been head and shoulders better than the Sycamores, and I expect will build nicely off that confidence-boosintg win over the Braves 4 days ago. In the end, there's no question who the better team is here, and I expect the final score to reflect that with a solid Bulldogs road win and cover!

Take Drake over Indiana State in this college hoops match up.

2♦ DRAKE

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Scott Delaney

Today's Selection

North Carolina is your winner in the battle of Tobacco Road.

All due respect to Coach K and the Duke Blue Devils, but the Heels have long been considered as the best team in the nation, despite early struggles and surprise losses.

Duke's success this season has been labeled a bit of a surprise when it took place, and if such is the case, the recent blueprint of how to get to this team will have the Heels primed for this one.

Forget the fact the home team has won one of the last six games, I'm thinking more about the fast-paced game the Heels are going to sprint out to, shaking up Duke's garden variety, ball control offense.

The Devils have split their last four games on the hardwood, albeit both losses were on the road, and the setbacks were mainly because they were caught off-guard by a pair of teams that were able to run past that defense, and open a big enough lead that allowed Wake and Clemson to coast to easy wins.

Duke has managed to get out of the 70s just one time in 2009, while the Tar Heels have been past that plateau eight times. Since losing at Wake Forest, these Heels have won seven straight by an average margin of 16.4 points.

True, this will be the toughest contest since the Wake loss, for Carolina, but the Heels will be up for it just a bit more.

Lay the low road chalk.

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Matt Rivers

For Wednesday take the points with Georgia Tech.

I love Seth Greenberg as a coach and believe that he has done another phenomenal job with his Hokies this season. On the opposite extreme is Paul Hewitt who has a program that has regressed ever since the National Championship appearance five years ago and his Yellow Jacket team that just continues to lose game after game after game.

But I will still take my chances with the team that owns one conference win because the Jackets continue to play tight games and cover a lot of them. Yes G Tech just lost at home to a struggling Maryland team but once again the contest came down to a last second shot, literally. These guys have also played three overtime games. Hewitt's team continues to play hard and fight they just are not able to finish off opponents.

Virginia Tech at Blacksburg is certainly formidable and has overachieved this season in upsetting superior opponents as solid underdogs (Wake Forest, Miami, etc.) but laying a number like this is a bit much as the Hokies are not a run the break and blow you out type of a team.

I see this game staying fairly true to form. Virginia Tech should win in the end but the visitors led by Iman Shumpert and Zach Peacock will hang enough to grab that cash.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Craig Davis

I completely respect what NC State has done recently and I realize they are playing better as of late, but this Wake team is on a mission despite a few recent losses and they are far better, position-for-position.

Wolfpack will keep it close in the first half but Deacons will pull away down the stretch, winning by double figures.

Wake is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 while the Wolfpack are just 14-30-2 ATS in their last 46 home games.

Like our chances with the road team tonight.

2♦ WAKE FOREST

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Dave Price

1 Unit on Mississippi State -1

LSU got the Bulldogs bad in its house in late January. I expect the Dogs to return the favor tonight. Mississippi State has won 8 of the last 11 at home in this matchup and 4 of 5 overall the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs are 11-3 SU and 7-3 ATS in home lined games while 3 of LSU's 4 losses have come on the road. LSU is 4-13 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 3 seasons. Miss. State is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. Home court has it in this one.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Rich Green

ORLANDO -7.5 Over Denver

The Magic lead the Southeast Division of the Eastern Conference under their Head Coach Stan Van Gundy with a record of 38-12 Straight Up and 34-16 Against The Spread on the season. They have adjusted to the loss of G Nelson, and are well-rested. Positive trends for the Magic here include 11-0 SU and 8-1 ATS at Home in this Series, 9-0 ATS with two days of rest, 14-3 ATS versus good Offensive teams, and 19-5 ATS in non-Conference Play.

The Nuggets lead the Northwest Division of the Western Conference under long-tenured League Head Coach George Karl, and stand at 35-17 SU, and 30-21-1 ATS on the year. They rebounded off an embarrassing loss at the Nets to blow out the Heat on the Road last night, and go into the All-Star Break with their fifth straight Road event. Negative trends for the Nuggets here include 0-5 ATS after allowing 85 or less points, 102-142 ATS on back-to-back days, and 6-14 ATS as Road Dogs in this point range.

The line opened at Magic -7.5. We'll go with the Home Magic to cover for us here tonight in a Good Free Play.

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Wunderdog

Boston at New Orleans
Pick: UNDER 185.5

The Celtics have played nine games on the road vs teams with a winning record on the season and not one has reached 100 points against them. They are giving up just 86.8ppg in those nine. The Hornets have played 11 at home vs teams .500+ and no one scored over 100 (LA Lakers scored exactly 100). They are allowing an average of 88.5ppg in these 11 games. This total is simply set too high as this game is ready and likely to be played in the 80s. I'm backing the UNDER here.

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Good Morning to all!

I simply wish to thank Blade who takes the job everyday to give us the best forum i have seen. Also if any of you guys could help me getting some picks from the "DOC" it would be greatly appreciated. Also does anyone like any capper better than "Doc" i am new so any info would be really great.

Well great luck to everybody today!!!

;D

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Rocketman

New Mexico @ Air Force 
Play:1* Air Force +12.5

New Mexico is only 3-7 SU on the road this year.  Air Force is allowing only 61 points per game overall and 59.6 points per game at home this season.  Air Force is 7-3 SU at home vs New Mexico since 1997.  I feel like this one should be low scoring giving us great value in the home dog here.  We'll recommend a small play on Air Force tonight! 

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