TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4 Unit Play. Take Under 192.5 between Toronto @ Minnesota
Congrats on yesterday's winning day as we are en route to our 8th straight winning week in the NBA as we are 11-3 over our last 14 Selections. As per today, well, let's ride another Under except this time in Minnesota. We rode the Under as New Orleans visited Memphis yesterday in part because there were several injuries to both teams and the question begged who was going to score to get up to such a high total of 186? Well, the Under covered by about 20 points or more as that scoring load was never picked up as Arthur, Gay, Paul and Chandler did not play. Such is the case with this game as Minnesota will be without the services of one of the best up and coming players in the league who was establishing himself as a superstar in Al Jefferson. Folks, Jefferson can ball. It's a shame that he went out with this season ending injury as Minnesota was beginning to gel very well with the likes of Foye, Gomes, Love and Telfair. I actually think Minny likely wins this game Outright whenever one follows the theory, "bet on a team that just lost its star player". One can even look to as early as the Magic who played the Clippers after losing Nelson in a game which they covered relatively easily. One can look at the game when the Hawks were at Minnesota and manged to cover as well. The question begs, similar to yesterday's game, who is going to pick up the scoring? With no Chris Bosh, the Raptors lineup features Calderon, O'Neal (who blows), Graham, Parker and Bargnani. This lineup put up a ravishing 70 points at Memphis. Note, Toronto is a defensive team that needs to rely on its defense as their offense is questionable at best right now with no Bosh. Consequently, this is the first full game for the Twolves without big Al. Look for both teams to be sluggish on offense and rely on defense as the Twolves likely win this game - but more importantly, look for this total to dip under. The Under is 6-2 between these two teams when they were healthy in the last 8 games and the under is 5-1 between these two teams in Minny.
4 Unit Play. #728. Take Central Michigan +8 over Miami of Ohio
Although many clients received the win on Furman with the +8.5 line, I went ahead and took a push with the +8 line for our records. In essence, we kissed our sister as we look to duplicate the 5-2 week last week and our 16-8 (66%) run over the last 24 days with our PODs. For starters, I have respect for Miami of Ohio and what they have done this year. This team is a top 75 team, they are a 14 win team thus far, a solid 7-2 in conference play and the schools they have lost to for their 7 losses come against elite schools such as UCLA by 5 on the road, Pittsburgh, Xavier by 7 on the road, West Virginia, Dayton by 5 on the road, Ohio and Buffalo at home. I mention this to say that they are a worthy opponent. But, to catch 8 points in a game where Miami of Ohio only beat this team by 4 points last year at home, with over 66% of the public riding the road chalk, on a total of just 120 is great. What if someone told you that in a game that is expected to score 120 points, they wanted to give you 8 points which is about 6.7% of the points with the home court advantage - would you do it? I would. The question then begs how competitive can Central Michigan be? For starters, this is an evening game, there will be a decent crowd at Central Michigan for this contest, Miami of Ohio typically only scores 63 points per game on average and Central Michigan is the same team that beat top 140 Ohio at home as well as Ball State. Remember, Ohio - they are the same team that Miami of Ohio lost to at home. Central Michigan comes off a tough loss to Bowling Green at home and to their credit only lost by 1 point to Buffalo on the road - remember Buffalo? They are the same team that beat Miami of Ohio on the road as well. Thus, considering the matchups between these two squads in a low scoring game, with home court advantage, off a tough loss, I think Central Michigan will be very competitive here tonight. I do not expect this line to budge and I expect the public to take it up the chin a bit here as once again 2/3rds are riding the road chalk as The Chippewas are 4-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning record meaning they get up for the better teams such as Buffalo and Ohio and will likely get up once again for the Red Hawks at home.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
LA LAKERS -11.5 over Oak City (5 Unit)
250% Washington +9
250% Golden St -4
NBA: Dallas -11 Wager 550 to win 500
NCAA:Villanova -5 Wager 550 to win 500
NHL: Columbus Wager 700 to win 500
BONUS: Pacers +6.5
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
2.5-Unit Play. Take #744 Kentucky (-4) over Florida (9 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 10)
Note: Bump to a 3-Unit Play (12:10 p.m.)
I really gotta think that Kentucky pushed it to the max in practice over the past week. They have dumped three straight games and have had seven days to think about that, and their dwindling season. The main reason UK has faltered is nothing more than they just aren't knocking down shots. But, again, with seven days to prepare for this rivalry game - knowing that they need wins to cement their NCAA Tournament berth - and with a raucous home crowd behind them I expect a peak effort and actually I'm thinking blowout here. Florida had won seven straight in this series until UK took the meeting in the SEC Tourney. But I think that was somewhat of a turning point because I believe now that the Wildcats have a better team. Kentucky is actually 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games after an ATS loss - and two of those L's have come in the last three games. Kentucky wins this one convincingly.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #723 Providence (Pk) over South Florida (7 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 10)
Here we have two teams coming into this game off two completely opposite scenarios. USF is riding high after a thrilling upset of Marquette on Friday while Providence got absolutely embarrassed in a trip to Morgantown over the weekend. Perhaps I'm being stubborn, but I am still holding out for the Friars. I think that they are a deep, experienced team that has viable options on the perimeter and the interior. I like their point guard and I think they are due for a run. They've ripped through their murderous part of the schedule and now get a crack at one of the lower-tier teams. I think they take advantage. Providence has won all four meetings with South Florida and covered all four meetings. I think they bounce back and get a solid road win.
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #720 Michigan (+9) over Michigan State (7 p.m.) AND Take #732 Loyola (+9) over Wright State (8 p.m.)
This Loyola line really threw me. I understand that it's a rivalry game, but I was surprised that it only opened at Loyola (+3.5) and it wasn't until around 11:30 or 12 on Tuesday that it got bet up to 4.0. Wright State has proven itself the better team and Loyola has been a mess lately. But Wright State did just get smoked by Butler at home in a game they were way up for and they only won by six points recently in a trip to Youngstown State. It's a bit of a reach, but I think that Loyola is kind of due for a strong outing and that the nature of this game alone will help keep it within double-digits. In fact, I wouldn't be stunned to see Loyola pull the upset. I'm letting the spread guide me here, and then shifting an already advantageous situation even further to our side.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #745 Seton Hall (-1) over DePaul (9 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 10)
This Seton Hall team is starting to make some strides under Bobby Gonzalez. They are short on depth but they actually have a lot of experience in the wars of the Big East. Paul Guase, the defensive-minded point guard, gives the Pirates a leader and both Eugene Harvey and Jeremy Hazell give Seton Hall two scorers that top anything that the Blue Demons have to offer. This one is going to be tight, because DePaul has been putting up a fight, but with the short number we don't have to worry about anything other than our side winning. I'll take it.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #729 Marquette (+4.5) over Villanova (7:30 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 10)
Note: Add a 1-Unit play on the 'under' at 148.0. I didn't have a total at noon, and we don't add or change plays after we originally post so I can't make this "official". But I don't care about my stats, I care about making you money. And I absolutely love the 'under' in this game.
I actually do think that Marquette can get this road win. I think they are that good, and I think that they match up really well with 'Nova. They won the first meeting and I've noticed all season long that while the assumption is that the team that has in-season revenge will somehow cover the spread the second time it hasn't been happening. Marquette is 8-3 ATS overall, 15-6 ATS against the Big East, and 12-5 ATS on the road. Villanova has been playing great and have covered seven straight games. But streaks like that just don't keep up in this gig and after a peak performance against Syracuse they could have a bit of a flat spot. This is going to be a great game, and in the last five minutes I'd rather have the points.
1-Unit Play. Take #720 Michigan (+4) over Michigan State (7 p.m., Tuesday, Feb. 10)
This time of the year wins and losses are less about matchups and more about motivation. This game is, essentially, Michigan's season. They are desperate for it. Forget the fact that they are facing their rivals. They just need a win to stay afloat. Michigan State has been tremendous on the road this year, covering their last seven away from home. Kind of like the 'Nova stat: oddsmakers understand that and start to shade lines. Streaks come to an end. And home teams in the Big 10 have been off their chain. The hosts are 9-1 ATS over the last nine days and the home team in this series has won five straight and seven of nine. State playing without Raymar Morgan isn't a big issue in this play, but it is an issue nonetheless. John Beilein was always great in these situations at West Virginia and I think he digs into his bag of tricks to pull out an outright win tonight in lively Ann Arbor.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
9000* NHL CONSENSUS MONEY LINE WINNER
Los Angeles -150
EAST COAST SPORTS CONSULTANTS
NBA Elite NEW JERSEY
CBB Insider SOUTH FLORIDA
CBB Blue Chip BOSTON COLLEGE
"LEGS" DIAMOND (Later)
NBA Platinum MINNESOTA
CBB Diamond DEPAUL
CBB Gold LOYOLA CHICAGO