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TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
New York Knicks vs. Golden State Warriors
Pick: Golden State Warriors -4.5
The Oracle Arena will be the site of tonight’s east meets west clash between the host Golden State Warriors and the visiting New York Knicks. The Knicks have lost four straight games and covered the spread in only two of those losses. The Warriors are coming in off a home win over the Utah Jazz on Sunday winning 116 to 96 and covering as a 2 point home underdog.
New York is 21-29 straight up and 29-21 against the spread this season. The Knicks are 7-17 SU and 14-10 ATS on the road this year and over their last five games they are 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS averaging 109.8 points per game on 45.8 percent shooting from the field and they are allowing 113.0 points per game on 48.8 percent shooting. New York is 25-43 ATS when they allow 105 or more points in a game the last two seasons and Golden State is 13-5 ATS at home when they score 105 or more points this season.
These teams met back in November at MSG with the Warriors allowing a season-high 138 points and the Knicks won the game 138 to 125. This is a much different Warriors team that the Knicks will face tonight with Stephen Jackson and Monta Ellis in the lineup, both missed the first meeting at MSG. Golden State has more depth in their lineup for this meeting as injuries and suspensions limited them in the early months of the season but it is now beginning to pay dividends.
Golden State when coming off an ATS win and going ‘under’ in their last game and now installed as a favorite they are 71-49-4 ATS if they have a line range of 2-3.5 points their record is 20-8 ATS in that situation. The Warriors coming in off a SU/ATS win and going ‘under’ in their last game and now installed as a favorite of 2-3.5 points are 15-5 ATS if they are a home favorite their record is 11-3 ATS. If they are playing at home in that situation their record is 21-9 ATS their last 30 qualified games. The Warriors are 23-9 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog the last 3 seasons.
Golden State is 17-35 straight up and 24-26 against the spread overall this year. When playing at Oracle they are 12-12 SU but a very solid 15-8 ATS averaging 112.5 points per game on 46.9 percent shooting and allowing 109.4 points per game on 45.1 percent shooting from the field.
Data base research has uncovered key NBA Systems that are active for tonight’s game. Play AGAINST NBA teams after losing straight up, winning against the spread and going ‘over’ on the road in their last game if they are now a road underdog of 2-3.5 points, 28-46-1 ATS. Play ON NBA favorites revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite, with a losing record on the season, 58-27 ATS the last five years.
With significant technical and situational support for the host we will lay the short price with the Warriors as they avenge that early season loss to the Knicks.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (3*) Golden State Warriors 124 NY Knicks 108
Missouri State vs. Wichita State
Pick: Wichita State -6
The Charles Koch Arena will be the site of tonight’s Missouri Valley Conference clash between the host Wichita State Shockers and the visiting Missouri State Bears. Both teams enter tonight’s contest off losses, the Bears lost at home to Southern Illinois 72 to 64 as a 2.5 point home favorite while the Shockers lost at Evansville 61 to 52 as a 4.5 point road underdog.
Missouri State is 10-14 straight up and 7-15 against the spread overall on the year. When playing away from home they are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS averaging 58.3 points per game on 38.7 percent shooting and allowing 69.3 points per game on 48.3 percent shooting from the field. Over their last five games the Bears are 1-4 SU and 0-4 ATS being outscored by almost ten points per game. Conference play has not been any better for Missouri State as they are 3-10 SU and 3-9 ATS shooting only 38.3 percent from the field and allowing opponents to shoot 46.7 percent.
Missouri State is 5-15 ATS versus teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game the last 2 seasons, 9-21 ATS versus teams allowing <=64 points per game the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS in road games versus teams allowing <=64 points per game after 15+ games the last 2 seasons.
Wichita State is 11-13 straight up and 9-10 against the number this season overall. When playing on their home floor they are 9-3 SU and 3-4 ATS averaging 64.7 points per game on 46.0 percent shooting and allowing 56.7 points per game on 40.6 percent shooting from the field.
These teams met back on January 14 in Springfield with the Bears winning 68 to 55 as a 3.5 point home favorite. The Bears are in a negative situation for this meeting as they are 3-6 ATS as a road underdog this season and averaging 55 points per game their last three on the highway. The Shockers didn’t help their own cause in that meeting as they turned the ball over nineteen times and we do not expect a repeat performance in that department this time around.
This series has been dominated by the Shockers when they meet in Wichita with a 10-1 SU and ATS record in all meetings since 1997. We also see that the Bears after playing at home in their last game and are now installed as a road underdog are 19-34-1 ATS and if they have a line range of 3-6.5 points their record is 5-15 ATS.
With significant fundamental, technical and situational support for the host we will back the Shockers here as they avenge that earlier loss to the Bears and roll to an easy win on Tuesday night.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (3*) Wichita State 68 Missouri State 56
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
7* Wichita State (-6) vs. Missouri State
We see great value in the Shockers as a small home favorite on Tuesday night. Wichita State has won 5 of their last 7 including 4 straight home wins. They lost @Evansville by 9 on Saturday, so this will be a game in which they'll want a bounce-back performance. Despite out-rebounding Evansville by 10, they shot just 2-16 from three-point range. The Shockers are 9-3 at home this season, holding opponents to just 56.7 points per game in their 12 home games. Missouri State has lost 7 straight road games and is just 1-8 on the road this season (all losses coming by a combined 11 points per game).
After starting the season at a promising 7-3, Missouri State has posted just a 3-11 record since late December. In their last 6 road games (all losses), their margins of defeat are 24, 11, 12, 14, 5, and 18 points. They have one of the worst offenses in the nation; shooting an average of 39.1% field goals this season, and 31.3% from three point range. They have just one player averaging over 10 points per game. If Wichita State gets any lead whatsoever, don’t expect to see Missouri State make a comeback.
Wichita State is coming off of that road loss to @Evansville on Saturday, as well as their January 14th road loss @Missouri State. This is a great revenge situation for the Shockers who are playing very good basketball right now, against Missouri State, who has lost 7 of their last 10. Missouri State is just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 road games and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings @Wichita State. Go with the Shockers at home on Tuesday night.
5* Kentucky (-4) vs. Florida
Kentucky started conference play hot, winning their first 5 games by an average of 14 points per game. Since then, they have lost 3 straight by 5, 1, and 9 points. This is a HUGE game for the Wildcats, who have had a week off since their last game, to get a big win against the SEC’s top team (although probably a little overrated). They are 11-4 at home this season, and we expect them to notch their 12th win at home on Tuesday night.
Kentucky has one of the best offenses in the SEC, scoring 77.5 points per game on 49% field goals (8th nationally). Along with their great offense, they also allow just 37.3% field goals on defense (4th nationally). Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson give the Wildcats one of the best scoring tandems in the nation, scoring a combined 43.4 points per game between the two of them. Florida has a high-octane offense, but we don’t expect them to be able to contain Meeks and Patterson on defense.
The Gators have played just 6 of their 23 games on the road this season and boast just a 3-3 record. Their wins have come against Central Florida, Auburn, and Vanderbilt. They’ve lost against the “more talented” teams they have played; Florida State, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings between these two teams and we expect that trend to continue Tuesday. Go with Kentucky
4* Virginia (+11) vs. Florida State
FSU is coming off a big time resume’ building upset @ Clemson on Saturday. It was a huge win for the Noles who rallied from a 19-point second half deficit to grab the close win. They were catching the Tigers in a great spot for a letdown as Clemson had just come off a blowout win over Duke. This team was looking for a “signature win” and now they got it. Leading scorer Toney Douglas knelt at midcourt after the huge come from behind win and stated, “This win is going to go down in history.” Do you think this team is going to be concerned with a 1-7 ACC team just a few days after this monumental win? A UVA team they already beat on the road. No chance. Not only that, FSU takes on Wake Forest this Saturday which will also waver their focus here. A classic sandwich situation for the home team here which will lead to a letdown.
The one thing that stands out to us about this Virginia that is only 1-7 SU in the ACC is they have been fairly competitive in nearly all of their conference games. That’s a good mix for a cover on the road, getting double digits and facing a disinterested FSU team. If you take away the Cavs road game @ Duke where they were dominated, this team has really had a chance in every game. Their road games include a 10-point loss @ Minnesota, a 3-point loss @ Syracuse, a win @ Georgia Tech, a 3-point loss @ Virginia Tech, a 6-point loss @ Maryland and finally last Saturday just a 16-point loss @ North Carolina. The Cavs were down by 20+ @ UNC and battled to the end to close the margin. That’s a good sign for a dog. This team doesn’t quit.
The first match up between these two teams was an 11-point win for FSU on January 24th. Despite shooting only 35% (FSU shot 50%) and a terrible 28% from behind the arc (FSU shot 53% from deep) this game was not a white wash. Against UNC, this Virginia team went with a smaller line up and played zone daring the Heels to shoot from the perimeter. Don’t be surprised if they use the same strategy tonight against a Florida State team that has hit only 29% of its shots from outside the arc in ACC play (11th in the league). As we mentioned, this FSU team hit 53% of their 3-pointers @ Virginia, however that is not their strength and we don’t expect to see that happen again on Tuesday.
We look for FSU to come out flat as a pancake and this to be a close game with a good shot that UVA leads at halftime. The Noles will most likely get it together in the second half at home, but not enough to cover this one. Virginia fights to the end again and gets an easy cover.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
I'm taking the points with NEW JERSEY. Everyone saw how impressive San Antonio looked over the weekend, going into Boston and knocking off the defending champs. The Spurs were determined to make a statement and they did just that. The Spurs have admittedly been playing well of late. However, with everyone now suddenly believing that the Spurs are a contender again, we're getting excellent line value with their opponent, a team which is also playing very well of late, only doing so much more "quietly." Yes, the Nets lost their last game. However, they were playing the second of back to back games, were without Vince Carter (currently probable for tonight's game) and it was a road game at Orlando. In their most recent home game, the Nets absolutely dismantled a quality Denver club, knocking off the Nuggets by a score 114-70. Overall, the Nets are 4-1 SU/ATS their last five games. The Spurs have been nothing "special" as favorites, going 15-16-2 ATS when laying points on the road. Even with the win over Boston, they're still a money-burning 6-11 ATS against teams from the Eastern Conference. Conversely, the Nets have gone a respectable 11-9 SU/ATS against teams from the West while going a profitable 21-16 ATS in the underdog role, including a 4-2 ATS mark their last six. One of New Jersey's pointspread victories came when these teams faced each other at San Antonio a few weeks ago. The Nets led that game at halftime and ended up losing by only three points. The Spurs, who play at Toronto tomorrow, are right in the middle of their annual road trip. Even though they didn't play yesterday, coming off their massive victory, I feel that it will be easy for them to suffer a letdown. Note that they're just 5-8-1 ATS the last 14 times that they played a road game, which was the front end of back to back games. Unlike their guests, this will be the Nets' final game before the All Star Break. Having played so well recently, they'd really like to play well here to erase the bad taste from the Orlando loss and take some positive momentum into the break. Note that the Nets are 5-2 ATS this season, after scoring 85 points or less and 10-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. I expect them to bounce back with a huge effort, giving the Spurs all they can handle for the second time in less than a month. *Non-Conf. GOM
I'm playing on Dallas and Sacramento to finish UNDER the total. The Kings admittedly don't play much defense and they're off a particularly poor defensive effort last time out. That's the reason for such a big total though, one which I feel is too high. This will be the third meeting between these teams this season. The first two games both finished well below the total with final combined scores of 197 and 178. They had over/under lines of 202 and 207. Tonight's total, which has already climbed from its opener, is significantly higher, giving us plenty of room to work with. The Mavericks come off a high-scoring 115-114 game against Chicago last time out. However, that score is deceiving as 35 points came in overtime. Without OT, which is unlikely to be a factor tonight, the game would have produced 194 points, which would have been well below the number. The Mavs previous game, vs. Utah, stayed beneath the total. Note that the Mavs have seen the UNDER go 8-5 after scoring 105 or more points and 9-4 after allowing 105 or more. While the Mavs should still be able to score plenty of points, their offense isn't explosive with the recent injury to Jason Terry. The Mavs' second leading scorer had scored at least 20 in five of his last six games before getting hurt Saturday. For the season, Terry is averaging 19.9 points per game. Note that he averaged 28.5 points per game in the two earlier meetings vs. the Kings, leading Dallas in scoring in both those games. Look for tonight's game to prove lower-scoring than most are expecting with the final combined score staying beneath the generous number and the UNDER improving to 19-7 when the Mavs have faced a team with a losing record. *blue chip
I'm playing on TORONTO. Both teams are struggling and both could badly use a victory. The Raptors, who will likely still be without Chris Bosh, have lost six straight. The T-Wolves, who will be without Al Jefferson, have lost three straight. While Minnesota is playing at home, I feel that the Raptors are the more talented team and that the situation sets up nicely for them to snap their skid. Both teams had yesterday off. However, the T-Wolves played on Sunday while the Raptors last played on Saturday. Note that the T-Wolves also played on Saturday, making tonight their third game in the past four days. Sunday's loss was no ordinary one. In addition to losing Jefferson to injury, they blew a big lead, after leading the entire way, eventually falling by four at New Orleans. Even without losing your star player, that type of loss can be tough to bounce back from. While both players are critical to the success of their teams, I believe that Jefferson is even more important to the T-Wolves than Bosh is to the Raptors. Note that Bosh has 22.7 points and 9.5 rebounds per game this season while Jefferson is averaging 23.1 points and 11 rebounds. Jefferson's numbers have been even better than that recently, as he was averaging 26.9 points and 11.8 rebounds in his past 10 games. Assuming he doesn't play, the Raptors already have had a couple of games to adjust to playing without Bosh. That's not the case for Minnesota, as Jefferson wasn't hurt until the very end of Sunday's loss. Note that the T- Wolves are 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times that they were home underdogs of three points or less and a money-burning 6-11 SU/ATS their last 17 in that role. The one advantage which the T-Wolves have is that they're playing on their homecourt. However, a lot of players will point out that when on a losing streak, homecourt isn't necessarily always an advantage. The fans are typically restless and can be quick to turn on their team if things don't start off well. The Raptors have dominated the T-Wolves in recent years, going a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS. I expect them to continue that series dominance here as they step up and snap their skid, improving to 18-10 ATS (excluding pushes) the last three seasons, when having lost three or more consecutive games. *Personal Favorite
I'm laying the points with VILLANOVA. I played against Marquette in its last game. I felt that the Golden Eagles were somewhat overvalued and they ended up losing outright at South Florida. While there was probably some looking ahead to this game, losing to the Bulls shows that the Golden Eagles are more vulnerable than most people had previously thought. Tonight, the Golden Eagles will be playing their third straight road game and it comes at an extremely difficult venue. Indeed, while they're 12-1 at home on the year, the Wildcats bring a 25-game winning streak at the Pavilion?X their on-campus arena ?X into tonight's game. The Wildcats have had no problem beating top tier Big East teams here either. Last time out, they crushed #20 Syracuse by a score of 102-85. Prior to that, they had also beaten then-No. 3 Pittsburgh by double-digits. With Saturday's win, the Wildcats are now 6-0 ATS (5-1 SU) the last six times that they faced a team with a winning record, after 15 or more games. Despite failing to score even 60 at South Florida, the Golden Eagles are still averaging a healthy 80.3 points per game. However, the Wildcats, who allow only 59.5 points per game at home, are a profitable 5-1 ATS when facing teams which score 77 or more points per game. The Wildcats are also 16-9 ATS the last 25 times that they were coming off a victory over a conference opponent. With payback on their minds, look for the Wildcats to keep on rolling for another day, as Marquette falls to 2-5 ATS (1-6 SU) the last seven times that it was an underdog in the +3.5 to +6 range. *Annihilator
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