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MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Kansas at Missouri
Pick: Missouri -4
Analysis: Missouri is 6-0 ATS when playing with one or no days rest and they are 14-7 ATS their last 21 games vs. Kansas. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS vs. winning teams and they are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games overall. Kansas is 12-25 ATS when playing a team with win percentage of 80% after game 15 of the year. The Jayhawks 2-6-1 ATS their last 9 visits vs. to Columbia. 10* PLAY ON MISSOURI.
Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
7* NBA NON-CONFERENCE GOW 13-2 RUN
Houston at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee +5.5
Milwaukee caught some bad luck in its last game as it pretty much outplayed Detroit but ended up losing in overtime and lost the cover as well. That was the Bucks second straight loss following a bad game in New Jersey prior to that. They remain home where they are 14-9 on the season which is better than what the Rockets have done on the road. Milwaukee has not benefited from an easy schedule so far as 23 games have been at home while 30 have been on the road. That has led to the 13th ranked schedule in the league and the 8th hardest in the Eastern Conference. The loss of Michael Redd can not be overstated but Milwaukee is making things happen in his absence and after a few games, the Bucks are now familiar enough with the new lineup to get back into the groove. After dropping the first two games in his absence against Indiana and Minnesota, they bounced back with victories over Toronto and Atlanta before these last two setbacks. They are 1-1 at home and could feasibly be 2-0 if not for a missed free throw toward the end of regulation against the Pistons. They are catching a great number Monday. I went against Houston on Saturday and it was having a rough time with Minnesota for about three quarters before a 17-2 sealed the deal. It was a needed win for a struggling team but hitting the road could remain an issue. The Rockets are 13-14 away from home but since right before Christmas, they are just 3-8 on the road including some bad losses against Memphis, New York, Indiana, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Toronto. Note how the latter five all reside in the Eastern Conference. The Rockets, who are 20-10 within their own conference, are just 11-10 against the much weaker Eastern Conference showing how they play up or down to the competition. Road favorites are usually a good proposition to at least win outright but it is feast or famine with Houston who is only 8-7 straight up as a road chalk including a 7-8 ATS mark. Houston is 5-10 ATS on the road against teams with a losing record and coming off a win does not help with momentum as it does for a lot of team as the Rockets are 10-19-1 ATS after a victory and 5-16-1 ATS after win against the number. Tracy McGrady is coming off another bad performance and his 15.9 ppg average is his worst since 1999-00 which was his final season with the Raptors. That was so long ago, people may not realize that he even played for Toronto. He is shooting 39.3 percent from the floor, the first time in his entire career that he is shooting below 40 percent. While still a weapon, he is a small weapon as his injuries and limited game played are really cutting his game down. Ron Artest was brought in to help with some of the scoring responsibilities, but he has been a huge disappointment. He is averaging 15.7 ppg and while it can be argued that his scoring along with McGrady’s are better combined that those of McGrady alone last season but I’m not buying that at all. Artest is shooting 38 percent from the floor which is just the second time in his career that he is below 40 percent and the second worst percentage in his 10-year career. To have two NBA stars having their worse shooting year ever is the big reason that Houston, who was a sexy preseason pick to win out west, is struggling as bad as it is. 31-20 may not seem like struggling to some but over the last 23 games, Houston is just 12-11 and I consider that struggling. Along with Redd, Andrew Bogut is out eight weeks and point guard Luke Ridnour is also out with a fractured thumb. That is three starters who average a combined 43.6 ppg. Sure it hurts but other players will step up and we have seen it already as Charlie Villanueva has picked up his game. He is averaging 15.5 ppg and 6.6 rpg, but, in the last eight games, he averaged 23.8 ppg, including 28-point, 32-point and 33-point outings, and 8.0 rpg. Ramon Sessions, taking over for Ridnour, scored a career high 44 points and dished out 12 assists against Detroit in his first start. This team has options and because of the injuries, we get a lot of value. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite while Milwaukee is 2-1 ATS in its last three as a home underdog but that goes all the way back to November so you can see how those injuries are affecting this line. The Bucks get it done tonight. 7* Milwaukee Bucks
Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Play UT-Chattanooga (+2) over Samford* (Top NCAA Play)
Play Boise State (+1) over Fresno State* (Top NCAA Play)
Play Milwaukee (+5.5) over Houston* (NBA Bonus Play)
Play New Jersey (-160) over NY Rangers* (NHL Bonus Play)
Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Vegas Sports Experts
10* Take Jacksonville State (-11.5) over Tennessee State
(NCAA Power Play)
5* Take Charlotte (-1.5) over LA Clippers (NBA Bonus Play)
Bonus Hoops & NHL Plays are:
3* Take Missouri (-4) over Kansas (NCAA)
3* Take New Jersey (-160) over NY Rangers (NHL)
Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Las Vegas Insider - NBA
The Suns won yesterday in Detroit but I believe that's more of an indication of just how bad things have gotten with the Pistons, rather than saying anything too much about Phoenix. Believe it not, a win here would allow the Suns to match a season high with their third straight win. Stoudemire (20.9-8.2) continues play through trade rumors.and there can be little argument that he's a defensive liability. All in all Shaq (17.7-9.0) has had a good season but playing in back-to-back games is never a bonus at his age (team had gone 2-4 SU the last six times in which Shaq has played in back-to-back games). Nash (14.1-9.8 APG) is no longer playing at an MVP level and the team is no longer anywhere near as deep as it was a few years back (basically a seven-man rotation). As for the Sixers, Brand is now out for the season but the team hardly seems overly concerned. Philly is 12-8 without Brand this year and takes a 12-4 SU (10-2-2 ATS) run into this game. Iquodala (17.8-6.1-5.3) got off to a slow start this year but is now back to being one of the league's best all-around performers. Miller (16.0-6.4 APG) remains a quality PG and Philly really has a superb group of role players. Dalembert (6.0-8.6) is one of the league's most underrated centers, small forward Young (13.5-5.) is having an excellent second season (averaged just 8.2 PPG last year), guard Williams (12.4) is proving that LY's jump from obscurity (averaged 11.4) was NOT a fluke, Green's (8.5) scoring is down from the last two years (about 12 PPG) but he's still a solid player and Speights (7.8-3.8), a 6-10 rookie from Florida, looks like he may turn out to be a better pro than former Gator Noah of the Bulls. The Suns (17-30-2) have been one of the league's worst ATS teams all season and this aging team is playing its fourth game in six days, while Philly is playing its sixth straight at home.
Las Vegas Insider Phi 76ers
TV Game of the Week - NCAA
Everyone remember the Jayhawks' dramatic win over Memphis in last year's championship game, upping Bill Self's record in his first five seasons at Lawrence to 143-32 (.807). Self and the Jayhawks opened this year facing quite a challenge, as gone from LY's title team were guards Rush (13.3-5.1), Chalmers (12.8-4.1 APG) and Robinson (7.3-4.1 APG) plus frontcourt players Arthur (12.8-6.3), Jackson (11.2-6.7) and Kaun (7.1-3.9). As for Missouri, Mike Anderson suffered through a tough second year in Columbia. His team finished 16-16 after losing 11 of its final 16 games. Five Missouri players were involved in an altercation outside of a local bar in late January of LY, resulting in multiple arrests and team suspensions (leading scorer Hannah was kicked off the team). However, both Kansas and Missouri enter this game having exceeded expectations this year. Kansas is 19-4 (8-0 in the Big 12) and ranked 21st in the latest AP poll, while Missouri is 20-4 (7-2 in the Big 12), owning wins over both of its top-25 opponents this year. The Tigers beat then-No. 19 USC 83-72 on Nov 23 and just last week, beat then-No. 16 Texas in Austin, 69-65 (Feb 4). Collins (18.0) was expected to step up big time for the Jayhawks this year and the junior guard has dome just that, joined by freshman guard Taylor (9.7). Returning players Morningstar (7.3), Reed (7.3) and Little (6.0) have also done their part on the perimeter. The 6-11 Aldrich averaged only 2.8-3.0 as a freshman but this year averages 14.6-10.2, while posting 13 double-doubles. Freshman twins Marcus (7.6-5.0) and Markieff (5.0-4.5) Morris have done their share to aid Aldrich inside. However, this will be a very difficult road test for Kansas. The Jayhawks didn't play their first road game until Dec 23, losing at Arizona, 84-67. They then lost at Michigan St 75-62 on Jan 10, before opening Big 12 play 4-0 on the road. Let's not make too much out of those four road wins, though. The first two came over Colorado and Iowa St and the last two over size-challenged Nebraska (12th straight win over the 'Huskers) and slumping Baylor (Bears have lost seven of their last 10 this year, including five straight). In Missouri, the Jayhawks face a team with two excellent big men, the 6-8 Carroll (17.2-7.0) and the 6-9 Lyons (14.6-5.7) plus eight other players who have appeared in all 24 games for the Tigers. That allows Anderson to play his Nolan Richardson-inspired style of trapping and pressing schemes known as "40 Minutes of Hell." Tiller (7.7-3.4 APG) and Taylor (5.7-3.5 APG) share point guard duties, while the 6-7 Lawrence (8.8), Denmon (7.3) and English (7.2) all make solid contributions on Missouri's perimeter. Missouri is full of confidence these days (winning at Austin sure helped) and the Tigers are 14-0 SU at home this season, outscoring opponents on average, 89.2-to-62.4 PPG. Kansas owns the "recent history" advantage but "current form" favors the homestanding Tigers.
TV Game of the Week on Missouri
Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
I'm laying the points with MISSOURI. Both teams are red hot. Missouri is 3-0 SU/ATS its last three games and 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS its last eight. Kansas is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS its last eight games. The Jayhawks haven't played many tough road games yet though. The Jayhawks did beat a fairly solid Baylor team in their last road game. However, the Bears were (and still are) really struggling at the time, having gone 0-5 SU/ATS their last five games. Note that Missouri had an even more lopsided win against the Bears, prior to Kansas beating them. Other conference road games have come against Iowa State, Nebraska and Texas A&M. Those three teams, along with Baylor, currently all rank in the bottom five in the Big 12 standings. Note that the Jayhawks lost by double-digits when playing non-conference road games at Michigan State and at Arizona. Coach Bill Self acknowleged that this will be an extremely tough venue. He was quoted as saying: "It gets harder from here...I think it will probably be as difficult a setting as we've played in all year." Its true that Missouri hasn't had much success against the archrival Jayhawks lately, having lost five straight. However, while still very talented, this isn't nearly as experienced a Kansas team. Indeed, the defending champs returned just one starter while adding seven newcomers. On the other hand, Missouri coach Mike Anderson finally has the athletes and the depth that he needed to run his fast pace offense and pressure defense. That's been evident by the fact that the Tigers are leading the Big 12 with 84.2 points. They could have easily got caught looking ahead to this game but didn't, beating up on Iowa State by a score of 82-68 and reaching the 20-win mark for the first time since Anderson has been a coach here. The Tigers have won 15 consecutive home games, and they're averaging 90.5 points at Mizzou Arena this season. That's the third- highest mark in the nation at home. The Tigers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in lined games the last six times that they were playing with one or less day's rest in between games. Look for them to build on Saturday's victory as they remain perfect at home on the season and earn a rare win and cover vs. their hated guests. *Main Event
I'm playing on the Devils and Rangers to finish UNDER the total. The Rangers were embarrassed in their last game, losing by a score of 10-2 on Friday. That was their worst defensive performance in a decade. Off that debacle, I expect them to bounce back with a much better defensive effort this evening. Note that the UNDER is 7-2-3 the last dozen times that the Rangers were coming off a game in which they allowed four or more goals. Additionally, the Rangers have seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 11-2-2 the last 15 times that they were playing with two day's rest in between games. The Devils won 4-2 at New York when these teams met just after Christmas. That game saw two goals scored in the first four minutes but settled down from there on out. Note that the Rangers have seen the UNDER go 26-15-3 the last 44 times that they were attempting to avenge a home loss. While the Rangers were getting outscored 10-2, the Devils lost their last game by a score of 3-1. That's worth noting as both teams have seen the UNDER go 27-19 (excluding pushes) the last few seasons, when coming off a loss by two or more goals. Despite a few high-scoring games this season, 13 of the last 20 meetings in this series have still produced five goals or less. I'm expecting a low-scoring, defensive affair. *Annihilator
I'm playing on the Clippers and Bobcats to finish UNDER the total. Recent results have given us an extremely generous over/under number to work with here, one which I feel is too high. Yes, the Clippers have shot very well their last two games, both of them victories. However, it's never wise to over-react to one or two games and let's remember that they're still the fourth lowest-scoring team in the league. Prior to those two wins, the Clippers had lost seven straight, averaging 90.7 points and shooting just 41.4 percent. With the Clippers coming off a win at Atlanta, its worth noting that the UNDER is 6-2 the last eight times that they were coming off a SU victory, when listed as underdogs. The Bobcats are one of only three teams in the NBA which has scored fewer points than the Clippers. In fact, they're the lowest scoring team in the entire league and they also score fewer points at home than any other team. The Bobcats make up for the offensive deficiencies at the defensive end of the floor. They allow the fifth fewest number of points (92.5) on their home floor in the league and the sixth fewest overall. Without leading scorer Gerald Wallace (16.4 points) and also without Raja Bell (11.6 points) the Bobcats know that they will have to be even stingier defensively. Yesterday, they traveled to Miami and held the Heat to 96 points, only scoring 92 themselves. That marked the fifth straight time that the Bobcats failed to reach triple-digits in scoring. Note that they only managed 74 points the last time (1/28 at Portland) that they played the second of back to back games. That game finished with a mere 162 combined points. The Bobcats rarely see over/under lines this high, here at Charlotte. In fact, six of their last seven games here have had over/under lines of 181 or less. The only one that didn't was a game vs. the high-scoring Suns. That game had an over/under line of 199.5 but finished with only 174 points. Including that result, the Bobcats have seen the UNDER go 12-4-1 the last 17 times that they played a home game with a total ranging from 195 to 199.5. Look for this evening's combined score to also prove lower than most are expecting. *Non-Conf. TOM
I'm taking the points with MARIST. The Red Foxes badly need a victory. After playing reasonably well for an extended period, they've now lost seven in a row. However, a closer look shows that they're still fighting very hard and that they were competitive in nearly every one of those games. The last loss was a 1-point setback, in overtime, on the road. Six of the losses came by 10 points or less and three of the last four came by five points or less, including two by a single point. I believe that the Red Foxes are catching Rider at the right time and that the Broncs will prove to be the perfect opponent to allow them to return to the win column. If there's ever a spot for a "letdown" in the MAAC, it would come after defeating Siena. The Saints are the class of the MAAC and many expected them to go undefeated in league play. Yet, the Broncs handed them their first loss, last time out. Off that massive 90-88 win, I feel that it will be easy for Rider to overlook lowly Marist here. Note that Broncs are just 2-5 SU in lined games on the road this season. They're also 6-11 ATS their last 17 lined games, after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game AND 5-11 ATS their last 16 line games, after allowing 80 or more points. Its also worth mentioning that the Broncs are 0-3 ATS the last three times that they were favored by four points or less. They lost outright as -1.5 home favorites vs. Rutgers. Next, they won by one point against Iona, as four point home favorites. Most recently, the Broncs were favored by two points at Canisius and they lost by 18 points, 84-66. Rider did upset the Red Foxes here last season. However, Marist had won both the previous two series meetings here by double-digits. Rider comes in ranked third in the conference and the Red Foxes have been at their best when hosting the league's top teams. They lost by six vs. Siena here and they destroyed Niagara, the #2 team, by 18 points. Note that Rider lost by double-digits in its lone game vs. Niagara. I expect a highly motivated effort from the Red Foxes here as they snap their losing streak and improve to 8-4 ATS the last 12 times that they listed as home underdogs of three points or less. *Best Bet
Re: MONDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
3-Unit Play Take LA Clippers/Charlotte UNDER 196 ½
We hate to go with a Bobcats under again after getting burned the last couple of times we have gone this way but we just think this line is really off tonight. The Clippers haven’t been playing much defense and have scored a bunch of points their last two games but the Bobcats are missing a ton of players, and will be even more shorthanded following the trade of Adam Morrison and this team is only averaging 90 PPG in their last five. This team hasn’t been playing defense like the Top 5 defense it is lately and we think that with the current roster that Larry Brown will really have them stepping up their defensive efforts tonight.