SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
TV Bailout Blowout
BAYLOR / TEXAS TECH
Take: 3* TEXAS TECH
This is a classic home/road disparity game in college basketball. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are winless on the road, but a stellar 10-3 at home. They come off a 1-point loss at Oklahoma State as a double digit dog and face a Baylor squad that is 2-3 on the road. Baylor is 3-5 in the Big 12 and in a freefall, on an 0-4 SU/ATS run despite being favored twice! The defense has been horrible, allowing 95, 78, 89 and 75 points in those games. Texas Tech has a terrific offense and will score a bundle in front of the home fans. Play Texas Tech.
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THE SOCCER EXPERTS
40-16 SOCCER SIDES AND TOTALS
10-9 SOCCER PARLAYS
SOCCER / FUTBOL
France premier league:
Toulouse to win
France premier league:
Toulouse to win
Italy premier league:
AC MIlan to win
AC Milan/Reggina over 2.5 (Italy Serie A)
Werder Bremen/Schalke 04 over 2.5 (German Bundesliga)
Wolverhampton Wanderers/Coventry City over 2.5 (English Championship)
Bury/Dagenham & Redbridge over 2.5 (English League 2)
Lewes/Wrexham over 2.5 (English Conference)
ATS Sports Club
English Premier League:
Spain La Liga:
Real Madrid vs. Racing Santander over 2.5
Bayer Leverkusen vs. VfB Stuttgart over 2.5
France Ligue 1:
Le Havre AC vs. Stade Rennes over 2
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
7-1 in the past two days. 8*'s are 4-1, 7*s are 1-0, and 5*s are 2-0 in
9* Sun Belt Power Play - Denver +8.5 vs. Arkansas Little Rock
We were all over the Pioneers on Thursday night when they hosted one of the best teams in the Sun Belt, Middle Tennessee State, and dominated winning by double digits as a 2.5 point dog. We’re back on the horse on Saturday taking Denver + the points. They are playing their best basketball of the year. And while they have yet to win a road game this year, they have been competitive in all of their Sun Belt losses. They are 5-6 SU in conference play, however all six of those losses have come by 7 points or less and five of them have come by 4 points or less. This team is playing REALLY well right now beating three of the better teams in the league all within the last two weeks. Denver beat Western Kentucky, the best team in the Sun Belt, and Middle Tennessee State, the second place team in the east at the time. They also topped a solid South Alabama team. Their only loss in their last four games was @ Troy where they dropped a game in overtime. That was against a Trojan team that has now won 7 consecutive games.
While UALR is the best team in the Sun Belt West, they are not a team that dominates the score board. Most of their games are fairly close. The Trojans are 4-1 SU at home in conference play, however the largest margin of victory was just 8 points and that was in overtime vs. Louisiana Monroe who currently sports a 7-15 overall record. UALR already has a 4 game lead in the Sun Belt West so the desperation is not always there. That would be a mistake tonight vs. a red hot Denver team who just happens to be the best shooting team in the league. They are shooting almost 52% in league play and just under 76% from the line.
Both teams are very slow paced which will limit possession and always makes it tough for large margins of victory. The Pioneers are truly one of the slowest paced teams in the nation averaging just over 57 possessions per game which is 343rd nationally. Arkansas Little Rock isn’t much faster logging just 67 possessions per game which is 207th nationally. This is a low scoring series in general as the winning team has failed to get out of the 60’s in five of the last seven meetings. Don’t be surprised if Denver pulls the upset here. Take the points.
7* Prime Time Punisher - Wyoming +6.5 vs. Utah
This is a very dangerous game for the Utes. First of all, they already creamed the Cowboys earlier this year by the score of 91-67. That in and of itself will cause the Utah players to let up a bit for this one. It that first meeting, the Utes were hitting everything they threw up en route to a 60% shooting night. Conversely, Wyoming couldn’t get anything to go down as they shot just 35%. It was one of the Cowpokes worst performances of the season and they are ready for this one.
Wyoming has one of the most drastic home-road dichotomies in the nation. Basically they are really good at home and they stink on the road. This team is a perfect 13-0 at home and just 1-8 on the road. They shoot nearly 50% from the field and put up 80 PPG on their home court. We’re also getting some nice value here as Wyoming is coming off two terrible road performances (don’t be alarmed most of their road games are), against two top notch MWC teams in New Mexico and BYU. Now we get them as a fairly significant home dog which is a great spot.
The Utes are off a tough stretch of games. They hosted both New Mexico and BYU in a huge home stand winning both in close fashion. They were @ TCU on Wednesday and won by 8. Now they travel again today with a huge revenge game vs. San Diego State up next. It’s not a very good situation for the Utes against a hungry team that is really good at home.
Last year Utah lost @ Wyoming by 8 and many of the same players take the court today for the Cowboys. The Utes have shown some vulnerability on the road in conference play this year losing by 10 @ UNLV and by 9 @ San Diego State. We’ll look for Wyoming to put forth a huge effort and keep this close throughout. Take the points and the home team.
5* Home Dog Upset - Iowa State +8.5 vs. Missouri
ISU is catching Mizzou in a PRIME SPOT for an upset on Saturday. The Tigers are playing their second of back to back road games. Not only that, they are off a HUGE game and win @ Texas. It was a physically and emotionally draining game that was nip and tuck all the way. The game was tied with just 30 seconds left and Mizzou was able to pull out a 4-point win and road upset. Now they face a team they already whipped back in mid-January. We’ve said it many times before, when that happens, the rematch, especially a significant home dog can be a very solid situation. Now add the fact that Missouri hosts Kansas on ESPN Monday night and you can bet the Cats will have a rough time focusing on this one.
Many will simply look at Iowa State’s conference record, which is 1-6 and figure this will be a blow out Missouri’s way. Not so fast my friend. The Cyclones have actually played well for the most part at home this year. They are only 1-2 SU at home, however their home slate has been a tough one. They beat Nebraska, lost to Kansas and Oklahoma, the top 2 teams in the Big 12 who have a combined 15-0 conference record. In their most recent home game vs. #2 Oklahoma, they Clones fought tooth and nail and took one of the best team’s in the country down to the wire. The Sooners won by 10, however it was a 3-point game under 3:00 minutes to go in the game. ISU is always a tough out at home.
Mizzou is no great shakes on the road. They did beat Texas on Wednesday, however their other conference road games have resulted in losses @ Nebraska and @ Kansas State. They did pick up a 2-point win @ Oklahoma State. Their only other true rod game this year was a 7-point win @ Georgia, who just happens to be the worst team in the SEC. The Tigers thrive on pressure and creating turnovers. They’ll have a tough time capitalizing on that as ISU is the best team in the Big 12 in that category turning the ball over just 11 times per game. Iowa State also plays very solid defense allowing opponents to shoot only 39% from the field. Those two things will keep this one close throughout. The Cyclones will have the shot at the upset here.
5* South Alabama +7.5 vs. Western Kentucky
We see great value in South Alabama on the road on Saturday. The Jaguars are just 2-3 in their last 5 games; but all three losses were by a combined 6 points (2 point losses in each game). They are 4-2 in their last 6 road games and the two losses were by 2 points each. On December 18th, South Alabama lost to Western Kentucky at home by just three points. In situations like this, Western Kentucky may overlook South Alabama at home because they recently beat them on the road.
Western Kentucky is 7-3 in their last 10 games, but the margins of victory were just 9, 5, 4, 5, 10, 2, and a 21 point blowout; and that one blowout was against 5-19 Florida Atlantic. The Hilltoppers have already played two games this week, two road games against Arkansas State and Louisiana Monroe. They now have to come home to play an overlooked South Alabama squad. Look for fatigue to set in on Saturday as the Hilltoppers are playing their 3rd game in 6 days. The Hilltoppers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and the underdog in this match-up is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
In Western Kentucky’s last three games they have committed 18, 17, and 14 turnovers; in South Alabama’s last three games they have committed just 10, 8, and 11 turnovers. Ball security is one of the main reasons why Western Kentucky hasn’t had many blowout victories. It is also the reason that South Alabama hasn’t had many blowout losses. This game will be the same story as the Hilltoppers may get the win, but it won’t be by much. Go with South Alabama.
Re: SATURDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
I'm playing on UCLA and Notre Dame to finish UNDER the total. Recent results have given us an extremely generous over/under number here, one which I feel is too high. Yes, the Bruins have seen several consecutive games finish above the number. However, none had a total nearly this high. Their last game, which was vs. USC on 2/4, finished above the total. However, that total was just 130.5 and the teams finished with 136 points. In fact, if we look back at UCLA's last 20 games, we find that NONE of them had an over/under line greater than 144. Granted, the Irish have been playing in some high-scoring games recently. However, this is even a high total for them, as their last two games both had over/under lines in the mid 140s. While the Irish are certainly capable of putting up a lot of points, they've also been limited to less than 65 points in two of their last four games. They'll face a tough UCLA defense this afternoon. Always known for their defense prowess, the Bruins have held seven of their last eight opponents to 66 points or less and they're allowing only 58.7 points per game at home for the season. These teams have played each other three times since 1995. Those games finished with 141, 135 and 140 points. Overall, UCLA has seen the UNDER go 11-4 its last 15 games against teams from the Big East. During the same stretch, Notre Dame has seen the UNDER go a perfect 5-0 vs. teams from the Pac-10. Look for this afternoon's game to prove lower-scoring than most are expecting once again, with the UNDER improving to 60-40 the last 100 UCLA non-conference games which had a total. *Blue Chip
I'm taking the points with DUQUESNE. Yesterday, I successfully played against Marquette. The Golden Eagles were red hot and had an undefeated record in conference play. Yet, the lightly regarded South Florida Bulls proved to "want it more," and earned the outright upset. I felt that Marquette might become a little complacent and overlook the Bulls and I feel that the same thing may happen with "red hot" Xavier here. While I respect the Musketeers, with every successive victory, they are being asked to lay larger and larger pointspreads. Like Butler recently and Marquette yesterday, I feel that the Musketeers have become over-valued. Like South Florida yesterday, I believe that Duquesne is somewhat underrated. Like the Bulls, the Dukes have a hungry coach, still relatively new (Ron Everhart is in his third year here) with the program, looking for a "signature win." With the best team in the conference coming to town, I feel that Everhart's Dukes will be highly motivated to bring their "A Game." The Dukes are 9-3 their last 12 games. All three losses were by single-digits and two of them came in overtime. The Dukes, who are averaging greater than 83 points per game in conference play, were 13 point underdogs the last time that they hosted the Musketeers (1/31/07) and they scored the outright upset. While I believe that the Dukes, 2-0 ATS off a conference loss, have an excellent shot at another upset here, I also feel that the line is too high and therefore will grab the generous points with the undervalued home underdog. *A-10 GOY
I'm laying the points with GONZAGA. These teams are both red hot and both are perfect in their respective conferences. Both teams would love a victory against a "big name" non-conference opponent here in order to keep their winning streak alive and to improve their seeding in conference play. While the Tigers have the higher seed, I feel that Gonzaga will prove to be the stronger team today, particularly with the game being played at Spokane. With all due respect to the Tigers, who are playing very well again this season, Memphis lost an awful lost of talent from last year's team. On the other hand, this is arguably Gonzaga's most talented team ever - and that's saying an awful lot. While the Tigers are 7-9 ATS in February the past couple of years, the Bulldogs have fared well at this time of year, going 11-5 ATS in February. The Bulldogs rarely get to face a top tier non-conference team like this up here in the Pacific Northwest and they'll definitely want to make the most of the opportunity. They lost by a point in overtime to the Tigers here two years ago and lost at Memphis vs. the #1 Tigers last season, the first time in school history that the Tigers got to play on their own court as the top-ranked team. Look for the Bulldogs to make a statement and avenge those losses in convincing fashion. *Personal Favorite
I'm laying the points with GEORGETOWN. Recent results have given us a very reasonable number on what is now an undervalued Georgetown squad. The Hoyas are now 0-5 ATS their last five games. Last time out, they won by 10 vs. Rutgers, but failed to cover. That snapped a 5-game winless streak and I expect them to build some positive momentum from it. The fact that the Bearcats upset them 65-57 when the teams met at Cincinnati last month, should provide added incentive to deliver a blowout and keep the "pedal to the metal" the entire way. The Bearcats, who won vs. Notre Dame last time out, are just 5-9 ATS the last 14 times that they were coming off a victory over a conference opponent. That victory notwithstanding, Cincinati is certainly susceptible to getting blown out. Including a 71-50 blowout loss on February 1st, their most recent road game, the Bearcats are now an ugly 0-5 ATS the last five times that they were underdogs of greater than eight points. The Bearcats were getting between +8.5 and +11.5 points for all five of those games, yet the losses came by an average of 24.8 points. Last year's meeting here resulted in a 73-53 blowout win for Georgetown. That followed 15 and 19 point Georgetown victories over the Bearcats here in 2006 and 2007. I expect another double-digit victory this afternoon.
I'm taking the points with OREGON. The Wildcats managed to win at Oregon State last time out. However, that win came by only three points and they're still just 1-6 on the road for the season. I feel that the recent home wins over Washington and Washington State have caused the Wildcats to be somewhat over-valued and I fully expect them to have their hands full against what should be an extremely motivated Oregon squad, which will be looking to avoid matching its longest losing streak in more than 50 years. Note that the Wildcats, now 4-11 ATS their last 15 games played in February, are just 9-15 ATS the last 24 times that they were coming off a win over a conference opponent in their previous game. While they lost again, the Ducks played a very strong Arizona State squad reasonably tough, as they traded leads with the Sun Devils 10 times in that game. Their previous two games resulted in losses of three and seven points, with the Ducks covering the spread in each, so it's not like they haven't been competitive. The Ducks are back on the road after this game and they know that this will be one of their last good chances to provide the home fans with a conference victory. While their Pac-10 play has certainly been disappointing, keep in mind that Oregon did beat the likes of Kansas State and Alabama in non-conference action, crushing the Tide by a score of 92-69. Playing with revenge from an earlier loss at Arizona, I look for the Ducks to play with desperation, finally putting together a complete game and earning their first victory in Pac-10 play. *Best Bet
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