THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

THURSDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

Pick logic

Indiana / Philadelphia Under 214.5

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Bryan Leonard

Western Athletic Conference Game of the Year!   

Plays are rated from 2-5*s for strength & bankroll %

4* Fresno State at Hawaii

Must win game for the Warriors who have dropped six of seven to fall to seventh place in the WAC. It's important to stay out of the eight and nine seeds because those two squads must play in the dreaded play-in game come conference tourney time. While on paper Hawaii looks to be struggling right now the Warriors are just ending a terrible scheduling streak. Unlike teams on the main land the Warriors must take at least a five hour flight to any first game road site. And they have done a great amount of traveling as of late. After defeating Louisiana Tech at home on January 5th they played at Idaho and Boise State. They returned home to face San Jose State only to go right back on the road at Nevada. They then hosted Utah State before traveling once more to Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State. Now back home and happy to be here for two straight weeks we look for the Warriors to rebound from the recent losses. "Hopefully, this can bring a little sanity back to our lives," Hawaii head coach Bob Nash said. "Our guys can spend more time in the classroom, sleep in their own beds, and they don't have to worry about hopping on a plane every couple days."

Fresno State sits at 9-13 overall and just 1-6 in conference play. The Bulldogs have dropped six of eight and they own just two road wins all season. They beat Pacific by two points in early December and knocked off Cal Poly in overtime at the end of December. Fresno State is off a home overtime loss to Utah State last Saturday and they host Boise State Monday night.

Style wise this game features the inside game of the Warriors against the outside game of the Bulldogs. Hawaii takes it to the hole and forces the opposition into foul trouble. Defensively the Warriors are a tall team that makes you beat them from the perimeter. The problem for Fresno State is that playing at this late hour does havoc on the team's biological clocks, and that's especially true of a three point oriented team. We saw it last year when Fresno scored just 62 points in a 13 point loss here. That was their lowest scoring regular season output in conference play. The Bulldogs are on a 2-12 straight up road streak and they own just one conference road win the past two seasons. In a win and cover situation we would much rather back the host who has put their hectic schedule on the back burner.

PLAY HAWAII

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Lee Kostroski

8* Sun Belt Game of the Week - North Texas +5 over South Alabama

UNT was expected to be one of the best teams in the Sun Belt but disappointed early. The started the conference season with a 1-3 record losing one of those games by 6-points and the other two in overtime. After that they ripped of four straight wins to push themselves near the top of the Sun Belt West. Now they have lost two straight games to the hottest team in the league and the best team in the league.

That “hottest” team is Troy who beat North Texas one week ago for their 5th straight win. The Trojans then beat Denver last Saturday and they now have won 6 in a row. UNT had a 4-point lead in that game with 4:00 minutes remaining but went scoreless from that point on and lost. The best team in the conference is Western Kentucky and this Mean Green team had the Hilltoppers on the ropes at home on Saturday. UNT led the ENTIRE game including a 10-point margin with just 8:00 minutes remaining. The still led with under 1:00 minute to go but lost by 4. One of their key players, forward Eric Tramiel, whom head coach Johnny Jones calls their “best player” as of late was limited to only 10 minutes in the second half which really hurt the Green. Thus, if it weren’t for a few late collapses this team would have a 6-game winning streak.

South Alabama hasn’t had much of a home court advantage this year as their record in the Mitchell Center stands at 6-5. In conference play they are just 1-4 SU at home. Two of those losses have come by wide margins as Troy destroyed the Jaguars 94-70 and Middle Tennessee State also dominated in Mobile winning by 15. Their only home win came against New Orleans by just 3 points. The Privateers are just 4-7 in conference play. It was a down to the wire game in which USA led by just 1-point with under 1:00 minute remaining. If they hadn’t held on, this Jaguar team would be sitting at four straight losses. They are not playing well shooting just 39% as a team over their last five games. They are facing a team that is playing well despite their two straight losses. Because of that, we are getting great value with UNT as a dog here. Take the points.


8* ESPN Punisher - Wisconsin -3 over Illinois

The Badgers are in the midst of their first six game losing streak since Bo Ryan took over. However, the streak isn’t as bad as most are making it out to be. Wisconsin actually had a decent chance to win five of those games. The only game they were beaten soundly was @ Purdue back on January 11th. The others were ALL there for the taking. Since that 13-point loss @ Purdue, this team lost two overtime games, a one-point game and a 3-point game. They lost @ Illinois 64-57 however Wisconsin’s Jason Bohannon had a wide open three point attempt with about 25 seconds remaining which would have cut the Illini lead to two points. What caught our eye was the fact that the Badgers were able to keep the game close despite shooting just 35% from the field (Illinois shot 50%) and getting out scored at the free throw line by 9. Those numbers should turn around at home for Wisconsin which bodes well for them on Thursday.

Illinois was really playing well early in the Big Ten season, however we have seen some chinks in their armor the last few games. After beating Wisconsin in a game they should have won handily based on the stats, this team went to Minnesota and were thoroughly dominated 59-36. Next they faced off at home against Iowa and struggled in that game. The Illini were down at halftime and fought through for an 8-point win against an Iowa team that is still without leading rebounder Cyrus Tate. They are 1-3 SU their last four Big Ten road teams and they travel to Madison to face a desperate Badger squad.

Wisconsin has had one of the strongest home courts in College Basketball in the Bo Ryan era. In Ryan’s first seven years as the Badger head man, this team lost ONLY three conference games at home. That’s right, just three home losses in conference play in seven years! This year they already have two, as we stated they could easily be undefeated at home this year. One loss was in overtime vs. Minnesota. UW had a 9-point lead with just over 3:00 minutes left in the game and couldn’t hold on as the Gophs hit a 3 at the buzzer to tie it and they won in OT. Their other home loss Wisconsin had a 5-point lead over Purdue with under 4:00 minutes remaining in the game and lost by 1. Purdue was 3 for 3 from behind the arc in the last few minutes of play to seal the win.


5* Home Team Hammer - Denver +2 over Middle Tennessee State

While Denver’s 9-12 overall record or their 4-6 conference mark may not look very impressive, this team is dangerous right now especially at home. This team has been VERY competitive with all of their six conference losses coming by 7 points or less. Actually, five of those six losses have come by 4 points or less and three of them have come in overtime. This team could easily have a winning Sun Belt record. At home they have beaten some of the league’s heavyweights including conference leader Western Kentucky who is 9-2. This team shoots 50% at home where they are 3-1 in conference play with their only loss coming by 2-points in overtime to Arkansas State. It’s always tough for opponents to make the long trip to Denver and play in the higher altitude. This Pioneer team could easily have a winning Sun Belt record.

MTSU sits at 8-3 overall in the conference and don’t be surprised if they overlook the dangerous Pioneers. That would be a mistake as this Blue Raider team has now lost three straight conference road games including @ New Orleans who stands at just 4-7 on Sun Belt play. MTSU’s defense has really faltered lately allowing 48% to their opponents over the last five games. It’s a bad time to be coming into Denver with question marks on defense as the Pioneers are the top shooting team in league play at 51%. DU has five players in the main rotation that shoot over 48% from the field. They are very tough to defend.

Denver has been undervalued all year and they continue to be. This team has now covered 10 of their last 11 conference games and they get another one tonight.

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I doubt I will be on all day again today so if you see some plays don't be afraid to post them,thanks.

I wanna say thanks to everyone who helped out yesterday and I should be back to normal after today so thanks again for your help guys.

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Maddux Sports

Hockey

#1 - NHL - 3 units on Los Angeles +235
#7 - NHL - 3 units on Anaheim +115
#9 - NHL - 3 units on Edmonton +115
------------------------------------------------------------ Basketball

#702 - NBA - 3 units on Philadelphia -5.5
#724 - NCAA - 3 units on Loyola Chicago -7.5
#731 - NCAA - 3 units on Butler -11
#745 - NCAA - 3 units on Illinois +3.5
#767 - NCAA - 3 units on San Francisco +18

C**un Sports

Gonzaga Bulldogs -7.5 vs. Portland Pilots
PLAY: 2* Gonzaga Bulldogs -7.5

The Chiles Center will be the site of tonights late featured game on ESPN2 as the Gonzaga Bulldogs travel to face the Portland Pilots in a West Coast Conference clash. Both teams enter off SU wins in their last game and both teams are on extended winning streaks which for one of these teams will end tonight.

These two teams have already met once this season back on January 10 in Spokane with Gonzaga winning 67 to 50 but failing to cover the 21 point chalk. We understand the revenge motive but recent history doesn’t support that theory because last season Gonzaga defeated Portland at home on January 28th 79 to 41 and then defeated them about a month later in Spokane 73 to 51. In fact Gonzaga is 24-1 straight up in this series since 1997 and 12-0 straight up when playing at Portland.

The Pilots have struggled with success as these tech sets indicate. Portland is 25-44-5 ATS off a straight up win in their last game and if they are now an underdog they are 13-30-4 ATS. If the Pilots won and covered in their last two games they are a perfect 0-11 ATS. If Portland played their last two games at home and are now an underdog their record is 9-28-3 ATS. Since this is a conference game we decided to see how they responded in certain situations and they struggle here as well. Portland facing a conference opponent has posted a record of 42-64-6 ATS, if they are off a SU win they are 7-25-4 ATS and if they are installed as an underdog their record is 3-18-2 ATS. Finally we see that the Pilots are 0-10-2 ATS if they won straight up and covered the spread at home in their last game and are now a conference underdog.

Gonzaga after winning six straight games and now playing on the road have posted a record of 21-8 ATS, if they are a road favorite their record is 16-6 ATS. If the Bulldogs have won eight straight and are now a road favorite they are 14-5 ATS. Bulldogs after losing ATS in their last game and are installed as a road favorite they are 22-9 ATS. As conference road favorites they are 34-19 ATS and if they won their last game SU but lost ATS and are now a conference road favorite they are 13-2 ATS.

Gonzaga is 16-4 straight up and 9-9 against the spread this season. When playing on the road they are 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS, in conference play they have a record of 7-0 SU and 3-4 ATS averaging 79.4 points per game versus teams that allow 68.5 points per game, defensively they are holding opponents to only 56.0 points per game when they would normally score 68.8 points per game.

Portland is 15-7 straight up and 12-7 against the number in the 2008-09 campaign. When playing at home they are 10-1 SU and 5-4 ATS, in conference play they are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS averaging 68.9 points per game versus teams that allow 67.8 points per game, defensively they are holding opponents to 59.6 points per game and these are teams that average 68.1 points per game.

Our Team Performance Ratings Index indicates that the Bulldogs have an 11.2 point advantage over the pilots in tonights contest. Our Math Model Ratings Index also projects the Bulldogs winning and covering the 7.5 point spread by 4.5 to 6.5 points.

With significant technical support, history and situational support we will back the Bulldogs as they continue their winning streak and put an end to their rivals on Thursday night in Spokane.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Gonzaga Bulldogs 78 Portland Pilots 67

Matt Fargo

Northern Illinois vs. Ohio (NCAAB)
Feb 5, 2009 7:00 PM EST

Play: Ohio

I went against Northern Illinois on Saturday and that paid off with a win for Bowling Green. Right now, this young team is struggling mightily. The Huskies are 2-5 in the MAC but those wins came against Eastern Michigan and Toledo who are a combined 3-13 in the MAC and 7-37 overall. The best win this season for Northern Illinois came against Indiana St. of all teams and the Sycamores are ranked 238th in the nation. The other five wins came against teams ranked 259th, 320th, 279th and 311th along with Division II team Alaska-Anchorage. Northern Illinois is 5-4 at home but again the wins were not good but the losses were even worse as it dropped those four games by 13, 10, 15 and eight points. The road has been even worse as the Huskies are 1-6 in true road games with that one victory being against the aforementioned Alaska-Anchorage. Their three MAC losses have come by an average of 17.7 ppg. Northern Illinois started the season horrible and a scheduling quick had it off for three straight weeks during the holiday and testing season and that time off is not good for a team and the Huskies are just 2-5 since then. The matchup and the statistics heavily favor the Bobcats here. Ohio has not been playing good plain and simple but it is by far the superior team in this game. The Bobcats have dropped three straight games but the last two came on the road while the lone home loss came by just a point against Bowling Green. Prior to that, Ohio had won eight straight home games including two in the MAC so the Bobcats could very well be undefeated right now. First off, Ohio has played a schedule ranked 114th in the nation which is pretty strong and when you see that the Huskies have played a schedule ranked 304th, you can see why that edge is so big. Even with that the Bobcats have edges across the board in seven of eight categories that I look at. The lone exception is field goal shooting where northern Illinois has a 0.5 percent advantage which is minimal to begin with. It means nothing however as the Ohio has an offensive efficiency ratio of 101.6 compared to just 91.5 for the Huskies. One big advantage is at the free throw line where the Bobcats are hitting 71.3 percent compared to just 57.7 percent for Northern Illinois. If you think that is bad, take a look at the Huskies 49.0 percent success rate at the stripe over their last five games. That is laughable. The overall free throw shooting for the Huskies is the second worst percentage in the entire country. Another huge edge is the assist/turnover ratio comparison that has Ohio at 0.96 and Northern Illinois at 0.80. I say it all the time that the breakeven point is where teams need to be especially if playing weak teams. Northern Illinois fails at this miserably. Ohio is below the 1.00 barrier as well but the strength of its schedule has played a big part in that. The Bobcats fall into a great situation based on their recent losses. Play on home favorites of 10 or more points that are coming off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite in February games. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +18.7 ppg. Ohio is a solid 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games following two or more consecutive road losses. The Huskies are 0-7 ATS against teams that commit fewer than 14 turnovers per game while the Bobcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after a game where they scored 55 points or fewer. Chalk up another huge loss for the Huskies tonight. 3* Ohio Bobcats

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Dr. Canada
Game 1 - Kings/Caps over 5.5

Game 2 - Predators -130

Game 3 - Blues -130

Game 4 - Stars/Avs over 5.5

Game 5 - Blackhawks/Flames over 5.5

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Young Guns Sports

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3* Xavier From The Northcoast Line

Karl Gar***tt
Georgia Tech +9' at FLORIDA STATE

Sticking with another dog in the college ranks tonight, and backing the Yellow Jackets plus the points at Florida State.

This is just too many points, as Paul Hewitt's team is finally off the conference schneid, recording an outright win over Wake Forest their last time out. That win should give the Jackets a little shot of confidence as they head to Florida State to take on a Seminoles team that flirted with the outright win in their last game at home versus North Carolina.

Expect the Sems to suffer a little bit of a let down, as they allow the Yellow Jackets to stay too close for comfort in this one tonight.

Georgia Tech has won and covered in 2 of the last 3 series showdowns, and while an outright may be a bit of a stretch, I think the cover plus the points will never be in doubt.

Take G-Tech.

4♦ GEORGIA TECH + 8.5 Points

M ..................Lawr..........en**
14-0 ATS College Hoops Revenge Game Of The Week!
Play On: Providence + 2.5 Points
Villanova 94 Providence 91

Note: The Friars host the Wildcats in a key Big East battle with both teams coming off disparate results. That occurred when Providence dropped a 94-61 decision to top ranked Connecticut last Saturday while Villanova clobbered Cincinnati, 71-50, on Sunday. That sets the table for today's game as the Wildcats enter knowing they are 1-10 ATS in games off a win of 18 or more points when facing an opponent playing with revenge off a loss. On the flip side, the Friars are 8-1 ATS in this series when playing with 3 or more days of rest with revenge, including 5-0 SU and ATS at home. In addition, the underdog is 6-0 ATS in this series. With that, look for Villanova to dip to 0-4 ATS in games after the Bearcats. Providence is our College Basketball Revenge Game of the Week.

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Fellas huge fan of this website....absolutely luv it and wanted to say thxs for all the posts which have helped me for a while now.  Did anyone by chance come across Ben Burns for tonight? 

Thxs in advance

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ATS Lock Club
6 Wisconsin -3.5
6 Portland (NCAA) +10.5
5 Troy -3.5
4 Oregon St. +5

ATS Financial Package
4 Xavier -8.5
4 Seton Hall -5
3 California +1

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Beat Your Bookie

Daily Premium Hoops & Hockey Winners for Thursday


NBA Basketball


100* Play LA Lakers (+7) over Boston (NBA)
(NBA Hoops Game of the Year)

LA Lakers are 17-2 SU when the total posted is 200 points or greater
LA Lakers are 12-2 SU when playing their 2nd game in 5 days
LA Lakers are 6-0 SU vs. Atlantic Division Opponents this season
LA Lakers are 7-1 SU over the last 8 games

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Bob Balfe

NBA Basketball
Jazz -3 over Mavs

NCAA Basketball
Detroit +11 over Butler
Charlotte +3 over Rhode Island

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Wayne Root

Chairman- Oregon State
Millionaire- Louisiana Tech
Moneymaker- California
Perfect Play- Wisconsin

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bitt11 wrote:


Fellas huge fan of this website....absolutely luv it and wanted to say thxs for all the posts which have helped me for a while now.  Did anyone by chance come across Ben Burns for tonight? 

Thxs in advance


BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT! Under LA Lakers
TNT BLOCKBUSTER! Utah Jazz
Thursday ***ROAST*** Wisconsin
ANNIHILATOR! Stanford 

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panos1 wrote:


bitt11 wrote:


Fellas huge fan of this website....absolutely luv it and wanted to say thxs for all the posts which have helped me for a while now.  Did anyone by chance come across Ben Burns for tonight? 

Thxs in advance


BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT! Under LA Lakers
TNT BLOCKBUSTER! Utah Jazz
Thursday ***ROAST*** Wisconsin
ANNIHILATOR! Stanford 

Good look man...much appreciated

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Spreitzer
25* Hawaii

Big Al's
5* Conference Game Of Year Is On Wisconsin -4.5.

Brandon Lang
10-Dime Santa Clara

Kelso BB

50 units S Hall
10 units Lakers
5 units St. Mary's
3 units 76'ers

Smart Money

CBB
#736 UL Lafayette - 8

Smart Money
NBA
#703 OVER Boston 206

Smart Money
NBA
#701 OVER Indiana 215.5

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Alatex
15* Oregon St

KBHOOPS


NCAAB
5* Rhode Island -3 **POD**
5* Michigan -4
4* Middle Tennessee -2

NBA
5* Philly UNDER 215.5 +100
5* Dallas OVER 207.5 -115
4* Celtics -6.5 -115

EAST COAST SPORTS CONSULTANTS

WILLIE "D"
CBB Elite CHARLOTTE
NBA Insider INDIANA OVER

"LEGS" DIAMOND
BOOKIE MASSACRE NORTHERN COLORADO
Bookie Nightmare Charlotte U
Bookie Ball Buster Temple

RANDY MITCHEL
CBB Platinum NORTHERN COLORADO

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MTI Sports
4.5* IND
3* LAL

seabass

100* steam indiana ( i think )
50* RI
seton hall
20* kent
celts
no texas

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DOC

6 Unit Play. #746 Take Wisconsin over Illinois (9:00 pm ESPN)


3-Unit Play #701 Take Indiana/Philadelphia UNDER (7 p.m. EST, Thursday) 
;Denjoy

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Marc Lawrence:  Santa Clara @ San Diego Feb 5, 2009 9:30PM
SPORT: College Basketball Picks
PICK: Santa Clara 

REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Santa Clara.
Note: The Broncos travel to San Diego to take on the Toreros at the Jenny Craig Pavilion with revenge on their minds from a 55-50 loss suffered at home three weeks ago. Our database reminds us that this series has seen the visitor win the money each of the last seven meetings between these two. In addition, Santa Clara has long fared well against conference opponents that are playing off three losses in a row, going 22-6 SU and 20-7-1 ATS, including 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS when if the Broncos own a sub .500 record. Too many good numbers in Santa's favor to ignore. We'll grab the points against this struggling favorite.

We recommend a 1-unit play on Santa Clara.



Larry Ness:  Temple @ Xavier Feb 5, 2009 7:00PM
SPORT: College Basketball Picks
PICK: Xavier   

REASON FOR PICK: Fran Dunphy had an excellent second season at Temple, as the Owls got hot at the end of the year winning their last four regular season games and then took the A-10 tourney to gain an NCAA bid. The team lost to Michigan St in the first round but the 21-win season was quite a 'leap' from a group which won only 12 games the previous year. One-half of the team's one-two punch of Tyndale and Christmas graduated and 6-5 swingman Christmas (20.4-6.6) is not getting the help he needs this year. Brooks (10.8) and Inge (7.4) are mediocre at best in the backcourt, while only the 6-9 Lavoy (10.2-7.2) is much of an inside contributor. The 7-0 Olmos (7.2-3.2) can best be described as "almost" being a real basketball player. Xavier is coming off a 30-win season last year, making it all the away to the Elite 8. Sean Miller is one of the nation's best young coaches and he's proving that point again this year. The Musketeers lost a number of key contributors off last year's team but with the addition of three freshman, are right back among the nation's elite teams. Xavier enters this game 19-2 overall and 7-0 in the A-10, while ranked No. 9 in the latest AP poll. The 6-8 Brown (14.0-5.9) is the team's leading scorer, with 6-6 swingman Raymond (13.2-4.4) and Anderson (11.0-5.8) right behind him (Brown shoots 54.7 percent from the floor and Anderson, 52.3). The 6-9 Love (7.0-6.3) is the team's leading rebounder and the 6-5 Jackson (6.4) has found a way to get some more playing time TY, after averaging only 2.4 PPG on LY's 'loaded' team. The freshman of note are starting PG Holloway (6.5) plus the 7-0 Frease (6.4-3.9) and guard Redford (4.9), who both come off the bench. These teams met just one last year, with Temple shocking Xavier 78-59 as seven-point underdogs in Philly. Here in Cincinnati, the Cintas Center should be 'rocking' and the Musketeers should win a rout. Lay the points.


Lee Kostroski:  Valparaiso @ Wright State Feb 5, 2009 7:00PM
SPORT: College Basketball Picks
PICK: Valparaiso 
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON Valparaiso + vs. Wright State on Thursday night at 7:00 PM EST

This Valpo team was dealt a key blow in early January when they lost guard Brandon McPherson for the season. He was averaging 10 PPG but had been bothered by a bad knee for most of the year. He had only played in 5 games, however he was expected to be a key contibutor and the team suffered when he went out. After his loss, this team was really playing poorly losing three of their next four games and all three losses were double digits. They have since righted the ship and are playing their best basketball of the season.

The Crusaders just finished tipping off against the three top teams in the Horizon League. UW Milwaukee, UW Green Bay and Butler have a combined 29-6 conference record and Valparaiso hung tight with each and actually beat UWM. After their win over the Panthers, they lost a tight game to UWGB taking the Phoenix to the wire before losing by 8. Then last Saturday, they traveled to Butler who is now 10-1 in conference play and gave the Bulldogs quite a scare. The Crusaders hung tight throughout and actually trailed 52-50 with just over 1:00 minute remaining before falling 59-51. Now they head to take on an over confident Wright State team.

We expect the Raiders to absolutely over look this Valpo team. There are two reasons behind that. The first is the fact that they already beat them handily on the road. That 64-48 win back on January 10th was when Valparaiso was right in the midst of playing its worst basketball of the year. They shot just 33% from the field and Wright State controlled the game. Now at home, don’t expect the Raiders to play with the passion needed here. Secondly, Wright State has a HUGE game on deck @ Butler this Saturday. Those two factors almost guarantee we won’t get an all out effort and focus from the home team. That’s why Valpo stays close throughout and gets the cover.



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