TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4 Unit Play. Take Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs
We are off and running for our 7th straight winning week in the NBA as the Gambling Gods obviously like us and allowed the Spurs/Warriors game to go into OT so we can obtain the Over. I have always said, just because we have won 6 straight weeks, that has no bearing on the fact that we can't kick ass this week. The Nuggs are one of those teams that show up against some of the better teams in the league in a big way and will lay down to teams that are weaker. But, with the "General" as I like to call Mr. Billups, this team has stability that it has not had in its franchise in quite some time. Nice going Joe Dumars, you have poisoned the Detroit Pistons with the toxin known as A.I. There is no remedy now, your sub .500 is going through a relentless cancer that is spreading all over. Keep in mind that San Antonio just played Golden State yesterday and that game went into Overtime. The Spurs are not the type of team that has a huge and effective bench and this team will be a bit tired coming into today playing back to back. On top of that, they play a Nuggets team that got hammered at San Antonio the last time these two teams played each other in Denver by a score of 108-91. But, remember, that San Antonio had revenge in that game as Denver first beat this team in SA when the Spurs did not have the services of Parker and Manu. Well, now these two teams face off with the Nuggets remembering that blowout loss on their home court and they will show up with a vengeance. Remember the last team that had revenge against the Spurs? It was the Lakers who consequently won in a comfortable fashion and I expect the same from Denver and George Karl today. The Nuggets have covered 5 of their last 6 games, the Spurs are just 8-21 ATS when playing on 0 days rest and the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 times these two teams have met.
4 Unit Play. Take San Diego State +4.5 over UNLV
We had a nice backdoor cover yesterday as the Peacocks came through for us. I told you that the Peacock wouldn't let me down - lol, although I was born and raised in Alabama, my heritage is from India and the Indian national Bird didn't let us down. As per this game, I could look like a fool after this is all said and done, but I think the Aztecs have a great shot at winning Outright. And, since I believe in dogs that can win Outright and have produced such dogs who win SU at a constant rate year in and year out, there is no reason why I should shy away from this pick. This will be a very close game but San Diego State has been waiting for this game after being swept by UNLV last year. San Diego State is a much improved team that is ranked in the top 30 in many power rankings while UNLV for their many wins is only ranked in the top 45 power rankings. San Diego State to their credit were 10-5 ATS while UNLV is 9-9 ATS this year. San Diego State gets it done by defense as they are allowing opponents to just 59 points per game. Before many sing the praises of UNLV, let me tell you some things about the higher power ranked San Diego State Aztecs. This team has some pop and shouldn't be ignored. After all, this is the same team that lost by just 3 points to St. Mary's on neutral footing, this is the same team that beat top 30 Utah at home by 9, this is the same team that beat New Mexico at home by 5 and lost to BYU on the road by 6. Although UNLV has some big wins such as winning at Louisville on the road to their credit and defeating Utah at home by 10, this team did lose to Colorado State on the road by 2 who is a top 200 team, TCU by 7 on the road who is a top 130 PR team and California at home by 18 who is a top 30 power ranked team similar to San Diego State. Give me the Aztecs here for the upset based on revenge, the better power ranking, the fact that 76% of the public is likely to get buried favoring the home team laying the chalk and Aztecs are 9-2 ATS over their last 9 games.
Re: TUESDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS
4 Star Selection
Akron (-8 ½) over EASTERN MICHIGAN
Eastern Michigan is a horrible team that has won just 1 game this season against a division 1 team and that victory was at home against a Central Michigan team that is nearly as bad as the Eagles. Eastern Michigan is just 4-13 ATS this season and they are still getting too much respect from the oddsmakers, as they have been even worse than normal in 5 games since starting off-guard Solomon Farris was injured (he’s out for the season). I went against Eastern Michigan in a Best Bet winner on Saturday with Miami-Ohio covering as an 11 point road favorite with a 15 point win. The Eagles are now 8-22-1 ATS in 4 seasons under coach Charles Ramsey when facing a team with a winning record and not getting at least 22 points. Akron, meanwhile, tends to play better against bad teams, as the Zips are now 36-9 ATS under coach Keith Dambrot when facing a team with a losing record and not laying 17 points or more, including 11 consecutive spread wins in that role. Akron also applies to a solid 146-61-5 ATS big road favorite situation while Eastern Michigan applies to a negative 4-38-3 ATS subset of a 36-91-5 ATS weak home court situation. Both those angles actually applied to Saturday’s Miami-Ohio over Eastern Michigan Best Bet win and I’ll play them again today given the line value (my ratings favor Akron by 12 ½ points). Eastern Michigan has faced 3 decent teams at home and the Eagles lost those games by 13 points to Oakland, by 22 points to Temple, and by 15 points to Miami-Ohio. Akron, meanwhile, has won by 9 points or more in games against the 4 worst teams they’ve played on the road, beating NC Greensboro, Bowling Green, Youngstown State, and Toledo by an average of 14 points in those road wins. The average rating of those 4 teams is 4 points higher than Eastern Michigan’s rating, so Akron could play worse than normal and still likely win this game by double-digits. This game has the rare combination of multiple situations applying to the same team, team trends applying to both teams that favor the same side and good line value supporting the technical analysis. The Zips have a very good 66% chance of covering at -8 ½ points I’ll take Akron in a 4-Star Best Bet at -9 or less, for 3-Stars from -9 ½ to -11 and for 2-Stars at -11 ½ or -12 points.4-Stars at -9 or less, 3-Stars from -9 1/2 to -11, 2-Stars at -11 1/2 or -12.
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