Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays

Vegas Experts

Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic

Just can't see Orlando losing two straight weeks at home on TNT, so we have no problem laying this short number. In fact, the Magic are 17-3 SU at home this season while Cleveland is 'just' 14-8 SU on the road (unbeaten at home). Orlando is the ONLY team with a better pointspread record than Cleveland and have covered six of the last seven meetings in this head to head series. The Magic are also an impressive 24-9 ATS when coming off a SU win.

Play on: Under

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Jeff Benton

Illinois -1' at MINNESOTA

I’ve hit a snag the last three days with the complimentary selections, as the Kings came up just short of covering the number in Boston last night. We’ll get it turned around on Thursday, as we’ll play Illinois in a virtual pick-em spot at Minnesota.

Both teams enter this game with 17-3 records, including 5-2 marks in Big Ten action. So why aren’t the Gophers (12-2 at home) laying at least a few points against Illinois (2-2 in true road games)? Well, one big reason is because the Illini have won 19 consecutive meetings in this rivalry. Not only that, but they’ve cashed in 15 of those 19 games! That includes three wins and covers last year – 84-60 in Minnesota, 67-58 in Illinois, 54-50 in the Big Ten tourney – when the Illini were in the midst of a down season.

Now, I know that rosters change from year to year in college athletics, so you can’t put too much emphasis on past series history. But 19-0 is pretty damn impressive, and you better believe that both teams are aware of it. Because of the streak, the Illini will likely come into The Barn loose and relaxed, while Minnesota very will could be the complete opposite (tight and nervous).

More than the recent dominance by Illinois in this rivalry, I’m siding with the Illini because I’ve been more impressed with their body of work. Yes, they’ve lost their last two Big Ten road games to Michigan State and Michigan, but they were competitive in both (10-point and six-point losses, respectively). Also, they started league play with a four-point overtime road win at Purdue; they avenged the Michigan loss in a big way at home (66-51); and they’re coming off two easy home wins over Ohio State and Wisconsin by 18 and 7 points.

The Gophers, meanwhile, followed up a four-game SU and ATS winning streak with two losses (at Northwestern, vs. Purdue), then barely got past crappy Indiana (67-63) on Sunday, and they failed to cover in all three games.

Plus, look at the defense Illinois is playing: Their last five opponents have scored 45, 51, 63, 49 and 57 points. Minnesota in its last four has given up 74, 74, 70 and 63 (to Indiana). Throw in the fact that Illinois is 7-1 ATS away from home this season (road and neutral sites), and I’ll back the better team playing better basketball.

3* ILLINOIS

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David Malinsky

Washington State @ Arizona State
PICK: Washington State 

It is most rare when we see a +11 available in a game in which the Total is this low, with 108 being the current offering on the latter. And when we do we are often looking at a complete mismatch, since the favorite is being called on to absolutely dominate the underdog. That is what they are trying to project here, with a market estimate based on this Side and Total that Arizona State is going to score 55.1 percent of all of the points in the game. But this time around we not only have an underdog that brings talent, grit and coaching to the table, but also one that does not mind playing this pace at all. In this one the pointspread is a mountain.

Yes, Washington State is down a bit this season, which is why Tony Bennett has not been in his customary spot on our play list. Blending some freshmen immediately into the rotation can cause some issues, particularly in his intricate schemes. But in seniors Clay Rochestie, Aron Baynes, Caleb Forrest and Daven Harmeling he has guys that has been through the Pac 10 wars, and note that despite opening 3-4 in league play there has only been one loss in double figures. They swept the Oregon schools in their only road outings, and although they took an 0-2 collar vs. Southern Cal and U.C.L.A. in Pullman last weekend, each of those defeats came by a single basket.

Consider how difficult it is to get a margin against the Cougars. They lead the nation in scoring defense at 52.5 per game. They are 5th in field goal percentage defense at 36.9. They do not give the ball away, with only 217 turnovers in 19 games. And when they get a chance to convert at the free throw line they rarely miss, a 77.7 overall, and an even better 83.9 in Pac 10 play (they have made 49 of their last 50). And while Arizona State plays that outstanding zone defense, and has a terrific scorer in James Harden, when Harden can be held in check the Sun Devils bog down on offense. Consider that in 14 of 19 games Washington State has held the opponents leading scorer below his season average, and that in eight of those games he was held to single digits.

This will be an ugly grinder of a game without much pace at all, and with points most difficult to come by.

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==========================================================
-pregame.com total of the day play:


(UNDER - Total Play of the Day)


Spurs: There's no question that Manu Ginobili is the key to San Antonio's success, and you can look no further than last year's loss to the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Ginobili was not healthy in that series and was still recovering from an ankle injury heading into this season that limited him when playing for Argentina in the Olympics over the summer. He has struggled a bit lately, averaging 10 points on 33 percent shooting in the last three games. However, Ginobili was the difference maker in a 106-100 win at Utah on Tuesday, scoring 10 of his 13 points in the fourth quarter. “Manu is an important part of us winning basketball games,” Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich said. “He was aggressive and got to go to the line.”

PROJECTED SCORE: 96 

Suns (-1.5, O/U 199): Shaquille O'Neal seems to have discovered the Fountain of Youth in the Valley of the Sun, as the future Hall of Famer is averaging 22.1 points in his last 18 games. This after a dominating performance against the Wizards on Monday in which he totaled 29 points, eight rebounds and three blocks. Phoenix have won two in a row following that 103-87 victory, snapping a skid of five losses in six games. “I feel like I can play three or four more years,” O'Neal said. “I’ve got a new medical staff that does stuff that I haven’t really had before. I’m dunking, I’m getting up and hanging on the rim and getting techs, and I haven’t felt this good in about two years.”

PROJECTED SCORE: 98

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SPORTS ADVISORS

(12) Clemson (17-2, 6-7-1 ATS) at Virginia Tech (14-5, 7-7 ATS)

Surging Virginia Tech figurers to face a tough ACC test when it plays host to Clemson at Cassell Coliseum.

The Hokies return home after a pair of big road wins, first dealing then-No. 1 Wake Forest its first loss of the season Jan. 21, 78-71 as a 13-point pup, then following up with Sunday’s 88-83 overtime victory at Miami catching seven points. Virginia Tech is on a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS roll, averaging 77 ppg in that span – nearly six points better than its season average – while allowing 69.6 ppg.

The Tigers rolled past Georgia Tech 73-59 on Sunday, narrowly covering as a 13-point home chalk as they bounced back from a two-game SU and ATS skid at the hands of fellow ACC heavyweights Wake Forest and North Carolina. Clemson is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games (4-2 SU), and in the Tigers’ last five outings, they’ve averaged 68.0 ppg – more than 10 points off their season average – while yielding 68.2 ppg.

Clemson has won the last three games in this rivalry, going 2-1 ATS. However, Virginia Tech is 4-2 ATS in the six clashes since the Hokies joined the ACC in 2004. In last year’s lone meeting, Va-Tech lost 70-69 at Clemson, but covered as a 9½-point road ‘dog. The underdog has cashed in all six meetings, and the road team is on a 5-0 ATS tear.

The Hokies are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight Thursday games, but they are otherwise on positive pointspread streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 10-2 in the ACC and 16-5 after a spread-cover. The Tigers are on ATS runs of 5-2 on the highway, 5-2-1 in ACC play and 6-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record, but they also carry negative ATS streaks of 0-4-1 against winning teams and 1-4 after a spread-cover.

The over for Va-Tech is on rolls of 9-2 overall, 6-1 at home and 4-0 in conference games, and the over for Clemson is on runs of 4-0 on the road and 11-5 in Thursday contests. Also, the over is on a 3-0-1 stretch in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


(19) Illinois (17-3, 11-4-1 ATS) at Minnesota (17-3, 8-6-1 ATS)

Illinois goes after its third straight victory when it travels to Williams Arena for a Big Ten contest against Minnesota.

The Illini bounced back from a close loss at Michigan State to post home wins last week over Ohio State and Wisconsin, routing the Buckeyes 67-49 as a 7½-point favorite Jan. 20, then topping the Badgers 64-57 Saturday while pushing as a seven-point chalk. Illinois has won four of its last five games (4-0-1 ATS), giving up no more than 57 points in all four victories and holding two opponents in the 40s.

The Golden Gophers fended off Indiana 67-63 Sunday as a nine-point road chalk, rebounding from a two-game SU skid but failing to cover for the third straight game. For the season, Minnesota has outscored opponents by an average of nearly eight points per game (71.1-63.5), but that gap has narrowed considerably over the last five outings, with the Gophers averaging 70.2 and allowing 68.0.

Illinois has absolutely owned this rivalry the past decade, winning 19 consecutive games and going 15-4 ATS. The Illini are on a 6-0 ATS surge in Minneapolis and they’ve cashed in six of the last seven battles overall, including all three last year when Illinois won 84-60 as a five-point road underdog, 67-58 as a five-point home chalk and 54-50 as a two-point favorite in the Big Ten tournament. The favorite is on a 10-3 ATS roll, and the road team has covered in five of the last six contests.

The Illini are on a 2-7 ATS slide in their last nine Thursday games, but they sport positive ATS streaks of 5-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 against winning teams, 5-1 in roadies and 8-3-1 following a SU win. The Gophers are on pointspread dips of 1-4-1 following an ATS setback and 3-8 at home against teams with a winning road record, but they still carry positive ATS trends of 6-2 at home, 7-2 after a SU win and 7-3 against winning teams.

The over is 9-1 in Illinois’ last 10 Thursday tilts and is on a 5-0 run overall for Minnesota, but the under is on streaks of 4-0 for the Illini overall, 5-2 for the Illini after a SU win, 10-3 for the Gophers at home and 8-3 for the Gophers on Thursday. Finally, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ILLINOIS and UNDER


California (16-4, 11-6 ATS) at (17) UCLA (15-4, 8-10 ATS)

UCLA returns home for the weekend looking to get back on track against instate rival California in a Pac-10 contest at Pauley Pavilion.

The Bruins have lost two of their last three games, including an 86-75 setback Saturday at Washington as a two-point underdog for their third straight pointspread setback. Two days before losing in Seattle, UCLA narrowly held off Washington State 61-59 as a five-point road chalk. For the season, UCLA has averaged 74.7 ppg and given up 60.1, but in the past three outings, the Bruins have dropped to 64.7 ppg and are allowing 69.3.

The Golden Bears topped Oregon 76-69 Saturday to halt a two-game SU skid, but they failed to cover as a heavy 13½-point home chalk in dropping their third straight pointspread decision following an 8-0 ATS run. Cal has outscored opponents this season by an average of nearly 11 ppg (76.4-65.5), but in the past five contests, the margin is barely over one point (71.0-69.6). The team’s last five games were decided by seven points or fewer.

UCLA is on a 7-1 SU roll (5-3 ATS) in the last eight clashes in this rivalry, sweeping three meetings last year (2-1 ATS), including an 88-66 rout laying 13 points in the Pac-10 tournament. However, Cal is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Pauley, and the road team is on a 4-0 ATS run.

The Bruins are on a 1-6 ATS decline at home against teams with a winning road mark, but they are on ATS surges of 13-5 on Thursday and 17-7 coming off a non-cover. The Golden Bears have covered in just two of their last seven Thursday games, but they carry positive ATS streaks of 8-3 overall, 7-1 against winning teams and 7-1 after a SU win.

The over for UCLA is on stretches of 5-1 after a SU loss and 10-4 on Thursday, and the over for Cal is on runs of 18-7 on the highway, 4-1 against winning teams, 7-2 on Thursday, 33-12-1 after a SU win and 21-8 in the Pac-10. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in six of the last eight contests overall and two straight meetings at UCLA.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


(22) St. Mary’s (17-1, 8-5-1 ATS) at (20) Gonzaga (14-4, 9-7 ATS)

Two ranked West Coast Conference rivals square off at the McCarthey Athletic Center, where Gonzaga plays host to red-hot St. Mary’s.

The Bulldogs are coming off a successful Southern California swing last week, ripping Pepperdine 83-69 but failing to cover as an overwhelming 27-point chalk last Thursday, then drumming Loyola Marymount 93-60 and cashing as a 28-point favorite. The Zags have climbed back into the national rankings by winning six straight games (4-2 ATS), starting with an overtime victory at SEC power Tennessee. Over the past five contests – all against WCC foes – they’ve outscored opponents by a whopping 28 ppg (84.6-56.6) while shooting 49.7 percent from the floor.

The Gaels stifled San Diego 65-42 as a 3½-point road chalk last Thursday for their 15th consecutive victory (8-3-1 ATS in lined games). Much like Gonzaga, St. Mary’s is putting opponents away, having won four straight contests by double digits. Over their last five outings, the Gaels are averaging 73.6 ppg, allowing just 51.4 and shooting more than nine percentage points better than their opponents (46.6 percent to 37.2 percent).

These schools split last year’s meetings SU and ATS, with Gonzaga taking an 88-76 decision as a seven-point home chalk last March. In fact, the home team is on a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run, and the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests.

The Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home starts and 4-1 ATS in their last five after putting up 90 points or more in their previous game, but they are also on pointspread dips of 1-5 against winning teams and 1-4 after a spread-cover. The Gaels are in ATS ruts of 1-5 on Thursday and 3-9-1 against winning teams, but they have cashed in five straight road games and are on further ATS runs of 5-0 on the highway against winning teams and 7-3-1 after a SU win.

Three of the last four meetings in this rivalry have cleared the total. But the under for the Bulldogs is on streaks of 8-1 after an ATS win and 6-2 after a SU win of more than 20 points, and the under for St. Mary’s is on tears of 5-0 overall, 5-2 on the road, 4-0 on Thursday and 16-5 in conference play.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GONZAGA


NBA

Cleveland (35-8, 29-14 ATS) at Orlando (34-10, 29-14-1 ATS)

The Cavaliers carry a four-game winning streak and the best record in the NBA into Amway Arena in Orlando for a matchup with the Magic.

Cleveland comes into this one off a 117-110 victory over the Kings on Tuesday, falling short as a 13½-point home favorite. The Cavaliers got 43 points and 11 assists from Mo Williams, while LeBron James turned in a triple-double with 23 points, 11 assists and 15 rebounds. The Cavs have won three straight on the highway (2-1 ATS) and have gone 14-8 (13-9 ATS) away from Cleveland this season.

Orlando rebounded from a two-game slide with Tuesday’s 135-111 blowout of the Pacers, easily cashing as a nine-point favorite. The Magic do it with defense at home, allowing just 90.9 points per game while putting up 101.3. They are 17-4 at Amway Arena this season and 13-8 ATS.

These two haven’t met this season, but Orlando took three of four last year (3-1 ATS), and the Magic have won six of the last eight (7-1 ATS) overall in this rivalry.

Cleveland is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games against the Southeast Division and 1-4 ATS after its last five straight-up wins, but besides that the Cavs are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks that include 36-15 overall, 22-9 against the Eastern Conference, 10-4 as a ‘dog, 41-20 as a road ‘dog and 38-18 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, it’s all positive ATS trends for Orlando, including 20-6 overall, 7-2 at home, 14-6 as a favorite, 19-7-1 after a spread-cover and 12-3 against teams with a winning record.

The Cavaliers are on “under” streaks of 39-19-1 on Thursdays, 10-4-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 when playing on one day of rest. The Magic have stayed under the total in eight of their last 11 home games and eight straight Thursday contests, but they have topped the total in four of their last five against the Eastern Conference and four straight after a day off. Finally, while the under is 6-2 in the last eight series clashes, the over is 10-4-1 in the last 15 matchups in Florida.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO


San Antonio (30-14, 20-23-1 ATS) at Phoenix (25-18, 15-27-1 ATS)

The Suns return to the desert after a six-game East Coast road trip and face their old rivals in the Spurs in an Western Conference showdown at U.S. Airways Center.

San Antonio has won five of its last six overall (3-3 ATS) and just handed Utah a 106-100 beating Tuesday in Salt Lake City, cashing as a one-point road favorite. The Spurs got 24 points each from Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, and Matt Bonner chipped in with 20 points against the Jazz. San Antonio is 13-7 on the road this season (11-9 ATS), having won three of its last four as a visitor.

Phoenix started its road trip on a three-game SU and ATS slide, but salvaged the journey by winning and covering in its final two games, including Monday’s 103-87 victory in Washington as 4½-point road favorites. The two straight covers snapped an 0-7-1 ATS slide for the Suns and marked the first time since early December – and just the third time this season – they covered the number in two straight games.

These two rivals have met twice this season with the road team getting the win and cover in both outings. San Antonio went to Phoenix on Christmas Day and prevailed 91-90 as a 2½-point underdog, paying the Suns back for a 103-98 loss on opening night in San Antonio when the Suns won in a pick-em contest. The Spurs are 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 matchups in Phoenix, and the underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.

San Antonio is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against Pacific Division teams and 6-2 in its last eight on Thursdays, but it is on pointspread slides of 1-8 after a spread-cover 11-23 as a road ‘dog and 1-5 after a straight-up win. It’s nothing but negative ATS trends for Phoenix, including 2-7-1 overall, 1-5 at home, 1-6 after a straight-up win, 0-5 on Thursdays, 1-4 against the Western Conference and 1-5-1 as a favorite.

For San Antonio, the under is riding streaks of 5-1 overall, 41-20-1 on the highway, 13-3 against the Pacific Division, 24-8-1 as a ‘dog, 22-8-1 as a road pup and 19-9 when playing after a day off. The Suns are on “under” stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-2 at home, 7-3 after a straight-up win and 6-2 as a home favorite. In this rivalry, the under has been the play in six of the last seven meetings in the Arizona desert.     

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

DUNKEL

Cleveland at Orlando   
The Magic are coming off a 135-111 win over Indiana and look to build on their 14-5 ATS record after scoring 105 or more points in the previous game.  Orlando is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Magic favored by 7.  Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-4).   
 
Game 701-702: Cleveland at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 122.384; Orlando 129.488
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 7; 201 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 4; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-4); Over

Game 703-704: San Antonio at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 119.079; Phoenix 120.841
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-1 1/2); Under

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jrtips

ILLINOIS vs. MINNESOTA

Illinois is in the Top 25 but hasn't had much success on the road lately but no matter where they played Minnesota they have been vitorious. No. 19 Illinois looks to win its first road game in a month tonight as they go for their 21st straight victory over the Golden Gophers.The Illini (17-3, 5-2 Big Ten) are coming off Saturday's 64-57 win over Wisconsin which was their eighth straight victory at Assembly Hall. The Illini have won 20 straight games over the Gophers whio are (17-3 overal and 5-3 in the Big Ten. Eight of those wins have come at Williams Arena, where the Gophers are 2-2 in league play this season. This is Illinois' longest winning streak in school history over a conference opponent.The Illini went just 5-13 in Big Ten play last season, but managed to sweep the home-and-home series from the Gophers. Illinois also beat Minnesota 54-50 in the conference tournament. Minnesota won Sunday's 67-63 at Indiana, but it may have trouble in the paint against Illinois 7-foot-1 center Mike Tisdale and 6-foot-10 forward Mike Davis. Despite the win, the Gophers dropped from No. 21 out of the rankings as they lost to Northwestern and the Boilermakers in their previous two contests. Minnesota is 1-2 against Top 25 opponents this season all at Williams Arena and the trend will continue tonight when they face a more talented Illinois team they have not beaten since 1999. TAKE ILLINOIS-1

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Rocketman

Elon @ The Citadel
Play: 1* Elon +7

The Citadel is 15-30 ATS since 1997 when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games.  Elon is 7-2 SU overall vs The Citadel since 1997.  Phoenix are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.  Phoenix are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.  Phoenix are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.  Phoenix are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Southern.  Phoenix are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.  Phoenix are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bulldogs are 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.  Bulldogs are 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.  Bulldogs are 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.  Bulldogs are 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.  Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  We'll recommend a small play on Elon tonight!

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GINA

Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic

Cleveland plays tough defense, but it won't stop the Orlando's boys from scoring. LeBron James and crew will have a big task at Amway Arena. The Magic have won 12 of their last 13 games at home and four of the last five contests against the Cavaliers. Orlando is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home, while Cleveland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 on the road. The Magic have covered the spread in seven of the last 8 games versus the Cavaliers. Go with the Magic at home!

Orlando Magic -4


Mr A

Orlando Magic -4½
San Antonio Spurs +1½

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Drew Gordon

Clemson +1 at VIRGINIA TECH

We've made a pretty penny off this Hokies team in recent weeks, including their outright road wins at Wake Forest and at Miami-Florida, but the magic has to end sometime, and I believe that time is tonight. Although they enjoy the home court edge, this is a tough spot against a team that matches up particularly well with them, but read on...

Looking over each team's recent stats, its hard not to like the Hokies, but fact of the matter is, if you've seen both of these teams play, you know the Tigers are the better defensive bunch. Their high-pressure defense will cause havoc for a good, but not great Hokies offense. The Hokies big 3 (Allen, Vassallo, and Delaney) all have commited 52 turnovers or more apiece, so to say they are turnover prone is not a stretch.

On the flip side, although the Hokies offense has been playing great, the Tigers can score with anybody, averaging 81 ppg on 47% shooting on the road this season! While Clemson isn't especially deep, compared to Va. Tech, they have a lot more talent on the bench (after Allen, next best scorer avergaes just 4.3 ppg). This is key because with the run, run, run, Tigers offense, bench play will be critical in this match up.

Finally, there's the letdown factor. I know its tough imagine the Hokies "letting you down" at home, after two big wins, but that's exactly what I expect will happen tonight. Its easy to lose focus after beating the nation's #1 & a strong 'Canes team in back-to-back road games. And believe me, after watching the Tigers destroy Georgia Tech, its clear they got their act together after their loss at North Carolina. In the end, the Hokies sudden surge fizzles tonight at home.

Take Clemson plus the points over Virginia Tech in this college hoops match up.

3* CLEMSON

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Lenny Del Genio

St. Marys at Gonzaga Jan 29 2009 11:00PM
Prediction: St. Marys

In this battle of WCC powerhouses, the line simply doesnt reflect how close in talent these teams actually are. Its not like St. Marys is unranked. Now, they have struggled tremendously here is Spokane, losing 13 straight. Overall, Gonzaga has won 21 of the last 24 meetings between the teams. But often times history has no bearing on present day results. Just look at the Arizona Cardinals. Statistically, these teams are close. Gonzaga averages 79 PPG while St. Marys averages 77 PPG. The Bulldogs have the WCC Player of the Year in Jeremy Pargo, but the Gaels have a star in their own right in Australian Olympian Patrick Mills, who has scored in double figures in every game this season. St. Marys is the better rebounding team. They are also 8-1 ATS on the road coming off an ATS win. Take St. Marys.

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GREG SHAKER

Pepperdine Waves at San Francisco Dons
Play: Over 139

These are two of the worst D Teams in all of the world but they play in a conference that has a lot of Good D Teams. That means that they both have allowed a Butt Load of points, but they both have not participated in most of those games. With the #278 and #285 D Teams out of 341 Division 1A Schools on the court tonight, they should get to enjoy that, and the fact is, both have much better than average pace. Pepperdine especially likes to push the action and is curently ranked in the Top 21% at doing so The last 4 times these two have played, they have eclipsed this posted mark and this is one of the lowest posted totals for this matchup in recent history. Neither is playing San Diego, Portland, Gonzaga, St Mary's to name a few. They are playing each other and each other is poor at stopping the opposition. We should see +120 shots taken and probably much more than that. Reasonable connectivity will give us what we want. Play up to 142.

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