Wednesday Service Plays

Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Wunderdog

N. Illinois at Miami Ohio
Pick: N. Illinois +17

Huskies are much improved from a team that managed just seven wins two years ago and six last year as they have already achieved six this season. Red hawks play ugly, which means defense is the strong suit here. They have only managed to top 70 points on the season one time, so a bushel of points here becomes very appealing. They have averaged under 60 over their last eight, so if the Huskies can find their way into the mid 40s they are going to be inside this number and they have failed to reach 50 just one time this season. Huskies hang around big numbers as they have been 8-3 ATS on the road at 13 or more, while the Red Hawks just 2-7 ATS at home trying to topple 13 or more on the line. Too many points here, and N. Illinois gets the call.

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Chip Chirimbes 

Syracuse vs. Providence
Play: Providence -2

#15 Syracuse (17-4) visits Providence (13-6) in another tough Big East battle. The Friars at an impressive 10-2 at home while the Orange have the same number of road losses two but only three wins. Syracuse has beatup on their non-conference schedule buy has now lost three of four to Big East competition. Take PROVIDENCE!

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Vegas Experts

Washington Wizards at Miami Heat

This has been a low-scoring head to head series to begin with as five of the last six meetings have stayed Under the number, including the previous two this season, which saw just 174 and 181 points scored respectively. Wizards are 26-17 Under this season, the Heat are on a 62-42 Under run at home. Wizards are 8-0 Under in division play and 8-0 Under on the road when the posted number falls between 190 and 199.5. They are 16-5 Under off a loss by 15+ points.

Play on: Under

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Timberwolves +1.5

Minnesota is on fire and it is still getting no respect.  The Wolves have won 10 of their last 12 SU and are on a 13-3-1 ATS Run.  Meanwhile, the Pistons have dropped 7 of 9 SU and ATS.  Minnesota already has a 26-point win over Detroit this season and has taken the Pistons in 8 of the last 12 at the Target Center .  The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog while the Pistons are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Take the Wolves.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Alex Smart

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
PICK: Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors despite of their ugly record on the season are currently playing very hard,and competitive basketball. The Warriors have won 3 of their L/5 games, and in their L/7 trips to the hardwood have lost 3 times, twice by 1 point and once by 2 points, including a 106-105 loss vs the extremely talented Cleveland Cavaliers. So even though they are on the road tonight, must not be over looked against a Dallas team that is playing with a lack of cohesiveness and consistency, and has struggled vs Golden State in the recent past, failing to cover 11 of 15 battles in this series.

Final notes & Key Trends:The Underdog has bitten the man at a 20-8-1 clip in the last 29 confrontations. The Mavericks have failed in 20 of their last 28 at home ATS and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Projected score: Dallas 107 Golden State 105 -Play on Golden State to cover 

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Jeff Benton

OK, I’m done with Maryland. After the Terps laid that colossal egg at Duke on Saturday, I gave them a shot to redeem themselves against Boston College last night and they went out and turned a 16-point second-half lead into a seven-point loss … at home! Despite that loser, I’m still on a 45-28 roll with free plays, and I’ll improve on that mark Wednesday as I back the lowly Kings plus the big points against Boston.

Obviously, there’s no comparing these two squads – at 37-9, the Celtics are well on their way to earning another high playoff seed, while the 10-36 Kings are once again headed for the draft lottery. And certainly Boston more than proved its supremacy against the Kings exactly a month ago, when it went to Sacramento and won 108-68 as a 12½-point road favorite (easily the most lopsided result for either team this season).

However, understand the circumstances leading into that game: The Kings were in the midst of a coaching transition, and the Celtics were coming off a two-game losing streak after 19 straight wins and were looking to make a statement (and they clearly did). This time around, there’s no chip on the Celtics’ shoulder. They’ve won eight in a row and cashed in six straight, and I just don’t see them being motivated to cover this massive impost (which is by far Boston’s biggest spread of the season), particularly with a big road game at Detroit on deck Friday.

Yes, the Kings are in a brutal spot – they’ve lost six straight games; they’re closing out a six-game road trip; and they had to play LeBron and the Cavs just last night in Cleveland. But they didn’t lay down last night at all, losing just 117-110 as a 14-point underdog and playing the Cavs basically dead even for three of the four quarters. Also, the Kings have cashed in each of their last two trips to Boston, including last year’s 90-78 defeat as a 15-point underdog (and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five in this series).

Bottom line: Because of Sacramento’s back-to-back situation, because of what happened in last month’s meeting in California and because the Celtics are on another spread-covering spree, this line is way over-inflated. We’ll take the value and call for a Boston win in the 10- to 14-point range.

3* SACRAMENTO KINGS

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Matt Rivers

For Wednesday take the points with LSU.

Has anybody noticed that Bruce Pearl's Volunteers are just not very good right now? Tennessee burned me in that last game at home as they lost to Memphis and have now dropped three of their last four games in Knoxville after not losing there for years and the lone win came against South Carolina in a non-cover. Something is clearly missing right now as UT mustered a whole 52 points in that last game is just not right.

I cannot say that I fully trust this LSU team on the road as they are fairly mediocre themselves after losing Anthony Randolph to the NBA after last season but the Tigers are capable and should be in this thing throughout. Trent Johnson has his team at 15-4 and even though they have played a bunch of creampuffs and just lost to a really good Xavier team are still feeling good about themselves. Marcus Thornton is a stud and guys like Garrett Temple, Terry Mitchell and others are competent at the very worst.

The Vols are lacking pretty much any confidence right now and until they step on the neck of an opponent are a must go against right now for sure. Actually screw that last step on the neck statement I just said, until they win a game I will gladly go against them in a spot like this.

The Tigers have covered three straight in the series and there is no reason at all why it won't become four.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Craig Davis

I'm going to back Austin Peay as the slight road dog at Eastern Kentucky.

Three things I noticed right off the bat when breaking down this game: First, EKU doesn’t play well in the role of a favorite (1-8 ATS their last nine laying points). Second, they don’t play well versus the number in their conference, covering just 3 of their last 16. Third, Austin Peay covers better on the road than they do at home, bringing the cash in seven of their last eight on the highway.

Austin Peay has beaten EKU already this season and tonight they’re getting points. That's good enough for me as they complete the season sweep.

2* AUSTIN PEAY

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Karl Garrett

Sacramento at BOSTON -17

Talk about a "blowout", you can expect one tonight in Boston, as the lowly Kings come to town after an underdog cover last night at Cleveland.

Sacramento has now lost 6 straight, and tonight's game will be their 4th game in the last 5 days, ALL on the road! That grueling trek is enough to crumble any team, but when you consider the first meeting between these teams this season at Arco Arena produced a 108-63 Celtics slaughter, and when you also consider that the Kings have not topped 78-points in any of their last 3 games played against the C's, you can see why the G-Man is calling for another rout of epic proportions.

Boston is rolling strong once again, winning 8 straight, covering 7 straight, and the Celtics are 22-2 straight up at home, sporting a 15-9 home spread mark.

Man, this one is going to get very ugly, very early.

Blowout of the night in the NBA going on Boston minus the points.

5* BOSTON

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Sports Gambling Hotline

South Florida +17 at LOUISVILLE

This looks like as good a spot as any to grab the bushelful of points, and go with the Bulls to stay semi-close at Louisville tonight.

The Cardinals have tangled with Big East heavyweights Villanova, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, and Syracuse over their last 5 outings, and they do have a home Saturday date with West Virginia up next. You can easily see Rick Pitino's team going through the motions, and comfortably winning this game, but not covering the big impost.

South Florida hasn't been within single digits in the last 4 series meetings, and that includes a 13-point home court loss to the Cardinals earlier this month as the 10-point home dog. A similar final tonight will have us inside this roomy impost.

Every team has a natural letdown spot, and tonight's home date sure looks like that spot for the 'Ville.

Expect Rick Pitino's team to get out in front, stay out in front, but ease up in the closing minutes, thus allowing the Bulls to leave Freedom Hall with the underdog cover.

Play on Da' Bulls!

1* SOUTH FLORIDA

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Ted Sevransky

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
PICK: Golden State Warriors

Dallas has the single worst pointspread record of any team in the NBA at home. If you’ve bet against the Mavs in every home game this year you’ve gone 15-5 ATS with your wagers, cashing at a 75% clip. And there’s no reason to think the anti-Mavs gravy train is coming to an end tonight when the under-rated Warriors come to town.

Golden State got a huge boost with the return of Monta Ellis to the lineup last week, after he missed the entire first half of the season recovering from his offseason moped accident. Corey Maggette is finally healthy. Stephen Jackson is finally healthy. Jamal Crawford could be back in the lineup tonight after missing the last two games with a bad hamstring. With that quartet in the lineup, the Warriors are extremely dangerous offensively, particularly against a bad defensive team like the Mavs.

Dallas got blown off the court against the Celtics on Sunday. They got blown off the court at Milwaukee last Wednesday. They’ve allowed 49% shooting from three point range in their last five games! With defensive liability Jason Kidd unable to contain opposing point guards, a drive and dish team like the Warriors should have all kinds of open perimeter looks. Facing a Warriors team that hasn’t lost a game by more than two points in their last seven contests, look for Golden State to hang from start to finish tonight. 2* Take the Warriors.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

King Creole

ATLANTA HAWKS plus the point(s) vs the New York Knicks

On Monday, King Creole and SPEEDEE and the gang were ON the New York Knicks and they rewarded our faith with an outright dog win over the Houston Rockets. On Wednesday, we will be 'fading' New York as they are now in a prime Play AGAINST situation.... the same one that we used against Houston on Monday. The line in this game is pretty manageable. 2 weeks ago, New York would NOT have been a home favorite versus a Hawk team that's 26-18 SU on the year. But 5 straight ATS wins (and two SU losses for Atlanta) has obviously changed the mindset of the oddsmakers.

371-7 ATS so far in 2008/09: All NBA Conference underdogs (HAWKS) playing any opponent that's off a SU underdog win (like New York). ROAD teams in this situation (HAWKS) have gone a very impressive 29-12 ATS. If our doggie is off a DD SU loss, the results improve to 12-2 ATS (HAWKS). And if these doggies are actually playing off back-to-back SU and ATS losses (like ATLANTA is), the results improve to a PERFECT 5-0 ATS so far this season.

Don't be afraid to fade the Knicks despite their current got ATS run (5-0 ATS last 5 games).So far in the month of JANUARY, NBA home favorites playing off 5 or more ATS wins in a row (New York) are 1-6 ATS.... and a PERFECT 0-5 ATS in the last 3 weeks.

Atlanta comes off a 'bitch-slappin' road loss to division rival Miami (down here in sunny South Florida)... by a final score of 95-79 on Sunday. No worries....So far in the 2008/09 season, NBA road teams are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS when playing off a SU divison loss of 15 or more points (HAWKS).

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Ben Burns

Buffalo Sabres @ Calgary Flames
PICK: Calgary Flames

The Sabres won big at Edmonton last night. However, they haven't been strong when playing the second of back to back games and Calgary is an even tougher venue. Indeed, while Edmonton is now 11-12 (11-9-3) at home, the Flames are a much stronger 17-8 (17-5-3) here at Calgary.

While the Sabres are 3-7 (-5.2) the last 10 times that they played the second of back to back games, the Flames are a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they played after having three or more days worth of rest in between games. With the Flames at 6-2 vs. teams from the East, consider laying the price with the home team.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

ROCKETMAN

Chicago @ Anaheim 
Play: 1* Chicago -120

Blackhawks are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.  Blackhawks are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Blackhawks are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road favorite.  Blackhawks are 4-1 in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  Blackhawks are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.  Blackhawks are 23-9 in their last 32 games as a favorite.  Blackhawks are 11-5 in their last 16 Wednesday games.  Ducks are 2-5 in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.  Ducks are 2-6 in their last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Ducks are 3-9 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.  Ducks are 2-9 in their last 11 games as an underdog.  Ducks are 1-5 in their last 6 Wednesday games.  Ducks are 1-6 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Ducks are 1-7 in their last 8 games following a win.  Ducks are 0-4 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.  We'll recommend a small play on Chicago tonight! 

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Stephen Nover

Toronto Raptors @ New Jersey Nets
PICK: Toronto Raptors

Toronto is finally healthy and its rotation is back to normal with Jose Calderon and Jermaine O'Neal back in the lineup. Everybody has returned to their normal position. The Raptors are a team worth keeping an eye on.

The Raptors have scored 113 points versus Sacramento and 114 against Chicago since Calderon returned.

The Raptors have been idle since Sunday. New Jersey is playing for the first time at home following a 1-3 road trip that ended with a disappointing and embarrassing loss at Oklahoma City.

New Jersey is just 8-15 against the spread at home, getitng luke-warm crowd support.

The Nets have internal and morale issues. Lawrence Frank could be the next coach fired. He continues to have conflicts with Vince Carter and Devin Harris, who were a combined six-for-29 from the floor against the Thunder. Carter and Harris are a combined 17-for-61 shooting from the floor in their last two games against the Raptors, which occurred on Dec. 12 and Dec. 15.

The Nets hold a 2-1 series lead on the Raptors this season. The Raptors are motivated not to finish 1-3 against the Nets, a team they really dislike for knocking them out of the playoffs in Round One two years ago.

The Nets will be missing injured Yi Jianlian, which reduces the team's versatility, and Stromile Swift, the team leader in field goal percentage.

New Jersey hasn't broken the 100-point barrier in its last seven games. Its scoring is way down in this seven-game stretch averaging 91 points compared to 99.8 points during the previous five games.

This is a one-unit play for me.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

GREG SHAKER

Pittsburgh Panthers at Villanova Wildcats
Play: Villanova +3.5

This is a very good matchup spot for the Wildcats because they are one of the teams in the Big East who can go to the boards as well as their opponent tonight. They proved how lethal they can be just the other night at South Florida dominating that phase of the game 41-26. They have been especially good at doing that right here at home with a rebound edge of right at 6 per game. This team also plays very good D, allowing just 38% shooting, and 58 points per contest on this floor. And they have stepped that up a notch. There is not much more I can say about this one and so these brief thoughts will be it. At 3-3 in the conference, the Wildcats need this game as bad as can be and I expect them to come out hungry to get it. I would play this one at pick'em but happy to have the small spot.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Jack Jones

Take Miami Heat -8.5 over Washington Wizards

Take the Heat over the Washington Wizards in Miami tonight. The Wizards are one of the worst teams in the NBA on the road at just 3-19 this year. The Heat are just finishing up a 4 game home stand, on which they are already 3-1. The Wizards are currently on a 3 game slide, and they've dropped 10 of their last 12 overall. Miami has 4 straight wins against the spread against teams with a losing record, while Washington has lost 5 of their last 6 games against the spread on the road. The Wizards have covered in 7 of their last 8 at Miami, but this is one of the worst teams Washington has had in recent memory. I'll take the Heat at home.


Take Wake Forest +1.5 over Duke

Wake Forest can certainly hold their own against the nations newly-crowned #1 team, the Duke Blue Devils. Last season, with the exact same starting rosters, the Demon Deacons defeated Duke by a final score of 86-73 at Wake Forest. It was considered a huge upset last season with the Blue Devils losing by 13 points as 8 point favorites, but this year it won't be quite a shocking. It's obvious that both teams have improved, but the edge still leans toward Wake on their home court. They have edges in shooting percentage, rebounding, and scoring offense that can't be overlooked. Both teams have put forth impressive defensive efforts this season, with Wake giving up 62 points per game at home this season and Duke giving up the same amount on the road. It will be a close game for sure, but I think the Demon Deacons walk way with the victory over Duke.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Larry Ness

UAB @ Tulsa
PICK: Tulsa 

UAB enters tonight's contest with Tulsa at 13-7 overall and a 3-2 record in C-USA play. Tulsa owns the exact same record. UAB is coming off a 38-point home win over Rice in which the 6-5 Robert Vaden (19.0-5.6) posted a game-high 21 points, while the Lawrence Kinnard (14.6-9.1) scored 15 points and collected seven rebounds. PG Delaney (16.5-4.6-3.1) is the team's third double digit scorer and he's joined in the backcourt by Georgia transfer Toney (7.5-3.5) with the 6-8 Crawford (7.4) rounding out the starting-five. The Golden Hurricane made 48.0 percent of their attempts from the floor in Saturday's impressive eight-point road win over UTEP. The 7-0 Jerome Jordan (14.0-9.6) scored 21 points and hauled in 14 rebounds to lead Tulsa in the win, while leading scorer Ben Uzoh (15.6-4.3-3.7) tallied 17 points. Hurtt (8.1) and Andrews (7.4) join Uzoh in the backcourt, with 6-5 swingman Reese (9.0-4.0), the 6-6 Wheatley (5.5-4.0), the 6-10 Idlet (4.0-3.1), the 6-9 Mitchell (2.1-3.3) and the 6-7 Richard (1.4-2.6) helping out Jordan inside. UAB opened with three straight road wins but has since dropped all five of its road games, covering just once. Tulsa leads C-USA in scoring defense allowing 59.7 PPG and could be poised for another late-season run (went 15-4 to end last year, including taking the inaugural CBI tourney). Lay the points with Tulsa.

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

maddux sports

Today's Free Pick is Memphis Tigers -14.5

==========================================================

NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS -

FREE NBA PICKS
Atlanta @ New York
Time: 7:35 PM EST
Pick: Atlanta +2

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Charlies Sports
nba .sacramento+17 @ boston, the sacramento kings roll into boston tonight
for what should be a blowout for the home team but the kings will keep it closer
than the experts predict, kings cover+17.

======================================================



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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

Tony Karpinski

Toronto Raptors vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: New Jersey Nets +2

The Nets have taken two of three from the Raptors this season and they'll make it three of four with this one. Look for big things from Nets' point gard Devin Harris who is averaging 21.5 points and 6.4 assists per game. New Jersey is back at home after four-games on the highway that saw them go 2-2 ATS but lose at Oklahoma City on Monday. That was an embarassing loss and they'll bounce back tonight.
Toronto has won two in a row, but that's only after losing seven straight (2-4-1 ATS). The Raptors got a 113-97 home win over the Kings on Sunday as nine-point favorites.We're going to play the Nets at home in this one to get the job done Wednesday Night.

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